Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[GodisanAtheist]

Careful what you wish for... Vlad dying means the war stops and Russia continues its decline into irrelevance or Vlad dying means someone competent takes over, cleans house, and picks up the crusade with smarter and more achievable goals...

I'd rather see Russia decisively defeated on Vlad's watch, so the next guy can start with a clean slate and work on Russia rather than everyone else.

 

[cytg111]

Careful what you wish for... Vlad dying means the war stops and Russia continues its decline into irrelevance or Vlad dying means someone competent takes over, cleans house, and picks up the crusade with smarter and more achievable goals...

Lets roll those dices…

 

[dainthomas]

I normally don’t wish ill on people but …

“I’ve never wished a man dead, but I have read some obituaries with great pleasure.”

 

[Jaskalas]

Fortress Avdiivka is at risk of Russians breaking through the north flank.
Ukrainians had to flee the high ground, and have been pushed back to the rail line.

This latest push has cost several thousand Russian lives and a couple hundred armored vehicles.
Ukraine appears to fall back under enough pressure. Whether Russia is prepared to sustain those losses, well, they can if they are willing.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Fortress Avdiivka is at risk of Russians breaking through the north flank.
Ukrainians had to flee the high ground, and have been pushed back to the rail line.

This latest push has cost several thousand Russian lives and a couple hundred armored vehicles.
Ukraine appears to fall back under enough pressure. Whether Russia is prepared to sustain those losses, well, they can if they are willing.

Russian gains have trended toward 'correction' since this phase of the conflict began. Let's see how long conscript forces hold.

 

[kage69]

Careful what you wish for... Vlad dying means the war stops and Russia continues its decline into irrelevance or Vlad dying means someone competent takes over, cleans house, and picks up the crusade with smarter and more achievable goals...

I'd rather see Russia decisively defeated on Vlad's watch, so the next guy can start with a clean slate and work on Russia rather than everyone else.

Usually I would agree, but Putin kicking the bucket doesn't change the fact that Russia is diplomatically isolated, has a piss poor, gutted military and is currently watching the economy spiral the drain. Trying to crank Putin's fantasy to 11 just isn't in the cards, for anyone. Doesn't matter what thug controls the Kremlin, Russia is fucked.

Without Putin Ukraine will at least talk to Russia. There is no cause to discuss anything with a genocidal butcher who doesn't honor agreements or treaties, Putin's gleeful war crimes made sure that's never going to change.

I think the odds are better this is bullshit rather than a legit close call, but I hope I'm wrong. Personally I'd love for Putin to die, I just wish it could be at the hands of a Ukrainian mob. In front of a film crew.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Ukraine converting sidewinders into SAMs.

FT- A recent success was to convert redundant US air-to-air AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles into surface-to-air missiles — an area of critical need given Russia continues to launch attacks on towns far from the front line. “Those [AIM-9] missiles were out of operation,” said a senior Ukrainian official in reference to a batch of that type supplied to Ukraine. “We fixed them. We found a way of launching them from the ground. It’s a kind of self-made air defence.” Those repurposed projectiles would help “get us through the winter” when Russia is expected to bombard Ukraine’s energy infrastructure to plunge the country into darkness, the official said, adding that this was not a long-term solution, however.

Ukraine’s race to build its own arms industry

Kyiv is converting US missiles for new uses and prioritising joint ventures with western companies

www.ft.com

 

[K1052]

If we're buying another year with all this improv we really should also be providing the systems and permission they need to end the war on Ukraine's terms to take advantage of it.

 

[Muse]

“I’ve never wished a man dead, but I have read some obituaries with great pleasure.”

Evidently often mistakenly attributed to Mark Twain. It actually seems like something he could have said, but it doesn't have his brand of wit. I think it more likely this (found on reddit):

“All men have an emotion to kill; when they strongly dislike someone they involuntarily wish he was dead. I have never killed anyone, but I have read some obituary notices with great satisfaction.” — Clarence Darrow

It's also here, with some more really juicy ones:

Clarence Darrow Quote: “All men have an emotion to kill; when they strongly dislike someone they involuntarily wish he was dead. I have never ki...”

