Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,880
34,834
136
Disappointing, this reluctance will only serve to lenghten the war and increase the number of Ukrainian casualties.


It is disappointing the US won't supply longer range munitions while the war is hot.

Ukraine should probably ask for US IFVs, mortar carriers, armed drones, etc that would make their attacks more effective/less costly.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,844
8,309
136
The pace of German supply is maddeningly slow. This instance that everything be washed through KMW or Rheinmetall is simply ridiculous. They're only halfway done sending the Gepards. Even if that's the case they should stop actively interfering with Ukraine trying to buy Marder IFVs or negotiating a tank deal. Apparently the US privately told the German government to stop blaming them for their decision not to make these contracts, essentially to grow some balls and take responsibility.
Germany's been in bed with the Russians for decades. The KGB had so many sleeper agents there before during and after the Berlin wall came down. Putin got his chops there in the KGB. I am not at all surprised that German help for Ukraine is sluggish and halting.

For a terrific primer on all this, Catherine Belton's "Putin's People: How the KGB Took Back Russia and Then Took on the West"
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,880
34,834
136
Germany's been in bed with the Russians for decades. The KGB had so many sleeper agents there before during and after the Berlin wall came down. Putin got his chops there in the KGB. I am not at all surprised that German help for Ukraine is sluggish and halting.

For a primer on all this, Catherine Belton's "Putin's Peoplel: How the KGB took back Russia and Then Took on the West"

I think some of it is unseemly German closeness with the Russians but some of it also is simple German intransigence.
 
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woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,102
136
Germany's been in bed with the Russians for decades. The KGB had so many sleeper agents there before during and after the Berlin wall came down. Putin got his chops there in the KGB. I am not at all surprised that German help for Ukraine is sluggish and halting.

For a terrific primer on all this, Catherine Belton's "Putin's People: How the KGB Took Back Russia and Then Took on the West"

I've got a feeling that German dependence on Russian NG is a wholly satisfactory explanation, and that Soviet spies in Russia 40 years ago is too remote to explain anything.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,102
136
You are so so naïve.

That is a non-answer, probably because you've got nothing beyond what you already said, which is practically nothing. It isn't readily apparent why I'm being naive to ascribe the obvious, current motive rather than a connection from decades ago. You're saying what, then, that because decades ago there were lots of Soviet spies in Germany that we should assume that the current German government is infiltrated with said spies to the point where they are really acting on behalf of Russia rather than themselves? That sounds a bit implausible to me, but I'm open minded if you have anything more specific to go on.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,551
13,116
136
That is a non-answer, probably because you've got nothing beyond what you already said, which is practically nothing. It isn't readily apparent why I'm being naive to ascribe the obvious, current motive rather than a connection from decades ago. You're saying what, then, that because decades ago there were lots of Soviet spies in Germany that we should assume that the current German government is infiltrated with said spies to the point where they are really acting on behalf of Russia rather than themselves? That sounds a bit implausible to me, but I'm open minded if you have anything more specific to go on.
Probably not Stasi related but what happened in the US 2016, didnt start with Manafort and Derapaska, it started with grooming of the Orange at least a decade before and some sources going even deeper forty years
Add to this that the US by no measure is Russias only target. The rudimentary idiocy of Helsinki right? And likewise situations where Trump put his allegiance on display for all to see… Yea those heads are popping up around Europe too. Trump(and half of gop) is not the only ones.
 

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,406
4,967
136
Probably not Stasi related but what happened in the US 2016, didnt start with Manafort and Derapaska, it started with grooming of the Orange at least a decade before and some sources going even deeper forty years
Add to this that the US by no measure is Russias only target. The rudimentary idiocy of Helsinki right? And likewise situations where Trump put his allegiance on display for all to see… Yea those heads are popping up around Europe too. Trump(and half of gop) is not the only ones.
I guess McCarthy is rotating in his grave...
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,551
13,116
136
Disappointing, this reluctance will only serve to lenghten the war and increase the number of Ukrainian casualties.


