Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,609
12,733
146
Everybody realizes that a ceasefire just freezes the situation in Russia's advantage and they'll be back for more in a few years. Don't let them disengage and keep arming the Ukrainians. As far as US taxpayer expenditures the destruction of the Russian military is cheap at triple the price.
This is one of those really rare situations in life where there's clear good guys and bad guys, in the trillions of dollars we've spent for much more 'muddled' reasons, nobody should have an ounce of give a shit on this one unless they're a sympathizer for rapists and murderers.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,019
38,496
136
Well said Osiris.


I wish I could go over and help. If I was single I'd like to think I'd be over there already, bad knees and all. Fighting against Putin's fascism, or at least helping support those who are, isn't something I can do with a disabled spouse, the kids, and being the sole source of income. Who knows though. If this war ends up going on long enough, add to it kids getting older plus maybe just a touch of divorce, maybe I'll be posting in this thread from Kyiv someday. I have a feeling I'm going to miss it. Still a few years until my eldest can drive a car for his mom. For now I will continue to donate and send business Ukraine's way whenever I can.
 
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Reactions: Tsinni Dave

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,850
34,790
136
It occurs to me that forcing the Russians to shift such a large force to Kherson Oblast which has very limited lines of supply could have some major drawbacks for the Russians if the Ukrainians get ahold of a large quantity of GMLRS rockets.

If the Ukrainians can keep chopping up the supply routes while counter attacking the Russians would have a real big problem. Yes they Russians can repair stuff like this relatively quickly but the route is useless if holes are continually punched in it and supplies cannot get through.

 

bononos

Diamond Member
Aug 21, 2011
3,894
162
106
OMG, the politics and news forum that I have been posting on for decades may not view what I say in the best of light.

I cited the source - CNBC and the headline is basically the article. Some posters here seem to feel that only relentless and poorly sources messages that are relentlessly positive about Ukraine are fine.

More somber but still supportive posts, now those need extra support.

My only reason for the more downbeat posts I make is because the UA is getting hammered daily and have lost a lot of their experienced and highly trained soldiers. They have been mounting a heroic defense of their home. Amazing courage and execution against a foe that most thought would make short work of them.

However, losing slowly is still losing. If they do not keep getting a constant stream of weapons and supplies and support, that losing slowly may be losing faster.

Excessive hopes about a southern offensive can be dangerous as well. Russia has troops there and is moving more in.

So far Ukraine has done way better than I thought and I really to the bottom of my heart hope it continues and even improves. But I am not going to ignore that they still are in a very bad situation.

When I posted about a month ago about Russia now having the edge after learning from their earlier mistakes and have now got the Ukrainians on their back foot I was lambasted as a 'turncoat'. You're right about the relentlessly positive atmosphere here on this thread. Instead of reflecting on the turn of events on how Russia managed to seize Severodonetsk/Lysychansk rather easily compared to the strong impression that the Ukrainian leadership gave that Severodonetsk was going to hold and were themselves funneling lots of resources to hold the city and the Donetsk campaign in general, there was the relentlessly positive themes on how Russia was going to run out of ammo/soldiers/tanks.

When I said (link) that Ukrainian units were posting their own videos about refusing orders to fight because of low morale and other problems, or that the Russians have coped and somewhat overcame the initial problems they had with drones like the Bayraktar - I was accused of lying. Only positive news allowed it seems. No bad news about Ukrainian soldiers or their heavy weapons getting left behind in the Lysychansk retreat seen here.

Sen Victoria Spartz brought up the issue of corruption which is a real problem even without the Russian invasion, when only 30% of donated supplies of weapons reaches the front lines, something is really wrong.

Now Ukraine seems to have a counter offensive going on in Kherson very soon (or has it started already), and seems to be sanguine enough to pull resources from Donetsk to add to the offensive. In the meantime Russia is making moves on Bakhmut. Any day now Russia is going to run out of steam and start retreating.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,019
38,496
136
When I posted about a month ago about Russia now having the edge after learning from their earlier mistakes and have now got the Ukrainians on their back foot I was lambasted as a 'turncoat'.



