Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,035
29,947
146
Even if this were accurate, and I don’t think it is, that doesn’t answer my question. What benefit accrues to Putin for faking a mutiny?

Putin didn't fake a mutiny imo. Why are you asking this? It's certainly not something I would ever suggest.

To me it was all real, but a big mixture of general Russian incompetence and desperate shuffling of pieces to make sure Putin ends up on top in the end. He certainly still looks stronger than Yeltsin, don't you thing?

I definitely think this harms Putin, and he will hopefully be fading in the near future. The only thing I am pointing out is that you continue to try to analyze Russia and Russians from your very western perspective, which has always been wrong and any historian or Russian analyst will tell you this.

What you and I think appears as weak is not how the average Russian will see it. At least, do not underestimate their capacity for delusional self-assurance. In the end, it only matters that their delusions keep the same kind of despots in power.

I also don't understand why you think what I am saying isn't accurate. Do you continue to insist that looking at Russia the wrong way is still the correct thing to do? Can you explain why that is?
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,035
29,947
146
My take away as well. The cook's got enough money/siloviki on his side he's protected, it's the only way he wasn't disappeared or locked away in Lefortovo. Putin is very much still on thin ice.

Russians care how they look to the outside world, Putin cares. Look at them boil away over their African summit being a total embarrassing flop. There are easier less humiliating ways to conduct purges, and this has been anything but standard OP for Putin and the Kremlin lately. Those artisanal choppers and the guys in them that got smoked by Wagner, that's not ruse fodder. Not when you're running out of things during an active invasion.

A lot of them do--and they all fled Russia back in February-March, 2022. The country is so completely fucked for generations right now.

Imagine that the only people left in Russia are complete MAGAT types of illiterate despot-worshiping sociopaths. That's all they're left with. And Russia is like 1000 times poorer than some of the worst of our own MAGAT territory in the US.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,809
7,835
136
Can't make this stuff up:
If they capture Ukraine, then it would be true. After Russia kills all the Ukrainians who said otherwise. And moved hundreds of THOUSANDS of Russians into Ukraine to take their land. Then the "people" of Ukraine would accurately endorse Putin.

Russia knows the outcome of the war if we do not stop them by force.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,853
13,341
136
I've wondered for over a year now why Belarus isn't more involved in the war.

This AP article makes a good point about pinning things on Belarus and taking some heat off of Russia itself.

If that actually does pan out it has been very, very slow to come to fruition. I think Belarus ends up in the mix before everything is said and done. Putin has placated Luka by delivering nukes to Belarus, who to Luka provides some security assurance because you don't attack a country that sports nuclear weapons. You just don't. Nobody does. Nobody is going to. Everybody understands this.

If that article turns out true at all, Putin could behave very badly behind Belarus and if Prigozhin really is in that tweet above he's completely in on basically taking over Belarus from behind the scenes in conjunction with Putin. But you wouldn't see it coming, because Wagner marched on Moscow. Because you have people asking on forums why would Putin permit appearing weak and ineffectual, lol.

But hey man, I'm no fortune teller. We'll find out won't we.
If Putin was this kind of chess player with this level of fine grained control over the pieces, I put to you that the war would have actually lasted the two days it was supposed to.

He is scrambling.

Pensioners are getting called up for duty in the void that Wagner left behind. Wagner took Bahkmut, not regular Russian forces. Regular Russian forces are a joke. As 1.5 years of meatgrinding is evidence of.
Nope. 7D chess not found. Just an evil prick. With power.
 
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you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
5,875
1,070
126
If Putin was this kind of chess player with this level of fine grained control over the pieces, I put to you that the war would have actually lasted the two days it was supposed to.

He is scrambling.

Pensioners are getting called up for duty in the void that Wagner left behind. Wagner took Bahkmut, not regular Russian forces. Regular Russian forces are a joke. As 1.5 years of meatgrinding is evidence of.
Nope. 7D chess not found. Just an evil prick. With power.
Well.... don't forget that Wagner success was in part to brutality; i.e, the use of prisoners as meat/distraction to allow the fighters to make ground.... Ignoring the humanity of the situation it was really quite clever after all not many of the Russian regular population will mourn their loss. The regular army is trying to imitate this success story of the Wagner but i suspect they lack the raw number of prisoners willing to be used as meat as the prisoners have gotten wind of how they are being used.
 
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uallas5

Golden Member
Jun 3, 2005
1,467
1,621
136
Don't think this was posted here yet but the BBC was able to interview a Wagner officer about the mutiny. Some of the points I found interesting:

  • They didn't know what was happening and were told very little even after it started:

"Early in the morning on 23 June they got the call to join a column of Wagner fighters leaving Ukraine. The order came from a Wagner commander who Gleb is reluctant to name for security reasons, but who was acting on orders from Prigozhin and the Wagner Command Council.
"It's a full deployment," he was told. "We're forming a column, let's move out."

Gleb says no-one was told where the column was heading, but he was surprised when he realised they were moving away from the frontline."

He swears as he bluntly says he didn't have a clue. "We learned what was happening from Telegram, just like you did."


