I was listening to a debate about this recently. Really good point was that there is maybe a ~25yr window left where China is a real global power/threat, and then after that they're done. Mostly based on their declining population demographics. Resulted in a suggestion that it highly increases the chances they do something about Taiwan.
More importantly for the rest of us, that window for Xi himself is much smaller.
But yeah, a country of 1.3 billion people dropping down to about 200 million in a relatively short amount of time should be...interesting. Russia is also fucked. Both dictators are trying to set up their respective shit holes so they can diminish and fade away on
their terms, with minimal input from Brussels and Washington. Lends a bit of nihilistic resolve to things. We shake our heads over Putin's lack of regard for life, but just wait until Xi says 'Hold my baijiu' and starts his own 'special military operation.' Through war and famine, Xi Xinping is going to gladly trade hundreds of millions of Chinese lives to keep the CCP in power.
I expect Xi will want to see who wins the next US Presidential election as much as Putin, but that he will blockade/attack Taiwan 2025, 2027 at the latest.