Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
There are probably enough votes to pass this in the house via discharge petition. The Dems have a shell waiting. The only question is how many R votes they actually need vs what defections they have to deal with over the Israel aid. I'm sure the D whip is working through this already. Though that could also cut the other way attracting more Rs to the bill who want to fund Israel and are frustrated by the speaker's two inept attempts plus they will be lobbied very heavily.

Johnson won't just put it on the floor himself because it would comfortably pass.
Even though it's been a stupidly long battle - I just want it passed. Not fond of the 'security aid' for Israel; but I'll take that to meet our obligations to Ukraine under the Budapest Trilateral memorandum, IMHO -we owe this to Ukraine. And, to meet these needs of our NATO allies who do not need a belligerent Russia on their doorstep.

I do wish Putin would have a stroke or heart attack. I don't want him to die, I just want him to live long enough to watch his attempt to conquer Ukraine to collapse and for all of his 'friends' to desert him because his now weak personal influence.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,831
34,771
136
How does it affect Americans?

We took the "it doesn't" argument to its conclusion in the late 1930s and it did not at all work out just fine. A strong and aligned Europe benefits US interests, same for Asia. Trying to shape the world in a way that favors us politically and economically is impossible without engagement because others will engage to our detriment.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
China, so brilliant they have marched themselves right into into multiple current internal crises and just crested the top of an insane self imposed population curve that will see the country with 1/3rd the people by the end of the next century.

In sum: not really looking great.

I like the pyramid charts, this one from 2022 data:



Population is crashing like there's a shed ton of bricks falling on it. Over the next 30 years their workforce is going to collapse.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,019
38,496
136
Even Freedom Caucus members say if it reaches the floor it's gonna pass.

The money in the bill is also just attractive because the vast majority of it will go to the districts of some members who might be "no" inclined. That plus Israel cash is a difficult thing to pass up.




Absolutely. Something like 75% of it actually benefits US industry doesn't it? Far from handing another government a check. Keep your constituents making money and hiring, while standing with allies and help avoid a future war that Americans will have to fight in? Maintain the credibility of US military partnerships instead of shitting on them? Yeah, that sinks in even with Freedom Caucus nuts.

Putin's got to be worried. Ukraine just got all that money from the EU, and now the US is posed to once again put it's money where it's mouth is in a big way. Ukraine's got access to Western and Eastern markets, while Russia is paying for things in gold delivered via diplomatic flights. It's ok Vlad, I'm sure you'll feel better after you kill and injure a few dozen civilians with a missile strike.

If this were to be somehow scuttled by Team Treason, I want to see Norway poney up the 60 large for Ukraine on their own, just out of spite for Putin and pure Viking badassery. They can afford it.
 
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Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
11,820
8,406
136
I like the pyramid charts, this one from 2022 data:

View attachment 93798

Population is crashing like there's a shed ton of bricks falling on it. Over the next 30 years their workforce is going to collapse.

I was listening to a debate about this recently. Really good point was that there is maybe a ~25yr window left where China is a real global power/threat, and then after that they're done. Mostly based on their declining population demographics. Resulted in a suggestion that it highly increases the chances they do something about Taiwan.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,019
38,496
136
I was listening to a debate about this recently. Really good point was that there is maybe a ~25yr window left where China is a real global power/threat, and then after that they're done. Mostly based on their declining population demographics. Resulted in a suggestion that it highly increases the chances they do something about Taiwan.

More importantly for the rest of us, that window for Xi himself is much smaller.

But yeah, a country of 1.3 billion people dropping down to about 200 million in a relatively short amount of time should be...interesting. Russia is also fucked. Both dictators are trying to set up their respective shit holes so they can diminish and fade away on their terms, with minimal input from Brussels and Washington. Lends a bit of nihilistic resolve to things. We shake our heads over Putin's lack of regard for life, but just wait until Xi says 'Hold my baijiu' and starts his own 'special military operation.' Through war and famine, Xi Xinping is going to gladly trade hundreds of millions of Chinese lives to keep the CCP in power.

I expect Xi will want to see who wins the next US Presidential election as much as Putin, but that he will blockade/attack Taiwan 2025, 2027 at the latest.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,019
38,496
136
The animal aspect to Ukraine's defense has long been an interest of mine. Like I've said earlier in this thread, the people who go into war zones to rescue pets and zoo animals alike are pretty much saints in my book. In particular cats helping the war effort is pretty impressive. I'm familiar with Stepan, the chillest cat, and his merch line.

Didn't know about Oleksandr Liashuk and his cat.

