Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[Jaskalas]

So "success" is a pretty relative term especially compared to basically all the larger aims for the war with Russia has had to give up on.

The Russians finally reduced their invasion ambitions down to their actual military capability.

Russian military may be suffering, but so are the Ukrainians.
This conflict carries a high price in blood.
And thus far Russia still has 10x the artillery VS the Ukrainians. I don't like where this exchange is going.

Russia may have required a force consolidation in order to form any sort of strength...
But Ukraine hasn't achieved any advance against the Russians. Kherson is a prime example of, however weak the Russians are... Ukrainian aren't fairing much better. We have kept them vastly under supplied and out gunned.

 

[Jaskalas]

A day without war crimes and genocide would be a day without Russia.

Russian missile strike hits shopping mall with more than 1,000 people inside
“The number of victims is impossible to imagine,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

 

[Brovane]

Russian military may be suffering, but so are the Ukrainians.
This conflict carries a high price in blood.
And thus far Russia still has 10x the artillery VS the Ukrainians. I don't like where this exchange is going.

Russia may have required a force consolidation in order to form any sort of strength...
But Ukraine hasn't achieved any advance against the Russians. Kherson is a prime example of, however weak the Russians are... Ukrainian aren't fairing much better. We have kept them vastly under supplied and out gunned.

The US cannot give the Ukrainians M1 Abrams and Patriot batteries and expect them to use them effectively with just a couple of weeks of training.

The US and other NATO countries have given the Ukrainian's a lot of weapons over the last several months. At the same time there is only so many NLAWS, Javelins or 155mm shells we can give the Ukrainian's because we only have so many in our warehouses.

 

[K1052]

The Russian artillery advantage also is not going to last at their rate of expenditure and with how aggressively Ukraine is now going after their big ammo dumps with GMLRS.

Large amounts of munitions have been seen loaded out of Belarus stocks for shipment to Russia indicating they are starting to run short.

 

[Leeea]

Russian military may be suffering, but so are the Ukrainians.
This conflict carries a high price in blood.
And thus far Russia still has 10x the artillery VS the Ukrainians. I don't like where this exchange is going.

Russia may have required a force consolidation in order to form any sort of strength...
But Ukraine hasn't achieved any advance against the Russians. Kherson is a prime example of, however weak the Russians are... Ukrainian aren't fairing much better. We have kept them vastly under supplied and out gunned.

It looks ugly in the micro.

But if we step back we can see Russian ammunition dumps have been exploding for the last week or so.


I would speculate the idea is the incoming GMLRS units will try to neutralize the Russian artillery advantage by taking out their ammo.


Example:
While Russia was hitting a shopping center today, Ukraine hit another large ammunition facility in Zymogorye, Luhansk:

Spoiler: youtube links

Russian Ammo storage in LNR exploding and fade away after ukrainian hit

The ammunition depot in Zymogorye in the occupied Luhansk region.This object is located about 50 km from the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

www.youtube.com

Rumors:
Reports of Russia is raiding Belarus ammunition reserves:

Spoiler: twitter link rumors

https://twitter.com/x/status/1540621598822219776

 

[NTMBK]

It looks ugly in the micro.

But if we step back we can see Russian ammunition dumps have been exploding for the last week or so.


I would speculate the idea is the incoming GMLRS units will try to neutralize the Russian artillery advantage by taking out their ammo.


Example:
While Russia was hitting a shopping center today, Ukraine hit another large ammunition facility in Zymogorye, Luhansk:

Spoiler: youtube links

Russian Ammo storage in LNR exploding and fade away after ukrainian hit

The ammunition depot in Zymogorye in the occupied Luhansk region.This object is located about 50 km from the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

www.youtube.com

Rumors:
Reports of Russia is raiding Belarus ammunition reserves:

Spoiler: twitter link rumors

https://twitter.com/x/status/1540621598822219776

This is how Ukraine can turn this around- use longer ranged Western weapons to take out ammo supplies and air defence systems. Leave the Russian troops deep in enemy territory, without supplies, and vulnerable to air strikes.

 

[Ajay]

This is how Ukraine can turn this around- use longer ranged Western weapons to take out ammo supplies and air defence systems. Leave the Russian troops deep in enemy territory, without supplies, and vulnerable to air strikes.

Air strikes are currently extremely difficult for both sides in this conflict. The numbers and combinations of Anti-Air defenses is limiting the usefulness of attack helos and fighter/bombers. Bottom line is that this isn't feasible yet.

It's not like Russia vs NATO. NATO would take out most of Russia's artillery before it even got to the front - never mind the ammo. The UKR is working on this, but have far fewer resources and engagement options to accomplish this. They are having some worthwhile successes with HIMARS and their own special forces teams (who are conducting sabotage missions in enemy territory, including within Russia's boarders).

