Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
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146
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
Just watching the clock tick by right now. Curious to see the UA's battle plan, as it unfolds. Hoping for a rought, on at least two Oblasts before winter, but we will see.
 

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,705
5,435
136
Good news story:

Basically:
Russian's were unloading ammunition from a train
so they decided to put up a heavy smoke screen to prevent HIMARS attacks
then an ammunition explosion occurred


Ignore the ineffectiveness of using a smoke screen like that, this is very good news. The Russians must be getting to the bottom of their reserves if they are handling ammunition that is so unstable that a bump is enough to make it go boom.

Also, unloading sensitive items under a smoke screen is a great idea. They should continue to do this. Excellent for efficiency and safety.
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
Good news story:

Basically:
Russian's were unloading ammunition from a train
so they decided to put up a heavy smoke screen to prevent HIMARS attacks
then an ammunition explosion occurred


Ignore the ineffectiveness of using a smoke screen like that, this is very good news. The Russians must be getting to the bottom of their reserves if they are handling ammunition that is so unstable that a bump is enough to make it go boom.

Also, unloading sensitive items under a smoke screen is a great idea. They should continue to do this. Excellent for efficiency and safety.
The more brain dead BS the Russian troops pull off, the more optimistic I become about about the upcoming UA offensive. Zelenski, of late, has been signaling less optimism - not sure why atm.
 
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Michael

Elite member
Nov 19, 1999
5,435
234
106
NYT today is somber about the offensive in the South, reporting that Russia has moved a lot of troops there and that they may be attacking there vs. defending.

So much happy talk in this thread about every missile strike, but Russia is way larger than the Ukraine with a much larger armed forces to draw on and little threat on their other borders.

The UA has inflicted horrific losses on Russia, but Russia has a very long history of that happening and continuing to grind forward until they win.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,880
34,834
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NYT today is somber about the offensive in the South, reporting that Russia has moved a lot of troops there and that they may be attacking there vs. defending.

So much happy talk in this thread about every missile strike, but Russia is way larger than the Ukraine with a much larger armed forces to draw on and little threat on their other borders.

The UA has inflicted horrific losses on Russia, but Russia has a very long history of that happening and continuing to grind forward until they win.

Troops they had to move from Donbas where they're now stalled out. Russia only has the resources available for major combat ops on one front and they have 3 large active fronts in country. Moving such large numbers of troops and material west of the river is also not without a lot of risk.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,058
38,568
136
NYT today is somber about the offensive in the South, reporting that Russia has moved a lot of troops there and that they may be attacking there vs. defending.

So much happy talk in this thread about every missile strike, but Russia is way larger than the Ukraine with a much larger armed forces to draw on and little threat on their other borders.

The UA has inflicted horrific losses on Russia, but Russia has a very long history of that happening and continuing to grind forward until they win.

Yes, you really don't care for people rejoicing in Ukrainian success, we've noticed. The Russian penchant for attrition and an imperious disregard towards losses and suffering have been noted in this thread before, and not just by me. Ditto for the population/size comparisons; you yourself have cited it numerous times. If you're going to base your post around an article you read, why not just link the article while you're at it?

Russian troops are reportedly not doing well, yet have so many fighters they need to recruit from abroad, hire more mercenaries, up'ed the age of volunteers to what, 60? Curious. Good thing they have plenty of well maintained tanks and IFVs right? Being able to muster 28k troops and get them to the right place is all well and good, but they can only do so much if there's a shortage of ammo.

Do you think any of this changes Russia's long term trajectory? We're still sending the necessities of war, plus drones, HIMARS and ammo. Meanwhile, Russia as a country continues to spiral the drain. Good luck with that birth rate, even if they do make kidnapping of Ukrainian children a state policy (currently now just a hobby). Putin's nest egg of 600billion to keep crucial things funded is being drained quickly, think I read analysts have estimated Putin's gone through more than half of it already. Russia needs Europe's money, and there is less of it to be had every month.