“All men have an emotion to kill; when they strongly dislike someone they involuntarily wish he was dead. I have never killed anyone, but I have read some obituary notices with great satisfaction.” — Clarence Darrow quotes from QuoteFancy.com

quotefancy.com

 

[Dave_5k]

Fortress Avdiivka is at risk of Russians breaking through the north flank.
Ukrainians had to flee the high ground, and have been pushed back to the rail line.

This latest push has cost several thousand Russian lives and a couple hundred armored vehicles.
Ukraine appears to fall back under enough pressure. Whether Russia is prepared to sustain those losses, well, they can if they are willing.

Yeah, its not good. Here's a rough view of ~10 days ago vs. ~1 day ago, Ukrainians have retreated further behind the rail line in NE, Russians pushing to or even past it - which is same high ground that Avdiivka is at.

And gives Russians elevation to fire down at last remaining supply/retreat line out of Avdiivka. The gap from complete encirclement is only 7-8km now, Russians have pushed lines here 2+km over past 2 weeks. And if Russians can take former Ukrainian defensive lines at rail and reinforce, will be very hard to push back out.

 

[RnR_au]

Interesting read on Russia's airforce and its condition.

Russia’s Air Force 'eating into' aircraft lifespans, with no easy solution - Breaking Defense

“When it comes to the Russian VKS all you can say sometimes is ‘thank God for shoddy maintenance,’” a NATO-nation military aviation analyst told Breaking Defense.

breakingdefense.com

 

[K1052]

Yeah, its not good. Here's a rough view of ~10 days ago vs. ~1 day ago, Ukrainians have retreated further behind the rail line in NE, Russians pushing to or even past it - which is same high ground that Avdiivka is at.

And gives Russians elevation to fire down at last remaining supply/retreat line out of Avdiivka. The gap from complete encirclement is only 7-8km now, Russians have pushed lines here 2+km over past 2 weeks. And if Russians can take former Ukrainian defensive lines at rail and reinforce, will be very hard to push back out.

View attachment 87724View attachment 87726

If the Russians are willing to take 10s of thousands of infantry casualties of course a lot is possible. Though so far the AFU has only done some moderate reallocation of resources to this area. If they reinforce more heavily Russian progress will slow again and get yet more costly. Vulnerability to a significant counter attack is also an issue.

 

[Zorba]

If the Russians are willing to take 10s of thousands of infantry casualties of course a lot is possible. Though so far the AFU has only done some moderate reallocation of resources to this area. If they reinforce more heavily Russian progress will slow again and get yet more costly. Vulnerability to a significant counter attack is also an issue.

With how much the USAF hates the A-10, I am shocked we haven't given a lot of them to Ukraine. I assume we could put HARMs on them. I think they'd really help out here.

 

[fskimospy]

With how much the USAF hates the A-10, I am shocked we haven't given a lot of them to Ukraine. I assume we could put HARMs on them. I think they'd really help out here.

From my understanding the conventional wisdom is they would not be survivable in the anti air environment.

 

[K1052]

From my understanding the conventional wisdom is they would not be survivable in the anti air environment.

They would make excellent SDB trucks. I think they can carry 18 at a time.

 

[Zorba]

From my understanding the conventional wisdom is they would not be survivable in the anti air environment.

I know that was the thought when people still thought the S400 was amazing, but not sure if that changed since the S400 has proven to be weaker than originally thought. Plus the lack of air power from Russia.

I'd think HARMs on A-10 would also help eliminate some of the anti-air environment as well.

Really I wish we could just send in the USAF and smack these fucktards around.

 

[JTsyo]

If the Russians are willing to take 10s of thousands of infantry casualties of course a lot is possible. Though so far the AFU has only done some moderate reallocation of resources to this area. If they reinforce more heavily Russian progress will slow again and get yet more costly. Vulnerability to a significant counter attack is also an issue.

