Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
1,822
4,454
106
Mick Ryan has an interesting tidbit in his latest thread on the current Kharkiv assault;

12/ In China, this is a huge embarrassment for Xi in the lead up to the 16 October Party Congress. Not only has he shackled himself to a loser (Putin), but his ‘decline of the west’ narrative is again challenged. And support for defending #Taiwan is probably growing.

Edit: should be an interesting meeting;
VLADIVOSTOK, September 7. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin has confirmed that he plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Samarkand on September 15-16.
Source
 
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trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,682
7,181
136
Wait 'til Putin finds himself having the need to conscript the college bound middle/upper class youth of the nation of whom know exactly what they are getting themselves into and why they shouldn't fight his war for him and then hand them "top quality" NOS weapons made 30 years ago by patriotic North Koreans of whom were conscripts themselves. That would be an interesting sight to see.
 

trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,682
7,181
136
You used the term "playing rope-a-dope" - that is implying Ukraine had control over events and they were playing out as they had planned.

Clearly, that is not the case as at several points during this war, it was overwhelmingly luck and Russian incompetence that saved Ukraine, not intervention from their armed forces.


Furthermore, there hasn't been an instance like the Kursk salient of the 2nd world war, where the Ukrainians tried to overextend the Russians, then cut off the base.

The first section in the post quoted is absolutely correct. But that doesn't reconcile with a strategic "rope-a-dope".


Thanks for the reply, it's much appreciated.
 

Number1

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2006
7,881
549
126
That's enough machinery to have one dedicated chassis to each implement on the farm.

Ploughing, drilling, fertilising, spraying, harvesting, transporting....

Now... how easy is it to get a PTO into the T-72 engine...

I can fit a PTO fairly easily on my lawn tractor (S120 John Deer). Looks fairly straiforward. The t72 engine might be overkill so youl need a power reducing gear.
 
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gorobei

Diamond Member
Jan 7, 2007
3,713
1,067
136
I didn't watch any of the videos, as based on your summary, they must be full of rubbish.

The Flanker series is *by far* the longest ranged air superiority fighter in the word. It doesn't have an equal in that regard (excepting maybe an F-15E with CFTs - and its not really meant to be an air-superiority fighter, its just based on f*king brilliant one F-15C).

Furthermore, in the early-mid 1980s, with the Fulcrum, AA-11 Archer and the HMS, the MiG-29 would probably have been the dominant factor in any air war between 4th generation jetfighters.... and that's not just my opinion, that's the opinion of most of the NATO (including US) aircrew that flew DACT against the old East German Fulcrums after "the wall" came down.


After that, as you said, funding gaps and an emphasis on kinematic warfare over electronic warfare has left them 30 years out of date from the point everyone else migrated from 4th generation (F-14, F-15, F-16, F/A-18 A-D) to 4.5th generation (F/A-18 E/F, EuroFighter, Rafale, Gripen) never mind 5th gen (F-22, F-35).
the part you quoted isnt from the video, just my general takeaway after the decades of soviet pr debunking after the west got data on actual usage. so dont blame the videos.

the 3rd gen and early 4th gen from both sides were all shorter combat range than most people think(without ext tanks). it wasnt until the usaf went huge (overall size) with the f-15 from the threat of the mig-25 propaganda that we saw the sort of air superiority range race and supercruise outcomes.
most fighter mission hours are in the 1 to 2 hr range at non military power, and obviously much shorter when dumping fuel into the afterburner because pulling "cobras" bled all their airspeed.

the ru airforce doctrine has always been centered on throwing quantity at the threat as fast as possible. that goes back to ww2 with the flying coffin lagg-3s and yaks with disposable 20mm cannons. post guns-only dogfighting, they have always focused their designs on getting something up to altitude asap to launch a missile at the theoretical strategic bomber coming at ussr/russia.

the mig-29 followed the mig-21 as part of the hi-lo workhorse, and yes better ir missiles with helmet mount targeting makes it a threat that has to be addressed but the whole point of sparrows, skyflash, amraam and meteor was to never get that close. and while the mig-21 bison ended up as a dogfighter, the original version started as a short range interceptor.

the main point is that the ussr/ru air forces have never tried to match nato air forces when in the theoretical attack (sead/dead) role. their solution was to have a fast missile truck under cover of ecm/jamming/chaff dump longer range missiles at ground targets. certainly not trying to maintain air superiority control in hostile territory while the su-25 ground pounded. the problem being that those missiles were never proven against western systems in actual combat conditions.

the discussion i was replying to was questioning the actual capability of the ru af.
the ru fighters are a threat. they went all-in on IRST with the fulcrum and flanker which gave them a first shot advantage, and in a intercept situation with a full integrated radar network backing them that is fine. but flying an attack role against stealth and data link in hostile territory they needed way better radars in order to not get popped by an amraam from someone they never saw coming.

