Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[K1052]

The US is gonna make a fucking fortune off Putin's misstep.

South Koreans going to do real well too. They can produce large quantities of sophisticated arms quickly.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Liberation at Balakliya.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567893869898989572

 

[Roger Wilco]

Russian forces almost cut off in Izyum.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567895908020256769

 

[kage69]

lol!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567580739440451584

Made me think of

 

[kage69]

A broad brush used in this one, but still funny

 

[kage69]

FWIW, as an American I'm proud that my country is standing with Ukraine, that our weapons and intel are being put to such effective use in defense of freedom and democracy. But I've long felt Poland is the real hero here, first among equals anyway. It's downright amazing what they've done for the millions of refugees, and they're still doing it like it's Day 1. Ukrainian men of fighting age have been forbidden to leave for awhile, and when you're fighting a criminal like Putin who will go after your family if he can't kill you, having a safe haven where your wife and kids can stay out of harms way is arguably more valuable than any missile or drone.

Za wolność Waszą i naszą!

 

[KMFJD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567883017015726082

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567902997061206026

An attack somewhere

 

[Leeea]

The Poles are buying enough arms to show themselves to Moscow if Putin decides to attack. The below is in addition to their rather large domestic weapons procurements.

Lately they have ordered (at least):

500 M142 HIMARS trucks (and related munitions including ATACMS)
1000 K2 tanks
700 K9 155mm SPHs
32 F-35s
50 FA-50s
250 M1A2 Abrams SEPv3 tanks
6 Patriot batteries
An undisclosed quantity of Javelins.

and now:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567883386974310400

I worry Poland is over purchasing.

They need to deal with a refugee crisis, economy was not that great pre-war, and they are NATO members.

None of that will matter if Russia kicks it off with them, but short of that I would argue they need to think about social issues and spending.

 

[KMFJD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567913472431620097

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567883386974310400

Igor Girkin's whining that it's over and that Russia just hasn't realized it yet

 

[K1052]

I worry Poland is over purchasing.

They need to deal with a refugee crisis, economy was not that great pre-war, and they are NATO members.

None of that will matter if Russia kicks it off with them, but short of that I would argue they need to think about social issues and spending.

Their orders are in tranches so they might not execute for the full quantity contracted. Though given their location, history, the massive war right next door, and watching western Europe be relatively stingy with the armaments it is understandable they want to be loaded for bear if Putin tries something.

 

[K1052]

Is he...referring to Belgorod?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567916735054991360

 

[KMFJD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567864598757269504

too good to be true?

 

[Racan]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567913472431620097

That 30mm autocannon sounds nasty

 

[K1052]

There appeared to be fires near Saki, unclear what from.

In other news there is a reported Ukrainian breakthrough in Kherson

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567934924749144065

 

[hal2kilo]

That 30mm autocannon sounds nasty

When I was younger, I always wanted something like that mounted under the hood of my car to remove left lane cruisers. Now, everyone drives like shit in all lanes, so it just doesn't matter.

 

[JTsyo]

Next US aid package

View attachment 67301



Artillery fired anti-tank mines is a new one I think.

Ukrainians appear to be cranking though the AGM-88s which would explain the wide operation of many Ukrainian drones above the Russians in Kherson.

Few years back I had seen concepts for Wide Area Mine (WAM). It had a canister that would be shot a few feet into the air and then forms an EFP towards the target. This allowed the density of the field to be much lighter since they could reach further and they were smart and integrated with each other. The mines would talk to each other and figure which one had the best shot so they all didn't go after the same target. Something like this but smaller.

 

[kage69]

So like the anti armor version of those new Spider mines, pretty cool. Looks like the SFW from the CBU-97, just in a form for infantry to use.

I like it, but the performance to price ratio might be too far in one direction for widespread adoption. Also, as we saw from the Spiders that were sent to Afghanistan for downrange trials, locals will just walk off with them. Harder to find something buried, and if you do, you tend to leave it alone. Oooo, that thing has an antenna and battery packs - looks expensive. Off to Pakistan with you. *yoink*

It's a great concept. Big ol fat grid of those things working cooperatively making sure no one leaves alive, or gives you complete safety if disarmed. My kinda show. It's not supposed to be a fair fight, just a quick one. Just needs to get cheaper. "Economies of scale" kicking in and some refinement though, I can see it all going mainstream.

