Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[raildogg]

The advisable course for at least 2024 would be for Ukraine to remain on the defensive. The US-EU can supply sufficient munitions for this. The Russians have to keep attacking because they have a political requirement to do so. If they're going to throw away their army the Ukrainians should let them. Meanwhile enhancing the AFU's long range fires to more regularly strike Russian forces and assets inside Russia itself again increasing the cost of the war to Putin. Everything has a breaking point, even him. Forcing Russia into a political settlement on terms Ukraine can accept is the goal which would include the return of most if not all of the annexed territory and likely NATO basing in Ukraine.

I don't think Russians are that dumb to throw away their military. They are actually being careful so that's why you see the advances in incremental ways. They capture towns slowly and encircle them pretty much, like recently in Avdiivka. If Putin wants to remain popular, it would be unwise to throw away military men and assets, right?

You make good points that the long range missiles can hit inside Russia but this is meaningless in Ukraine's fight to retake land. For this, they need a lot of trained military men, period. They need quantities of advanced weapons, not old Leopards which did not do much good on the battlefield. For this, as you mention, this entire year might be needed. They need a lot of recruitment which they are having a very hard time with. Here is a recent mainstream media US article:

Desperate for soldiers, Ukraine weighs unpopular plan to expand the draft

As the war enters its third year, the most urgent and politically sensitive challenge is whether Ukraine can muster enough new soldiers to repel an enemy with far more fighters.

apnews.com

At this point, Ukraine might be desperate to demand Poland, Germany and other countries to forcibly send back all the men who fled. They need men to fight and operate the equipment. That is Ukraine's biggest challenge. Can you imagine this? Germany is no way going to collect all these Ukrainian men and send them back to Ukraine.

America can print another trillion dollars and send it to Ukraine and that will not help them. I don't see how Ukraine can fix this problem in any good way. Ukraine needs fighting manpower, weapons such as tanks, artillery rounds, guided missiles and lots of training. Forget the airforce because that is just a dream. If the Russians keep up the attacks or actually speed them up, it will put Ukraine that much behind. There will be little time to train soldiers because they will be urgently needed on the front lines to defend.

 

[Roger Wilco]

I don't think Russians are that dumb to throw away their military. They are actually being careful so that's why you see the advances in incremental ways. They capture towns slowly and encircle them pretty much, like recently in Avdiivka. If Putin wants to remain popular, it would be unwise to throw away military men and assets, right?

You make good points that the long range missiles can hit inside Russia but this is meaningless in Ukraine's fight to retake land. For this, they need a lot of trained military men, period. They need quantities of advanced weapons, not old Leopards which did not do much good on the battlefield. For this, as you mention, this entire year might be needed. They need a lot of recruitment which they are having a very hard time with. Here is a recent mainstream media US article:

Desperate for soldiers, Ukraine weighs unpopular plan to expand the draft

As the war enters its third year, the most urgent and politically sensitive challenge is whether Ukraine can muster enough new soldiers to repel an enemy with far more fighters.

apnews.com

At this point, Ukraine might be desperate to demand Poland, Germany and other countries to forcibly send back all the men who fled. They need men to fight and operate the equipment. That is Ukraine's biggest challenge. America can print another trillion dollars and send it to Ukraine and that will not help them. I don't see how Ukraine can fix this problem in any good way.

This is wrong.

Russia is definitely dumb enough to throw away their military.

Why are Russian boys getting sent to the frontline in T-55 tanks just to get vaporized?

 

[K1052]

I don't think Russians are that dumb to throw away their military. They are actually being careful so that's why you see the advances in incremental ways. They capture towns slowly and encircle them pretty much, like recently in Avdiivka. If Putin wants to remain popular, it would be unwise to throw away military men and assets, right?

LMAO. Even the Russians refer to attacks as "meat assaults" is being carful. No they are extremely wasteful in manpower and equipment. Insanely so.

You make good points that the long range missiles can hit inside Russia but this is meaningless in Ukraine's fight to retake land. For this, they need a lot of trained military men, period. They need quantities of advanced weapons, not old Leopards which did not do much good on the battlefield. For this, as you mention, this entire year might be needed. They need a lot of recruitment which they are having a very hard time with. Here is a recent mainstream media US article:

Better firepower requires fewer men in the field. We have a multitude of options available for this.

