Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,819
29,571
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Earlier this week, I received some not-exactly subtle suggestions that ATACMS had been in place for some time already?
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,881
34,834
136
Earlier this week, I received some not-exactly subtle suggestions that ATACMS had been in place for some time already?

It is a matter of some debate if Ukraine has obtained or made operational some new limited SRBM capability like ATACMS or the Grom. The US mostly denies having supplied ATACMS directly but that’s not technically the only way they could have found their way into the country. A lot of stuff had been exploding in rapid succession beyond the 85-90 kilometer range of regular GMLRS rockets which is raising questions.

The Excalibur M982 shell is good for ranges about half that with a much smaller explosive yield but is also somewhat cheaper (50% ?) than a GMLRS rocket. The US likely has a decent stock of them, at least several thousand rounds worth, available for use and they are still in production.
 
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RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
1,822
4,455
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Some interesting bits from the daily livestream with Aleksey Arestovych;
  • An intercepted Russian army communication between battalion-brigade in the South & command shows massive losses & lack of reinforcements on the ground coupled with hysteric response of the command & loss of the situational control. Another alarming sign for the Russians is that the Russian command did not count the casualties when collecting the bodies.
  • The attacks on Kharkiv & Bakhmut are likely to continue, as are the attempts to make tactical gains in the Donetsk region. Yet, the alleged Putin’s goal to occupy the rest of the Donetsk region [~45%] by 15/09 is unattainable. Moreover, the Russian army is incapable of taking any major city in the region.
  • In addition, the anti-Russian coalition is growing, & the number of Ramstein members has surpassed the WWII anti-Hitler coalition.
  • The US representatives have stated that the US gave Ukraine all the necessary means to de-occupy Kherson. More surprises from UAF are to come. Arestovych only asks for patience & continued support.
Source
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,881
34,834
136

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,084
38,615
136
Things are starting to come off the rails in Russia:

This is also likely to nerf the Russian truck sector also. As parts wear out, replacements are not to be found. The slow corrosion of what remains of the Russian economy.


Yasss. That's the stuff I've been waiting on last, idk, 300 pages? Specifically the train system, as it moves the vast majority of everything they need and is quite dependent on bearings and other items coming from the West. Now add in what has happened with their planes and airports.

Russia is on borrowed time. Maybe not a break up, but good chance we'll start to see a form of regionalism where Russian areas compete with one another for resources, business, influence. Goodbye wanna be superpower prestige, see ya domestic space program, toodles international trade deals and modern economy. Have fun wiping China's ass, and do remember to thank Putin for it.
 

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,707
5,441
136
Perun has another excellent power point up:

58min 40sec starts in on why social media propagandists like whyitso is Russia's best chance, and it is a long chance at that.


To sum it up, as long as the free world continues to support Ukraine, Russia's position is completely hopeless. Ukraine is willing to fight this war for the foreseeable future. Russia's only chance is to convince the free world to drop support to Ukraine.


Russia's only chance of victory is for whyitso to convince us to drop support for Ukraine. If he fails, Russia will lose this war. Whyitso and others like him is Russia's last hope, and Ukraine's most dangerous enemy.
 

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,707
5,441
136
Ukrainian propagandist and former airline pilot Denys Davydov has been releasing informative videos, suggest checking him out:

I like him. He does not pretend to be neutral, and gives a great update nearly everyday of the Ukrainian perspective of the war. His daily map updates are especially good.


I also feel he is a courageous man. The orcs will murder him if they get a chance.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,819
29,571
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Yasss. That's the stuff I've been waiting on last, idk, 300 pages? Specifically the train system, as it moves the vast majority of everything they need and is quite dependent on bearings and other items coming from the West. Now add in what has happened with their planes and airports.

Russia is on borrowed time. Maybe not a break up, but good chance we'll start to see a form of regionalism where Russian areas compete with one another for resources, business, influence. Goodbye wanna be superpower prestige, see ya domestic space program, toodles international trade deals and modern economy. Have fun wiping China's ass, and do remember to thank Putin for it.

Mafia rule really does seem like a bad idea for large countries that want to be relevant.

I wish our own republicans would come to understand this, but they seem hell-bent on taking the USA this way as well. Let's hope they get thumped over the next couple of years and disappear; otherwise most of us will be stuck here a few decades from now (or less) watching Idiocrats trying to invade Mexico for no reason, and lots of US-based whitsyos posting on French internet boards trying to convince them that the United State's attempt to eradicate "Nazi Mexicans" is totally legitimate and also of course not a genocide. etc.
 

RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
1,822
4,455
106
A good read!
In the case of this Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson Oblast, it looks like not only the Russians, or armies of Putin-fans in the West, but even many of Western ‘experts’ are meanwhile jumping to similar conclusions: Ukrainian offensive ‘must have failed’ — because they expect it to fail.

Now, whether it is so that they think Ukrainians can’t fight, can’t do better, that the GenStab-U was not cautious enough or whatever, is a different reason. Indeed, and ironically, for months already, different people were complaining about ‘overcautious’ GenStab-U, and demanding ‘counteroffensives’: now when one is taking place, then the same GenStab-U is ‘not cautious enough’, and the operation is ‘failing’…?

Point is: although both sides (Kyiv and Moscow) are next-to zip-lip about what’s going on, when one cross-checks available information, conclusions are quite clear, actually. Here an example based on something like 15–20 minutes of ‘scrounging’ the internet.
https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/u...ainian-attacks-in-kherson-oblast-ed25239f3116

Edit: another good read. The Wagner Group deny that there was any amphibious assault by Ukraine.

