Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[Dave_5k]

Standing question due to fog of war.....

How much of Luhansk Oblast is Ukraine able to claim before the Russian army can fortify and hold a defensive line?

Potential answers being.... Highway 66, the Donets River, Highway 21, .... the Russian Border?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569096659778375683

The Russians may very well be forced into falling back to pre-invasion fortified line in Luhansk over the next week (which is a very heavily fortified bunker/trench line) ~ basically the Donets River to the South, and the Russian border to the east... I don't think there is much in the way of any other fortified positions in the way, just the natural barrier of the Oskil river to cross which Ukraine already pretty much controls I believe.

Main risk of that advance is if Russia is able to organize their forces at Belgorod into a new re-invasion force, the north-east borders appear pretty porous. Plus that is a lot of area to try to cover from air strikes. Ukraine really should be hammering the mass-murder MLRS sites NE of Kharkiv in Russia, any Belgorod troop formations where Russia is trying to regroup for effectively a re-invasion, plus nearby Tomarovka military airbase ~ all which are certainly in HIMARS range ~ if the US isn't tying Ukraine's hands behind their back in fighting the war.

 

[Dave_5k]

Hmm, apparently explosions happening at military airbase inside Russia southeast of Donetsk - this might just barely be within ER-GMLRS HIMARS range, or possibly drone/special forces (or more careless chain-smoking Igors!)
Edit: deleted video ~ apparently this video may be recycled from earlier August Crimea airbase strike

But there are multiple reports of explosions near Taganrog airbase including from Russian sources. Apparently the official Russian explanation right now is that a Tochka-U was shot down by S-300, "without casualties"

 

[K1052]

Taganrog is possibly at the edge of Tochka-U range. Or whatever visited Saki has made a fresh calling.

 

[K1052]

Hmm, apparently explosions happening at military airbase inside Russia southeast of Donetsk - this might just barely be within ER-GMLRS HIMARS range, or possibly drone/special forces (or more careless chain-smoking Igors!)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569327597170868224

Stated range of ER-GMLRS is 150km (so more like 175km in reality). Ukrainians can probably close to about 120km but that would mean scooting right up near the contact line.

 

[K1052]

Main risk of that advance is if Russia is able to organize their forces at Belgorod into a new re-invasion force, the north-east borders appear pretty porous. Plus that is a lot of area to try to cover from air strikes. Ukraine really should be hammering the mass-murder MLRS sites NE of Kharkiv in Russia, any Belgorod troop formations where Russia is trying to regroup for effectively a re-invasion, plus nearby Tomarovka military airbase ~ all which are certainly in HIMARS range ~ if the US isn't tying Ukraine's hands behind their back in fighting the war.

The porosity of the border also benefits the Ukrainians who could insert sabotage and SOF teams at will. Before the Russians attacked they could not do this to disrupt the buildup. No such restrictions now.

 

[dainthomas]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1568608347015811073

someone should put video behind that MoD guy of the RU tank giving birth to soldiers and crashing into the tree.

Baghdad Bob for the special military operation.

Belgorod Bob?

 

[K1052]

Ukrainians are flanking Lyman.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569350893958471681

 

[J30_Uwe]

Borscht Bob.

Speaking of borscht, is Russian Special Forces Commander, Pavel the Hut, still alive?

 

[Dave_5k]

Meanwhile, an alternate Russian reality - with propaganda crafted by Tucker/Fox:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569321565531115523

Going to have to rename Tucker as Baghdad Bob's replacement... Fox is actually more pro-Russia than even Russian state-controlled media was carrying this weekend (they're still struggling to find a positive message out of this rout)

 

[KMFJD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569266417085579265

nsfl

Another pilot and plane Russia can't afford to lose

 

[NTMBK]

Borscht Bob.

Speaking of borscht, is Russian Special Forces Commander, Pavel the Hut, still alive?

That "General Pavel" stuff was all nonsense. He's not called Pavel and he's not a general.

 

[JTsyo]

Up to now there has been very little analysis of a realistic endgame. Stopping at the border and waiting for sanctions to work is a loosing strategy. Stalin , sorry, Pukin is not coming out with his hands up any time soon, or never. Baring a coup, and that's very unlikely at this point, present thinking has offered up no approach to forcing Russia to do anything once the border is covered. As you say Its obvious that UKR must "launch another push "and take the fight to Moscow.
Lets not be nervous about nukes. NATO has enough to erase Russia and Pukin is not suicidal. Once Moscow is under siege , then the military will intervene. Fear of this bully's nuclear threat , which he has made numerous times just in this war without acting on, is never gonna repatriate POWs and kidnapped civilians, force demilitarization or enforce reparations payments or take Pukin and his Generals to the ICC or a firing squad, either is fine by me. Other than threatening Moscow directly with conventional defeat there is no other practical suggestion to forcing a settlement on obvious UKR terms.

That's not what I meant at all. Ukraine doesn't have the man power to invade Russia. By another push, I meant pushing south-east along the Russian border. The way I see it ending in favor of Ukraine is Ukraine taking all their land back and Russia realizing a frozen war isn't worth the sanctions.

