Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,608
34,399
136
With the R house finally finishing the appropriations assignment that was due in Oct but getting little of what they held out for focus is shifting to the supplemental.

A ton of Rs want something to pass and Johnson is trying to hold them off. Unlikely to be a sustainable position. Stiffing the guys doing a compromise bill is surely one way to make a discharge petition look more attractive...

 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,548
7,600
136
Someone is taking Europe's security seriously.
If Ukraine breaks, France vows to fight Russia directly.

And I agree with the move. NATO vs Russia in direct war IS A BETTER OUTCOME than losing the entirety of Ukraine and suffering a refugee crisis that will sweep away Europe's democracies. Only nuclear war would stop Russia at that point, amidst all that chaos, right-wing infighting and Putin loyalists gaining power over various countries. So the choice today is conventional now or nuclear later. You might as well go in now.

My suggestion is for NATO to hold the Dnipro river and kill anything that approaches.

Macron Ready to Send Troops to Ukraine if Russia Approaches Kyiv or Odesa

 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,870
38,122
136
CCP tries to be a mediator again *distant sad trombone*

Oddly enough, the Ukrainians aren't interested in what Russia's pimp thinks. No one in Kyiv is interested in trading territory for time. Negotiations about what's next will happen when invading Russians are either dead or expelled.


"According to the official Ukrainian press release, Ukrainian officials briefed the Chinese delegation “on the situation on the battlefield, the functioning of the ‘grain corridor,’ the return of prisoners of war, the protection of the rights of civilian hostages, and the return of Ukrainian children deported by Russia.” “We value our partnership with China and hope that today’s talks will be another step towards deepening and strengthening our relations,” Yermak said in his opening remarks.

"From the press releases, it could be inferred that the meeting between the EU and Chinese officials did not go smoothly, with each side voicing their concerns likely without addressing the issues raised by their counterparts – it appeared as if both parties were talking to a wall."


No way. CCP still trying to erase the Uyghurs, still saying how it will take control of Taiwan by force, still trying to illegally take territory in the SCS, still heavily supporting the Russian invasion to do the same. I can't believe that didn't work Li Hui, shucks.
 

Zor Prime

Golden Member
Nov 7, 1999
1,023
588
136
Someone is taking Europe's security seriously.
If Ukraine breaks, France vows to fight Russia directly.

And I agree with the move. NATO vs Russia in direct war IS A BETTER OUTCOME than losing the entirety of Ukraine and suffering a refugee crisis that will sweep away Europe's democracies. Only nuclear war would stop Russia at that point, amidst all that chaos, right-wing infighting and Putin loyalists gaining power over various countries. So the choice today is conventional now or nuclear later. You might as well go in now.

My suggestion is for NATO to hold the Dnipro river and kill anything that approaches.

Macron Ready to Send Troops to Ukraine if Russia Approaches Kyiv or Odesa

I'm not sure we read the same thing. Ideas were floated.

Take a step back and see where Macron is coming from. He's wildly unpopular. The French had to decide between a shit sandwich and shit stew and they opted for the sandwich, probably with some regret now that he's raised the age of pensioners among other things. He's posturing. His ass is red because Russia has displaced them in Africa, so this is somewhat personal. Half of this is him just trying to deflect and run cover for being generally despised.

There will be no French troops in Ukraine. There will be no NATO troops in Ukraine. Not in any official capacity. You and I both know that if the West wanted this done and over with, it would be. It is far more profitable to send shit for the Ukrainians to use so they and the Russians can kill one another. This conflict will continue in perpetuity if the West gets its way.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,608
34,399
136
Basically every time the Chinese diplomats go to the EU for something it's the same story. They simply have no conception of European views or concerns and apparently have not bothered to really even find out so every ill informed approach is received like a like a fart in a hot car.
 

Zor Prime

Golden Member
Nov 7, 1999
1,023
588
136
Yesterday's ISW (03/07) report is interesting pertaining to Lithuanian intelligence if anyone feels like scoping it out. ISW is a good resource to keep in your daily rotation.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,870
38,122
136
Basically every time the Chinese diplomats go to the EU for something it's the same story. They simply have no conception of European views or concerns and apparently have not bothered to really even find out so every ill informed approach is received like a like a fart in a hot car.

