Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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Grey_Beard

Golden Member
Sep 23, 2014
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Thoughts?

US unable to determine Russian commander leading war in Ukraine: report

The Hill|32 minutes ago
The U.S. has reportedly not been able to establish if a single military commander is leading Russia's invasion of Ukraine.


So well concealed? Or so disorganized?

Put me in camp disorganized. This could explain much. No overall field command appears to exist - outside of a desk in Moscow.

Really looks like naval command is running ops independent of ground command, and similarly air ops doing their own thing. And ground command seems split between the fronts rather than coordinated.

They really are the superpower who could not shot straight. No better way to fool the place you are sieging than to have no coordination between your various forces. This all screams “GENUIS” to me. Definitely 4 level checkers.
 
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Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
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Putin is gonna start levelling city blocks any second now, for real real, he is gonna turn Mariupol into ruble and this will turn into a genuine humanitarian crisis times 100.

His men cant do shit on the streets, fuck they cant even operate a vehicle going straight down the road. They're not ready for that urban warfare by a long shot... So he will pull em back and shell the entire region. Hard. Wait for it.

Mariupol already is rubble. Virtually every building will have to be rebuilt. I believe Russia's primary purpose of Mariupol is as a bridge between Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
 

Grey_Beard

Golden Member
Sep 23, 2014
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Mariupol already is rubble. Virtually every building will have to be rebuilt. I believe Russia's primary purpose of Mariupol is as a bridge between Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

I think they are building either a road or a rock quarry with the buildings they are destroying. Who says the are not all about recycling?/s
 

trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,744
7,249
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Thoughts?

US unable to determine Russian commander leading war in Ukraine: report

The Hill|32 minutes ago
The U.S. has reportedly not been able to establish if a single military commander is leading Russia's invasion of Ukraine.


So well concealed? Or so disorganized?


Neither IMHO. It seems to me it's Putin micromanaging this mess that's the problem. Hitler had the same problem whereby both he and Putin's personal feelings, goals and bookmarks in history were/are of a higher priority than the advice he is getting from his generals.

There's also this issue of Putin mistrusting anyone and everyone that's a possible threat to his dictatorship, including his generals of which requires him to rely only on himself to make all those critical decisions that affect his hold on power.


edit - Just read K1052's post that preceded mine of which shares some similar sentiments. Looks to be a case of coincidental plagiarism it seems. Or is it that great minds think alike? j/k
 
Last edited:

Amused

Elite Member
Apr 14, 2001
56,070
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They really are the superpower who could not shot straight. No better way to fool the place you are sieging than to have no coordination between your various forces. This all screams “GENUIS” to me. Definitely 4 level checkers.

Why is Russia considered a "super power?"
They have an economy the size of Italy.

They have a military that, minus nukes, is third world at best.

I think Russia is pretty fucking far from a "superpower."

Nuclear power? Sure.

But they lack virtually everything else other than size.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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Neither IMHO. It seems to me it's Putin micromanaging this mess that's the problem. Hitler had the same problem whereby both he and Putin's personal feelings, goals and bookmarks in history were/are of a higher priority than the advice he is getting from his generals.

There's also this issue of Putin mistrusting anyone and everyone that's a possible threat to his dictatorship, including his generals of which requires him to rely only on himself to make all those critical decisions that affect his hold on power.


edit - Just read K1052's post that preceded mine of which shares some similar sentiments. Looks to be a case of coincidental plagiarism it seems. Or is it that great minds think alike? j/k

I think there are a number of valid parallels visible to those of us who know the history lol.
 
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Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
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Put me in camp disorganized. This could explain much. No overall field command appears to exist - outside of a desk in Moscow.

Really looks like naval command is running ops independent of ground command, and similarly air ops doing their own thing. And ground command seems split between the fronts rather than coordinated.
Bingo! Looks for all the world exactly like that.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
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This guy seems to think Ukraine is winning the war.


He's using an estimated 7k Russian troops dead, 14K wounded, 1500 vehicles lost, including 240 tanks. That's as of last Thursday, not today. Says Russia is currently losing 1000 troops a day.

Putin can’t hang on indefinitely if his army continues to suffer heavy losses; he won’t have much of a military left. Russian troops could still pause and regroup for another offensive, but their odds of success diminish by the day. The initial Russian goal of regime change already appears to be out of reach. Barring some unexpected development, Putin’s choices appear to be whether to lose quickly or slowly. Against all odds, the Ukrainians are actually winning.
 
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woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
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Yes but even the more conservative numbers cited in that article have Russia losing 1K per day to death or serious injury. That does not sound sustainable for much longer.

Right now I think the main worry is Putin will use nukes to avoid a humiliating loss. I think he actually might.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
35,799
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This guy seems to think Ukraine is winning the war.


He's using an estimated 7k Russian troops dead, 14K wounded, 1500 vehicles lost, including 240 tanks. That's as of last Thursday, not today. Says Russia is currently losing 1000 troops a day.
That's cool. I know nothing and called this on day 2 of the invasion.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
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Yes but even the more conservative numbers cited in that article have Russia losing 1K per day to death or serious injury. That does not sound sustainable for much longer.

Right now I think the main worry is Putin will use nukes to avoid a humiliating loss. I think he actually might.

There is a level between boots on ground, urban combat, and outright nuclear armageddon, depending on what success they have in Mariupol



But sure, if this fumbles for Putin as well. Nuclear? Who the fuck knows .
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
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Is there a number on Ukraine's military KIA?
If we trust the official number, around 10-14k. If we trust the casualty rate based on solider:senior officer ratios, likely more like 40k. If we trust the 'battlefield estimates' (3x official numbers), somewhere around 30-40k. Assume wounded to be 2-3x that number.
 
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esquared

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
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If we trust the official number, around 10-14k. If we trust the casualty rate based on solider:senior officer ratios, likely more like 40k. If we trust the 'battlefield estimates' (3x official numbers), somewhere around 30-40k. Assume wounded to be 2-3x that number.
So 10-14K Ukranian soldiers KIA?
That's similar to the estimate of Russian soldiers KIA.
 

esquared

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
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