Ukraine back at fabricating losses and posting them to Russian telegram channels again.
Shit's gettin real now.
The chef says execute Shoigu and Gerasimov
*prepares kettlecorn*
Should we do a dead pool?
Hmm. Audience of one. As @K1052 points out, this is Putin's way. So the question becomes, who else could knock off Shoigu and Gerasimov? Come late fall, fingers will be pointing in every direction.Shit's gettin real now.
The chef says execute Shoigu and Gerasimov
*prepares kettlecorn*
Should we do a dead pool?
Water to Crimea is a none issue as Crimea did not get water from the Dniper since the 2014 invasion until recently.
Understood. My point is militarily. Water from that perspective is a non factor. Critical to Crimean agriculture, absolutely but not advantageous militarily except in a very round about way. (See below)This specifically was indeed a huge expensive problem for the Russians. Agriculture in Crimea collapsed and they had to train water over plus rationing. Now I generally expect the Crimean reservoirs to be mostly full but they'll only last so long before this happens again. There was a reason one of the first things they did was turn the canal back on.
It appears one of the main axis of UKR advance is on the line Orikhiv>>Tokmak>>Melitipol. If so, it will render any RU forces west of the line untenable and likely force their withdrawal to Crimea.
As for the dam destruction, it is not out of the question UKR (or other "assistance") is responsible. Now before the UKR fapboys get aroused, I believe based on what little we know it is RU who is responsible.
So why RU? What do they gain? By blowing the dam, they render a forced crossing of the Dniper very difficult. If they believed UKR was going to force such a crossing, it would make sense tactically to blow the dam. Otherwise, IMO RU would have no other advantage. Water to Crimea is a none issue as Crimea did not get water from the Dniper since the 2014 invasion until recently.
So why UKR and what do they gain? By blowing the dam, they secure their west flank freeing forces for the main effort on the line above. Or possibly additional support in a secondary front around Bakhmut/Lyman/Kremmina. The nuclear plant is not at risk as their cooling ponds can supply plenty of water for months to come. They lose a hydro plant but with the comprised electrical grid, could manage without as they have with the numerous disruptions since the war began.
At any rate, this appears to be the expected offensive and should be no surpise where it appears to be happening. I wouldn't be surprised to see fighting in Poloni and Vasylivka in the near future to secure flanks on the drive to Melitipol
All arm chair generalship of course and likely wrong in some respects. But what the heck, what else is this forum for but to put out some useless drivel.
Or... Russia intended to use it in a more advantageous way (blow it during a major offensive involving a crossing of extremely expensive western tech, cutting the advance in half) and fucked it up, detonating it early.Understood. My point is militarily. Water from that perspective is a non factor. Critical to Crimean agriculture, absolutely but not advantageous militarily except in a very round about way. (See below)
But let's take it a bit further. If water really is that important to RU, then blowing the dam would be problematic. With no water from the Dniper, they will have to revert to road and rail transport for some of their water supply. Transport that can be interdicted once UKR controls much of Kherson Oblast assuming their offensive is succesful and one of their goals is to liberate that territory.
With that, it is even more advantageous for UKR to have blown the dam looking at the long view when UKR wants to recover Crimea. An oblast starved of water and other goods due to interdiction makes conquest that much easier.
Again, speculation here, just fun doing some arm chair guessing.
Certainly possible. A UKR crossing of the Dniper as their primary advance was highly unlikely. However, as a follow-on once the main axis oof advance had achieved its initial objectives is possible. Once those primary objectives had been reached, as I mentioned earlier RU would have no choice but to withdraw. A crossing by UKR at Kherson City then would make great tactical sense. RU blowing the dam could have been in the hope of delaying or even inhibiting that secondary advance giving RU forces more tiome to withdraw.Or... Russia intended to use it in a more advantageous way (blow it during a major offensive involving a crossing of extremely expensive western tech, cutting the advance in half) and fucked it up, detonating it early.
A rumour I saw on twitter is that a drunken Russian General gave the order at 2AM. None of the Russian forces on the banks of the Dnieper were warned. From the satellite of the flooding I believe most of the Russian fortifications and their mined areas on the left bank are mostly compromised.Or... Russia intended to use it in a more advantageous way (blow it during a major offensive involving a crossing of extremely expensive western tech, cutting the advance in half) and fucked it up, detonating it early.
Seems a little early for this level of dismay but...
That Ukraine would be stockpiling PGM’s of all sorts is so glaringly obvious even at this juncture it’s remarkable that Russians would still be surprised by this.
Again this is proof that Russia is out of capabilities, if they could counter things like this they would. Yes, they can intercept some HIMARS deep strikes because they’ve set up air defence in their rear areas. They probably don’t want much forward as then stuff like Excalibur comes into play and they can’t really counter that.
War is about forcing dilemmas on your opponent and Russia can be forced into them because they simply don’t have adequate counters to the tactics that Ukrainian resolve and western tech enable.
This dynamic is a feature not a bug for Putin. The underlings fighting amongst themselves is beneficial to his continued rule. Any of those guys bumping each other off is likely over the line though.
I'm sorry to say but this looks like a major fuck up on part of the Ukrainian operators. How in the hell was the drone able to fly above the radar undetected?
Ukraine's Prized IRIS-T Air Defense System Attacked By Russian Drone In Video
The advanced truck-mounted TRML-4D radar the Russian loitering munitions look to have targeted may be the only one Ukraine has received.www.thedrive.com
The more resolute Ukraine and the west are the less appealing invading Taiwan looks.
Russia kinda fucked their “friend without limits” here.
I’m going to treat this as speculation till we have confirmation. That footage could be faked without much difficulty these days.I'm sorry to say but this looks like a major fuck up on part of the Ukrainian operators. How in the hell was the drone able to fly above the radar undetected?
Ukraine's Prized IRIS-T Air Defense System Attacked By Russian Drone In Video
The advanced truck-mounted TRML-4D radar the Russian loitering munitions look to have targeted may be the only one Ukraine has received.www.thedrive.com
I guess it was not operational at the time and was supposed to be “hidden” in the foliage.
Yup... white truck? In Ukrainian summer? Foreign vehicles are repainted from my understanding? It could be a fake model trying to attract attention.I’m going to treat this as speculation till we have confirmation. That footage could be faked without much difficulty these days.
The colour does look strange, I hope you’re right and it’s only a decoy.Yup... white truck? In Ukrainian summer? Foreign vehicles are repainted from my understanding? It could be a fake model trying to attract attention.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06...-step-closer-to-joining-ukraine-war/102452394Kyiv has assured the White House that it would not deploy second-hand Australian warplanes into Russian airspace if dozens of the retired F/A-18s are transferred to Ukraine.