Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,537
13,109
136
That's an excessively liberal approach to the problem of Evil. People who repeated rape, murder and torture are inherently evil. We have this silly modern pop-sci approach to psychology where the perpetrator is transfigured into the victim. Yes, they may have been terribly traumatized as a child - that still doesn't excuse their behavior. To do so is to make an error which will result in history repeating itself in some sort of horrific way.
Objectively that is backwards. If you dont understand the root cause you are helpless to mitigate it from happening again in the future. Ideally you fight and kill your enemy not cause you hate him but because you understand him.
What side of the fence is evil? Depends. Who writes the history book?
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,875
10,300
136
Well I guess the Russians having failed to successfully mine the port approaches are now willing to missile neutral shipping.

Ukraine has thus far refrained from attacking civil shipping headed to Russian ports. The Black Sea fleet does not remotely have the assets to protect their shipping lanes from USVs.

Put NATO flags on the ships and be done with it. The Samoli pirates learned you don't fuck around with a ship with a US flag on it. I'd love to teach Russia the same lesson.
 
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RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
1,820
4,449
106
Rumour... but sounds plausible...

Russia is trying to get back parts of defence systems it had exported in an attempt to restock for its invasion of Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal has reported.

In an article published on Wednesday, the US-based newspaper reported – citing three people with knowledge of the encounter – that Russian officials visited Cairo in April and asked Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to return more than 100 engines from Russian helicopters.
...
According to the newspaper, Moscow has also contacted Pakistani, Belarusian and Brazilian officials to try to recover engines and transport helicopters its forces lost to Ukrainian defences early on in the war.
Source
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,273
8,198
136
Put NATO flags on the ships and be done with it. The Samoli pirates learned you don't fuck around with a ship with a US flag on it. I'd love to teach Russia the same lesson.

But if they put NATO flags on it the owners maybe wouldn't benefit from the tax advantages and weak labour and safety laws that go with a Liberian registration. Such a dilemma - missile attacks vs having to obey labour laws...
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
Objectively that is backwards. If you dont understand the root cause you are helpless to mitigate it from happening again in the future. Ideally you fight and kill your enemy not cause you hate him but because you understand him.
What side of the fence is evil? Depends. Who writes the history book?
I guess I didn’t notice why you made your original point, because we are talking about two different things. My bad.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,019
38,496
136
Range goes up with air launch. Ukraine patrols offshore with TB2s. They need 150-200km of reach out and touch for AD and Anti ship.

Always, but have they put Harpoons on Sukhois now too? I suppose I wouldn't be too surprised after the SeaSparrow stuff. Might be easier to just give them NSM.

Yeah one of the few remaining uses for TB2s now as I understand it, I hope they have all they need but I doubt it. Bayraktar did open up shop in Ukraine though didn't they.

Keeping my fingers crossed we get to see how that ATACMS anti ship mode works. Better yet, that swanky TLAM on a truck the Marines have now. That'd be a fun surprise for a Russian surface element. Thinking they're all safe as houses, +300km "out of reach," then all of a sudden tomahawks show up. Wonder how many Neptunes they have at this point, more than double the range of a Harpoon with those.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,831
34,771
136
Hmm, how'd that deal go south - Russia wanting to pay in Rubles? Or Brazil not wanting to step on the feet of the Western alliance (NATO/EU).

Probably mostly self interest. Brazil needs to buy equipment from European suppliers and doesn’t want to get sideways with their governments. Especially for what most likely is an IOU that will never be paid.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,019
38,496
136
I was curious if there's been any news on if the VDV wunderkid Teplinsky survived that StormShadow strike back on the 1st. Had a quick look and hello there...

Still not known if "Denpr Group" boss Mikhail Teplinksky is dead, but seems Ukraine may have smoked three other colonels in that strike.

"The strike at the HQ reportedly killed the Airborne Forces Command deputy heads, Colonel Vadim Dobryakov and Colonel Alexander Galkin, and the head of the operational management department of the Airborne Forces Headquarters, Colonel Alexey Koblov."


I guess time will tell, could use some corroboration for telegram scuttlebutt though, even if the AFU's already very impressive culling of Russian colonels makes this far from unrealistic. If the Kremlin is embarrassed I think they got him. I hope they did. He wasn't a muppet, supposedly had enough brains and merit it saved him from his Wagner connections during Putin's reckoning. That HVTitis is a bitch though, worse than covid, polonium tea or a swift gust of gravity.
 
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RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
1,820
4,449
106
Hardware problems in Russia. Very much ties into @Roger Wilco 's post above;

Regional Russian airlines have about 100 An-24 and An-26 passenger airplanes, their average age is 50 years.

