Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
1,820
4,449
106
Ukraine seems to also have had some success with their strikes against Russian oil infrastructure.
It appears that the strikes against Russian energy terminals such as those in Ust-Luga or Tuapse are yielding first results. Russian gasoline exports have dropped sharply by 37% in January.
...
The refinery industry took another setback when Lukoil's NORSI plant and Russia's fourth largest refinery, located near Nizhny Novgorod, had to be turned off, due to an unspecified "incident". It won't be operational for the next four to six weeks, according Russian officials.
Source
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,537
13,109
136
Excellent - so glad to see the EU keep stepping up! At this point, I wish some sensible billionaire's would get together and start pouring money into the districts were this freaking moronic republican congressmen are holding Biden and Ukraine by the balls just to get the Orange man elected. This is one of, if not the least productive congress in history. God save us from these cowards.
Either Beau or Zeihan had a bit on it, it *is* the least effective by a factor of like 5 behind the second most ineffective in history.

Utterly MAGA'd
 
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Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
3,945
5,822
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Multiply these tank and IFV losses by 2 (to account for undocumented losses) to get an estimate for what Russia has lost in the last three days.

 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,019
38,496
136
The Russian Navy continues to live up to it's sterling reputation, haha, gotta love seeing that bow point to the sky. No spinnin that. Another Cold War relic finds an embarrassing end.
 

trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,677
7,170
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Has this been done here? I can't tell with embeds instead of screenshots.


"
"Ship wreck of the day!" the ministry said in a post on its social media pages. "Warriors of the special unit 'Group 13' of the [Defense Intelligence of Ukraine] destroyed the missile corvette 'Ivanovets' of the russian Black Sea Fleet."

"As a result of a number of direct hits to the hull, the corvette was damaged, rolled to the stern, and sank. The value of the ship is approximately $60–70 million," the ministry added. "Nice job, warriors!"

It published a video that purportedly shows the moment of the strike."




.


Just in case anyone wanted to know what the Ivanovets used to look like. Not sure what those dark shapes in the foreground are. Kind'a look like seals. RIP (Rest in Pieces)
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,831
34,771
136
Great Russian Navy continues great success against No Navy.

It's kinda amusing that the whole strategic justification for seizing Crimea was for the BSF to continue its dominance unhindered and now its very survival is at risk from the country they stole Crimea from.

These attacks also reinforce the answer why Russia has not tried harder to sink neutral shipping bound for Ukraine's ports beyond mining: the Ukrainians could easily decimate shipping bound to/from Russian ports.
 
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Drach

Golden Member
Apr 24, 2022
1,099
1,741
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The precedent of Desert Storm when Saddam invaded Kuwait and a US led global coalition drove him back across the border comes to mind.

Ask yourself this... If we don't similarly protect Ukraine like we did Kuwait, what message does that send?

Why? They don't have oil? We're scared of Putin and will only fight down to the levels of the '91 Iraqi army?
Or has the US lost it's nerve and position of global leader and defender of democracies? We'll just turn our backs to allies and let thugs roll over them, kill them and steal their land?

We do that, where does Putin stop? Didn't stop after Georgia, didn't stop after Crimea, won't stop after Ukraine.

Weakness invites war.
You forgot Moldova .
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,831
34,771
136
Ukraine has likely settled on the Gripen if they are going to operate a 2nd western fighter besides the F-16. It may even supplant it if the F-16V order book continues to grow before they can get at it. As it is now they could not see new frames until sometime in the 2030s if ordered today.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,571
7,633
136
The Russian Navy continues to live up to it's sterling reputation, haha, gotta love seeing that bow point to the sky. No spinnin that. Another Cold War relic finds an embarrassing end.
No navy will survive drones.
They are just insanely cost effective against their target.
 

you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
5,758
980
126
No navy will survive drones.
They are just insanely cost effective against their target.
No navy will survive drones unless they have an effective way to stop them. I don't know factually but i suspect while far from perfect the american navy is more effective against drone. It certainly is more effective against flying drones as we've seen in the red-sea.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,775
49,434
136
No navy will survive drones.
They are just insanely cost effective against their target.
Not so sure about that. Current US Navy CIWS tech should be highly effective against drones and in a cost effective manner. While it wasn't designed for dones, we lucked out as it's basically the perfect weapon against them. Ammo is cheap, rate of fire is through the roof, targeting is automatic, etc.

The only ones I would be concerned about are underwater drones as CIWS wouldn't be effective there. Those do not seem to be so cheap/easy to make though.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
16,843
13,774
146
Not so sure about that. Current US Navy CIWS tech should be highly effective against drones and in a cost effective manner. While it wasn't designed for dones, we lucked out as it's basically the perfect weapon against them. Ammo is cheap, rate of fire is through the roof, targeting is automatic, etc.