At this point, Ukraine might be desperate to demand Poland, Germany and other countries to forcibly send back all the men who fled. They need men to fight and operate the equipment. That is Ukraine's biggest challenge. America can print another trillion dollars and send it to Ukraine and that will not help them. I don't see how Ukraine can fix this problem in any good way.

Give me control of 60 billion in USAI and drawdown authority for Ukraine and I'll get the Russians to give up.

 

[raildogg]

This is wrong.

Russia is definitely dumb enough to throw away their military.

Why are Russian boys getting sent to the frontline in T-55 tanks just to get vaporized?

Russia is replacing its destroyed tanks at a rate of 100 a month, UK intel says

Russia has "only achieved minor territorial gains," but its ability to replace tanks means it doesn't need to slow offensives, the UK MOD said.

www.businessinsider.com

T-55 gets used like the old Leapord tanks and other old weapons dropped on Ukraine by the West. If they are sitting in the warehouse, why not use them right?!

Regardless, this doesn't address the biggest problem facing Ukraine: lack of men who can fight in their military.

Russia has plenty of men available to fight, Ukraine does not. The West does not want to fight Russia head to head so where is Ukraine going to get its fighting men from?

 

[trenchfoot]

Whatever it takes. If there's hope of getting something done for Ukraine's sake before the election, by all means...

Magats are so frothed up they either don't understand or don't care what halting support to Ukraine does to our credibility as a security guarantor and reliable ally. Putin needs to lose or Americans get to fight another war in Europe, and not on the cheap.

We need to save our real strength for the next tiny dicktator who wants to snuff out a democratic neighbor. That's what we need to be worrying about, not the no brainer of giving Ukraine what it needs.

For the MAGAts, it's Trump first, party second and then "Who or what the fuck is a Ukraine? Izzat somewhere south of the border? Well fuck with them too then."

 

[raildogg]

LMAO. Even the Russians refer to attacks as "meat assaults" is being carful. No they are extremely wasteful in manpower and equipment. Insanely so.



Better firepower requires fewer men in the field. We have a multitude of options available for this.



Give me control of 60 billion in USAI and drawdown authority for Ukraine and I'll get the Russians to give up.

I don't believe this is accurate information from what I've seen or read. Russia is not the Soviet Union in terms of fighting. They are much smaller force but better armed, much better weapons systems and they are coordinated. Russia came to the drone game late but it is adapting to it.

As far as better firepower, you cannot capture territory this way. Bombing land is not going to help you capture that land. You have to go in with trained soldiers. And also, money is not the problem here. Ukraine's military budget was like $10 billion before the war and now the West has dumped hundreds of billions of dollars into it and that's still not enough.

Remember, before the war, Ukraine had one of the best militaries in Europe. I would rank them above Germany and UK in terms of land forces. But that was not enough. They lost their Soviet era tanks, the Turkish drones helped a little but not enough. The initial Western weapons helped but that cannot be sustained. The West has drained its supplies. And Ukraine has drained its supply of men.

 

[fskimospy]

Ok guys, check this:

https://www.ausa.org/sites/default/files/LPE-23-7W-figure2.png

Right now the top right picture looks like where this war is. What do you experts say this is going in?

We have to stay in the factual state of things in Ukraine. Please, it is not up to me or you to decide this. Right now, Russia occupies significant territory in the Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine. This is what is going on. Not up to me, ok.

In order to go on the offensive, you need a lot more things than you need to be on the defensive. So, the only way for Ukraine to go on the offensive is for the West to deliver millions of rounds of artillery, thousands of tanks, thousands of missiles and thousands of Patriot missiles. Where is this going to come from? Not only that, you need men to operate these things. Remember, this is needed for the offensive if you want to take back the Russian-held territory. Do you see this happening?

I’m not sure what you don’t understand here. The reason why the war continues is that Russia can’t make credible commitments because nobody believes a word they say.