Representatives of the companies have called for extending the technical life of such airplanes because there is nothing to replace them with.

According to the Russian authorities' plan, by 2030 a quarter of domestically produced passenger airplanes should be written off, but in reality this will happen by 2028.

It is also reported that there are problems with maintenance of An-2 airplanes, as the engines for them are produced in Poland.
Source

New bogus narrative from Russian sources: the Kremlin is increasing armaments production and can rebuild everything. FAKE:

1. The Russians lack many of the necessary subsystems that came from the West and will be sanctioned for years.

2. The actual production rates of things like T90s, for example, are a small fraction of Kremlin claims,

3. The Russians have no hard steel alloys for barrels.

4. Most of the electornics in the KA-52, for example, were Western and are not available now in Russia;

5. Russia has a fraction of the manufacturing capability of the Soviet Union, as analogies are worhtless,

6. The diversion of production to defense is already bleeding the rest of the Russian economy dry (they lack skileld workers across many sectors);

7. Whatever they build will be bled by corruption, embezzlement and kickbacks. See e.g. the 1.5 million missing winter uniforms story. (a problem likely to grow in a desperate economy).
Source

Russia will still be able to produce a small number of tanks per month, but they won't be good, or last long in the field. As per #3, the barrels won't be worth alot and I believe there is also a big issue with bearings.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,537
13,109
136
Some of you guys said something like this would never happen, Ukraine joining the EU right?

What's the coin beyond "Inching closer"? "Miling closer"?

 
Reactions: balloonshark

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,806
29,557
146
A summary of the left bank situation in one picture;

View attachment 88636
Source

The yellow explosion above is where Ukraine is trying to gain a second beachhead.

this is a very serious incursion, and sort of...end of war type of maneuver if it works out and UK can keep that 25km range.

I mean..."we can't bring MOTORS within 25km of the line!" is a really big deal. No art, no IFV. And UK still without an airforce.

damn.

I mean...just give them everything. do it yesterday. Just smoke out this corridor and let them fly straight into Crimea. This shit is taking way too fucking long for no reason. Putin is playing his hand all over the globe right now. Just fucking wipe this little turd out in his own back yard--as we all now know is easily fucking possible if you just have the will to give the capabilities to the people that will fucking do it right now--and get on with shit.

You want to toss water on Israel's little genocidal aims? fucking grant some proper air power to UK over the next two weeks, and watch all the simmering start to trickle about in that region of the world.

Just watch the various distractions gain immediate attention again, one by one.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,831
34,771
136
This represents a climb down of sorts. If all we need is an "auditor" appointed to get more aid that isn't a problem. It would also be a good idea to utilize the revenue thrown off of seized Russian assets to at least partially offset the aid expenditure. Spending Russian interest money to pay American workers for American products is not something people are going to have an issue with politically. Between the US and the EU Ukraine could net tens of billions per year in economic and military assistance that would not cost taxpayers in either place anything.

 
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trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,678
7,172
136
Grasshoppers gotta Frag by hand now?

Russian Soldiers in Crimea Beat Commander to Death Before Fleeing: Ukraine

The troops from Russia's 20th Motorized Division attacked their commander in Simferopol, Ukrainian intelligence said.


One of the reasons why about a month into basic of which I still don't know why I was singled out, was told to report to the CO's office and offered an opportunity to go to OCS. I turned down the offer because an older friend of mine who was at that time a Lt. in the Marines and was already in 'Nam let me know in terms that would get by the censors that there was an extreme shortage of O types over there and that the rate of KIA's for them was a lot higher than the enlisted in both services.

And besides, at that age, my priority was to hit the surf, charm the chicks and come what may.

I believe without a doubt in my mind that the KIA rate of Russian officers in Ukraine due to their being murdered by their own men must be much higher still given their culture featuring a brutal primitive style of leadership and a lack of consideration for their grunt level troops.

edit - added in second paragraph.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,019
38,496
136
Grasshoppers gotta Frag by hand now?

Russian Soldiers in Crimea Beat Commander to Death Before Fleeing: Ukraine

The troops from Russia's 20th Motorized Division attacked their commander in Simferopol, Ukrainian intelligence said.

Another dead Russian colonel, no way. Took him six days to die too. No wonder it's common for commanders to keep themselves scarce; they don't want to get stomped or catch that 155mm football. I heard of lot of stories about fresh meat showing up and theres just no one to report to. Mobiks with no clue aren't briefed or given any intel and then sent into combat. "Go that way."

100+ colonels, like 12 generals and 1 admiral. What a shit show. Their army is almost as big a joke as their navy. It's only going to get worse for them too, man are they in for a rough winter.
 
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