Maybe.
There more dimensions to this than just the two dimensional fronts on a map, I can easily imagine a gaming room coming to the conclusion that the current pressure is the most likely vector for an in-regime change over the next 10 weeks and a more heavy push on the front will actually diminish those odds. Its not about killing as many orcs on the front as it is about optimizing the odds, the circumstances, in and around the Kremlin.
Maybe not. Who tf knows. I say more hardware too... Putins stasi is working behind enemy lines, we never know when one of them will have a break through /eying Italy.
 
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GoPackGo

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 2003
6,434
491
126
Putin bet it all on black and it came up 00. Not only has most of Europe and the US have rallied to aid Ukraine. Their military capability has been exposed as terrible against Western military weaponry. He should stop writing checks his military can't cash.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,880
34,834
136
Putin bet it all on black and it came up 00. Not only has most of Europe and the US have rallied to aid Ukraine. Their military capability has been exposed as terrible against Western military weaponry. He should stop writing checks his military can't cash.

Not to mention his energy blackmail coming up empty.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,880
34,834
136
Lot of tough video coming out of Izium the last couple days. Looks worse/bigger than Bucha. One has to assume this is the case throughout occupied territory.

That the Ukrainians will only negotiate through the muzzles of howitzers is very understandable.
 

Dave_5k

Golden Member
May 23, 2017
1,664
3,224
136
Excellent, finally! Presume that's 2 full NASAM batteries (which totals 12 mobile launchers, each with 6 missiles), will definitely improve air defense & even cruise missile interception capabilities.

US has promised total of 8 NASAM batteries now - 6 more announced in a late August package. These first 2 were announced originally in July. I had missed these until I did a search just now:
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,880
34,834
136
Excellent, finally! Presume that's 2 full NASAM batteries (which totals 12 mobile launchers, each with 6 missiles), will definitely improve air defense & even cruise missile interception capabilities.

US has promised total of 8 NASAM batteries now - 6 more announced in a late August package. These first 2 were announced originally in July. I had missed these until I did a search just now:

Raytheon and Kongesberg have been doing some interesting testing recently with the system specifically geared at layered defense against cruise missiles…

https://www.raytheonmissilesanddefe...t-of-its-kind-air-base-air-defense-capability
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,844
8,309
136
That is a non-answer, probably because you've got nothing beyond what you already said, which is practically nothing. It isn't readily apparent why I'm being naive to ascribe the obvious, current motive rather than a connection from decades ago. You're saying what, then, that because decades ago there were lots of Soviet spies in Germany that we should assume that the current German government is infiltrated with said spies to the point where they are really acting on behalf of Russia rather than themselves? That sounds a bit implausible to me, but I'm open minded if you have anything more specific to go on.
OK, why was I so terse there? Fact is 10 minutes from then it was lights out, gotta go to sleep ASAP, I have an 8:10AM medical appointment across town to which I will bicycle. So, I just said you are entirely naïve and left it at that. Make sense?

You think the KGB (now morphed into the FSB) just faded away from Germany after the Berlin wall came down? I'll admit I am only about 25% into Catherine Belton's book but I bet a reading to the end will reveal that the FSB's tentacles are deep in Germany as well as other nations outside the confines of Russia's official borders. Belton's research is hell of impressive. Russia's style of economic and political infiltration is to penetrate, set up organizations that are a façade for their real purpose. They hide their kleptocracy monies, billions and billions in multifarious manners. You think they aren't doing this in Germany? You think it was 30 years ago, not today? Well, believe what you want, man. But what you believe and what it is are likely very much at odds.

I suggest you read Belton's book... here's a tidbit from article linked in Racan's post, which followed on the heels of yours, a quote from POLITICO's August 31, 2022 article:

BERLIN — Two senior officials at Germany's economy ministry are being investigated over allegations of spying for Russia, newspaper Die Zeit reported on Wednesday.

According to the article, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), Germany's domestic intelligence service, is looking into the case of two civil servants "who are involved with energy supply in key positions" and might be Kremlin moles.
 
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