Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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raildogg

Lifer
Aug 24, 2004
12,884
569
126
Thats smart
That shows their capabilities are very limited. Low weapons, low on manpower, etc. If they had these things they would definitely go on the offensive and not wait for more of their land to become a part of Russia. Did you read that Ukrainska Pravda article I linked? Russia has plenty of high level troops that they using in these fights.

"On the Avdiivka front, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are opposing Russian Special Forces and paratroopers, and in recent days, Russia has also deployed more armoured vehicles for the offensive.

Source: Dmytro Lykhovii, spokesman of the Tavria Defence Forces, on the national joint 24/7 newscast

Quote: "We see the enemy's intentions, where they want to advance to cut the logistics supply route, primarily in Avdiivka, providing some kind of operational environment.

Countermeasures and clashes are taking place. The firing line moves not just in one direction.

...Recently, the enemy have begun to deploy armoured vehicles in offensive operations, such as tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Sometimes it's one or two, sometimes more."
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,708
49,291
136
Ukraine's new strategy, from what Sysky says, is to go on the defensive and try to drain the Russians. So no spring offensive this time I guess.


"Everything is based on the fact that we must end the war by reaching our borders. Other options are not considered because we simply have no other way out. This is, firstly," Syrskyi says.

Is this realistic? Hard to say but doesn't seem like it. Ukraine has not been able to push back the Russians at all. Holding the line is not pushing them back.
This is not hard to understand. Russia initially intended to depose Ukraine’s government and establish dominance over the state. After catastrophic losses they have retrenched.

From Ukraine’s perspective the question is simple. If they make a peace deal is that something Russia will honor? The Budapest Memorandum shows that’s obviously untrue. So what do you do? Why make a deal with someone who won’t honor it?
 
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[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,577
12,689
146

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,517
13,090
136
That shows their capabilities are very limited. Low weapons, low on manpower, etc. If they had these things they would definitely go on the offensive and not wait for more of their land to become a part of Russia. Did you read that Ukrainska Pravda article I linked? Russia has plenty of high level troops that they using in these fights.

"On the Avdiivka front, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are opposing Russian Special Forces and paratroopers, and in recent days, Russia has also deployed more armoured vehicles for the offensive.

Source: Dmytro Lykhovii, spokesman of the Tavria Defence Forces, on the national joint 24/7 newscast

Quote: "We see the enemy's intentions, where they want to advance to cut the logistics supply route, primarily in Avdiivka, providing some kind of operational environment.

Countermeasures and clashes are taking place. The firing line moves not just in one direction.

...Recently, the enemy have begun to deploy armoured vehicles in offensive operations, such as tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Sometimes it's one or two, sometimes more."
Thats ok aid is coming again from both EU and US, its gonna go BANG soon enough, dont you worry.
 
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raildogg

Lifer
Aug 24, 2004
12,884
569
126
This is not hard to understand. Russia initially intended to depose Ukraine’s government and establish dominance over the state. After catastrophic losses they have retrenched.

From Ukraine’s perspective the question is simple. If they make a peace deal is that something Russia will honor? The Budapest Memorandum shows that’s obviously untrue. So what do you do? Why make a deal with someone who won’t honor it?
Dialogue works when there is respect, ok.

Well, you are not really sure what the Russians wanted so let's not even go there please. Right now the situation is not in Ukraine's favor, no matter how it started or what happened. Right now, Ukraine is barely hanging on. Ukraine is being squeezed by Russia and some of its neighbors too. Many Europeans are fed up of this war and what has happened.