Zelenskyy is glum because he's fresh off the ICU rounds. Seeing his maimed and nearly dead soldiers, being so familiar with their sacrifices, it takes a toll even on people with enormous resolve. I hope it's not because he has intel regarding some new horror the Russians are going to perform, a 'chemical weapons accident' for instance.
 

Michael

Elite member
Nov 19, 1999
5,435
234
106
I don’t think a Twitter picture of a supposed missile strike at one place which gets posted day after day means as much as territory and ability to hold off attacks.

Russia is still attacking in the East, just at one place instead of two. And they have reinforced and may attack in the South.

I think they are really battered and have lost a lot of combat effectiveness but the same applies to the well trained elements of the Ukrainian Army as well.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,818
49,513
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I don’t think a Twitter picture of a supposed missile strike at one place which gets posted day after day means as much as territory and ability to hold off attacks.

Russia is still attacking in the East, just at one place instead of two. And they have reinforced and may attack in the South.

I think they are really battered and have lost a lot of combat effectiveness but the same applies to the well trained elements of the Ukrainian Army as well.
I agree pictures of missile strikes on Twitter are meaningless. Far more meaningful is territory and integrity of armed forces as you mention. What's really remarkable and shows how poorly the war is going for Russia is that despite expending massive amounts of effort all spring and summer they have very, very little territory to show for it.

If they really are planning an offensive in the south from my limited understanding the supply situation for them there is far more difficult than in the east. So if you're Ukraine and you're going to fight, seems like a good place to do it.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
Zelenskyy is glum because he's fresh off the ICU rounds. Seeing his maimed and nearly dead soldiers, being so familiar with their sacrifices, it takes a toll even on people with enormous resolve. I hope it's not because he has intel regarding some new horror the Russians are going to perform, a 'chemical weapons accident' for instance.
Thanks. I must have missed that while vacationing.
 
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RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
1,822
4,454
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NYT today is somber about the offensive in the South, reporting that Russia has moved a lot of troops there and that they may be attacking there vs. defending.
I heard they were light units. No heavy armour. Perhaps because it allows them to respond fast to incursions by the Ukrainians, but also allows them to retreat fast.

But I don't believe the forces are suitable for offensive ops.
 
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Amused

Elite Member
Apr 14, 2001
56,002
14,532
146
Reportedly video of the GMLRS strike on the Russian supply train at Brylivka, Kherson Oblast.

One of the major problems for the Russians in Kherson is the very limited routes by which a force can be reinforced and resupplied. All of which are being watched closely by the Ukrainians.


I watch that and all I can think of is this...

 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
Reportedly video of the GMLRS strike on the Russian supply train at Brylivka, Kherson Oblast.

One of the major problems for the Russians in Kherson is the very limited routes by which a force can be reinforced and resupplied. All of which are being watched closely by the Ukrainians.
I realize that Ukraine's focus will likely be on the Donbass, but I’d rather see them take back the south first in Kherson and Zakarpattia. Isolate Crimea again and shutdown some critical rail lines. Then again, I’m not UkrainIan nor am I anything more than an armchair general.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,880
34,834
136
Also sounds like Ukraine hit the Antonovsky rail bridge again tonight, shorty after Russia completed repairs. Assuming the line has been out of commission at Brylivka for the past few days due to massive damage and the need to clear UXO before getting to work on repairs even if they are done soon they likely can't get a train into Kherson City. Supply of this front by train within GMLRS range seems....quite problematic.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,880
34,834
136
I realize that Ukraine's focus will likely be on the Donbass, but I’d rather see them take back the south first in Kherson and Zakarpattia. Isolate Crimea again and shutdown some critical rail lines. Then again, I’m not UkrainIan nor am I anything more than an armchair general.

Putin still wants Odessa and getting pushed to the other side of the river ruins that plan for good. Even if it wasn't going to happen anyway and they have to try to keep on the western bank no matter the cost.
 
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