Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,019
38,496
136
Saw recently they found stuff on a Russia KIA that indicated he had just signed a 6 month contract and was 44 years old. That seems a mite desperate for manpower.

They've been pressing Donbas residents into service haven't they?

Wagner's been gutted pretty bad apparently. Just heard they lost another one of their battalion commanders. Sounds like mortar boy was on the business end of a Switchblade.

Sergei Kononov, currently assigned to sunflower fertilizing duty
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,539
13,109
136
Hmmm... with shit heating up with China ... Dominos ... Can the west afford to NOT make an example out of Russia by now? Should probably pour a hundred HIMARS into Ukraine along with longer ranging missiles.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,850
34,790
136
I'm half wondering if the Russians would be stupid enough to try resupplying Kherson by ship, off a coast with capable ASMs, though a narrow strait that is absolutely being watched, and in broad daylight.
 

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,697
5,431
136
Yeah like I said earlier in this thread the days of massed armored spearheads are waaaaaaaay over. When you try that in modern warfare you get this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death

not always:

Various US Armored Brigades executed thunder run raids on Baghdad.

I think this is what Russia was planning, they just ran out of gas.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,571
7,634
136
I do wonder what all those people who wanted to join Russia think of being essentially a part of Russia now.

They'd tell you, but Russia killed them through forced conscription.
Now Russia is importing Russians to populate Ukraine.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,571
7,634
136
Hmmm... with shit heating up with China ... Dominos ... Can the west afford to NOT make an example out of Russia by now? Should probably pour a hundred HIMARS into Ukraine along with longer ranging missiles.

We should just do it ourselves.
 
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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,834
8,302
136
This latest comprehension fail makes me suspect English is not your first language, is that correct? Honest question.

You're pulling a victim card again; no one is making up rules or even directing you to them - you're being asked support your positions (again) with source links, and it's curious why you still can't bring yourself to do that. We're making a concerted effort to prevent misinformation here I thought, does that not align with your priorities?

Read my last comment on legwork again, think about it. This isn't hard to understand Mike, or shouldn't be.
IIRC, he (Michael) said he's German and I figure likely in Germany.
 

Michael

Elite member
Nov 19, 1999
5,435
234
106
This latest comprehension fail makes me suspect English is not your first language, is that correct? Honest question.

You're pulling a victim card again; no one is making up rules or even directing you to them - you're being asked support your positions (again) with source links, and it's curious why you still can't bring yourself to do that. We're making a concerted effort to prevent misinformation here I thought, does that not align with your priorities?

Read my last comment on legwork again, think about it. This isn't hard to understand Mike, or shouldn't be.
🤣🤣🤣

No, I have done “legwork” and you are not my mother. I also don’t go by Mike, but it is the standard shorthand for my name so it does not offend me.
 

Michael

Elite member
Nov 19, 1999
5,435
234
106
IIRC, he (Michael) said he's German and I figure likely in Germany.
I am Canadian (and now a US citizen as well), living in the USA and English is my first language.

My mother is Ukrainian, born in a refugee camp after WW2. My middle name is from my Didi and I ate a ton of Ukrainian food growing up cooked by Baba.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,019
38,496
136
🤣🤣🤣

No, I have done “legwork” and you are not my mother. I also don’t go by Mike, but it is the standard shorthand for my name so it does not offend me.


I'm not trying to offend you, I'm trying to understand why you are so committed to not being taken seriously, why the aversion to support your own beliefs with a simple link. I guess we'll have to add 'legwork' to the list of things you either don't understand or are pretending not to, what a shame.

No, not trying to be your mother, though I do hope she doesn't frequent this forum. Does she know about your laziness, your inability to answer simple direct questions? As a parent myself I would be sad to see that in my offspring. Man up dude.

No worries Mike. At least we're both laughing, right?
 
Last edited:

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,019
38,496
136
I am Canadian (and now a US citizen as well), living in the USA and English is my first language.

My mother is Ukrainian, born in a refugee camp after WW2. My middle name is from my Didi and I ate a ton of Ukrainian food growing up cooked by Baba.


Cool.

So we can't blame English fluency for your comprehension fails. Understood.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,850
34,790
136
US/UK anti-tank weapons still inflicting major damage and declining quality of Russian equipment/manning.


