Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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My local MAGA are now visibly upset when Ukraine manages to do anything.
"World War 3!!!!!"

Sigh....an America fanatical religion that worships Trump AND bows to Putin. JFC....

Putin isn't going to start world war 3 because he likes living in corrupt luxury. Starting a war with the west is a death sentence.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,647
1,911
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My local MAGA are now visibly upset when Ukraine manages to do anything.
"World War 3!!!!!"

Sigh....an America fanatical religion that worships Trump AND bows to Putin. JFC....

I have seen the same thing. One implied to me that Ukraine shouldn't be attacking Moscow and Ukraine should be asking the US for permission for any attack into Russia.
He also implied that the US Congress should be the one granting permission to Ukraine for attacking Russia. When I pointed out that Ukraine is free to use any weapons it develops and produces itself as it sees fit, he was not happy with me.
 
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you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
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I have seen the same thing. One implied to me that Ukraine shouldn't be attacking Moscow and Ukraine should be asking the US for permission for any attack into Russia.
He also implied that the US Congress should be the one granting permission to Ukraine for attacking Russia. When I pointed out that Ukraine is free to use any weapons it develops and produces itself as it sees fit, he was not happy with me.
Did you mention that Russia initiated an unprovoked invasion; killed 10's of thousand (if not more) civilians; many shot in the head with their hands tied behind the back; kidnapped 10s of thousand children, bombed schools, hospitals, museum and other civilian targets, .... i mean really your friend is an ass.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,647
1,911
136
Did you mention that Russia initiated an unprovoked invasion; killed 10's of thousand (if not more) civilians; many shot in the head with their hands tied behind the back; kidnapped 10s of thousand children, bombed schools, hospitals, museum and other civilian targets, .... i mean really your friend is an ass.

Wasn't a friend but yes I did mention that Russia was bombing Kyiv and he didn't seem really concerned.

This book popped up on my Kindle unlimited feed and was a fairly easy read at around 200 pages by William Spaniel. Wasn't a bad book covering a current event.
Covers up to around the middle of 2023. Does a fairly good job at laying out the early days of the invasion and gave some details I wasn't aware of. Including the battle at Antonov Airport.

How Ukraine Survived: Inside the Strategy to Stop Russia's Invasion

 
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RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
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Can y'all post some thing other than Elmo's Xitter links?
There are a couple of regulars over on bluesky if you want an Elmo free feed?


If you know of others please post up

Bluesky just hit 10mil users and within the last week added support for videos. So its still a minnow in the social media world. But they have some awesome people on their team, so I remain bullish that they will slowly succeed in their mission.
 
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you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
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There are a couple of regulars over on bluesky if you want an Elmo free feed?


If you know of others please post up

Bluesky just hit 10mil users and within the last week added support for videos. So its still a minnow in the social media world. But they have some awesome people on their team, so I remain bullish that they will slowly succeed in their mission.
Now that twitter is X i think blue-sky should become tweeter.
 

RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
2,017
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The Ruble is currently not feeling so well. Will be interesting to see if it touches 100 Ruble/US again, and if the Russian central bank have any tricks left in their bag to continue to support it longer term.



There are also rumours that the internal reserve funds are running low in Russia.

There is also this recent statement...



Russia exhausting itself, expending its monetary reserves, its social services, its industrial capacity, and its political capital.

The Kursk operation is not helping matters. A 15km buffer with Ukraine north of Kursk is also being evacuated.



And given the current Russian counter attack have been stopped according to Ukrainian forces, its likely more evacuations will have to be done.

On Russia's industrial capacity, the brain drain is nothing new, but Russia is really not helping itself.



Coupled with the loss of technical services like Western cloud services, its increasingly difficult for smart innovative Russian companies to survive. The lack of smarts inside Russia is telling from the Russian panic earlier with Telegram's owner being detained in France. Hard questions was asked by Russian bloggers... why was Telegram used by the military at all? Why didn't they have their own comms system?

As said before, for Ukraine to win, all it has to do is not lose. One 'victory' for Ukraine is an 'economic victory'.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
47,935
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Budanov is right that they will probably have to do another mobilization in the summer next year if the recruiting figures that leak out are accurate. Another major problem is that is around the same time many of the equipment depots will be truly dry leading to massive shortages in vehicles and armaments for the army. Putin is going to want to wrap this up next year either through negotiation or if Trump wins taking what he wants.
 

you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
5,940
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Budanov is right that they will probably have to do another mobilization in the summer next year if the recruiting figures that leak out are accurate. Another major problem is that is around the same time many of the equipment depots will be truly dry leading to massive shortages in vehicles and armaments for the army. Putin is going to want to wrap this up next year either through negotiation or if Trump wins taking what he wants.
I suspect he is waiting to see who wins the election; though he is ignoring that Europe might pick up the gap if Trump wins.
 

you2

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2002
5,940
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Nice clip of that depo the AFU just hit. Registered as a 2.8 quake

Guess Russia will be spending more money they don't have on Iranian weapons; of course wouldn't it be nice if Ukraine could sink the ship as it docks.... Think what would have happened if America lost 200,000 soldiers the first 3 years of vietnam war. The Russians lost are just staggering demonstration of utter ineptness. I guess this is what happens when you promote your friends son as a commanders....

Reminds me of a scene in braveheart where the king's son has a friend who plays military adviser until he is tossed out the windowless tower.... hum.... another 'window' death (sort of).
 
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fskimospy

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Mar 10, 2006
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Up to 30000 tonnes of various types of ammo. Several close villages have been wiped apparently.

There is commentary that this was one of the depots servicing the forces in Kursk.
While it’s definitely a huge amount it should be noted that that weight is the entirety of the shell/missile. It’s way smaller than a nuclear explosion or the Beirut one, but it’s still fucking gigantic.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
47,935
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Did that depot store nukes? That's a big explosion. It reminds me of the Beirut blast.

The Beruit explosion was 2.75kt of ammonium nitrate equalling about 1.5kt of TNT.

That blast looked like one storage going off but what it contained is hard to tell besides not being missile propellent. No single storage likely to contain more than a few hundred tons each.
 

RnR_au

Platinum Member
Jun 6, 2021
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While it’s definitely a huge amount it should be noted that that weight is the entirety of the shell/missile. It’s way smaller than a nuclear explosion or the Beirut one, but it’s still fucking gigantic.
Speaking of ammonium nitrate, a Russian ship recently got into difficulty carrying nearly 10x as much as what exploded in Beirut...


Makes for scary scenarios with such ships around... imagine one with a false manifest heading to an major American port.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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Makes for scary scenarios with such ships around... imagine one with a false manifest heading to an major American port.

The problem with this kind of attack, say sailing a bulker loaded with 50kt of ANFO right into Manhattan, is that we will certainly find out who did it and send them the canned sunshine via the most expeditious means at our disposal.
 
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Speaking of ammonium nitrate, a Russian ship recently got into difficulty carrying nearly 10x as much as what exploded in Beirut...


Makes for scary scenarios with such ships around... imagine one with a false manifest heading to an major American port.
See Texas City, 1947
 
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GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
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The Beruit explosion was 2.75kt of ammonium nitrate equalling about 1.5kt of TNT.

That blast looked like one storage going off but what it contained is hard to tell besides not being missile propellent. No single storage likely to contain more than a few hundred tons each.

-Just cause everyone is thinking it: Fatman (Nagasaki) was 21kt and Little Boy (Hiroshima) was 15kt.

So sub nuclear by a long shot but still a big ass explosion.
 
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