He told Business Insider that his cat, Shayba, has helped him collect more than $80,000 in fundraising. With the money they received, he said he was able to buy eight military vehicles, an anti-drone weapon, and a thermal-imaging camera for his unit. “His admirers are everywhere – from Chile to Japan – so Shayba’s stories touch people’s hearts worldwide, motivating them to contribute to Ukraine’s aid,” Liashuk told the outlet.



A domesticated cat helping to produce dead drones and Russians. Suck it Bengal tiger.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,775
49,434
136
The animal aspect to Ukraine's defense has long been an interest of mine. Like I've said earlier in this thread, the people who go into war zones to rescue pets and zoo animals alike are pretty much saints in my book. In particular cats helping the war effort is pretty cool. I'm familiar with Stepan, the chillest cat, and his merch line.

Didn't know about Oleksandr Liashuk and his cat.

He told Business Insider that his cat, Shayba, has helped him collect more than $80,000 in fundraising. With the money they received, he said he was able to buy eight military vehicles, an anti-drone weapon, and a thermal-imaging camera for his unit. “His admirers are everywhere – from Chile to Japan – so Shayba’s stories touch people’s hearts worldwide, motivating them to contribute to Ukraine’s aid,” Liashuk told the outlet.

I’m torn. While I’m happy it’s helping Ukraine I feel for that sweet little cat.

I am basically a misanthropic grump except when it comes to cats. Then I turn into a blubbering idiot.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,571
7,633
136
How does it affect Americans?
Putin will only accept a full and unconditional surrender of Ukraine.
You are campaigning for that result.

For handing the Eastern Bloc (Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, etc) the land, the resources, and the remaining manpower of Ukraine.
To make our enemies stronger for when they make their next move against us.

The only acceptable answer is to defeat our enemies, to defeat Russia.
Or America grows weaker as a result.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,775
49,434
136
Putin will only accept a full and unconditional surrender of Ukraine.
You are campaigning for that result.

For handing the Eastern Bloc (Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, etc) the land, the resources, and the remaining manpower of Ukraine.
To make our enemies stronger for when they make their next move against us.

The only acceptable answer is to defeat our enemies, to defeat Russia.
Or America grows weaker as a result.
There would be a reasonable strategic (not moral) case for staying out of it if we genuinely thought Russia was going to stop with Ukraine. To believe that would require not only ignoring all of Russian history but their current statements though. Russia is not going to stop and the US has numerous strategic and economic interests in a stable and friendly Europe.

So, we either fight them now when their army has faced huge and unexpected losses or we fight them later after they learned the lessons here.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,337
2,355
136
Even Freedom Caucus members say if it reaches the floor it's gonna pass.

The money in the bill is also just attractive because the vast majority of it will go to the districts of some members who might be "no" inclined. That plus Israel cash is a difficult thing to pass up.

I'm not keeping up with the Joneses, so explain this to me. If this bill passes, the Repugs blew up an immigration bill that they could previously only have wet dreams about, on Trump's orders. So that they could have a fairly clean military aid bill instead? Kudos to Dark Brandon if that comes to pass (and Moscow Mitch's days as Majority Leader are thus over LOL).

Also not to make light of war/stalemate, but this is too good not to share:

 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,019
38,496
136
I can't say I've ever heard a Mongolian dis like that before, pretty funny. I guess they got a kick out of Putin's "interview" too?
 
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raildogg

Lifer
Aug 24, 2004
12,884
569
126

Here is Ukrainian news reporting on Avdiivka. Ukrainian throwing a lot at this battle as they know that the east is being lost.


And another one. So apparently Russia has a lot of supply of soldiers and weapons. Not just shovels, as reported by Western press.

Sorry for the average Ukrainian person. Hope they come to the negotiations despite what NATO wants. But at this point, I don't think Russia will let go of eastern Ukrainian territory and definitely not Odessa. Not after having to fight this hard against the entire NATO coalition.
 
Reactions: Young Grasshopper

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
3,945
5,822
136
I hope Ukraine leaves Avdiivka faster than they left Bakhmut.

If the U.S. cannot do the bare minimum, Ukraine will have to continually cede small amounts of territory in exchange for hundreds of thousands Russian casualties and the further immolation of their Soviet inheritance.
 

raildogg

Lifer
Aug 24, 2004
12,884
569
126
Ukraine's new strategy, from what Sysky says, is to go on the defensive and try to drain the Russians. So no spring offensive this time I guess.


"Everything is based on the fact that we must end the war by reaching our borders. Other options are not considered because we simply have no other way out. This is, firstly," Syrskyi says.

Is this realistic? Hard to say but doesn't seem like it. Ukraine has not been able to push back the Russians at all. Holding the line is not pushing them back.
 
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