Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
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Is that the case though? I just heard on the radio today, military analyst, that due to this being a "special operation" and official war has not been declared there is a reserve of 100's of thousands already trained he could begin pouring in. At the same time, mobilize to replenish as fertilizer stacks up.
So Russia reserves, they are not like reserves we have over here in NATO.

Russia considers anyone who has ever served as part of the reserve. There is no training for them, no two weeks a year*, no equipment for them to use, no existing command structure.


*There is one reserve unit in Russia that is the exception to the rule, that is used for certain ceremony duties. The rest are fantasy.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,551
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So Russia reserves, they are not like reserves we have over here in NATO.

Russia considers anyone who has ever served as part of the reserve. There is no training for them, no two weeks a year*, no equipment for them to use, no existing command structure.


*There is one reserve unit in Russia that is the exception to the rule, that is used for certain ceremony duties. The rest are fantasy.
Yea I am not so sure of that… as I’ve understood there is plenty of hardware left, what is not left is a surplus of hardware in the standing army… that has been scraped up. They have, had, a total of like 12.5k tanks, 1-2k now lost in Ukraine.
Or maybe its all smoke and mirrors.
 
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RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
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Yes that is what I was referring to.

If Putin green lit the grift and the war, what is his endgame?
I'm guessing here, but the grift is enabled by two things; the gas/oil flowing to Europe and Putin being in charge. Things were beginning to potentially threaten this cosy situation.

My guesses for the main factors for the war;
A simple quick war that would fix quite a number of problems.

All the other stuff about Nazi's, 'drug fueled Ukrainian administration', 'Ukrainians are not a people', 'Ukraine is Russia' are just paper thin propaganda to cover over the Realpolitik.
 

Dave_5k

Golden Member
May 23, 2017
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Listen to the Russians, they've been repeatedly saying their reason.
Ukraine does not exist. To Russia, all that land is theirs. Always has been. Until western "Nazis" took Ukraine from Russia in 2014.

This is the propaganda they've been sniffing since 2014, and now it has gone to their heads. Even Putin believes it.

This is existential for them, because until they reach Poland The Baltic Sea and the Oder river, the Russians really believe that THEIR land was stolen.
Fixed that.... Russian state propogandists, when the war was going better, openly proposed taking back the Baltics and Poland as well as next on the list to popular acclaim (these were state paid employees/politicians, on state television)
 

RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
1,822
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Interesting that you should ask, i just saw this

View attachment 67571
The source for this - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_businessmen_mystery_deaths

Fixed that.... Russian state propogandists, when the war was going better, openly proposed taking back the Baltics and Poland as well as next on the list to popular acclaim (these were state paid employees/politicians, on state television)
They were paid to change the Overton Window, so when Russia settled for only large parts of Ukraine in the peace negotiations, they would be seen as nice guys.
 
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rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
4,389
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Yea I am not so sure of that… as I’ve understood there is plenty of hardware left, what is not left is a surplus of hardware in the standing army… that has been scraped up. They have, had, a total of like 12.5k tanks, 1-2k now lost in Ukraine.
Or maybe its all smoke and mirrors.

Much of what is in inventory may be about as useful as reservists that haven't trained in a decade. Unmaintained equipment from the 60's and 70's will be beyond the trouble of getting operational in many cases.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,551
13,116
136
Interesting that you should ask, i just saw this

View attachment 67571
So when these happens, like the last one, fell off the boat, dead… what I ponder is, is it Putin that does the killing or is it someone else killing them cause they’re Putins pawns in the civ.
I feel like its probably Putin cleaning up ppl who have disappointed the king… but sometimes
 
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Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,707
5,435
136
Ehh.. perhaps you haven't listened to the Russians?
"The Ukrainian people do not exist".

This is simply an internal matter, Russia is securing Russia.
That is their propaganda.

That is all scripted. Not word for word, but the general outline. This is a standard Russian propaganda technique.

One guy says something contrary to the state message, something people might be thinking.

The others gang up on him and tell him how stupid he is. Then the one who said the contrary statement lets himself look stupid. It reaffirms the state line.


That show runs all the time, and it is always that format. It is getting more spicy now, but the tiger does not change its stripes.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
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Dave_5k

Golden Member
May 23, 2017
1,664
3,224
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China makes a move on Russia's sphere of influence...
Interesting scoop on Kazakhstan potentially leaving CSTO (not seen it formally yet however) ~ Russia (and the others in CSTO) just basically flat out refused to directly support Armenia in latest fighting, they are instead proposing to form a committee to "study" the issue... just like the last 2 times Armenia asked for help during conflicts with Azerbaijan.

On the other hand, Kazakhstan did get troops from CSTO to help violently suppress internal unrest / opposition demonstrations not that long ago - somewhat surprised after that support they'd turn to China instead (would China actually supply troops to Kazakhstan to prop up the current government in the case of unrest?)
 
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NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,269
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NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,269
5,134
136
Yea I am not so sure of that… as I’ve understood there is plenty of hardware left, what is not left is a surplus of hardware in the standing army… that has been scraped up. They have, had, a total of like 12.5k tanks, 1-2k now lost in Ukraine.
Or maybe its all smoke and mirrors.

They're pulling T-62s out of storage and sending them to the front line, and that tank is literally 60 years old. They are scraping the barrel.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,551
13,116
136
They're pulling T-62s out of storage and sending them to the front line, and that tank is literally 60 years old. They are scraping the barrel.
You're assuming they've sold out of the better stock before getting to the T-62's. You sure about that? Telling me that 12.5K -> 10.5K, that 10.5K is T-62's, worse, or rust?
 
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RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
1,822
4,454
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Apparently Kazakhstan denies it. No idea if this website is trustworthy though, struggling to find any reputable sources on the whole thing.

Seems the Chinese comments are right ie "going forward we will also resolutely support Kazakhstan in the defense of its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity", but the wrong inference was drawn from them.


During the pandemic, there were Chinese media that offered the idea that Kazakhstan is actually Chinese territory which caused a diplomatic incident. In this context, the words from Xi has a different meaning.
 
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