Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,102
136
Just in time for companies demand people start coming into work again.

Not sure of the national status of this, but here in Silicon Valley the telecommuting seems to be a permanent thing for many tech firms. Because of that, office space is getting cheaper to rent as there are lots of vacancies.

Ideally we should rezone and convert some of this office space to housing. In which case we get the environmental and time benefits of less traffic, and new housing as well. I like that idea as the NIMBY's can't complain on environmental grounds. They'd have to just admit to being self-interested aholes.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,318
2,344
136
I just don't see how any response wouldn't end up at MAD, except for no response.

MAD wouldn't end humanity, it would just make living horrible (by modern standards) for a very long time.
Again, NATO isn't at war with Russia. So as horrific and insane as Putin launching a nuke at Kyiv would be, why would our guaranteed response be MAD? Like rommelrommel suggested, even a nuclear response could be proportionate, and perhaps not escalate any further.

I agree with you that if our response was to fire a nuke at Moscow (or any major Russian city), then we've doomed ourselves and most of the world to a nuclear holocaust.

I'm not sure I wouldn't prefer death to living on earth after the nuclear arsenals of the USA and Russia were significantly unleashed. Also, not sure I want to live on an earth held hostage to the threat of nuclear annihilation. So, I say call the motherfucker's bluff: NFZ over Ukraine.
I don't think you or I need to worry about that. A nuclear war with Russia guarantees that the major population centers we live in would be unlivable.
 
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Aikouka

Lifer
Nov 27, 2001
30,383
912
126
Be careful of trusting Poland considering some of the issues there recently. They could flip to Vlad fairly easily.

Poland already has deals with the US in regard to FMS (Foreign Military Sales). Working with them in regard to defense hardware isn't new.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
11,791
8,347
136
Yes because we can't give the Ukrainians our F15/16's because they don't know how to fly them and are a little busy right now to go through the training.

Not the way I meant it. Interesting from the "why didn't Poland just give them to Ukraine themselves?" standpoint. Then have US backfill Poland as a separate transaction.

The way they're doing this makes it look like the US is directly supplying MAJOR hardware to Ukraine.

Different considerations (on the Moscow side) entirely in each of those scenarios. Have to think they believe this way means less of a direct threat of retaliation as RU might be more hesitant to lash out at US vs Poland. Gamble either way IMO.
 

Grey_Beard

Golden Member
Sep 23, 2014
1,825
2,007
136
I have an awful feeling that we are going to be pulled into this as well. We just banned Russian oil, and the kicker? We are supplying Jets to Ukraine. How can that not be an act of war on Russia? And, if this means WW3 than Biden needs to be honest with the American public. This is going to hurt most Americans also. Gas is projected to hit $7 a gallon by May. Groceries are going to double. Most Americans were living paycheck to paycheck before the war. And now? The dollar is going to devalue. Record unemployment. We are easily headed towards a recession. Maybe even a global depression. Its going to get very bad.

For once, I agree with Tucker. WW3 is on the horizon. Fasten your seltbelt boys and girls. Its going to be an awfully bumpy ride.


I think you are overreacting. We need a wake up call with oil and our need for large SUVs. These decisions will haunt people, but that is not Baden’s issue and being honest about what is going on is exactly what he is doing.

I can see that car makers will reverse course of sedans and small fuel efficient cars in the near term. SUVs will devalue much more in the next twelve months than any other type of vehicle.
 
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Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,822
10,228
136
Not sure of the national status of this, but here in Silicon Valley the telecommuting seems to be a permanent thing for many tech firms. Because of that, office space is getting cheaper to rent as there are lots of vacancies.

Ideally we should rezone and convert some of this office space to housing. In which case we get the environmental and time benefits of less traffic, and new housing as well. I like that idea as the NIMBY's can't complain on environmental grounds. They'd have to just admit to being self-interested aholes.
I think a lot of companies are going to do Hybrid. Apple being the most obvious public example.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,102
136
Not the way I meant it. Interesting from the "why didn't Poland just give them to Ukraine themselves?" standpoint. Then have US backfill Poland as a separate transaction.

The way they're doing this makes it look like the US is directly supplying MAJOR hardware to Ukraine.

Different considerations (on the Moscow side) entirely in each of those scenarios. Have to think they believe this way means less of a direct threat of retaliation as RU might be more hesitant to lash out at US vs Poland. Gamble either way IMO.

Well we've been supplying weaponry to Ukraine for years now. And we supplied weaponry to the Mujhadeen in Afghanistan, after Russia (USSR) had supplied weapons to the Viet Minh. And then Russia supplied weapons and other support to the Taliban. This has been our relationship with Russia since WWII. We don't fight each other. We supply weapons to each others enemies.

I'm sure Putin doesn't like us supplying Ukraine with Polish MIGS, but then again they already knew we would do that, or something like it, before invading. Because those are the unwritten rules which have been around for a long time. I don't see it as much of a gamble on our part.
 

pauldun170

Diamond Member
Sep 26, 2011
9,133
5,072
136
The Polish Mig-29 fleet is a hodgepadge of hand-me downs from other countries (Old Czeck and East German).
Generally, these were obsolete lawn darts from the factory. The original batch of export Mig-29's suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucked.
Fine for training exercises. Great for airshows.
Great for getting shot down by other fighters.

