There is a different view... from everyone's favourite Russian commentator Girkin;Am I wrong to think this now looks like a it will be very long war? Russia won't collapse, I think. The Wagner stunt was the best chance and Putin's state worked around it. Now they have a reason to mobilize further.
Am I wrong to think this now looks like it will be a very long war? Russia won't collapse, I think. The Wagner stunt was the best chance and Putin's state worked around it. Now they have a reason to mobilize further. The Russian people seem to want the war prosecuted successfully (that'll be hard). Ukraine doesn't appear likely to collapse.
But neither side has really moved the front since last November while the monthly casualty estimates for both sides remain high. Don't you think it'll just be a meat-grinder for years to come? Maybe it'll simmer down to a mere boil at some point. But I don't see Ukraine giving up their legal, just cause. And I don't see Russia being forced to the table. Even if Putin dies, even if leadership changes drastically, the anti-Putin parties are chauvinists too.
Ukraine is still a country where four hundred thousand men reach fighting age every year. Do you really think the losses are that severe?No it will not be a long war. The problem Ukraine has is before the war started, there were 3 Russian men for every 1 Ukrainian man. Once the war broke out, people started fleeing the country(many of them men) and that ratio is now likely 5 to 1. Secondly, Russia called for a partial mobilization back when the war started and concluded it. Ukraine has called for a general mobilization the day the war started and it has never ended.
And now your seeing videos on social media of men being kidnapped and thrown into the back of vans, men with no hands getting draft notices, etc…it’s a total disaster.
They will likely run out of men before running out of weapons.
They will likely run out of men before running out of weapons.
Here's what Ukrainian journalist Yury Butusov has to say about the matter:Whats going on with Sgt Markus Valerii, he's come out to complain and asked to be demoted.
Some thoughts on the conflict in the 47th Brigade
1. The general reason: significant losses in a short time, difficult conditions for breaking through the enemy's echelon defense, the lack of coordination of the brigade in the combat situation, and the lack of combat experience of the majority of servicemen. Here you have to take on your part of the responsibility for the situation, and that is difficult.
2. What I saw personally in April 2022: the acting deputy commander of the brigade, 26-year-old I. Shalamaga, at the beginning of the war, was the company commander of the 30th brigade, to which 29-year-old V. Markus joined voluntarily after the beginning of the invasion as a sergeant, they quickly became friends and worked together. Brigadier General of the 30th O. Zinevych achieved the creation of the 47th battalion, of which he appointed Shalamaga as a commander. That is, in the beginning, Shalamaga recruited the popular Marcus into the battalion, but then Marcus's popularity became one of the important factors why the battalion was decided to deploy into a regiment and a brigade.
3. Whose work is this? The 47th mechanized brigade was created by the decision of the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhnyi to break through the enemy's defenses. To implement the project, the Zaluzhns engaged 28-year-old Brigadier General O. Sak - one of the best combatants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who was selected with a certain logic for the breakthrough brigade, and who was entrusted with a difficult task. Markus created a fund to help the brigade - it is fair to note that other volunteer funds, including "Come Back Alive", participated in providing for the brigade. At the same time, Markus became not only the chief sergeant, but also the face of the brigade, attracted a significant part of people and carried out the selection, including thanks to a personal communication channel with the leadership of the Armed Forces. Marcus felt his own responsibility for the state of affairs in the brigade, not only as a master sergeant, but also as a public figure.
4. Formally, the time to create a brigade was more than that of other ordinary infantry brigades of the Armed Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Ukrainian National Army. But on the other hand, this time was not enough to adjust the brigade to perform such a difficult task of the breakthrough that was set. The transfer of a large number of new complex military equipment did not require speeding up, but on the contrary, additional time for its development, repair and practice of tactics. If there was time to gradually bring the brigade into battle to begin with in more stable areas of the front, there would be an opportunity to correct the deficiencies in the combat situation. But there was no time for this.
5. I believe that the insults in Marcus's report about Shalamaga are unacceptable. First, Shalamaga had an impeccable combat record in past positions. Secondly, Shalamaga was publicly and positively evaluated very recently by Marcus himself, so to make such a sharp U-turn one needs to provide arguments. The report should primarily be the basis for decision-making, and the offense shifted the emphasis not on the necessary systemic decisions, but on personal conflicts. Shalamaga's offense looks like an attempt to oppose himself and shift the public responsibility, which was previously borne jointly, to one person.
6. Markus's words about "the lack of will of the brigade command to protect the interests of the military unit before the higher command" refer, obviously, to the order of use of the brigade, which led to significant losses in very difficult conditions. And there are reasons for analyzing the situation, and the question must be raised, and for the death and injury of people, of course, they ask from the one who brought a significant part of the people to the brigade with his statements and interviews. In human terms, this is an understandable reaction to the suffering of fellow human beings. And here there is an obvious allusion to the actions of the corps command, which practices micromanagement. Marcus, as well as Sak and Shalamaga, repeatedly risked themselves during these battles on the front lines. But can the brigade command "have the will to protect the unit from the higher command" if the brigade command must carry out orders to break through with available forces? Wouldn't it be more logical to jointly look for means of influencing the same "higher command" so that there is no need to "defend" against it? Especially if there is an opportunity to convey an opinion to the president and the chairman himself?
