Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,547
13,115
136
It's complicated. Many parts of the EU depend on Russia for natural gas

Germany like 30%+. Still, the alternative is worse... The gas isnt event flowing yet in nordstream-2 and its already asserting political influence. Fuck that shit. Though Germany has stated that if Russia invades Ukraine, NS-2 is off.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
Germany like 30%+. Still, the alternative is worse... The gas isnt event flowing yet in nordstream-2 and its already asserting political influence. Fuck that shit. Though Germany has stated that if Russia invades Ukraine, NS-2 is off.
Well, I'm shocked that Germany is willing to go through this! Their choice to rapidly decommission a bunch of nuclear plants really screwed their clean energy drive. I watch DW news sometimes - good coverage of European news (in English). Normally when discussing a topic with three experts, they include one with a dissenting viewpoint. In the latest 'debate' I saw on nuclear power, all three experts were opposed to nuclear power - lol! Also, pet peeve, everyone is still referring to old Gen3 PWR reactors - not the newer, safer Gen4s which produce smaller amounts of nuclear waste products with very short half lives (and they are cheaper!). BooHoo.
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,275
8,200
136
Something I am unclear on is whether Putin is genuinely a Russian nationalist, who is personally driven to recreate the extent of Russian territorial control of his youth, or if it's a purely cynical game to use Russian nationalism as a tool to further his real aims of simply securing his personal wealth and power. The CCP seems to use Chinese nationalism as a tool, and turn the temperature up and down depending on the domestic requirements of the moment. I don't know if Putin does the same, or if he's just a full-on Great Russian nationalist (as Yeltsin was, but Gorbachev probably wasn't).

I don't know how one solves the problems of nationalism. No political ideology seems to be able to deal with it very well.
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,275
8,200
136
It's complicated. Many parts of the EU depend on Russia for natural gas

On the one hand, the UK does not, but on the other hand, the price of gas here is already going through the roof (to the extent that people are having to choose between heating and eating) and a shortage of supply in the EU will cause the price to go up still further everywhere.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,547
13,115
136
On the one hand, the UK does not, but on the other hand, the price of gas here is already going through the roof (to the extent that people are having to choose between heating and eating) and a shortage of supply in the EU will cause the price to go up still further everywhere.
The UK is like 3% is it not?
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,275
8,200
136
The UK is like 3% is it not?
You mean % of gas from Russia? Doesn't really matter though, because it's all interchangeable, and if there's a shortage due to lack of Russian supply to the EU the price will go up for everyone. Prices here have literally doubled and are set to go up further in the Spring.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,547
13,115
136
Well, I'm shocked that Germany is willing to go through this! Their choice to rapidly decommission a bunch of nuclear plants really screwed their clean energy drive. I watch DW news sometimes - good coverage of European news (in English). Normally when discussing a topic with three experts, they include one with a dissenting viewpoint. In the latest 'debate' I saw on nuclear power, all three experts were opposed to nuclear power - lol! Also, pet peeve, everyone is still referring to old Gen3 PWR reactors - not the newer, safer Gen4s which produce smaller amounts of nuclear waste products with very short half lives (and they are cheaper!). BooHoo.
Its too late for nuclear now .. it takes at least a decade to get a new plant up and running right? By that time frame we're running on solar and wind.

Also makes you think a couple of thoughts about why Putin is doing this now. A shift to green means that Putins leverage is gone... I think 40%+ of Russias BNP is energy export right?

So this means that Putin is gonna lose a significant tool over the next 10 years. Maybe this is factoring in on the decision making to make war now.
 

feralkid

Lifer
Jan 28, 2002
16,577
4,659
136
Its too late for nuclear now .. it takes at least a decade to get a new plant up and running right? By that time frame we're running on solar and wind.

Also makes you think a couple of thoughts about why Putin is doing this now. A shift to green means that Putins leverage is gone... I think 40%+ of Russias BNP is energy export right?

So this means that Putin is gonna lose a significant tool over the next 10 years. Maybe this is factoring in on the decision making to make war now.


Putin's Russia has been described as "A Gas Station with an Army", so...yeah.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
Move 100k troops and a bunch of armor and artillery just for show? I certainly hope nothing happens but it currently doesn't seem that way.
Yep, for show. And he'll probably keep them there as a threat. The increase in gas prices due to "geopolitics" is more than worth it for Russia. Plus it makes Ukraine spend more resources on defense and hurts their economy, increasing chances of future social unrest for Putin to take advantage of.

Even Ukrainians are telling the collective West to calm down and stop being hysterical.
From President Volodymyr Zelenskyy down, the Ukrainian government has tried to urge calm, with senior officials making clear in recent days they don't see the risks now as any more heightened than over the last eight years of Russian-stoked conflict in eastern Ukraine.
 
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senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
That seems to have been a really bad decision...
Like as bad as everyone else US included that depends on China. We all need to break this chain.
Why is it a bad decision? Russia has gas but wants European stuff (luxury and consumer goods), Europe has stuff and wants Russian gas. Pretty symbiotic mutually dependent relationship. Sure, Europe can stop buying Russian gas, but then they'll have to buy more expensive gas elsewhere, their chemical industry will be decimated, Russians won't be buying Mercedes and Gucci. Russia can stop selling gas to Europe, but then it will have less money to buy European goods and a lower quality of life. This is why there are no major issues with Russian gas supplies to Europe. USSR was supplying gas to NATO enemies during height of Cold War.
 