Ukraine's economy is done. Their agriculture is in bad shape and nearby countries are not happy. As for not honoring treaties, the Russians know this very well because of their betrayal by the Minsk treaty. Even Angela Merkle has said that the West knew it was going to deceive Russia and use this time to build up Ukraine.
 

raildogg

Lifer
Aug 24, 2004
12,884
569
126
Thats ok aid is coming again from both EU and US, its gonna go BANG soon enough, dont you worry.
The people of the EU and US are increasingly getting upset with the endless aid going to a country losing the war. The elites who run these countries love this because its a way to enrich themselves. New weapons, more money changing hands, huge contracts, etc. The average person is wondering why the heck are they sending so much money to a corrupt country that is losing territory.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,517
13,090
136
The people of the EU and US are increasingly getting upset with the endless aid going to a country losing the war. The elites who run these countries love this because its a way to enrich themselves. New weapons, more money changing hands, huge contracts, etc. The average person is wondering why the heck are they sending so much money to a corrupt country that is losing territory.
No they’re not. Russian psyops on SOME may make it look like that but I guarantee you the Russian hate is growing throughout Europe day after day. Some may not even consider them human anymore. More like garbage.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,708
49,291
136
Dialogue works when there is respect, ok.

Well, you are not really sure what the Russians wanted so let's not even go there please. Right now the situation is not in Ukraine's favor, no matter how it started or what happened. Right now, Ukraine is barely hanging on. Ukraine is being squeezed by Russia and some of its neighbors too. Many Europeans are fed up of this war and what has happened.
We know what they wanted, they tried very hard to capture Kyiv. They failed, but their intentions were 100% clear.

Ukraine's economy is done. Their agriculture is in bad shape and nearby countries are not happy. As for not honoring treaties, the Russians know this very well because of their betrayal by the Minsk treaty. Even Angela Merkle has said that the West knew it was going to deceive Russia and use this time to build up Ukraine.
Russian lies about Minsk aside, they had already violated the Budapest Memorandum at that point.

So again my question - when you know Russian promises aren’t worth the paper they are written on how do you negotiate? You know they are lying, so what’s the point?
 
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raildogg

Lifer
Aug 24, 2004
12,884
569
126
No they’re not. Russian psyops on SOME may make it look like that but I guarantee you the Russian hate is growing throughout Europe day after day. Some may not even consider them human anymore. More like garbage.
That's what you say but I think the hate is growing the terrible leadership in most of these NATO countries, including America. Germans want a good standard of living, not virtue signaling on Ukraine.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,708
49,291
136
The guy with the Ukrainian flag next to him is telling the truth. What kind of nonsense is this? A country lacking ammo, troops is inflicting that much damage on a much better armed country? Please, even Ukrainian fanatics cannot be this naïve.
So to be clear you think that an overmatched entity should surrender in the face of a superior military force, even if that military force is illegally occupying their land?
 

raildogg

Lifer
Aug 24, 2004
12,884
569
126
We know what they wanted, they tried very hard to capture Kyiv. They failed, but their intentions were 100% clear.

Russian lies about Minsk aside, they had already violated the Budapest Memorandum at that point.

So again my question - when you know Russian promises aren’t worth the paper they are written on how do you negotiate? You know they are lying, so what’s the point?

Angela Merkle admits it. Minsk was designed to dupe Russia. The West's main goal is to weaken Russia.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,577
12,689
146
The guy with the Ukrainian flag next to him is telling the truth. What kind of nonsense is this? A country lacking ammo, troops is inflicting that much damage on a much better armed country? Please, even Ukrainian fanatics cannot be this naïve.
You're a joke. Ukraine is far, far better equipped.

Besides, the info is from osint analysts, not his personal observations. If you want to call them out, be my guest, but get some lube because you're going to get your shit pushed in harder than 13x RU forces.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,708
49,291
136

Angela Merkle admits it. Minsk was designed to dupe Russia. The West's main goal is to weaken Russia.
Did Minsk come before or after Russia guaranteed Ukraine’s territorial integrity?

One word answer, please.
 
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raildogg

Lifer
Aug 24, 2004
12,884
569
126
So to be clear you think that an overmatched entity should surrender in the face of a superior military force, even if that military force is illegally occupying their land?
I never say to surrender. I say come to the negotiations and work out peace. Two Slavic countries fighting because of Western elites? Makes no sense. Come and talk. Joining NATO and becoming part of the US-led bloc against Russia is not acceptable to Russia. I don't care either way but that is what Russia has said. Can we respect their views or only Western views are acceptable?