Edit: was it the Hornet mine you had seen I wonder? It's been out for awhile, and is called a WAM I believe. Supposedly we gave a bunch to Ukraine.

 

[kage69]

That 30mm autocannon sounds nasty

Ukrainian vehicle but Russian gun, what you see and hear is 30x165mm. The NATO / STANAG equivalent is a little spicier, 30x173mm. That's what the A-10 uses. A guy named Bob Stewart made an experimental rifle chambered in it.

 

[hal2kilo]

Ukrainian vehicle but Russian gun, what you see and hear is 30x165mm. The NATO / STANAG equivalent is a little spicier, 30x173mm. That's what the A-10 uses. A guy named Bob Stewart made an experimental rifle chambered in it.

Over the shoulder, good call

Something like the "handheld" gatling guns from Predator?

 

[KMFJD]

seems to be overly optimistic , but i like maps

 

[K1052]

Most of what I've seen indicates a main thrust at Kupiansk, which is reportedly under AFU artillery fire already. If Ukraine can cut the rail and road connections south the Russians down in the Izyum area are real screwed.

 

[RnR_au]

Found some interesting discussions about Kupiansk. Also with nice maps. I like maps too

The issue is that the izium salient that has been trying to put UA's forces in a pocket will be without support. Kupyansk is the railway (in black) hub of the region and either they defend it or the izium front will have to fall back at least to the eastern branch of the railway

On troops retreating from Izium;

The railway follows a large lake and the only way out seems to be the railway to Lyschansk that, however, is not in full control. The evacuation route would follow dangerously the frontline.

Both quotes and images from this thread.

To give an idea on the logistics network that Russia is so dependent on;

From this tweet.

You can clearly see how important Kupiansk is for control over the western rail network.

Russia is in a very very hard place now.

 

[kage69]

Something like the "handheld" gatling guns from Predator?

Sorry I thought that link worked. Nah that's all Hollywood and will stay all Hollywood. Can you imagine schlepping around that much steel, that eats that much brass, and needs a car battery connected to do it? That high a rate of fire is a liability if you're not in a vehicle with deep mags. You'd need 5 or 6 Jesse Venturas just to carry the ammo, and it would provide roughly 1-2 min of shooting time.

Closest you can get to that would probably be an Ironman like backpack system but a gun with a much lower rate of fire, something air cooled and recoil operated. Like this 1919 maybe.

That 30mm is just a single shot rifle. Probably like other huge novelty cannons where you have to attach the base of the cartridge to the face of the bolt, then insert both slowly into the chamber. Rrrrrrrreally try not to disturb that firing pin until the bolt arm is locked. Heh. There is a need for anti material rifles I suppose, but 30mm seems excessive. I think General Dynamics made a 20 or 25mm one awhile back, 4 round magazine I want to say. More of a proof of concept, I don't think they were ever adopted by any group. Now you can just send a drone and stay far enough away to not die.

 

[zinfamous]

I worry Poland is over purchasing.

They need to deal with a refugee crisis, economy was not that great pre-war, and they are NATO members.

None of that will matter if Russia kicks it off with them, but short of that I would argue they need to think about social issues and spending.

I'm looking at the Polish thing a bit differently....I don't think they are working up a defensive wall.

I think they see blood, lol. ....I mean. I guess NATO keeps them from being stupid? but...a strong part of me thinks that they are just going full USA on this shit and decide that St Pete's is a threat because of purple beet cabbage and how offensive it is to them, and just invade.

It looks to me like they want to pre-Putin what everyone knows (the next) Putin will eventually try, anyway.


.....granted, isn't this basically re-stocking over some time period, because a lot of their stock has already gone to UKA with promised resupply on the way? So yeah, maybe they are a bit thin for the offensive right now, but I wouldn't put it past them.

 

[zinfamous]

Found some interesting discussions about Kupiansk. Also with nice maps. I like maps too



View attachment 67336

On troops retreating from Izium;

View attachment 67337
Both quotes and images from this thread.

To give an idea on the logistics network that Russia is so dependent on;
View attachment 67338
From this tweet.

You can clearly see how important Kupiansk is for control over the western rail network.

Russia is in a very very hard place now.

This is a good breakdown. Thanks for posting.