Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[GodisanAtheist]

Was just thinking, I must have heard a thousand variations of this “thought experiment” : If you had a time machine would you go back and kill Hitler?
Though all anyone right now has is this device going forward in time one second per second. Ish. Eh what can you do.

-Dont need a thought experiment, just play the documentary Command & Conquer Red Alert...

Whole premise is that Einstein goes back in time and erases Hitler from the timeline. Without Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union grows unchecked and eventually invades Europe and finally the United States.

Unfortunately the game is highly unrealistic, as we know now that the Russians would make it about 10 miles into Poland and then get mired in an unwinnable conflict while their trolls ran interference for them on Usenet groups or whatever.

 

[Pens1566]

-Dont need a thought experiment, just play the documentary Command & Conquer Red Alert...

Whole premise is that Einstein goes back in time and erases Hitler from the timeline. Without Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union grows unchecked and eventually invades Europe and finally the United States.

Unfortunately the game is highly unrealistic, as we know now that the Russians would make it about 10 miles into Poland and then get mired in an unwinnable conflict while their trolls ran interference for them on Usenet groups or whatever.

But the Tesla Coils and Attack Dolphins would be freaking awesome ...

 

[Paratus]

-Dont need a thought experiment, just play the documentary Command & Conquer Red Alert...

Whole premise is that Einstein goes back in time and erases Hitler from the timeline. Without Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union grows unchecked and eventually invades Europe and finally the United States.

Unfortunately the game is highly unrealistic, as we know now that the Russians would make it about 10 miles into Poland and then get mired in an unwinnable conflict while their trolls ran interference for them on Usenet groups or whatever.

Popped up at the end of Deadpool 2. (With a time travel montage set to the tune of “If I Could Turn Back Time)

 

[cytg111]

-Dont need a thought experiment, just play the documentary Command & Conquer Red Alert...

Whole premise is that Einstein goes back in time and erases Hitler from the timeline. Without Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union grows unchecked and eventually invades Europe and finally the United States.

Unfortunately the game is highly unrealistic, as we know now that the Russians would make it about 10 miles into Poland and then get mired in an unwinnable conflict while their trolls ran interference for them on Usenet groups or whatever.

railrodmorons aside, I’ve come to understand that the red army actually have upped their game. Still meat waves but tactics has improved. Warming up. But realistically how many bodies do they have? Ukraine 40, Russia 150 but if they’re losing manpower at a ratio of 1 to 10 or more… They’ll run out. Sooner or later. Right?

 

[Brovane]

Popped up at the end of Deadpool 2. (With a time travel montage set to the tune of “If I Could Turn Back Time)

Then this guy shows up.

 

[Roger Wilco]

The Russian tank/IFV massacre continues. There’s a big boat in this list too.

 

[K1052]

EU seems to be settling in on a solution to the current shell gap that's likely going to persist until 2025.

Separately I saw a blurb that German arms makers plan to produce a standardized munitions for FPV drones pursuant to Ukrainian requests so they are more consistent and reliable. A lot of the stuff in the field is pretty artesianal.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1758177648637861984

 

[K1052]

The Russian tank/IFV massacre continues. There’s a big boat in this list too.

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I've seen a number of reports that more unmodified (no-ERA) T-62s have been showing up in attacks. Which as you can imagine has not worked out for them.

 

[Jaskalas]

But realistically how many bodies do they have?

Russia is on pace for 200,000 casualties per year.
You said it yourself, 143 million people.
As long as they start having children, indefinitely.

 

[Roger Wilco]

I've seen a number of reports that more unmodified (no-ERA) T-62s have been showing up in attacks. Which as you can imagine has not worked out for them.

I can’t imagine the horror of driving these contraptions into the kill box…with snipers at your back.

 

[K1052]

Russia is on pace for 200,000 casualties per year.
You said it yourself, 143 million people.
As long as they start having children, indefinitely.

Literally running out of bodies not an immediate problem. Running out of available bodies to staff the war without causing massive economic disruption at home including to war production is an immediate problem.

The demographic issue has a longer tail for them but is quite real as well.

 

[K1052]

I can’t imagine the horror of driving these contraptions into the kill box…with snipers at your back.

I would intentionally run over a mine to disable my vehicle then run the fuck away.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Russia is on pace for 200,000 casualties per year.
You said it yourself, 143 million people.
As long as they start having children, indefinitely.

- I don't think the math is that simple.

For one thing, how many people do they actually have in the primo "soldiering" age range of 18-24 (let's say 16-24 since its Russia and all)? Looks like 4 million 15-19, and 3.5 million 20-24 (https://www.populationpyramid.net/russian-federation/2023/).

Start pulling people outside of that age range and you start pulling a lot of established individuals out of the civilian labor force which starts having big negative impacts on the economy.

Also, if a bunch of young men are off soldiering, they're not at home working on that critical population replacement angle.

There is a huge amount of logistics (I mean, even the Russians have logistics) and manpower behind every single mobilized soldier that is not going into a more productive export or consumption. Oil that is burned on the front line is oil that is not exported or used to generate more taxes/revenue. Same for metals, tech, etc.

