Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,102
136
A wounded animal is the most dangerous and seems like a rout is coming up, could even be less than a few weeks or days with the way things are going.

In my opinion this may be the most dangerous time period in all of the war.

Yup, I wonder about that too. This entire invasion was about Putin wanting to be the glorious conquerer who restores Russian empire. Except they are getting the shit kicked out of them. Which is humiliating. I wonder about Putin deciding to use a tactical nuke.
 

RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
1,822
4,454
106
I wonder about Putin deciding to use a tactical nuke.
Where?

Kyiv? Ukraine still won't surrender and now NATO is involved.

On the front line? Which battle group? It still won't change the calculus of the Russian army which has very little good gear left, and very few good infantry left. Ukraine still have HIMARS, HARMs, PzH 2000, M777's, etc and now also NATO entering the battle sphere.

Russia's nuclear weapons are useless in this scenario. Russia's generals would know this. They would tell Putin to gtfo.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,551
13,116
136
This hole ordeal is some idea of balance Russia vs west, east vs NATO. That idea is getting fucked royally right now, I cant help but think that there is bigger factors involved, Putin cant afford to back this down. Mobilization and or worse (nerve agent, tactical) is coming OR they finally topple Putin… OR I am reading this whole The Vlad character wrong… Why should there be a world if there is no Russia in it? - Those words…

Alternative, Russia backs out of Ukraine and Putin manages to keep everything together.
Okay? Really?
 

rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
4,389
3,120
146
Where?

Kyiv? Ukraine still won't surrender and now NATO is involved.

On the front line? Which battle group? It still won't change the calculus of the Russian army which has very little good gear left, and very few good infantry left. Ukraine still have HIMARS, HARMs, PzH 2000, M777's, etc and now also NATO entering the battle sphere.

Russia's nuclear weapons are useless in this scenario. Russia's generals would know this. They would tell Putin to gtfo.

Not useless if they use a lot. Ignoring the political calculations they could gut Ukraine's army and major cities. I think this is politically non-viable and also an order unlikely to be followed although.
 

RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
1,822
4,454
106
Alternative, Russia backs out of Ukraine and Putin manages to keep everything together.
Okay? Really?
Putin is a tough nut. The oligarchs are aligned with him. They may not like him, but they fear him. FSB and the other alphabet organisations inside Russia are more problematic. They are mostly smart folk and they won't like being made scape goats. If they align with the Generals...

It could all have been so different...
 

Atari2600

Golden Member
Nov 22, 2016
1,409
1,655
136
most people dont realize how short range the mig29, su25, su27/30/33/35 are. the long range loiter air superiority of the USAF has never been on the table. they are good at intercepting a looming nato 'invasion' of russia but dont do well outside of that homefield advantage.

I didn't watch any of the videos, as based on your summary, they must be full of rubbish.

The Flanker series is *by far* the longest ranged air superiority fighter in the word. It doesn't have an equal in that regard (excepting maybe an F-15E with CFTs - and its not really meant to be an air-superiority fighter, its just based on f*king brilliant one F-15C).

Furthermore, in the early-mid 1980s, with the Fulcrum, AA-11 Archer and the HMS, the MiG-29 would probably have been the dominant factor in any air war between 4th generation jetfighters.... and that's not just my opinion, that's the opinion of most of the NATO (including US) aircrew that flew DACT against the old East German Fulcrums after "the wall" came down.


After that, as you said, funding gaps and an emphasis on kinematic warfare over electronic warfare has left them 30 years out of date from the point everyone else migrated from 4th generation (F-14, F-15, F-16, F/A-18 A-D) to 4.5th generation (F/A-18 E/F, EuroFighter, Rafale, Gripen) never mind 5th gen (F-22, F-35).
 
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Reactions: Leeea

Atari2600

Golden Member
Nov 22, 2016
1,409
1,655
136
Looking back to the time when Ukraine stopped Putin from taking Kyiv and started to take some serious blows in the east, it seems Ukraine was playing Rope-a-Dope at that time, having Putin's troops exhaust themselves physically and materially, while keeping its strength in reserve and building up energy for delivering a whole lot of pain after the Russians have seemingly played themselves out(?).

Lets not re-write history. There is already enough of that with Republicans.

The Ukrainians were doing whatever they could to hang on. At that point, there definitely was no glorious master plan of retaking their land 6 months later in an epic counter attacking.
 

amenx

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 2004
4,011
2,279
136
Putin lost control of the narrative and its all coming to bite him in the ass.

More and more Russian officials are urging Vladimir Putin to get the hell out of the Kremlin as Moscow suffered another series of humiliating defeats in Ukraine this weekend.

Just one day after several municipal deputies in Putin’s hometown of St. Petersburg called on the State Duma to try the Russian leader for treason, their colleagues in Moscow joined in and demanded he step down because his views are “hopelessly outdated.”

 
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trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,682
7,181
136
Lets not re-write history. There is already enough of that with Republicans.

The Ukrainians were doing whatever they could to hang on. At that point, there definitely was no glorious master plan of retaking their land 6 months later in an epic counter attacking.


My view of the turn of events in Ukraine is based on how the Ukrainians progressively and effectively turned the tide of battle into their favor by skillfully employing/deploying whatever assets they could prepare in advance of the expected invasion and ultimately how they took advantage of the growing list of advanced weaponry their western allies provided for their use.

I'm not seeing how my view of those events is somehow rewriting history. Could you explain a bit further for clarification? I always see comments on my opinions as a learning experience and your reply intrigued me enough to ask for more input.

Not a problem for me if you don't feel like pursuing this any further.
 
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amenx

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 2004
4,011
2,279
136
Yup, I wonder about that too. This entire invasion was about Putin wanting to be the glorious conquerer who restores Russian empire. Except they are getting the shit kicked out of them. Which is humiliating. I wonder about Putin deciding to use a tactical nuke.
The possibility of him getting Mussolini'd should weight heavy on his mind if he tries it.
 

Atari2600

Golden Member
Nov 22, 2016
1,409
1,655
136
My view of the turn of events in Ukraine is based on how the Ukrainians progressively and effectively turned the tide of battle into their favor by skillfully employing/deploying whatever assets they could prepare in advance of the expected invasion and ultimately how they took advantage of the growing list of advanced weaponry their western allies provided for their use.

I'm not seeing how my view of those events is somehow rewriting history. Could you explain a bit further for clarification? I always see comments on my opinions as a learning experience and your reply intrigued me enough to ask for more input.

Not a problem for me if you don't feel like pursuing this any further.

You used the term "playing rope-a-dope" - that is implying Ukraine had control over events and they were playing out as they had planned.

Clearly, that is not the case as at several points during this war, it was overwhelmingly luck and Russian incompetence that saved Ukraine, not intervention from their armed forces.


Furthermore, there hasn't been an instance like the Kursk salient of the 2nd world war, where the Ukrainians tried to overextend the Russians, then cut off the base.

The first section in the post quoted is absolutely correct. But that doesn't reconcile with a strategic "rope-a-dope".
 
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