Yeah hats off to the people who have to deal directly with the Chinese on the diplomatic front. I've heard it gets old, fast.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,870
38,122
136
Yesterday's ISW (03/07) report is interesting pertaining to Lithuanian intelligence if anyone feels like scoping it out. ISW is a good resource to keep in your daily rotation.

It does amuse me how an "election" with one candidate and a clearly pre ordained result is a "legitimacy boost" in Russia. But yeah, ISW is pretty good.


"Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated a longstanding Russian information operation denying Ukrainian identity and sovereignty.[59] Putin claimed on March 6 that the “spiritual reunification” of Russia and Ukraine will occur “sooner or later” and that Russia must eradicate “disgusting manifestations of nationalism” for this reunification to occur.[60] Putin’s statements are in line with boilerplate Kremlin rhetoric that rejects all notions of an independent Ukrainian national identity or state sovereignty independent of Russia."

People who keep bringing up peace talks should really read that bit a few times I think. Maybe play a game where they imagine having to themselves negotiate with someone who backs up the above with rape, torture, murder and the kidnapping of children. Would the credibility of a war criminal matter then?
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,611
49,171
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It does amuse me how an "election" with one candidate and a clearly pre ordained result is a "legitimacy boost" in Russia. But yeah, ISW is pretty good.


"Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated a longstanding Russian information operation denying Ukrainian identity and sovereignty.[59] Putin claimed on March 6 that the “spiritual reunification” of Russia and Ukraine will occur “sooner or later” and that Russia must eradicate “disgusting manifestations of nationalism” for this reunification to occur.[60] Putin’s statements are in line with boilerplate Kremlin rhetoric that rejects all notions of an independent Ukrainian national identity or state sovereignty independent of Russia."

People who keep bringing up peace talks should really read that bit a few times I think. Maybe play a game where they imagine having to themselves negotiate with someone who backs up the above with rape, torture, murder and the kidnapping of children. Would the credibility of war criminal matter then?
Remember when those same clowns said this was about NATO expansion?
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,870
38,122
136
The original cop out. I was partial to their 'nazis and servants of bhaal' phase, though it was more satisfying when that SS wannabe Utkin was still alive I suppose.

Haven't seen the nazis brought up in awhile. Maybe it just got too stupid for everyone given the current Ukrainian combo of Jewish president and Muslim Minister of Defense? Idk.

What I do know is the clown brigade's perpetual ignorance or apathy regarding cause and effect with NATO membership probably won't stop. Finland and Sweden expressly joining because of Putin enacting his Peter the Great fantasy is something they just refuse to comprehend. Maga-esque that kind of denial.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,548
7,600
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Zor Prime

Golden Member
Nov 7, 1999
1,023
588
136
^ yeah, Russian media didn't even mention the word Patriot anywhere. They seem convinced it was S-300.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,608
34,399
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Relatedly since Sweden is now in NATO and likely inclined to be a bit freer with weapons transfers to Ukraine I'd have one particular item at the top of my list:

 
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GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
7,035
7,456
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I was wandering around looking for some stats on NATO's airforce capabilities when I came up on this doom and gloom article from 2019 when people took the Russian military seriously.

Worth a read for the laugh, if nothing else:


I was going to make a comment about the how the Russian bear being a raccoon might be bad for the western mil-complex, the increase in orders from former Russian clients for NATO equipment might suggest otherwise.

Classic rules of acquisition stuff here.

ROA 34: War is good for business.
ROA 35: Peace is good for business.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,608
34,399
136
I was wandering around looking for some stats on NATO's airforce capabilities when I came up on this doom and gloom article from 2019 when people took the Russian military seriously.

Worth a read for the laugh, if nothing else:


lmao

An S-400 can spot even stealth aircraft such as the F-35 and, using a relatively cheap missile, down a jet that costs many hundred times its own value.

Additionally, Russia may have the even more advanced S-500 system online by the time fifth-generation fighter aircraft hit the front lines en masse.

The S-400 system cannot reliably intercept low observable cruise missiles but can bag F-35's easily? Ok.

S-500 is another new project that has repeatedly failed to meet its performance goals and has been quietly canned by the Kremlin. This has happened to basically every new super weapon these guys have announced.
 

uclaLabrat

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2007
5,574
2,904
136
lmao



The S-400 system cannot reliably intercept low observable cruise missiles but can bag F-35's easily? Ok.