War economies are deficit/inflation driven and are not sustainable. If they were sustainable, we'd more or less be in a constant state of war with everyone all the time.

 

[fskimospy]

Russia is on pace for 200,000 casualties per year.
You said it yourself, 143 million people.
As long as they start having children, indefinitely.

Very broad estimates are that a society can, at absolute most, support about 10% of its population in the military before society starts to have very serious sustainability problems, and that's a total war situation. So that's about 14 million people, and that's probably being generous to Russia considering the country is 54% women and their demographic pyramid is fucked. Russia is currently losing population and will probably continue to do so for a long time.

I agree that Russia in an absolute sense can sustain casualties at this level for quite some time. I think this will cause them more problems than you think though.

 

[Meghan54]

Russia is on pace for 200,000 casualties per year.
You said it yourself, 143 million people.
As long as they start having children, indefinitely.

But Russia’s population has basically been stalled at approx. 145M since 1990. Have failed to break over 150M pop like ever. And this war is seriously depleting the under-45 crowd. Their birth rate is 9/1000 and dropping…the US isn’t much better at 11/1000.

Don’t know if Russia can realistically absorb the punishment to its population for a decade. Brain drain, worker loss, etc now will have heavy impacts in 2030’s and beyond.

 

[K1052]

Also before anybody does a "but WW2 they lost lots of people" US Lend Lease industrial supplies of food, materials, munitions, vehicles, planes, fuels, and arms were absolutely essential to the survival of the Soviet Union Their industrial output came nowhere near their needs. Similarly to the US after the end of the Cold War the production capacity they built up afterwards was mostly left to rot and cannot be rapidly reconstituted.

 

[cytg111]

A little back of napkin math says Russia has about 200k male bodies turn 18 each year. Half for the grinder half to support or not qualified.

100k per year… If Russia had another front that would collapse fast.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Also before anybody does a "but WW2 they lost lots of people" US Lend Lease industrial supplies of food, materials, munitions, vehicles, planes, fuels, and arms were absolutely essential to the survival of the Soviet Union Their industrial output came nowhere near their needs. Similarly to the US after the end of the Cold War the production capacity they built up afterwards was mostly left to rot and cannot be rapidly reconstituted.

Without lend lease, the Soviets would have been marching to Berlin with bayonets attached to sticks. Just having warm bodies isn't enough, and in this conflict Russia is likely to run out of armor and artillery supplies before meat. Expect to see the daily casualties increase (~1k/day right now), and everything else slowly reduce, and what does get dropped gets older and older (I think we're primarily seeing t-72s now).

 

[Roger Wilco]

Without lend lease, the Soviets would have been marching to Berlin with bayonets attached to sticks. Just having warm bodies isn't enough, and in this conflict Russia is likely to run out of armor and artillery supplies before meat. Expect to see the daily casualties increase (~1k/day right now), and everything else slowly reduce, and what does get dropped gets older and older (I think we're primarily seeing t-72s now).

It’s still very mixed, but the quality of the tanks we are seeing is degrading.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1758105185954476359

 

[K1052]

Seems like SpaceX is going to have to figure out something here because while "no can do" might work for Ukrainian requests to do something I'm not sure the US Government is going to accept that if (when really) their system is used as part of an attack on US forces somewhere.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1758201330189926492

 

[cytg111]

Seems like SpaceX is going to have to figure out something here because while "no can do" might work for Ukrainian requests to do something I'm not sure the US Government is going to accept that if (when really) their system is used as part of an attack on US forces somewhere.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1758201330189926492

Whatever Elmo's response is gonna be its gonna be shitty.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Do I see Dark Helmet up there?

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Why do we think Vlad will stop at age 18 and not drop to 15? Or less. And go up to age 40, 50?

 

[cytg111]

Do I see Dark Helmet up there?

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Why do we think Vlad will stop at age 18 and not drop to 15? Or less. And go up to age 40, 50?

Sure, that'll give a momentary boost, but its not sustainable.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Seems like SpaceX is going to have to figure out something here because while "no can do" might work for Ukrainian requests to do something I'm not sure the US Government is going to accept that if (when really) their system is used as part of an attack on US forces somewhere.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1758201330189926492

Watch the US just straight up obliterate those SATs and put a lockdown on all non govt SpaceX flights until the Ukraine war is resolved.

 

[Brovane]

Seems like SpaceX is going to have to figure out something here because while "no can do" might work for Ukrainian requests to do something I'm not sure the US Government is going to accept that if (when really) their system is used as part of an attack on US forces somewhere.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1758201330189926492

I was reading some on this. The problem that SpaceX is dealing with is there is a bunch of Starlink terminals in Ukraine that are not registered with Ukraine. These are terminals bought by volunteers and being paid for by someone outside of Ukraine and never transferred to Ukraine. Russia is getting around this by buying the terminals in the EU or other places the terminals are for sale and then using front person to pay for the service using euros. If SpaceX just blocked every terminal not registered with the UA this would impact those terminals bought by volunteers. Does SpaceX block all terminals not registered with the UA government?