Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[K1052]

I don’t think there is a western missile to replace s300 that isn’t patriot.

Western countries don’t do long range SAM because we plan to own the sky.

The Navy might have the relevant munition. RIM-66 should fit in the S-300's launch tubes. Making it function is another story but Raytheon would take a crack at it. They did already make RIM-7 and AIM-7 work on the Buk apparently.

 

[Racan]

I don’t think there is a western missile to replace s300 that isn’t patriot.

Western countries don’t do long range SAM because we plan to own the sky.

There is SAMP/T with Aster 30 (and one system is in Ukraine, though I don't know if it's operational yet) but realistically only Patriot is in meaningful numbers.

 

[Racan]

Interesting article.

https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/what-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-need-to-do-to-win/

 

[Perknose]

Interesting article.

https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/what-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-need-to-do-to-win/

Oh fucking My! Very dispiriting to read.

My one countervailing thought echoes that which I have when I read about how effed up parts of American society and/or our military/industrial complex is . . . that other countries, especially our foes, are at least as messed up. So, in light of this article, the saving grace for the Ukrainians in this "Special Military Operation" may well be the Clown College Russians!

 

[Perknose]

Interesting article.

https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/what-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-need-to-do-to-win/

Otoh. The gulf between your article and this article makes me realize, once again, how, from high up here in the peanut gallery, I am at the mercy of what I read.

From my linked WaPo article:

"When Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive finally begins, the fight will be led by brigades armed not only with Western weapons but also Western know-how, gleaned from months of training aimed at transforming Ukraine’s military into a modern force skilled in NATO’s most advanced warfare tactics."

 

[K1052]

Lot of reports of stepped up Ukrainian attacks on the southern front line and missile strikes in southern occupied Ukraine. Seems like whatever is coming is getting warmed up.

 

[K1052]

Attacks on Belgorod oblast continue. Russian MOD is surely trying not to devote a lot of resources here given how thin they are stretched but I don't know how viable that is going to be.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1665375351265001473

 

[kage69]

Doesn't seem like the intermittent spring rains have reversed the drying trend thanks to warmer temps. Ground might not be perfect for armored cav assaults but it could be a lot worse. Looks like Eastern Ukraine gets a lower pressure system moving in Thursday too, but dry and sunny till then. How much more shaping I wonder.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed this assault will show us Biden followed Britain's lead on longer/sharper teeth again, we just didn't hear about it until it was used, like with MALD.

 

[K1052]

I'm keeping my fingers crossed this assault will show us Biden followed Britain's lead on longer/sharper teeth again, we just didn't hear about it until it was used, like with MALD.

We don't always advertise what we are sending to be sure or we just make it really general. Like when they said "anti-radiation missiles" everybody just assumed we'd found some old Kh-28s or 58s to send them not that we'd gotten the AGM-88 mounted on Ukrainian aircraft. Same with M142/M270 munitions, they just say "more ammunition" not what models of rockets we are providing. ATACMS, if provided, would also fall under that description.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Just in case you had any doubts ....

U.S. Politics

GOP Presidential Candidate Calls for 'Major Concessions' to Putin​

Vivek Ramaswamy said he doesn't view the Russia-Ukraine war as a "top foreign policy priority" for the United States. ...

 

[Zor Prime]

Iranian drones depleting Ukrainian air defenses.

So like, not sure how much the SAMs cost to take out $20k-ish Iranian drones but holy shit that's a lot of money. Pariot missiles cost 3-4 million a pop according to a quick search. 3-4 million to take out approx $20K USD. Good grief. Hopefully Ukraine can take out the Iranian drones on the cheap, supposedly they're sometimes able to be taken out with small arms fire if they're loitering.

 

[fskimospy]

Iranian drones depleting Ukrainian air defenses.

So like, not sure how much the SAMs cost to take out $20k-ish Iranian drones but holy shit that's a lot of money. Pariot missiles cost 3-4 million a pop according to a quick search. 3-4 million to take out approx $20K USD. Good grief. Hopefully Ukraine can take out the Iranian drones on the cheap, supposedly they're sometimes able to be taken out with small arms fire if they're loitering.

This is definitely a problem, although Gephards and cannon based defenses seem like a good and more cost effective way to eliminate them.

 

[rommelrommel]

I think the majority of shahed are being taken down by relatively cheap systems.

 

[K1052]

Iranian drones depleting Ukrainian air defenses.

So like, not sure how much the SAMs cost to take out $20k-ish Iranian drones but holy shit that's a lot of money. Pariot missiles cost 3-4 million a pop according to a quick search. 3-4 million to take out approx $20K USD. Good grief. Hopefully Ukraine can take out the Iranian drones on the cheap, supposedly they're sometimes able to be taken out with small arms fire if they're loitering.

A PAC-2 interceptor is 2M or less and they are not using them to down Shaheds. Those jobs are falling to less expensive missile systems and ground based guns. Ukraine has a lot of very good radars at its disposal now so they can see the slow drones coming and dispatch appropriate units to intercept.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Iranian drones depleting Ukrainian air defenses.

So like, not sure how much the SAMs cost to take out $20k-ish Iranian drones but holy shit that's a lot of money. Pariot missiles cost 3-4 million a pop according to a quick search. 3-4 million to take out approx $20K USD. Good grief. Hopefully Ukraine can take out the Iranian drones on the cheap, supposedly they're sometimes able to be taken out with small arms fire if they're loitering.