The only ones I would be concerned about are underwater drones as CIWS wouldn't be effective there. Those do not seem to be so cheap/easy to make though.
An underwater drone? What would that be? A proppeller attached to an explosive? Would probably have to put it in a drag reducing shell so it wouldn’t use to much energy propelling itself. Maybe cigar shaped with the propeller in back.

I guess it would have to have some sort of navigation capability to attack its target. Maybe both on board the drone and some way to communicate with its controllers. Radio would be ok near the surface but sucks below. Might need a long wire.


Would be crazy if someone built an underwater attack drone.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,775
49,434
136
An underwater drone? What would that be? A proppeller attached to an explosive? Would probably have to put it in a drag reducing shell so it wouldn’t use to much energy propelling itself. Maybe cigar shaped with the propeller in back.

I guess it would have to have some sort of navigation capability to attack its target. Maybe both on board the drone and some way to communicate with its controllers. Radio would be ok near the surface but sucks below. Might need a long wire.


Would be crazy if someone built an underwater attack drone.
Like this?

 
Nov 17, 2019
11,285
6,708
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What, you mean like a torpedo? How much havoc have they caused in years gone by?

Remote guidance would be the issue.

There has been babble about energy weapons, both laser and sound. Will they ever be able to stop drones?
 

pcgeek11

Lifer
Jun 12, 2005
21,512
4,607
136
An underwater drone? What would that be? A proppeller attached to an explosive? Would probably have to put it in a drag reducing shell so it wouldn’t use to much energy propelling itself. Maybe cigar shaped with the propeller in back.

I guess it would have to have some sort of navigation capability to attack its target. Maybe both on board the drone and some way to communicate with its controllers. Radio would be ok near the surface but sucks below. Might need a long wire.


Would be crazy if someone built an underwater attack drone.

They have had underwater attack drones for years. Called a Torpedo with active and passive sonar.

 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,775
49,434
136
What, you mean like a torpedo? How much havoc have they caused in years gone by?

Remote guidance would be the issue.

There has been babble about energy weapons, both laser and sound. Will they ever be able to stop drones?
I guess my question is why you would use a laser when you could just blow them out of the sky/water with existing tech?

Again, CIWS probably wouldn't work very well against drones under the water but for everything else it should be fine.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,571
7,633
136
Current US Navy CIWS tech should be highly effective against drones
Can they shoot straight up? Images of the system suggest a rather limited pitch.
A ballistic angle of attack would help make flying drones vulnerable to interception, but those systems have very limited capacity. Where as the CIWS solution appears to have a glaring blind spot.
OTOH, if we're talking a fleet of ships. They could be spaced out as to provide last second protection, even from above.

Anyways, what I am thinking of is a numbers game. Fleets (sea lift capacity) will never match the cost effectiveness of the tools used to destroy them. Unless our defenses can hold.
What I see in Ukraine is that defense is limited, spotty, and prone to failure. These precision weapons can make us bleed like never before.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,775
49,434
136
Can they shoot straight up? Images of the system suggest a rather limited pitch.
A ballistic angle of attack would help make flying drones vulnerable to interception, but those systems have very limited capacity. Where as the CIWS solution appears to have a glaring blind spot.
OTOH, if we're talking a fleet of ships. They could be spaced out as to provide last second protection, even from above.

Anyways, what I am thinking of is a numbers game. Fleets (sea lift capacity) will never match the cost effectiveness of the tools used to destroy them. Unless our defenses can hold.
What I see in Ukraine is that defense is limited, spotty, and prone to failure. These precision weapons can make us bleed like never before.
Yes, they can basically shoot straight up (max elevation 85 degrees and most ships have multiples which should be able to cover the other 5 degrees for each other) and can fire 75 high explosive rounds a second with fully automated engagement of basically as many targets as you can come at it with. It’s basically the dream drone shredder.

Basically what I’ve seen from Ukraine is that systems like the Gephard are highly effective against drones. The issue with Gephard is limited range and there aren’t enough of them to go around. A ship clearly does not have this problem as it carries multiple Gephards with it at all times.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,775
49,434
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It’s certainly possible to eventually design drones of sufficient quantity and complexity to overwhelm CIWS capabilities but to make them with enough speed, range, warhead capacity, coordination abilities, etc. is not an easy thing to do.

Best bet is probably to catch a ship in an area where it’s required to be both close to shore and can’t maneuver like the Straits of Hormuz, but frankly that area has always been dangerous for exactly this reason. Not sure how much drones change the calculus there.
 
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