Oh? I just took a look and all I see is you telling Leeea to stop with insults while giving Russia (the side committed genocide and war crimes) the benefit of a doubt while criticizing others for reveling in the success of the underdog. Is said underdog holding it's own really a scenario you just can't picture people being glad about? Yes how dare people be happy that democracy and a free people are still around and not dead or subjugated. Mike was chastised for making posts and updates while expecting others to do his legwork to vet his arguments, and has since provided source links. This is not the same thing as you believing the forum considers you a "turn coat."

Why the butthurt over this "relentless positivity"? Look no one cares what you think if you can't substantiate it, pretty simple really. If your sources can't be corroborated or rely on leaps of faith and assumptions, maybe find better sources. Ukraine and those defending it don't have the credibility deficit that Russians/GQP do, but if there is something here that is incorrect you should point it out so someone can check, maybe make a correction. We're less concerned about your feels.

No one can accuse you of lying if you vet your sources and engage in good faith honest debate. If they do, ignore them.

Sen Victoria Spartz brought up the issue of corruption which is a real problem even without the Russian invasion, when only 30% of donated supplies of weapons reaches the front lines, something is really wrong.

Maybe this is an example of what others were talking about earlier. Maybe this outrage of yours over all that "relentless positivity" prevents you from noticing info that explains things?

Sen. Victoria Spartz (never heard of her) is quoting an estimate from a Lithuanian guy, who "relies largely on unofficial channels to deliver his supplies, which can include anything from night-vision scopes and radios to Kevlar vests, ballistic helmets and modern drones, which have proven to be essential eyes in the sky for breaking through stalemates on the battlefield. His group's status as an NGO does not permit him to deliver "lethal weapons."

Do you have anything official, anything conclusive, that would indicate Ukraine's progress is being hampered by only getting 30%-40% from a Lithuanian aid group? Weapons go missing in every conflict, supplies are sold by crooks taking advantage of instability. It happens. Is it enough to hamper Ukraine's fight? Based on what I've seen I don't think so. Feel free to source something that actually addresses what you are talking about I guess.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,787
49,449
136
When I posted about a month ago about Russia now having the edge after learning from their earlier mistakes and have now got the Ukrainians on their back foot I was lambasted as a 'turncoat'. You're right about the relentlessly positive atmosphere here on this thread. Instead of reflecting on the turn of events on how Russia managed to seize Severodonetsk/Lysychansk rather easily compared to the strong impression that the Ukrainian leadership gave that Severodonetsk was going to hold and were themselves funneling lots of resources to hold the city and the Donetsk campaign in general, there was the relentlessly positive themes on how Russia was going to run out of ammo/soldiers/tanks.

When I said (link) that Ukrainian units were posting their own videos about refusing orders to fight because of low morale and other problems, or that the Russians have coped and somewhat overcame the initial problems they had with drones like the Bayraktar - I was accused of lying. Only positive news allowed it seems. No bad news about Ukrainian soldiers or their heavy weapons getting left behind in the Lysychansk retreat seen here.

Sen Victoria Spartz brought up the issue of corruption which is a real problem even without the Russian invasion, when only 30% of donated supplies of weapons reaches the front lines, something is really wrong.

Now Ukraine seems to have a counter offensive going on in Kherson very soon (or has it started already), and seems to be sanguine enough to pull resources from Donetsk to add to the offensive. In the meantime Russia is making moves on Bakhmut. Any day now Russia is going to run out of steam and start retreating.
You didn’t read your own linked article - it is explicitly not about weapons.

Really though this is just about looking at the conflict realistically - after rapid initial advances Russia has spent the last five months or so expensing huge quantities of men and material with almost nothing to show for it. If Russia were capable of making significant advances they would be. They clearly are not.
 
Reactions: RnR_au and Leeea

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,850
34,790
136
Very interesting, so what sort of aircraft launched the missile? AFAIK only western aircraft can. Could it be so easy to integrate on their Migs or Sukhois?

Either they figured out a way to adapt some US missiles to the Soviet planes or other things are in the air nobody is talking about.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,019
38,496
136
My guess is Gray Eagle drones have been fitted with HARM, they already can use Hellfire. I imagine that would be less work than getting our guidance and targeting goodies to work with Russian architecture from the 80s and 90s.