So, if you surrender territory to them they are just going to attack again when they have rebuilt their army. What’s the point?

This is something Russia and their sycophants should have thought of before they invaded.

 

[K1052]

I don't believe this is accurate information from what I've seen or read. Russia is not the Soviet Union in terms of fighting. They are much smaller force but better armed, much better weapons systems and they are coordinated. Russia came to the drone game late but it is adapting to it.

This is not at all accurate. You can easily find piles of Russian dead even from their own telegram channels.

As far as better firepower, you cannot capture territory this way. Bombing land is not going to help you capture that land. You can to go in with trained soldiers. And also, money is not the problem here. Ukraine's military budget was like $10 billion before the war and now the West has dumped hundreds of billions of dollars into it and that's still not enough.

As long as Putin demands attacks the Russian army will come to them to die. Properly armed the AFU can accommodate them until there are no more Russians.

Remember, before the war, Ukraine had one of the best militaries in Europe. I would rank them above Germany and UK in terms of land forces. But that was not enough. They lost their Soviet era tanks, the Turkish drones helped a little but not enough. The initial Western weapons helped but that cannot be sustained. The West has drained its supplies. And Ukraine has drained its supply of men.

WTF. They have larger forces but nowhere near the sophistication or air assets. If Ukraine had the Luftwaffe the Russians would be feeling way more pain. This whole part is incorrect.

 

[raildogg]

I’m not sure what you don’t understand here. The reason why the war continues is that Russia can’t make credible commitments because nobody believes a word they say.

So, if you surrender territory to them they are just going to attack again when they have rebuilt their army. What’s the point?

This is something Russia and their sycophants should have thought of before they invaded.

Crimea is definitely not going back to Ukraine. Donbass, with Luhansk and Donetsk, is now being incorporated into Russia. Getting harder to get that back. So maybe right now the Russians might want to build a buffer zone around these regions. Crimea and the land bridge are important so that means Kherson and Zaporizhia will be in play. They would not like these regions to go back to Ukraine as Crimea will be isolated. So the reality is that Russia will likely want to not give up all of eastern Ukraine and the nearby areas to Crimea.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Russia is replacing its destroyed tanks at a rate of 100 a month, UK intel says

Russia has "only achieved minor territorial gains," but its ability to replace tanks means it doesn't need to slow offensives, the UK MOD said.

www.businessinsider.com

T-55 gets used like the old Leapord tanks and other old weapons dropped on Ukraine by the West. If they are sitting in the warehouse, why not use them right?!

Regardless, this doesn't address the biggest problem facing Ukraine: lack of men who can fight in their military.

Russia has plenty of men available to fight, Ukraine does not. The West does not want to fight Russia head to head so where is Ukraine going to get its fighting men from?

This is wrong.

The T-55 is much older than the leopard 1s. They are not comparable.

Russia has only recently started to send their men to die in T-55 tanks.

It is a sign that they are running out of modern equipment.

It is a sign that the war will get much for Russian soldiers.

 

[fskimospy]

Crimea is definitely not going back to Ukraine. Donbass, with Luhansk and Donetsk, is now being incorporated into Russia. Getting harder to get that back. So maybe right now the Russians might want to build a buffer zone around these regions. Crimea and the land bridge are important so that means Kherson and Zaporizhia will be in play. They would not like these regions to go back to Ukraine as Crimea will be isolated. So the reality is that Russia will likely want to not give up all of eastern Ukraine and the nearby areas to Crimea.

Again, what don’t you understand? This is very basic logic. Since nothing Russia promises can be relied upon there’s no point in making a deal.

Again, something Russia should have thought about. Now it’s too late for them.

 

[raildogg]

This is not at all accurate. You can easily find piles of Russian dead even from their own telegram channels.



As long as Putin demands attacks the Russian army will come to them to die. Properly armed the AFU can accommodate them until there are no more Russians.



WTF. They have larger forces but nowhere near the sophistication or air assets. If Ukraine had the Luftwaffe the Russians would be feeling way more pain. This whole part is incorrect.

Yeah that makes sense. Ukrainians are brave fighters, very capable. They have historically come from a strong military background, similar to the Russians/Soviets. That is right that they would fight to defend their country.

