Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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dainthomas

Lifer
Dec 7, 2004
14,616
3,470
136
Anyone remember idiotic posts like these?




A new ‘update’ on Ukraine’s bid to join NATO:


Ukraine to be told it is too corrupt to join Nato



Also an interesting tidbit near the bottom of the article:



Any thoughts on this? This whole ‘Ukraine will join NATO someday’ was nothing more than a lie to keep Ukrainians fighting. Anyone who actually thought NATO would risk going to war with Russia over Ukraine is a moron.

If Ukraine was never going to join NATO, then what's Russia's next excuse for their unprovoked attack?
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,083
38,609
136
I think the Russians have done an impressive job propping up their airlines industry, given the weight of sanctions and how they don't make shit themselves. I was expecting it to get ugly. China must really be stepping it up with the parts reproductions. The number of Russians killed in plane crashes actually hit a low in 2023. Prigozhin's plane not factored in btw, which makes sense.


 

RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
1,822
4,454
106
I think the Russians have done an impressive job propping up their airlines industry, given the weight of sanctions and how they don't make shit themselves. I was expecting it to get ugly. China must really be stepping it up with the parts reproductions. The number of Russians killed in plane crashes actually hit a low in 2023. Prigozhin's plane not factored in btw, which makes sense.


Have you got numbers for passenger km's flown over the same period? I suspect this would be vastly down
 

Amused

Elite Member
Apr 14, 2001
56,004
14,537
146
I think the Russians have done an impressive job propping up their airlines industry, given the weight of sanctions and how they don't make shit themselves. I was expecting it to get ugly. China must really be stepping it up with the parts reproductions. The number of Russians killed in plane crashes actually hit a low in 2023. Prigozhin's plane not factored in btw, which makes sense.



Can't crash if you're not flyin...

The drop coincides with drops in flights and passengers. But not as much, which means, (first coffee in head calcuflations) the per capita accident rate may have actually increased?
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,083
38,609
136
Have you got numbers for passenger km's flown over the same period? I suspect this would be vastly down


Mishustin said it went up 11.15% for 2023. Russian numbers though. But he also said Russian aviation is not only managing the sanctions, it's 'developing.' (Horseshit).

While actual crashes are down, it does seem like incidents have gone up. Hey now "On Dec. 11, a Utair flight made an emergency landing because of a wing flap failure while carrying 104 passengers and 42 pounds of a radioactive substance, Russian media reported."

There is no way I'd get on an Aeroflot, Rossiya, etc connection, especially if it was a Boeing or Airbus model.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,560
13,119
136
I think the Russians have done an impressive job propping up their airlines industry, given the weight of sanctions and how they don't make shit themselves. I was expecting it to get ugly. China must really be stepping it up with the parts reproductions. The number of Russians killed in plane crashes actually hit a low in 2023. Prigozhin's plane not factored in btw, which makes sense.


20 in 2023? How many was on the Prigozhin plane?

Nvm.
 

Dave_5k

Golden Member
May 23, 2017
1,664
3,224
136
Just over one third of Russians WANT to START a nuclear war.
"It's a good idea".

Given it is Russia, I suppose those numbers are lower than I expected. Given how often their propaganda talks it up and tries to sell it.
One of the problems with such propaganda is that it very much normalizes such insane actions (very similarly to how Trump's propaganda works), and while Putin may still be rational about not actually following through with it, it greatly increases the chance of any successor following through with such insane actions
 
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Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
11,846
8,445
136

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,880
34,834
136
US, Germany, and Romania will each supply Ukraine with a Patriot fire unit. Italy/France will produce a SAMP/T for them. Think this brings them to eight Patriots and at least two SAMP/Ts. Plus possible assorted S-300/Patriot franken systems.

Have not seen anything about the eight retired Israeli (ex-US/GER) systems but those will probably be handled under something like USAI and the Euro equivalent if there is a deal,

 
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you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
5,763
981
126
Just over one third of Russians WANT to START a nuclear war.
"It's a good idea".

Given it is Russia, I suppose those numbers are lower than I expected. Given how often their propaganda talks it up and tries to sell it.

More Than a Third of Russians Approve of a Nuclear Strike on Ukraine

So basically they are telling their neighbors (without nuclear weapons); if we decide we want your land you will either give it to us or we will nuke you. And this is why lawless countries like Russia shoudln't have nuclear weapons.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,588
7,647
136
So basically they are telling their neighbors (without nuclear weapons); if we decide we want your land you will either give it to us or we will nuke you. And this is why lawless countries like Russia shoudln't have nuclear weapons.
That message was LOUD and CLEAR the day Ukraine faced a full scale Russian invasion.
It only got worse with each passing day - that we failed to directly intercede.

The nuclear proliferation genie is out of the bottle, any nation that wants to survive another nation is going to have nuclear weapons. The rest are just waiting to be slaughtered.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,588
7,647
136
In the latest news, Putin flat out rejects any notion of a ceasefire.
Hand Ukraine over to him, and he'll think about it.

Russian President Vladimir Putin explicitly rejected Russian participation in any meaningful negotiations on a ceasefire agreement, instead demanding Ukraine's "irreversible" "demilitarization" as a precondition for any ceasefire agreement. Putin is thus demanding that Ukraine effectively surrender in advance of any ceasefire.
 

you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
5,763
981
126
To reiterate. Putin will only accept the complete erasure of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.
Genocide is Russia's only goal.
And he said this to his lackey Orbán.

Putin Calls for Total Destruction of Ukrainian Statehood, Rejects Ceasefire in Meeting with Orbán

While eventually what you said is likely accurate it is not what Putin actually said. However, the only real way to end this war (in Ukraine favor) is to make Putin pay a severe cost; unfortunately Russians don't seem to mind dying by the 100's of thousand so something else needs to be done that punishes Putin.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,588
7,647
136
While eventually what you said is likely accurate it is not what Putin actually said. However, the only real way to end this war (in Ukraine favor) is to make Putin pay a severe cost; unfortunately Russians don't seem to mind dying by the 100's of thousand so something else needs to be done that punishes Putin.
It is not something else that needs to be done per say.
We just need to scale up our efforts. So the Russian invaders lose 5, 10, 20 thousand per day.
 

you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
5,763
981
126
It is not something else that needs to be done per say.
We just need to scale up our efforts. So the Russian invaders lose 5, 10, 20 thousand per day.
My point is that Putin could careless if 5 million Russian's die; they are just cannon fodder to him; so it would be more effective if something could be done that actually hurts putin.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,560
13,119
136
My point is that Putin could careless if 5 million Russian's die; they are just cannon fodder to him; so it would be more effective if something could be done that actually hurts putin.
But that is about the only pressure point we have left, to make the situation domestically so absurd that they revolt to overthrow him.

Alternative: NATO gets involved and tanks all ships carrying crude from Russia. Are we there?

No? Then it's grinding Russians and Ukrainians at 10:1 as it is.
 

gorobei

Diamond Member
Jan 7, 2007
3,714
1,068
136
covertcabal and himarsed have done an updated count of afv in rus storage yards. (numbers at the 6min mark)
they changed their assessment criteria/categories due to the nature of the degraded condition of the remaining. decent/poor/worst

they are down to 3000 ish left with maybe <1000 in decent but probably nonfunctional condition but able to be repair/refurbished. the rest are tanks crammed nose to butt shoulder to shoulder and havent been moved in a decade and thus cant have been maintained. the worst are hulls missing turrets and other parts so they should be considered spare parts at best.

at current attrition rates they estimate rus will run out of tanks in 1.5 to 4 years depending on how many of the poor are just scrap.
 
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