Just because a country is overmatched, it doesn't mean that they did not have a role in their defeat. The Ukraine's current pro-West government, which replaced a more neutral government back in 2014, has to be held accountable. Russia and Ukraine have a long border and historical ties. Joining NATO was not acceptable to Russia. Not my choice, not your choice. That's how they viewed this.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,752
34,631
136
The guy with the Ukrainian flag next to him is telling the truth. What kind of nonsense is this? A country lacking ammo, troops is inflicting that much damage on a much better armed country? Please, even Ukrainian fanatics cannot be this naïve.

Open source confirmed vehicle losses alone were running like a 14:1 ratio here. So yea, it's that bad for them or worse.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,752
34,631
136
As for shifting to a defensive posture that's a natural solution to having less available munitions. If the enemy is going to come to you to get killed, and they will because Moscow's political goals require it, then let them come into the jaws of death.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,577
12,689
146
As for shifting to a defensive posture that's a natural solution to having less available munitions. If the enemy is going to come to you to get killed, and they will because Moscow's political goals require it, then let them come into the jaws of death.
Yup, the point of war isn't to die for your country, it's to make the other guy die for his. And Russia is doing a whole lot of dying. Let's see how long until they tap into Moscow's youth.
 

raildogg

Lifer
Aug 24, 2004
12,884
569
126
fskinospy,

Shelling has continued, human rights against Russian speakers has continued despite Minsk 1 and the later Minsk 2.

Quoting an article:

Earlier last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia was hoping for peace agreements back when it signed the Minsk agreements in 2014, but it was fooled.

"We all endured, endured, endured and hoped for some kind of peace agreement, but now it turns out that we were simply fooled," Putin told reporters.

"After the revelations of [ex-German Chancellor Angela] Merkel, [ex-Ukrainian President Petro] Poroshenko, and other politicians about the true goals of the Minsk agreements, it became obvious to everyone that Russia was not the source of the conflict in Ukraine," Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said a day before Putin's statement.

Moreover, Merkel, who was in office from 2005 to 2021, said earlier that month that the Minsk accords were signed to "give Ukraine time" to strengthen itself.

"The 2014 Minsk agreement was an attempt to give time to Ukraine. It also used this time to become stronger as can be seen today. The Ukraine of 2014-2015 is not modern Ukraine," Merkel said.

In a similar context, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who, earlier in December, confessed that the Minsk agreements were only "meant to give Ukraine time" said on December 28 that the question of whether or not she will be participating in a possible Ukrainian reconciliation process "has not been raised."

So basically, Minsk was not to stop the shelling in Donbass but to arm up Ukraine? Is that was Merkle is saying? In other words, propose a ceasefire so Ukraine can arm up but is still shelling Donbass?
 

raildogg

Lifer
Aug 24, 2004
12,884
569
126
As for shifting to a defensive posture that's a natural solution to having less available munitions. If the enemy is going to come to you to get killed, and they will because Moscow's political goals require it, then let them come into the jaws of death.
Defensive posture does not seem like a winning move as Russia is producing so many weapons. Eventually they cannot hold. The US GOP is likely not to give much support going forward as giving support to Israel is deemed more crucial (for their Christian base).

Interesting, that means that the West needs to step up its industrial base quick in order to produce millions of artillery shells. Can the West do this? Seems unlikely given their for-profit MIC system. Who knows, maybe they can. Doesn't matter because right now, the Ukrainians are being squeezed. It's not just a defensive posture, it's being squeezed from multiple angles. They need a lot of soldiers, vehicles, transport trucks, bulldozers, rescue vehicles, etc. The West has a lot of work to do because I think they exhausted most of their supplies before.

Seems like whatever Putin is doing people in Russia like him. Don't laugh at this source please, I know it's not too scientific in its approach but it gives you a general idea:


I don't think Putin needs to do to much to keep his people happy. Sorry, this does not mean I agree with the man or support him but this is what is happening.
 
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