But you are not realizing that Putin is not dumb and sending their army to their loss. He has to answer to his countrymen and to his government. And please, notice I said Ukraine had one of the best land forces in Europe. I did not mention air force as we know Ukraine severely lacks here. Their jets are old Soviet designs and the Russians would not let them fly far anyway.

And you know what? I would imagine the Ukrainians are a better land force than the modern day Germans and definitely the small British force. They had real armor units, unlike the British, and are fierce. That is why Russia is fighting a real fight - the Ukrainians are hard fighters.

 

[fskimospy]

This is wrong.

The T-55 is much older than the leopard 1s. They are not comparable.

Russia has only recently started to send their men to die in T-55 tanks.

It is a sign that they are running out of modern equipment.

It is a sign that the war will get much for Russian soldiers.

And remember, Russia was screwed from the start because even had they succeeded they were going to face an ongoing insurgency. Their problem was their military is so bad they couldn’t even get to the insurgency part.

 

[raildogg]

This is wrong.

The T-55 is much older than the leopard 1s. They are not comparable.

Russia has only recently started to send their men to die in T-55 tanks.

It is a sign that they are running out of modern equipment.

It is a sign that the war will get much for Russian soldiers.

I am sorry but this is just not right. There is no way Russia is running out of equipment. Seeing a T-55 or T-62 or whatever is fine. You know why? Russia has too many old stock! Why is America flying the old F-16? Because it works, right?

Russia is not perfect and has made plenty of mistakes in this war. But seeing old equipment does not mean much really. Not when Russia is on the offensive once again after exhausting the Western weapons.

 

[fskimospy]

I am sorry but this is just not right. There is no way Russia is running out of equipment. Seeing a T-55 or T-62 or whatever is fine. You know why? Russia has too many old stock!

They are using the old stock because they have run out of the good stock.

 

[cytg111]

I am sorry but this is just not right. There is no way Russia is running out of equipment. Seeing a T-55 or T-62 or whatever is fine. You know why? Russia has too many old stock! Why is America flying the old F-16? Because it works, right?

Russia is not perfect and has made plenty of mistakes in this war. But seeing old equipment does not mean much really. Not when Russia is on the offensive once again after exhausting the Western weapons.

Shitlol what? Sleep it off old-timer, try again tomorrow.

 

[raildogg]

They are using the old stock because they have run out of the good stock.

Results on the ground matter more than what weapon is being used.

 

[fskimospy]

Results on the ground matter more than what weapon is being used.

And the results on the ground for Russia have been very poor. Their advances have been negligible and overall they’ve lost half the territory they took in the initial invasion.

If the US had those sorts of results with a tenth the losses we would view it as an absolute catastrophe.

 

[raildogg]

Look, guys, using old equipment doesn't mean much when one country has overwhelming firepower. America uses old stuff all the time, so do most European militaries. Many countries in the world use old weapons because they still work.

Russia is not using the same T-62 or T-55 of the original design. They constantly upgrade them with the engines and armor. Why would Russia throw away thousands of tanks when it can upgrade them?

Russia launches modernization of 800 T-62M and T-62MV tanks for deployment in Ukraine | Ukraine - Russia conflict war 2022 | analysis focus army defence military industry army

Russia has initiated an extensive modernization program to modernize 800 T-62M and T-62MV tanks, which will be redeployed to the region to replace destroyed T-72, T-80, and T-90 tanks.

armyrecognition.com

The T-55 tanks were upgraded in the 90s. So it is not the ancient design you are talking about. But again, let's talk about what is happening on the battlefield rather than what weapons are being used. Are all of them going to be upgraded to the latest standards? Probably not. But that's OK, Russia has plenty of stock and trained crews. Ukraine does not. Neither does the West in terms of numbers.

 

[fskimospy]

Look, guys, using old equipment doesn't mean much when one country has overwhelming firepower. America uses old stuff all the time, so do most European militaries. Many countries in the world use old weapons because they still work.

Russia is not using the same T-62 or T-55 of the original design. They constantly upgrade them with the engines and armor. Why would Russia throw away thousands of tanks when it can upgrade them?