ru aerospace has presented itself as at parity feature-wise with the west if maybe 2 to 4 years late to the party. those claims have never been proven in actual combat vs a nato peer. while the mig and sukhoi bureaus have done amazing work in pushing performance, the rest of the systems have been a 'trust me bro' situation. look at the moskva air defense during its sinking.

this gets even more daunting as the f-35 crews are starting to play around with tactics. supposedly they are practicing turning off radars and using only the IRST and AR cams to fight/fly vision only. so no warning that something is in the area, no long range aew radar, no doppler just optical. the enemy gets no hint until the rear ir-receiver picks up the sidewinder motor heat.

the west/nato has always been shadowboxing when it comes to estimating peer/near peer threats. so far russia has yet to come close the promise of their pr. [and no i dont buy into absolute us air superiority, we've seen enough operational ready delays and day 1 defective systems not being discovered until years later. but at least we fire these weapons seriously every so often]
 
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Michael

Elite member
Nov 19, 1999
5,435
234
106
Putin may have a very hard time leaving the Kremlin to go attend any meeting outside the country with the front in that bad shape.

Ukraine moved from holding on with their finger nails and blood of their troops to a massive haymaker landing.

A staggered opponent is not a beaten one, though. Especially if the Russian border is a barrier that cannot be crossed. Grant mauled Lee but Sherman’s March was needed as well.

I do not see much risk of a tactical nuke in Ukraine. Inside Russia itself? Maybe.
 
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RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
1,822
4,454
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A couple of interesting bits and pieces;

From August;
20/ The possibility of images of large numbers of retreating and captured Russian troops will be a strategic calamity for President Putin. His narratives about the greatness of Russia, and the effectiveness of its wonder weapons, will lay in ruins.
Source

From today;
But this illustrates some wider issues. 1) The Kremlin seems stunned, and has not yet come up with a plan as to how to try and spin this, so to a large extent the media are ignoring the bad news until they get a directive. No one wants to show initiative lest they get it wrong 6/

2) The Kremlin is happy to lie, but can't just ignore realities, and so is really struggling to create any positive narratives on issues where some basic fact-checking is possible. This is the kind of dilemma we saw in Chechnya (x2) and the Sov war in Afghanistan, and... 8/

...Tends to be a sign that the state's control over the narrative is cracking. It is not so much IMO that Russians up to now have necessarily *believed* the official line so much as that they have had no reason to both *disbelieving* it as that is dangerous... /9

...both politically and also morally.
Source

Everyone is waiting to see how Putin will spin this.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,880
34,834
136
Seems to be a lot of concern among Russian bloggers that Ukraine will strike south soon. With their large force pinned in Kherson and the Kharkiv forces now in absolute shambles they feel they are weak there.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,058
38,568
136
I hope the people of Russia and China are paying attention to how full of shit their dictators are.

Sorry Beijing, the West ain't crumbling, it's actually putting your sidekick into a wheelchair. Have fun wheeling Putin around, and if you try to invade Taiwan there's a wheelchair in it for you too!
 
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NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,269
5,134
136
I hope the people of Russia and China are paying attention to how full of shit their dictators are.

Sorry Beijing, the West ain't crumbling, it's actually putting your sidekick into a wheelchair. Have fun wheeling that gimp around, and if you try to take Taiwan there's a wheelchair in it for you too!

Can we keep the ableist language out of this?
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,844
8,309
136
Not useless if they use a lot. Ignoring the political calculations they could gut Ukraine's army and major cities. I think this is politically non-viable and also an order unlikely to be followed although.
Sanctions are a relative thing. If Russia uses nukes of any kind, chemical agents, the international reaction will be nasty. Russia's in a tough spot, whatever its elites or citizenry thinks. The simplest solution is Putin losing power, which can happen in various ways. It's the easiest way for the situation to deescalate.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,058
38,568
136
Apparently Russians are using their helicopters to look for deserters rather than for combat operations. Haha


Best comment - "Plot twist: the helicopters are following them to figure out where it is safe to land"



This invasion is over. If only Putin would accept it. Russian lives mean nothing to him, same as Ukrainians. Maybe this ongoing triathlon East will motivate some people in his orbit to finally do something. The sooner they get rid of Putin the sooner their country can start to heal.

Just want to say, I know I talk a lot of shit about Yuri, but my distaste for the Zealots in no way applies to the normal, rational people of Russia. The realists, the ones not fapping away to Peter the Great fantasies. Truth be told, I'm pretty worried for those people now. Putin will be more unpredictable and even more dangerous when his back is to the wall and he just keeps losing. We already know he's fond of false flags ops. I feel like we're about to see more Kremlin Theater to justify something horrible. Innocents will probably die in the process. Hope Putin succumbs to lead poisoning first. It would be wonderfully ironic if he were to be so depressed with the current state of affairs that he leapt from a hospital window during one of his checkups. Tends to happen in Russia, those Muscovite doctors really need to improve their bedside manners.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,551
13,116
136
Who is the worlds richest person... if its not Elon?
You can do a lot of damage, one person, with 250b in pocket change. I dont see Putin folding. Or being forced to fold.
 
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