 
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whyitso

Member
Aug 25, 2022
104
81
61
Russia is on borrowed time. Maybe not a break up, but good chance we'll start to see a form of regionalism where Russian areas compete with one another for resources, business, influence. Goodbye wanna be superpower prestige, see ya domestic space program, toodles international trade deals and modern economy.
Yes, it's exact reason why Russia should win. The price of defeat would be monstrously high. You speak directly about the division of Russia. No matter how I feel about Putin, no one wants their country destroyed. All that remains is to fight to victory and support Putin.

The more bias, the more cries of genocide without going into the definition of the word, the more the lies of the victim country are supported, the easier it is for Putin to convince the citizens that the West intends to destroy Russia and therefore needs a complete mobilization and transfer of the entire economy to a war footing.
 
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[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,651
12,776
146
Yes, it's exact reason why Russia should win. The price of defeat would be monstrously high. You speak directly about the division of Russia. No matter how I feel about Putin, no one wants their country destroyed. All that remains is to fight to victory and support Putin.

The more bias, the more cries of genocide without going into the definition of the word, the more the lies of the victim country are supported, the easier it is for Putin to convince the citizens that the West intends to destroy Russia and therefore needs a complete mobilization and transfer of the entire economy to a war footing.
I mean, Russia as you know it has only been around for a couple decades, maybe they just got it wrong this time and it needs to try again? Maybe with less of a horror show for leadership?
 

whyitso

Member
Aug 25, 2022
104
81
61
I mean, Russia as you know it has only been around for a couple decades, maybe they just got it wrong this time and it needs to try again? Maybe with less of a horror show for leadership?
How it possible? The opposition is suppressed and scattered. All the media, all the power structures and elites are in control. There is plenty of money to support them. The income of the citizens is satisfactory so that they do not openly express displeasure. Change through disaster is probably not worth it. And the result is not predictable; the new government may be worse than the previous one, not only for the citizens, but for the world as a whole.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,561
13,120
136
Yes, it's exact reason why Russia should win. The price of defeat would be monstrously high. You speak directly about the division of Russia. No matter how I feel about Putin, no one wants their country destroyed. All that remains is to fight to victory and support Putin.

The more bias, the more cries of genocide without going into the definition of the word, the more the lies of the victim country are supported, the easier it is for Putin to convince the citizens that the West intends to destroy Russia and therefore needs a complete mobilization and transfer of the entire economy to a war footing.
Its already done. You can be stuck in the past and drag it out, make it worse - like you're doing now - OR you can focus on a better brighter future for the motherland.
 
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whyitso

Member
Aug 25, 2022
104
81
61
Geolocated video indicates they may have captured Ozerne across the river.
They crossed the river, made some pictures in abandoned village and left it, because it has no strategic value and located in the lowlands.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,561
13,120
136
Yes, after the victory.
Cant be done. You already lost. You are like a dead man walking oblivious to his own circumstances. Only thing Russia is accomplishing in Ukraine right now is prolonging the misery and upping the body count.
For Russia to tip the scales you’d have to mass mobilize, chemical even tactical… And then you run the very real risk of a NATO response. You ready for this? Nuclear winter would “solve” global warming I guess, but, that what you want?

Putin fucked you over. We did not.

And hey, see if the fucker has wings, if he can fly, make the democratic reforms and everyone here will be welcoming open arms. End of Putin is not end of Russia. Besides what is Russia anyway? I dont have kinship with people just cause we’re born under the same flag. Fuck the flag. I have kinship with free brothers and sisters all round the planet.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,819
29,571
146
Yes, it's exact reason why Russia should win. The price of defeat would be monstrously high. You speak directly about the division of Russia. No matter how I feel about Putin, no one wants their country destroyed. All that remains is to fight to victory and support Putin.

The more bias, the more cries of genocide without going into the definition of the word, the more the lies of the victim country are supported, the easier it is for Putin to convince the citizens that the West intends to destroy Russia and therefore needs a complete mobilization and transfer of the entire economy to a war footing.

This is interesting. You call them lies of the west but they are Putin's lies. You simply take Putin's lies as justification of what you think Putin needs to do to keep Russia intact.

You refuse to accept that this is all that Putin has done, and nothing more. Russia is perfectly free to leave Ukraine entirely and end the declared genocide, but you do not accept this option. Why is that? Why are you convinced that Russia was forced to invade a free country and start Genocide? I still don't understand your basis for why it was necessary for Russia to invade and do genocide.
 

VRAMdemon

Diamond Member
Aug 16, 2012
6,576
7,823
136
Yes, it's exact reason why Russia should win. The price of defeat would be monstrously high. You speak directly about the division of Russia. No matter how I feel about Putin, no one wants their country destroyed. All that remains is to fight to victory and support Putin.

The more bias, the more cries of genocide without going into the definition of the word, the more the lies of the victim country are supported, the easier it is for Putin to convince the citizens that the West intends to destroy Russia and therefore needs a complete mobilization and transfer of the entire economy to a war footing.

Per the bolding: - Let me see if I'm reading this right, you say "no one wants their country destroyed", but you seem to be A-OK with the country of Ukraine destroyed?!
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,651
12,776
146
How it possible? The opposition is suppressed and scattered. All the media, all the power structures and elites are in control. There is plenty of money to support them. The income of the citizens is satisfactory so that they do not openly express displeasure. Change through disaster is probably not worth it. And the result is not predictable; the new government may be worse than the previous one, not only for the citizens, but for the world as a whole.
Hell if I know, that's your problem to figure out. Just know that Russia will lose this conflict, and they are going to be locked down worse than Cuba until the current regime doesn't exist, and the new regime looks nothing like it. Best case scenario, Russia becomes a vassal state of China. If you're looking for someone to blame in 30 years, remember this conversation and remember the name Putin.
 
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