Lt. Col. Bohdan Dmytruk is another fan of the anti-armor system. A battalion commander in Ukraine’s 93rd brigade, Dmytruk said he’s seen a decline in the quality of tanks Russians are using on the front lines. He has an intimate understanding of his enemy — his battalion was fighting the same Russian brigade in the Sumy region, farther north, earlier in the war, and they are now facing off again in the Kharkiv region.

The tanks the Russians are using now are older, Dmytruk said, because Javelins and similar weapons have depleted their arsenal. Even the crews operating the tanks now are less experienced, often not even managing to fire on Dmytruk’s forces before they’re taken out, he said, because they didn’t properly load the ammunition.

“The Ukrainian military basically destroyed their newest tanks and infantry combat vehicles in the first wave of fighting,” Dmytruk said. “The last vehicle of theirs we damaged just a couple days ago was a BMP-1, which is one of their oldest models. They would’ve had that one sitting in storage for a long time, so they’re really emptying out their stocks right now.”


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/05/ukraine-war-javelins-russia-tanks/
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,875
10,300
136
I've been trying to think of an example for awhile but haven't thought of any. Has there been any major war of attrition won by the aggressor since the beginning of WWI? I mean I guess it depends on how you define a war of attrition. But I can only think aggressor win in Blitzkrieg style and if that fails turning into stalemate, eventually it has been the aggressor that is pushed out.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,788
49,450
136
I've been trying to think of an example for awhile but haven't thought of any. Has there been any major war of attrition won by the aggressor since the beginning of WWI? I mean I guess it depends on how you define a war of attrition. But I can only think aggressor win in Blitzkrieg style and if that fails turning into stalemate, eventually it has been the aggressor that is pushed out.
I don’t think you will find one. Wars of attrition are very costly and so if a power thinks that’s how it’s going to end up they probably don’t start the war to begin with. A war of attrition essentially means a failed war plan.
 

Michael

Elite member
Nov 19, 1999
5,435
234
106
I've been trying to think of an example for awhile but haven't thought of any. Has there been any major war of attrition won by the aggressor since the beginning of WWI? I mean I guess it depends on how you define a war of attrition. But I can only think aggressor win in Blitzkrieg style and if that fails turning into stalemate, eventually it has been the aggressor that is pushed out.

The last one I can think of was Iraq/Iran.

Maybe US in Afghanistan is another example.
 

Michael

Elite member
Nov 19, 1999
5,435
234
106
“Ukraine is likely seizing the strategic initiative and forcing Russia to reallocate forces and reprioritize efforts in response to Ukrainian counteroffensive operations. Russian forces are increasingly transferring personnel and equipment to Kherson and western Zaporizhia Oblasts at the expense of their efforts to seize Slovyansk and Siversk, which they appear to have abandoned. Russian forces are also redeploying military equipment – artillery and aviation in particular – to Crimea from elsewhere in Ukraine.”


This is the high level blog that I follow.

Major media tends to focus more on the human side, I have turned to this blog for other insights for quite a while. I also have an investment bank that sends geopolitical updates out and I am on that mailing list.

This is zero argument that Russia failed to achieve their initial goals anywhere but the South. My concerns are centered around the price that Ukraine paid to make that happen. If they cannot push Russia out and they annex and start to absorb what they took, 5 years from now they can just attack again and Ukraine will be way weaker as their economy will continue to be destroyed.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,875
10,300
136
The last one I can think of was Iraq/Iran.

Maybe US in Afghanistan is another example.
Didn't Iraq start that war and eventually give up? (Agresser lost)

I wouldn't really consider US/Afghanistan a war of attrition we took over pretty quickly, but either way we ended up leaving.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,850
34,790
136
This is zero argument that Russia failed to achieve their initial goals anywhere but the South. My concerns are centered around the price that Ukraine paid to make that happen. If they cannot push Russia out and they annex and start to absorb what they took, 5 years from now they can just attack again and Ukraine will be way weaker as their economy will continue to be destroyed.

For this to work for the Russians three things need to happen 1) western military aid has to be substantially reduced and 2) the Ukrainians have to agree to stop fighting 3) sanctions on western components have to be lifted. None of those things appear to be happening soon so Russia is faced with at least some more months or potentially another year of how things have been going.

If Putin just tired to take Donbas this would have been over long ago but he way overcommitted and his military is having decades of military production expended/incinerated and no longer getting much gain out of it. This can only go on for so long.
 
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