The ones from the Czechs were serviceable and received a bunch of equipment to work with NATA\Western environments. The German Migs were...."rustic?"
They got some work done and the Israelis installed Netflix in them but from what I recall, Poland was planning to retire the entire fleet in 2025.

In Polish service, they have also been pretty good at being grounded or waiting for a bit of spit and polish. To toss some of the rattier Migs Ukraines way out of Polands already squeezed Mig29 fleet might put Poland in a bad spot. I wouldn't be surprised if availability in Polish service is in the 20% to 30% area.
If their entire fleet is 23 Migs (couple of witch are trainers) and only 7 are flyable....are they just going to write off the entire fleet 3 years early and give them to Ukraine?
Even if we floated them a bunch of F-16s, that's 2 squadrons of Polish pilots and maintenance crews that will be out of commission to transition over from Mig's to F-16's.

Poland would have to take comfort that being a NATO member means that when shit hits the fan the size of your Air Force is the equivalent of all of NATO.
 

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
3,932
5,812
136
So, I’m guessing the instrumentation and weapons on Poland’s MIGs are just a tad superior to handwritten coordinates, dumb bombs, and civilian radios.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,509
13,085
136
Again, NATO isn't at war with Russia. So as horrific and insane as Putin launching a nuke at Kyiv would be, why would our guaranteed response be MAD? Like rommelrommel suggested, even a nuclear response could be proportionate, and perhaps not escalate any further.

I agree with you that if our response was to fire a nuke at Moscow (or any major Russian city), then we've doomed ourselves and most of the world to a nuclear holocaust.


I don't think you or I need to worry about that. A nuclear war with Russia guarantees that the major population centers we live in would be unlivable.

Well.... NATO might not be at war with Russia but Russia sure as hell seems to be at war with NATO.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
11,791
8,347
136
Well we've been supplying weaponry to Ukraine for years now. And we supplied weaponry to the Mujhadeen in Afghanistan, after Russia (USSR) had supplied weapons to the Viet Minh. And then Russia supplied weapons and other support to the Taliban. This has been our relationship with Russia since WWII. We don't fight each other. We supply weapons to each others enemies.

I'm sure Putin doesn't like us supplying Ukraine with Polish MIGS, but then again they already knew we would do that, or something like it, before invading. Because those are the unwritten rules which have been around for a long time. I don't see it as much of a gamble on our part.

While true, those are all (stingers to Afghan militia, etc.) of a much smaller degree than a fleet of modern-ish fighters during the middle of open conflict that apparently will be flown out of a major US base (Ramstein) in theater. That logistical issue alone is ripe for misinterpretation. Especially given the ... lack of sophistication that RU has shown so far. Very easy for them to say "we observed a hostile flight originating from a NATO base on radar" and go from there. Entirely different than random, hard to trace, shipping origins for a case of stingers/javelins/etc..
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,102
136
The ones from the Czechs were serviceable and received a bunch of equipment to work with NATA\Western environments. The German Migs were...."rustic?"
They got some work done and the Israelis installed Netflix in them but from what I recall, Poland was planning to retire the entire fleet in 2025.

Wait, the Israelis installed what? Did the Poles want to catch up on episodes of "Orange is the New Black" and "Stranger Things" during dogfights?
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,569
12,681
146
While true, those are all (stingers to Afghan militia, etc.) of a much smaller degree than a fleet of modern-ish fighters during the middle of open conflict that apparently will be flown out of a major US base (Ramstein) in theater.
Slight correction, Ramstein is a NATO base, not a US base.
 

adamsleath

Member
May 4, 2007
118
40
101
Yeah, I think it's in our advantage politically to be slow to build up/react on our end and not seen to be the aggressor.

Global opinion and support for sanctions, anti-Russian sentiment is more critical at this point rather to increase military readiness for a counteroffensive.

We can quickly bring overwhelming force to bear if we want to, as the fecklessness of the Russian offensive lays this bare.

The only credible threat they do pose is murder-suicide by a nuclear exchange.

We will absolutely win a proxy war of attrition in Ukraine over the long term. Unfortunately this is bloody for the Ukrainians, but so are the alternatives. Protracted bloodletting of the Russian economy, military and support for Putin is the least worst option.
I expect Russian forces to close the vice on sieged cities.
It will get worse. Possibly.

But reading your post struck a chord with me.

While Putin remains they/ we are stuck playing this stupid destructive game.

I believe Putin is all in , to use a poker analogy.
Occupied territory is under martial law.
Compliance or punishment. Or exodus.
 
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pauldun170

Diamond Member
Sep 26, 2011
9,133
5,072
136
Wait, the Israelis installed what? Did the Poles want to catch up on episodes of "Orange is the New Black" and "Stranger Things" during dogfights?

The modernization included the implementation of modern avionics, advanced mission computers and a NATO compatible communication suite.
blah dee blah de blah blah blah
avionics suite is equipped with a MILStd-1533B data bus, mission computer which facilitates mission planning and post-flight analysis.
However, the change which was the most visible is the new data visualization system, consisting of a 5”x4” MFD and modern HUD display in the cockpit.

In other words,
Netflix
 
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