S-500 is another new project that has repeatedly failed to meet its performance goals and has been quietly canned by the Kremlin. This has happened to basically every new super weapon these guys have announced.
If the officer quoted in the article is even semi-competent you have to figure hes either a) the victim of bad intelligence or b) drumming up fear to spearhead development (and funding) for future weapons programs.

"Enemy at the gates" is a tale as old as time.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,870
38,122
136
The RAF's air vice-marshal doesn't seem to appreciate any difference between detection and a weapons lock capable of engaging?

How strange.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,608
34,399
136
If the officer quoted in the article is even semi-competent you have to figure hes either a) the victim of bad intelligence or b) drumming up fear to spearhead development (and funding) for future weapons programs.

"Enemy at the gates" is a tale as old as time.

It's probably both. Lots of people took Russian claims about their systems at essentially face value, though worst off are the countries who actually purchased lol.
 

rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
4,388
3,118
146
I think everyone across the board thought S400 was really good and could be part of a network that would make S300/Buk/Tor/Pantsir better. I think this was fair as Russia/USSR have a long history of making good missiles.

Turns out maybe it makes them a bit better, but the core capabilities of S400 are not nearly as good as thought. A lot of thinking about how much ordinance it would take to disable a S400 area network have changed. The previous thinking was to basically saturate it with something like JASSM and decoys, now it seems more like saturation isn't required.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,548
7,600
136
Air dropped glide bombs may not be HIMAR quality for speed and utility, but when you can just carpet bomb from 60-70km away, the frontline is destroyed.
Russia is learning and adapting.

Russia’s new guided bomb inflicts devastation and heavy casualties on the Ukrainian front lines

Russia has begun using a powerful aerial bomb that has decimated Ukrainian defenses and tilted the balance on the front lines. It has done so by converting a basic Soviet-era weapon into a gliding bomb that can cause a crater fifteen meters wide.
The bomb is the FAB-1500, essentially a 1.5-tonne weapon of which nearly half comprises high explosives. It is delivered from above by fighter jets from a distance of some 60-70 kilometers, out of range of many Ukrainian air defenses. The FAB-1500 is another example of how Russia is fighting its war in Ukraine, inflicting massive destruction before trying to take territory.
 

Zor Prime

Golden Member
Nov 7, 1999
1,023
588
136
Air dropped glide bombs may not be HIMAR quality for speed and utility, but when you can just carpet bomb from 60-70km away, the frontline is destroyed.
Russia is learning and adapting.

Russia’s new guided bomb inflicts devastation and heavy casualties on the Ukrainian front lines

Russia has begun using a powerful aerial bomb that has decimated Ukrainian defenses and tilted the balance on the front lines. It has done so by converting a basic Soviet-era weapon into a gliding bomb that can cause a crater fifteen meters wide.
The bomb is the FAB-1500, essentially a 1.5-tonne weapon of which nearly half comprises high explosives. It is delivered from above by fighter jets from a distance of some 60-70 kilometers, out of range of many Ukrainian air defenses. The FAB-1500 is another example of how Russia is fighting its war in Ukraine, inflicting massive destruction before trying to take territory.
They can supposedly unearth 20 meters down into the ground. They're hell on troops. There's no indication they're coming unless you're privy to radar data of the bombers flying around. They just ... show up. Can you imagine? Talk about being caught off guard. Apparently insanely loud also, if you manage to survive close proximity your ear drums are probably blown out. Traumatizing as fuck according to the soldiers who manage to get word out. Who would have thought artillery would be preferential to contend with.

It gets better:

Yesterday's ISW report mentions, "The Russian Air Force (VKS) reportedly started using guided glide bombs against Ukraine. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces recently started conducting air strikes with guided glide bombs with universal interspecific glide ammunition (UMPB), as opposed to using unguided glide bombs with unified planning and correction modules (UMPK), in unspecified areas in Ukraine.[51] Russian milbloggers claimed that the guided glide bombs with UMPB have jet engines, which are absent from FAB-250/500 bombs with UMPC, and thus can increase the range of a FAB-250/500 from 40-60 kilometers to 80-95 kilometers.[52]"

edit: ^ Apparently they're tired of losing bombers as frequently as they have been. Forgot to mention that -- that's my assessment.
 
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