And yeah, making the enemy blind is one of the reasons Americans are good at taking other countries apart. Helping Ukraine do it to Russia is just one more nail in that orcish coffin. We make this happen along with widespread NASAMS coverage and they are proper fucked no matter what's happening with their logistics. Going to be rough winter for Russians in Ukraine.
 
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Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,697
5,431
136
More reports of grain ships:

Maybe famine will be avoided. Hard to say, supply is still restricted and fertilizer prices are still way up.
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,269
5,134
136
Either they figured out a way to adapt some US missiles to the Soviet planes or other things are in the air nobody is talking about.

My guess is some modernised Warsaw Pact airframe. We know that programs are floating around, like the Romanian Mig-21 Lancer: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...he-mig-21-lancers-it-just-grounded-to-ukraine An Israeli company put a modern NATO compatible avionic package in it, and now it can launch NATO munitions.

Either something like this was handed over from a friendly nation, or someone has been upgrading Ukrainian hardware behind the scenes.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,019
38,496
136
My guess is some modernised Warsaw Pact airframe. We know that programs are floating around, like the Romanian Mig-21 Lancer: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...he-mig-21-lancers-it-just-grounded-to-ukraine An Israeli company put a modern NATO compatible avionic package in it, and now it can launch NATO munitions.

Either something like this was handed over from a friendly nation, or someone has been upgrading Ukrainian hardware behind the scenes.

Hell yeah!

I hadn't heard about that modernization effort over in Romania, great news and yes that would work for all involved really. A timely and flexible bit of help right there. And as your article noted, Romania already has F-16s. This is a great chance to ditch Soviet era hardware and replace with fully NATO compatible weapons. I'm sure we can give them some good deals on used replacements, or maybe they want some Rafales. This is the perfect trade up point folks, get in on it.
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,269
5,134
136
Hell yeah!

I hadn't heard about that modernization effort over in Romania, great news and yes that would work for all involved really. A timely and flexible bit of help right there. And as your article noted, Romania already has F-16s. This is a great chance to ditch Soviet era hardware and replace with fully NATO compatible weapons. I'm sure we can give them some good deals on used replacements, or maybe they want some Rafales. This is the perfect trade up point folks, get in on it.

Supposedly some MiG-29s were also updated to be NATO compatible? So maybe some of those trades went through too.
 
Reactions: Leeea

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,850
34,790
136
My guess is some modernised Warsaw Pact airframe. We know that programs are floating around, like the Romanian Mig-21 Lancer: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...he-mig-21-lancers-it-just-grounded-to-ukraine An Israeli company put a modern NATO compatible avionic package in it, and now it can launch NATO munitions.

Either something like this was handed over from a friendly nation, or someone has been upgrading Ukrainian hardware behind the scenes.

I agree something like this is most likely. It is going to be a little disconcerting to the Russians to have Ukrainian planes that can mount NATO munitions flying about. Access to the US air launched missile arsenal is a big deal.
 
Reactions: NTMBK and Leeea

KompuKare

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2009
1,073
1,113
136
Maybe famine will be avoided. Hard to say, supply is still restricted and fertilizer prices are still way up.
Yes, but never mind fertilizer prices - large areas in Ukraine are going to remain unplanted and unharvested as it's simply too dangerous. And those areas RF has taken, have been taken with their favourite tactic: flatten everything with artillery so even when the war ends it will takes ages to recover.
During the war? Well, RF could try and plant some settlers in a warzone but can't see that working that well (as well as being clearly illegal in international law for very good reason).
 
Reactions: Leeea

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,850
34,790
136
Non-ballistic trajectory and a brightly lit motor all the way in....certainly seems like Ukraine has some ARMs working.

edit: apparently some claims that Ukraine took down several S-300 sites and a Pantsir yesterday. Then there is that fin from an AGM-88. And now what really looks like an ARM strike caught on video.

 
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RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
1,820
4,450
106
An interesting read (nothing new here to regulars of this thread) from a surprisingly sober Russian analyst;


And a bit of a win in the hidden behind the scenes war;
 
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