 

[Leeea]

Air strikes are currently extremely difficult for both sides in this conflict. The numbers and combinations of Anti-Air defenses is limiting the usefulness of attack helos and fighter/bombers. Bottom line is that this isn't feasible yet.

It's not like Russia vs NATO. NATO would take out most of Russia's artillery before it even got to the front - never mind the ammo. The UKR is working on this, but have far fewer resources and engagement options to accomplish this. They are having some worthwhile successes with HIMARS and their own special forces teams (who are conducting sabotage missions in enemy territory, including within Russia's boarders).

I think that is why GMLRS rockets are going to hit particularly hard.

A GMLRS rocket is a small guided munition flying over Mach 3 in groups up to 24 with 200 lb warheads. The old surplus GLMRS rockets have 70 km range, but the current gen GMLRS-ER munitions have a 150 km range. I do not believe Russian air defense has managed to stop a single one so far.


If Ukraine can get enough ammo and targets for its GMLRS systems, breaking Russian air defense seems feasible. There are over 40,000 last gen 70 km GLMRS rounds floating around, so it is likely a question of logistics into Ukraine.

It is going to be a wait and see thing.

 

[Ajay]

I think that is why GMLRS rockets are going to hit particularly hard.

A GMLRS rocket is a small guided munition flying over Mach 3 in groups up to 24 with 200 lb warheads. The old surplus GLMRS rockets have 70 km range, but the current gen GMLRS-ER munitions have a 150 km range. I do not believe Russian air defense has managed to stop a single one so far.


If Ukraine can get enough ammo and targets for its GMLRS systems, breaking Russian air defense seems feasible. There are over 40,000 last gen 70 km GLMRS rounds floating around, so it is likely a question of logistics into Ukraine.

It is going to be a wait and see thing.

And ATACAMS, as the S300/S400s would be set pretty far back given their range. It's going to be a long wait and see, both sides are going to be under a lot of strain in the coming months. Current forecasts on the economic front are that it'll take till the end Q4 of this year** for the maximum pressure of sanctions to hit Russia - just as Europe will start really needing oil and NG .

** compared to earlier estimates of Q3. I hope the couple of reports I've seen are correct.

 

[K1052]

The old surplus GLMRS rockets have 70 km range, but the current gen GMLRS-ER munitions have a 150 km range.

M31 range is suspected to actually be 80-85km. Which lol if the Russians just read the wiki and figured their stuff was safe 70km out from the front.

 

[K1052]

And ATACAMS, as the S300/S400s would be set pretty far back given their range. It's going to be a long wait and see, both sides are going to be under a lot of strain in the coming months. Current forecasts on the economic front are that it'll take till the end Q4 of this year** for the maximum pressure of sanctions to hit Russia - just as Europe will start really needing oil and NG .

** compared to earlier estimates of Q3. I hope the couple of reports I've seen are correct.

If the Ukrainians end up with 15-20 launchers and a steady diet of rockets I'm not sure the Russians will make it to winter in the field.

 

[RnR_au]

Nice guys Baykar...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541489419932270592

 

[Jaskalas]

This is what Russia did to that shopping mall.

 

[Ajay]

If the Ukrainians end up with 15-20 launchers and a steady diet of rockets I'm not sure the Russians will make it to winter in the field.

I hope you are right. The Russians have a lot of artillery that needs taking out. I hope the UA is gearing up cold weather clothing for the winter - just to be sure. The G7 just agreed to provide $30B in humanitarian aide, funding for the government, etc. Ukraine really needs that right now.

 

[zinfamous]

Nice guys Baykar...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541489419932270592

lol, Bayraktar totally fancies himself a Tony Stark.

 

[Racan]

Martlet manpads in action

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541421911024046084

 

[K1052]

More things exploding in Luhansk

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541683444824023041

 

[cytg111]

Nice

 

[K1052]

Further French assistance

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541702441694928898

 

[Leeea]

Interesting update to yesterday's ammunition strike:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541470213710962694

If you look north west of the main fire, you will see a previously unreported Russian base was obliterated last night also. Most likely the result of a different strike.

There are more things going boom on the Russian side of the line then we are aware of.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

lol, Bayraktar totally fancies himself a Tony Stark.

Bayraktar can fancy himself an English tulip for all I care, as long as those purdy birds keep finding themselves over Ukrainian skies.

 

[Racan]

Shrapnel evidence that GMLRS is in use

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541777078164545536

 

[K1052]

Ukraine will receive 6 more PzH 2000s

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541836155548831746

 

[K1052]

sounds like there is a deal

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541847096533327874

and yup

https://twitter.com/x/status/1541850166390669313

 

[cytg111]

Hell yea