Remember, it's not 3-4m to destroy a shitty drone. It's 3-4m to save whoever or whatever the drone was going to destroy. Even a single life saved is worth it, and I'm willing to bet there's a lot of critical infrastructure that costs more than that to replace.

 

[K1052]

Just in case you had any doubts ....

U.S. Politics

GOP Presidential Candidate Calls for 'Major Concessions' to Putin​

Vivek Ramaswamy said he doesn't view the Russia-Ukraine war as a "top foreign policy priority" for the United States. ...

Dunning-Kruger on line one, Mr. Ramaswamy.

 

[you2]

Dunning-Kruger on line one, Mr. Ramaswamy.


View attachment 81364

Yea dream on if you think this will have any impact on Russia/China relationship. Might as well as finish the job now while Russia is weak than wait for them to rebuild and repeat.

Furthermore - he fails to understand why contries are asking to join Nato; it is not because they want a larger/stronger NATO; it is because they want to be protected from aggressor (i.e, Russia); NATO doesn't recruit countries (tho they must be please to get finland/sweden since they actually project power); countries ask to join nato.

 

[Jaskalas]

Iranian drones depleting Ukrainian air defenses.

So like, not sure how much the SAMs cost to take out $20k-ish Iranian drones but holy shit that's a lot of money. Pariot missiles cost 3-4 million a pop according to a quick search. 3-4 million to take out approx $20K USD. Good grief. Hopefully Ukraine can take out the Iranian drones on the cheap, supposedly they're sometimes able to be taken out with small arms fire if they're loitering.

That's why one of two things must happen.
1: This war must end quickly by overwhelming and decisive force. Our direct attacks on Russian forces to dislodge them entirely.
Or...
2: Ukraine must have enough means to attack and BOMB Russia, that Russia quits the effort while something is still left standing and not a burning pile of heap.

In other words, this war is too much of a stalemate, that it is based on attrition... and not everything is looking good for a war of attrition. The calculus must be changed.

 

[kage69]

I think the majority of shahed are being taken down by relatively cheap systems.

Yep. Didn't we just see a video of Ukrainians taking out a Lancet with small arms fire? Lancets might not have as nasty a payload as the Shaheds, but they are more difficult to intercept. Helps when you don't sound like a moped with no muffler.

We sent Ukraine about $23million worth of APKWS Hydras back in mid May I believe. Cheap 70mm rockets that can be anti drone, anti bunker, anti armor, anti personnel with 1m precision and at a 1/3rd of the weight of a Hellfire. Germany sent some too I think. Along with the Gepards 35mm salvos and MANPADS, plus the occasional old MiG hunting down Shaheds and cruise missiles, I think they've got a decent handle on it, all things considered. Of course they could use more. So what if a few Patriots and/or AMRAAMs have been used on cheaper targets, big deal, this war is still the best value going for fascist regime removal and as others have said - the real value is in the lives saved.

 

[K1052]

huh

https://twitter.com/x/status/1665314615205457920

 

[rommelrommel]

That's why one of two things must happen.
1: This war must end quickly by overwhelming and decisive force. Our direct attacks on Russian forces to dislodge them entirely.
Or...
2: Ukraine must have enough means to attack and BOMB Russia, that Russia quits the effort while something is still left standing and not a burning pile of heap.

In other words, this war is too much of a stalemate, that it is based on attrition... and not everything is looking good for a war of attrition. The calculus must be changed.

Strategic bombing is never gonna work against Russia.

I hate to say it, but I’m at the point where I believe that the USA wants this to drag out for another couple years to both effectively bleed Russia but to also not leave Ukraine too powerful either.

 

[RnR_au]

Multiple twitter users have been posting this news today;

https://twitter.com/x/status/1665519840671698945

Too early if its a 'shaping operation', something more substantial, or just Russian BS to be able to have a report they can send upstairs on their glorious victories.

Another twitter thread on this event;

https://twitter.com/x/status/1665486315607977985

 

[RnR_au]

Internally, there is also a bit of movement amongst the Russian factions;

https://twitter.com/x/status/1665447005047386112

On the Grozny reference;

https://twitter.com/x/status/1665320960675790849

And Wagner captured a Russian Army officer and 'encouraged' him enough to admit on video that he opened fire on Wagner forces. Video with translation here.

Seems Wagner is fighting everyone.

 

[RnR_au]

Ok maybe its popcorn time... multiple movements on the front.. maybe?. Since the Ukrainians are not going to say anything, we are kinda reliant on the Russians for now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1665591052768620544

From here (seems the twitter plugin don't like certain characters in the name of the poster?)

May the fog of war stay thick and soupy and may all the surprises be Ukrainian ones!

 

[cytg111]

Just in case you had any doubts ....

U.S. Politics

GOP Presidential Candidate Calls for 'Major Concessions' to Putin​

Vivek Ramaswamy said he doesn't view the Russia-Ukraine war as a "top foreign policy priority" for the United States. ...

Its like MTG if she could speak good.
Thats so dumb I suspect he is a foreign agent.



Also

Arms contract shows Iran has sold Russia ammunition for Ukraine war, says security source

An informed source has claimed the document is "100% authentic". It shows various types of ammunition worth just over $1m (£800,000).

news.sky.com

Lets find some ways to fuck Iran up. Fuck that place and its degenerate leadership.