7. War is an academy with daily exams, and it is necessary to objectively establish the truth in order to finally begin to learn and draw conclusions from our own experience. If someone were to analyze and report on the scale of problems and errors in the deployment and application of, for example, the 115th mechanized brigade in early 2022, or some other brigades of the reserve corps, TRO brigades, and the cost of these errors, then in the order of application and planning actions of the newly formed brigades in 2023, changes would finally be made, and mistakes would not be repeated. Improvisations where the order of application is necessary lead to scandals, because apart from a scandal, it is impossible to solve systemic problems in our country, even in spite of direct connections with top managers, as we see in this case. I would really like to finally have a post-operational analysis mechanism up and running. So that the state leadership receives data through several channels, where enemy losses and our losses and gains are discussed exclusively on the basis of verified information - video, photo, map, responsible persons... I don't know what other high-profile scandal is needed for awareness that war is a competition of systems and order.
A bit more on this:Ahh excellent! Remove all the officers that actually cares about their troops. Those kinda thoughts smells like NATO thoughts...
Ivan Popov, commander of the 58th Army of the Russian armed formations, currently in Zaporizhzhia, who was removed from his position earlier today says that Ukrainian artillery and missile strikes are causing significant casualties to the occupiers holding defence.Explaining in an audio message, Popov says he delivered a damning report about the state of Russian counter-battery fire directly to Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov which resulted in his immediate dismissal.In a four-minute audio message, Popov talks about betrayal from the most senior military leadership, echoing the sentiment expressed by Wagner mercenaries:"A difficult situation with the leadership emerged. It was a choice between remaining silent and afraid and saying what they wanted to hear, or calling things for what they are. In your name, in the name of all perished comrades-in-arms, I didn’t have the right to lie. Hence I named all the problems that exist today in the army regarding operations, supply. I pointed the attention to the most important tragedy of the modern war - the lack of counter-battery fire, lack of artillery reconnaissance stations, and mass casualties and injuries of our brothers from enemy artillery.I also raised a number of other issues, expressed them to the highest levels, did it openly and very brutally. Due to this, the seniors likely felt some danger in me and instantly, in one day, put together an order to the Minister of Defence and got rid of me.As many commanders of regiments and divisions said today, our army was not broken through the front, but our most senior commander hit us in the back, thus treacherously beheading the army in the most difficult period."
When you go on Twitter does your profile say "State Sponsored Media" ?No it will not be a long war. The problem Ukraine has is before the war started, there were 3 Russian men for every 1 Ukrainian man. Once the war broke out, people started fleeing the country(many of them men) and that ratio is now likely 5 to 1. Secondly, Russia called for a partial mobilization back when the war started and concluded it. Ukraine has called for a general mobilization the day the war started and it has never ended.
And now your seeing videos on social media of men being kidnapped and thrown into the back of vans, men with no hands getting draft notices, etc…it’s a total disaster.
Not to mention they are being forced into mine ridden open fields with zero air support.
They will likely run out of men before running out of weapons.
Yup. Their front lines might be a little fragile.Sounds like the Russians have a bit of a man power issue if they cannot rotate units out of the front lines after fighting that long, you need to give them rest
.As many commanders of regiments and divisions said today, our army was not broken through the front, but our most senior commander hit us in the back, thus treacherously beheading the army in the most difficult period."
'you didn't kill me, it was lag'.Yup. Their front lines might be a little fragile.
I found this bit interesting from the quote that Racan posted above;
Smells a little like the Germans after WW1. If I remember right, they convinced themselves that they didn't lose, but the army was betrayed. Maybe a similar narrative is being played out here. The Kremlin generals will get the blame. Putin will retire with his billions, and everyone's favourite chef will officially become part of the ruling elite.
So long as Russia knows the only thing keeping Ukraine out of NATO is by staying in Ukraine ... yeah.Am I wrong to think this now looks like it will be a very long war? Russia won't collapse, I think. The Wagner stunt was the best chance and Putin's state worked around it. Now they have a reason to mobilize further. The Russian people seem to want the war prosecuted successfully (that'll be hard). Ukraine doesn't appear likely to collapse.
But neither side has really moved the front since last November while the monthly casualty estimates for both sides remain high. Don't you think it'll just be a meat-grinder for years to come? Maybe it'll simmer down to a mere boil at some point. But I don't see Ukraine giving up their legal, just cause. And I don't see Russia being forced to the table. Even if Putin dies, even if leadership changes drastically, the anti-Putin parties are chauvinists too.
So long as Russia knows the only thing keeping Ukraine out of NATO is by staying in Ukraine ... yeah.
Ukraine is still a country where four hundred thousand men reach fighting age every year. Do you really think the losses are that severe?
They aren't.
The idea that Ukraine is going to run out of men (or that any country with significant population will) is some really pathetic cope. People made the same argument in Vietnam and look how that turned out.
Should I post the videos of blind men and men with missing hands showing their draft notices?
These videos purport to show Ukrainian MP successfully rounding up draft dodgers.Should I post the videos of blind men and men with missing hands showing their draft notices?
Russia is claiming the f-16 is a nuclear threat since it can carry nuclear weapons - but doesn't this make cars and other passenger planes nuclear threats ?
Not really, the F-16 is a capable nuclear delivery platform unlike those other things. Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, for example, depends on F-16s for delivery.Russia is claiming the f-16 is a nuclear threat since it can carry nuclear weapons - but doesn't this make cars and other passenger planes nuclear threats ?
Only 58% of Russians responding that the worst days lie ahead? This seems quite positive, for Russians.The Russian public seems to be aware that their country is losing and things are only going to get worse from here. I guess they're smarter than our resident tankies.
If I remember right there's a Russian saying that goes something like 'today is an okay day. Worse than yesterday, but better than tomorrow'.Only 58% of Russians responding that the worst days lie ahead? This seems quite positive, for Russians.