Wonder if the UAF would be willing to give up some land to have the Russian continue to push while killing so many Russians. They might give up if no progress is made but if they keep creeping forward, they might just keep throwing warm bodies in like in Bakhmut.

 

[K1052]

I know that was the thought when people still thought the S400 was amazing, but not sure if that changed since the S400 has proven to be weaker than originally thought. Plus the lack of air power from Russia.

I'd think HARMs on A-10 would also help eliminate some of the anti-air environment as well.

Really I wish we could just send in the USAF and smack these fucktards around.

Block 60 F-16s with the HTS and HARMs would be far better.

 

[kage69]

I know that was the thought when people still thought the S400 was amazing, but not sure if that changed since the S400 has proven to be weaker than originally thought. Plus the lack of air power from Russia.

I'd think HARMs on A-10 would also help eliminate some of the anti-air environment as well.

Really I wish we could just send in the USAF and smack these fucktards around.

S400 is still formidable, it just wasn't really designed for intercepting small drones and GMLRS/ATACMS projectiles. Against 4th gen aircraft and helicopters it is still very much a threat.

If memory serves you cannot launch AGM-88s from an A-10. Given the intended target you typically want something that can move faster too, a hog would not make for a good weasel. But you get that with the F-16, plus all three HTS attack modes.

Systems aside, Ukrainian pilots themselves are in too short supply to put them in A-10s. Too many decent missiles out there.

 

[Zorba]

S400 is still formidable, it just wasn't really designed for intercepting small drones and GMLRS/ATACMS projectiles. Against 4th gen aircraft and helicopters it is still very much a threat.

If memory serves you cannot launch AGM-88s from an A-10. Given the intended target you typically want something that can move faster too, a hog would not make for a good weasel. But you get that with the F-16, plus all three HTS attack modes.

Systems aside, Ukrainian pilots themselves are in too short supply to put them in A-10s. Too many decent missiles out there.

Yeah, didn't think about the speed issue with being a good weasel.

 

[zinfamous]

I know that was the thought when people still thought the S400 was amazing, but not sure if that changed since the S400 has proven to be weaker than originally thought. Plus the lack of air power from Russia.

I'd think HARMs on A-10 would also help eliminate some of the anti-air environment as well.

Really I wish we could just send in the USAF and smack these fucktards around.

maybe our pilots can wear Ukrainian uniforms and we can put mustaches on our planes, and the Russians will never now?

I know it's pretty much the exact same plan that Trump once proposed, but maybe let's consider it here?

 

[you2]

maybe our pilots can wear Ukrainian uniforms and we can put mustaches on our planes, and the Russians will never now?

I know it's pretty much the exact same plan that Trump once proposed, but maybe let's consider it here?

While you are joking the scary thing is Trump was dead serious; of course if we followed his advice everyone would drink disinfectant to purge the body of all diseases.

 

[Ajay]

Yeah, didn't think about the speed issue with being a good weasel.

IIRC - The A-10 doesn't have the power to bug out fast if the mission needs to be aborted. Particular flight paths are real important against modern SAMs - they have weak points in terms of radar coverage (can be terrain) and there are ways to put pressure on the missile's flight envelope - that said, it still sucks. It's better to send in LO drones that have enough power to driver a radar (with some sort of beam forming) to send back a strong return radar signature (like that of an F-16). Then the enemy SAM operators keep their radars on instead of just flashing them on and off. Way better for the actual fighters playing the anti-radar role. All we lose are a few drones (IDK, a few hundred thousand $$s) instead of expensive jets and extremely valuable pilots. Worth it.

 

[K1052]

The Russians are trying to mine the Odessa approaches via aircraft. I guess they decided they didn’t want to risk their remaining Kilos.

AFU likely to try intercepting future attempt however so not a walk in the park for the VKS either.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1717230038905688148

 

[gdansk]

I have said before: the problem is not simply Putin.
A majority of Russians are supportive of this revanchism in general. Putin dying in his sleep would not solve a thing. Any Russian leader who ends this war by giving up "Novorossiya" will be shot like Walther Rathenau.