  • I didn't realize our favorite Russian Nazi was not only still in the picture but was part of the mutiny leadership. I don't think he has been mentioned in the aftermath either:

"At the same time as Prigozhin was in his meeting, there was another column of Wagner fighters on the move.
Gleb confirms media reports that this column was led by Wagner founder Dmitry Utkin, a former special forces officer who is rarely seen in public."


  • The officer confirms both how little the regular Wagner troops think about the convicts and how brutal Wagner punishes ANYONE who disobeys:

"As the day went on, pictures of what was happening in Rostov were beamed around the world. People were surprised to see local residents and even local journalists apparently smiling and chatting to some of the normally tight-lipped Wagner fighters occupying their city.

"It was the ex-cons," says Gleb, referring to the many serving prisoners or convicts conscripted into Wagner last year. "Nobody told them not to, nobody cares about them."
For established fighters like Gleb, who were hired long before the war in Ukraine, the rules are much more clearly understood.

He told the BBC that back in the spring, they had been told by the senior command that anyone who spoke to the media would be "nullified", ie killed. Several former Wagner fighters have told us the same thing."


 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
47,751
36,549
136

They want to move the work out of Poland with whom Rheinmetall has a problematic relationship. Ukraine is a large customer who has the potential to be an enormous one so they want to get as many feet in that door as possible. They'll probably have to transfer tech and partner with the state arms conglomerate for new builds of their various products but they don't have a lot of choice since the Koreans will make that deal any day of the week once the war is either over or simmered down.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,035
29,947
146

well shit, if anything they will try to move into Latvia or Lithuania first, which I certainly hope not. It would be hilarious if they try to start shit with Poland. As someone said in this thread earlier, the Pols are absolutely itching for a good time, and not that I think they would sit idly by, either, if Wagner tries to move on their neighbors.

Still, NATO is NATO wherever they think they can go. Good luck, assholes.
 

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,752
5,509
136
Would Wagner dare attack Poland?
I think the Poles are secretly hoping.


It could cause some internal NATO issues:

Poland: We are invoking article V!
NATO: You already wiped Wagner out, and conquered Belarus. In less then 12 hours. What is left for us to assist you with?
Poland: Russia?
NATO: um.
Poland: We have a tank column 150 km from Moscow.
NATO: what?!!
Poland: We copied Prigozhin and just bribed the checkpoints.
NATO: $#%^@#$ How come nobody knows about this?
Poland: We didn't post it on Telegram? It's ok, the Russians don't know either.
 
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KMFJD

Lifer
Aug 11, 2005
29,876
44,926
136
with the unreliability of twitter and not being able to follow threads without being logged in, nitter is nice alternative , even better with this addon


in related news i saw this, Russian troops must not like these either

 

RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
1,974
4,821
106
Some speculation is that Wagner will moon light as Belarusian border guards and cause troubles on Poland's border, maybe even increasing the inflows of immigrants, maybe even smuggle themselves into Europe via being immigrants. Explosions at European ammo and tank factories could be a risk. Not sure if Europe have stationed armed guards at these facilities.

Edit: The other speculation is that Russia is about to do something pretty bad that will piss the EU off, maybe a tactical nuke launched from Belarus. Wagner troops in the West will give pause to any retaliation that EU might have in mind. Will certainly make any response more complex.

Russia is running out of options. Maybe they are thinking about playing a wild card or two.
 
Reactions: Drach
Mar 11, 2004
23,217
5,676
146
Some speculation is that Wagner will moon light as Belarusian border guards and cause troubles on Poland's border, maybe even increasing the inflows of immigrants, maybe even smuggle themselves into Europe via being immigrants. Explosions at European ammo and tank factories could be a risk. Not sure if Europe have stationed armed guards at these facilities.

Edit: The other speculation is that Russia is about to do something pretty bad that will piss the EU off, maybe a tactical nuke launched from Belarus. Wagner troops in the West will give pause to any retaliation that EU might have in mind. Will certainly make any response more complex.

Russia is running out of options. Maybe they are thinking about playing a wild card or two.

Speculation by whom? Russian bots on social media? Cause most of that sounds like fantasy shit random dipshits on message boards would say.

Russian wild cards won't work out well for them (it basically never has, but would especially not do well here). Hell, I'd say there's a higher chance of the CIA faking that shit to justify us doing something to curb stomp Wagner out of existence for good, basically put a bounty on the head of every person that claims association. And say rewards are open to Russian military personnel. You'd basically immediately have chaos on the Russian side.
 
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rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
4,407
3,177
146
Yeah, the idea that Belarus would fuck around with Poland in some quasi-deniable way and hope that Poland will play by Marquess De Queensbury rules and not just push their shit in seems too dumb to be real.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,809
7,835
136
The other speculation is that Russia is about to do something pretty bad that will piss the EU off, maybe a tactical nuke launched from Belarus. Wagner troops in the West will give pause to any retaliation that EU might have in mind. Will certainly make any response more complex.
Nothing complex about it.
If Minsk launches a nuke, you nuke Minsk.
 
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