Russia launches modernization of 800 T-62M and T-62MV tanks for deployment in Ukraine | Ukraine - Russia conflict war 2022 | analysis focus army defence military industry army

Russia has initiated an extensive modernization program to modernize 800 T-62M and T-62MV tanks, which will be redeployed to the region to replace destroyed T-72, T-80, and T-90 tanks.

armyrecognition.com

The T-55 tanks were upgraded in the 90s. So it is not the ancient design you are talking about. But again, let's talk about what is happening on the battlefield rather than what weapons are being used.

They weren’t using them at the start because they had better equipment. Now that a large quantity of that better equipment has been destroyed, they have moved on to obsolete designs because they don’t have enough of the newer stuff.

This is not complicated.

 

[brycejones]

I am sorry but this is just not right. There is no way Russia is running out of equipment. Seeing a T-55 or T-62 or whatever is fine. You know why? Russia has too many old stock! Why is America flying the old F-16? Because it works, right?
Russia is not perfect and has made plenty of mistakes in this war. But seeing old equipment does not mean much really. Not when Russia is on the offensive once again after exhausting the Western weapons.

Yes, every military in the world wants to use something that is 4 generations older than their latest hardware while fighting an offensive war. Especially when their latest gear had challenges surviving on the battlefield.

LOL

 

[raildogg]

And the results on the ground for Russia have been very poor. Their advances have been negligible and overall they’ve lost half the territory they took in the initial invasion.

If the US had those sorts of results with a tenth the losses we would view it as an absolute catastrophe.

Based on poor US results in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, let's not bring them up for now please.

Russia has taken lots of Ukrainian land, dealt the country a severe military blow and controls major cities in the east. Despite hundreds of billions in Western aid (that is slowing down). I would not call that poor. Not up to me though, it's just the situation. And this aid is not coming like it used to and Ukraine has gone through so many men and equipment. That means that it is worse shape now than at any time and the Russians are still on the offensive.

Maybe the muddy season will help Ukraine? It might help slow down the Russian advancement on multiple fronts. Ukraine's mud is famous for stopping armies.

 

[brycejones]

Look, guys, using old equipment doesn't mean much when one country has overwhelming firepower. America uses old stuff all the time, so do most European militaries. Many countries in the world use old weapons because they still work.

Russia is not using the same T-62 or T-55 of the original design. They constantly upgrade them with the engines and armor. Why would Russia throw away thousands of tanks when it can upgrade them?

Russia launches modernization of 800 T-62M and T-62MV tanks for deployment in Ukraine | Ukraine - Russia conflict war 2022 | analysis focus army defence military industry army

Russia has initiated an extensive modernization program to modernize 800 T-62M and T-62MV tanks, which will be redeployed to the region to replace destroyed T-72, T-80, and T-90 tanks.

armyrecognition.com

The T-55 tanks were upgraded in the 90s. So it is not the ancient design you are talking about. But again, let's talk about what is happening on the battlefield rather than what weapons are being used. Are all of them going to be upgraded to the latest standards? Probably not. But that's OK, Russia has plenty of stock and trained crews. Ukraine does not. Neither does the West in terms of numbers.

Actually western militaries probably more actually usable equipment in their stockpiles than the Russians do. They are being forced to draw T-55s out of storage because the thousands of T72s and T64s supposedly being maintained where actually not and turned out to not be usable.

This is a problem that happens when your government is a kleptocracy.

 

[raildogg]

They weren’t using them at the start because they had better equipment. Now that a large quantity of that better equipment has been destroyed, they have moved on to obsolete designs because they don’t have enough of the newer stuff.

This is not complicated.

There is not enough evidence that the T-55 is their main tank for offensive purposes. And secondly. Russia just scored a major victory in Avdiivka so if, according to you and others, Russia is using ancient tanks, then it doesn't matter too much does it?

 

[brycejones]

And secondly. Russia just scored a major victory in Avdiivka so if, according to you and others, Russia is using ancient tanks, then it doesn't matter too much does it?

Translation:

Hey guys even though everything I just said was wrong please just ignore it.