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pcgeek11

Lifer
Jun 12, 2005
21,512
4,607
136
Why is it a bad decision? Russia has gas but wants European stuff (luxury and consumer goods), Europe has stuff and wants Russian gas. Pretty symbiotic mutually dependent relationship. Sure, Europe can stop buying Russian gas, but then they'll have to buy more expensive gas elsewhere, their chemical industry will be decimated, Russians won't be buying Mercedes and Gucci. Russia can stop selling gas to Europe, but then it will have less money to buy European goods and a lower quality of life. This is why there are no major issues with Russian gas supplies to Europe. USSR was supplying gas to NATO enemies during height of Cold War.


Mainly because Russia can do without luxury items. Europe cannot do without gas.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
Mainly because Russia can do without luxury items. Europe cannot do without gas.
They can import LNG from the US and gas from Azerbaijan/North Africa. It would be expensive and make some of their industries less competitive, especially chemical and fertilizer, but they could do it, like they did before pipelines were built from USSR to NATO countries in Europe. Just like a lot of Russian industries will be less competitive without European equipment, etc. It's a mutually beneficial relationship and it's dependable, that's why it survives geopolitics.
 
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pcgeek11

Lifer
Jun 12, 2005
21,512
4,607
136
They can import LNG from the US and gas from Azerbaijan/North Africa. It would be expensive and make some of their industries less competitive, especially chemical and fertilizer, but they could do it, like they did before pipelines were built from USSR to NATO countries in Europe. Just like a lot of Russian industries will be less competitive without European equipment, etc. It's a mutually beneficial relationship and it's dependable, that's why it survives geopolitics.


I would prefer to get my required products from an ally rather than an enemy. Maybe I'm the crazy one...

Hopefully we won't find out how well this agreement holds up after the bullets start flying.
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,275
8,200
136
That seems to have been a really bad decision...

Like as bad as everyone else US included that depends on China. We all need to break this chain.


Does seem like a long list of poor choices got us here.

Of course, we used to have a coal industry that provided most of our power needs, till Thatcher and the neo-liberals destroyed it, and triggered a shift to gas, because of their hatred of the miners and ideological faith in privatisation. The rush for gas was largely a result of the way the Tories privatised the energy sector. It also left us completely exposed to price shifts in the global market.

Though the situation is rendered more complicated still by the fact that doing that accidentally reduced our CO2 emissions. And of course a huge irony is that Thatcher kicked off much of the research into climate change because she saw concern about global warming as a possible weapon to use against the miners union.

Really, every aspect of neo-liberalism seems to have ended in failure. The power companies all going bust en masse is just the latest of the privatisations to reach the end of the road. Rail privatisation has been a failure, the privatisation of water supplies has just turned out to be a sort of protection racket, the privatisation of steel and car industries just led to those industries disappearing, yet still this weird faith-based belief that 'private is better than public' lives on.

Heck, ultimately it was neo-liberalism that gave the world Putin.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,865
34,813
136
They can import LNG from the US and gas from Azerbaijan/North Africa. It would be expensive and make some of their industries less competitive, especially chemical and fertilizer, but they could do it, like they did before pipelines were built from USSR to NATO countries in Europe. Just like a lot of Russian industries will be less competitive without European equipment, etc. It's a mutually beneficial relationship and it's dependable, that's why it survives geopolitics.

European LNG receiving terminals are already at about 3/4ths capacity as shipments have increased. Given current level of supply and what they've got in storage Europe won't freeze if Russia cuts off the gas but it won't be a fun experience. Continental storage could be filled during the warmer months from these supplies but it would be expensive and governments would likely have to subsidize. Putin can't cut off the gas for long without self destructing the Russian economy and the fear that Europe will accelerate its shift away from fossil fuels, the only products he can hold over them politically.
 

thilanliyan

Lifer
Jun 21, 2005
11,912
2,130
126
Though the situation is rendered more complicated still by the fact that doing that accidentally reduced our CO2 emissions. And of course a huge irony is that Thatcher kicked off much of the research into climate change because she saw concern about global warming as a possible weapon to use against the miners union.
The lady did some good then!

Really, every aspect of neo-liberalism seems to have ended in failure. The power companies all going bust en masse is just the latest of the privatisations to reach the end of the road. Rail privatisation has been a failure, the privatisation of water supplies has just turned out to be a sort of protection racket, the privatisation of steel and car industries just led to those industries disappearing, yet still this weird faith-based belief that 'private is better than public' lives on.

Heck, ultimately it was neo-liberalism that gave the world Putin.
Regulation bad!! Free market good!!

Of course, free market means that companies will move to wherever it is cheapest to operate and produce goods, or subcontract out to the lowest bidder. And then people wonder why those jobs disappear.

No doubt, gov't run industries can have extra bureaucracy and move slower so in some instances it is good to privatize, but for essential services of national importance like energy/water/military/etc, it's probably best to stay gov't run.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,812
49,498
136
The lady did some good then!


Regulation bad!! Free market good!!

Of course, free market means that companies will move to wherever it is cheapest to operate and produce goods, or subcontract out to the lowest bidder. And then people wonder why those jobs disappear.

No doubt, gov't run industries can have extra bureaucracy and move slower so in some instances it is good to privatize, but for essential services of national importance like energy/water/military/etc, it's probably best to stay gov't run.
Yes, I agree. I think the idea of a publicly run car company is crazy - the market there is competitive and robust. Private utilities are similarly insane to me though as the market there is by definition not competitive as nobody wants ten redundant sewer lines running to their house.
 

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
3,955
5,825
136
I wonder how many troops are sick, not to mention the civilian population. Russian/Chinese vaccines are dogshit, especially against Omicron. Russia is smashing new case records atm.
 
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