 

[K1052]

Europe may be warming to providing Ukraine more heavy weapons since they can show some offensive success. France has already provided a quarter of their CEASAR inventory so they might be reluctant to part with more of it. Sort of doubt they send Leclercs. The AMX 10 RC is however being replaced like the VABs they sent Ukraine and would lend considerable assault firepower. The ammunition is not NATO standard and there is likely no export market for them.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569333337898074113

 

[woolfe9998]

Meanwhile, an alternate Russian reality - with propaganda crafted by Tucker/Fox:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569321565531115523

Going to have to rename Tucker as Baghdad Bob's replacement... Fox is actually more pro-Russia than even Russian state-controlled media was carrying this weekend (they're still struggling to find a positive message out of this rout)

That same idiot he had on his show was saying back in March that the war was almost over, that Ukraine was to lose within weeks.

 

[Atari2600]

Hmm, wondering what could they realistically threaten Russia with to push them to a negotiating table.

Taking over Crimea is obvious. They'll want to do that anyway and won't surrender it in negotiations.

But then... threaten to extend a corridor down to Georgia and stop Russian shipping in the Black sea? Would the loss of a warm sea port be enough to force Russia?


Might be worth noting a straight line from Dibrova to Kazahkstan is probably around the same distance as the current eastern border with Russia - so the actual border length wouldn't increase if they went due east from there. Wonder how tied to Moscow the locals in Volgograd are.

 

[J30_Uwe]

That "General Pavel" stuff was all nonsense. He's not called Pavel and he's not a general.

Thanks. After your reply I went looking and it seems like he is a simple guard far away from any sort of action. I couldn't imagine being in a hole if shelling started and seeing him come running towards that hole.

 

[K1052]

They seem to not know what to do at this point, I'd think because Putin hasn't decided. There are no real great options.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569384417142906880

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569266417085579265

nsfl

Another pilot and plane Russia can't afford to lose

Substandard maintenance is brilliant until it isn't.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

They seem to not know what to do at this point, I'd think because Putin hasn't decided. There are no real great options.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569384417142906880

There's also this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569334222242070536

 

[Jaskalas]

They seem to not know what to do at this point, I'd think because Putin hasn't decided. There are no real great options.

The "10,000" fresh men Russia sent in to protect Izyum got !@#$ing smashed on the road. I am sure most are alive, but they suffered such damage as to no longer be combat effective.

Russia halts sending in more units because Russia is incapable of generating effective units.
Plenty of Russian military remain in Ukraine, but they grow weaker and smaller day by day. No one is coming to save them.

Corruption destroyed Russia, and now we see the consequences with a megalomania leader flailing impotently and losing everything.

 

[trenchfoot]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569266417085579265

nsfl

Another pilot and plane Russia can't afford to lose

Ground crew probably didn't get their usual bribe of a case of vodka and pirozhki pupu platters to keep the jet airworthy.

edit - Looks like engine cut off just before crashing.

 

[Atari2600]

There's also this:

"Assassinate" himself and disappear off to Siberia?

 

[rommelrommel]

"Assassinate" himself and disappear off to Siberia?

The retirement plan for dictators isn't too good. I guess he could flee to N Korea or something. More likely he either keeps power or dies trying.

 

[K1052]

The "10,000" fresh men Russia sent in to protect Izyum got !@#$ing smashed on the road. I am sure most are alive, but they suffered such damage as to no longer be combat effective.

Russia halts sending in more units because Russia is incapable of generating effective units.
Plenty of Russian military remain in Ukraine, but they grow weaker and smaller day by day. No one is coming to save them.

Corruption destroyed Russia, and now we see the consequences with a megalomania leader flailing impotently and losing everything.

Hard choices have to be made but it isn't clear so far that Putin is actually making them. If twitter scuttlebutt is to be believed the 30 BTGs west of the river in Kherson are in increasingly dire shape and getting worse, seems like only a matter of (not much) time before that collapses on them.

Were I in his shoes I'd probably pull back to the Feb 23rd line in Luhansk since that's pretty fucked and try to get everything back from the wrong side of the Dnieper that I could and fortify the south. There is a desperate need for the Russian army to shrink it's frontline to something remotely manageable for the manpower they've got. But if Putin is obsessing over maps in his dacha...

 

[Leeea]

A pair of very intense videos from a few days ago. Ukrainian assault on Russian fortified position.

Not Safe for Work
Not Safe for Life
shows close quarters combat and death. Ukrainian and Russian losses.

Spoiler: hidden for a reason

the first video is an overhead view, note the drone is deceptive as to ground elevation:

It is easy to focus on the fate of the Ukrainian BMP squad, but the drone hides the elevation. Most likely survived.
The BMP was able to lay down a lot of fire, it likely KIAed the most number of Orcs.

The Ukrainian IFV pulls out right away after its squad deploys. It is the IFV squad that wins the engagement.
The BMP leaves when it does because it is likely time for an ammo refill and time to go pick up another squad.

The second video is from a Ukrainian soldiers helmet cam, from the IFV in the first video.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/xbnafn

Pretty brutal, the orcs likely were unable to think straight after the LAW rocket was fired into their position.

The whole time your staring at the drone view of the first video, these guys are winning the engagement.