Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,880
34,834
136
Well so far from what I've seen the Iranian drones are more like an issue than a major problem. That is the working ones I mean of course.

One interesting anecdote I've read is that they are very noisy in flight giving substantial warning of their appearance and perhaps making them easier to shoot/EW down.
 
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Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,875
10,300
136
Much of the Russian Navy is in port, the navy wouldn't even be used for that duty aside from carrier strikes. Same for the surface Russian Navy at sea, they have no aviation so they just get picked apart. Getting their subs will take longer but they can't stay submerged forever.

The PLN is only dangerous near China, unlikely we're going to war with them soon too.

Does the US Air Force have the ability to seriously degrade Russian command, sure seems so. For a limited goal like recapture of Crimea I feel it's not even close to a hard task.

I do think that a wide coalition of countries would come together to punish Russia for an offensive nuclear strike. I think it would even get the PRC squarely on board.
I'm going to assume we have a pretty good idea of where all there subs are right now. From my understanding, we always did in the cold war.
 
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Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,705
5,435
136
. . .
The entire country will erupt and go batshit, people you find here might even end up protesting provided they aren't already dead.
. . .
I feel your entire post underestimates America.

The country would go batshit, for Russian blood. Sept 11th resulted in the US fighting over 20 years of war. Dec 7th resulted in the US ending facist regimes on the other side of the planet.


History shows that type of attack on a US target is unlikely to result in a positive outcome for the attacker.


The world is a small place now. If we ignore our neighbor being murdered, nobody will be left to care when we are murdered. If we ignore what is happening in Ukraine, it will happen elsewhere. Places we have defense treaties with. Better to fight the orcs now on our terms, then later on their terms.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,059
38,568
136
Well so far from what I've seen the Iranian drones are more like an issue than a major problem. That is the working ones I mean of course.

One interesting anecdote I've read is that they are very noisy in flight giving substantial warning of their appearance and perhaps making them easier to shoot/EW down.


I guess that makes sense. I heard the Ukrainians bagged a bunch with small arms fire, usually kinda tricky. Could be bs, but the impression I'm getting is Iranian drones are nowhere near as refined as their Western and Israeli counterparts, while also requiring far more techs to be present in order to operate and maintain. Even if their quality is lacking and their tactics suck, having them off the battlefield would be great for the Ukrainians and allies. Actually could happen if things in Iran keep heating up. Looks like the populace isn't scared anymore, which is usually a sign of big changes to come. Just imagine Iran returning to the West's lunch table and ditching Russia, for reasons completely unrelated to Ukraine, oh man would that really crack me up. India, China and then Iran, not having Putin's back for his Peter the Great adventure. I can see him now, beet red, "who the hell is Mahsa Amini?"
 
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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,844
8,309
136
I feel your entire post underestimates America.

The country would go batshit, for Russian blood. Sept 11th resulted in the US fighting over 20 years of war. Dec 7th resulted in the US ending facist regimes on the other side of the planet.


History shows that type of attack on a US target is unlikely to result in a positive outcome for the attacker.


The world is a small place now. If we ignore our neighbor being murdered, nobody will be left to care when we are murdered. If we ignore what is happening in Ukraine, it will happen elsewhere. Places we have defense treaties with. Better to fight the orcs now on our terms, then later on their terms.
How reasonable is it, is it possible to revoke Russia's seat on the UN Security Counsil?

A quick search on Google turns this up:

Can Russia be removed from UNSC?


Can Russia be removed from the UN Security Council? There is no mechanism to remove a permanent member of the Security Council written into the UN charter. The only way to remove Russia from the Security Council would be to remove it from the UN entirely. This is technically possible, but has never been done before. Apr 29, 2022

That is followed by this gotcha:

The General Assembly may expel a member from the United Nations. But a Security Council vote to expel a member of the United Nations is required before the General Assembly can vote on it. That preliminary council vote requires the unanimous consent of its permanent members. Apr 15, 2022

The UN is NOT intelligently constituted. Looks like we're back to sanctions and warfare.
 

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,705
5,435
136
How reasonable is it, is it possible to revoke Russia's seat on the UN Security Counsel?
Putin is using Russia as hammer to pound the anvil of Ukraine.

When his hammer shatters, Russia shatters. When Russia is no more the security council seat will be no more.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,844
8,309
136
Putin is using Russia as hammer to pound the anvil of Ukraine.

When his hammer shatters, Russia shatters. When Russia is no more the security council seat will be no more.
Well, I suppose Russia could be no more, don't know how that would transpire. I suppose if the Russian federation comes undone it could happen. Something like that seems to have happened when the USSR dissolved.
 

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,705
5,435
136
Well, I suppose Russia could be no more, don't know how that would transpire. I suppose if the Russian federation comes undone it could happen. Something like that seems to have happened when the USSR dissolved.
When the USSR dissolved people were more forgiving toward Russia. It was a bright future.

When Russia shatters it will be a vicious thing. None of the successor states will be considered heir to the seat.
 
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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,844
8,309
136
Putin is looking more and more like Hitler. This is the lead story ATM at the NYTimes:

WASHINGTON — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has thrust himself more directly into strategic planning for the war in Ukraine in recent weeks, American officials said, including rejecting requests from his commanders on the ground that they be allowed to retreat from the vital southern city of Kherson.

A withdrawal from Kherson would allow the Russian military to pull back across the Dnipro River in an orderly way, preserving its equipment and saving the lives of soldiers.

But such a retreat would be another humiliating public acknowledgment of Mr. Putin’s failure in the war, and would hand a second major victory to Ukraine in one month. Kherson was the first major city to fall to the Russians in the initial invasion, and remains the only regional capital under Moscow’s control. Retaking it would be a major accomplishment for President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine.

 

rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
4,389
3,120
146
How reasonable is it, is it possible to revoke Russia's seat on the UN Security Counsil?

A quick search on Google turns this up:

Can Russia be removed from UNSC?


Can Russia be removed from the UN Security Council? There is no mechanism to remove a permanent member of the Security Council written into the UN charter. The only way to remove Russia from the Security Council would be to remove it from the UN entirely. This is technically possible, but has never been done before. Apr 29, 2022

That is followed by this gotcha:

The General Assembly may expel a member from the United Nations. But a Security Council vote to expel a member of the United Nations is required before the General Assembly can vote on it. That preliminary council vote requires the unanimous consent of its permanent members. Apr 15, 2022

The UN is NOT intelligently constituted. Looks like we're back to sanctions and warfare.

The great thing about rules is that you can change em.
 
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amenx

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 2004
4,011
2,279
136
The General Assembly may expel a member from the United Nations. But a Security Council vote to expel a member of the United Nations is required before the General Assembly can vote on it. That preliminary council vote requires the unanimous consent of its permanent members. Apr 15, 2022

The UN is NOT intelligently constituted. Looks like we're back to sanctions and warfare.
Almost sounds comical if Russia, a permanent member can veto its own expulsion.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
146
They pound on your door bam bam bam bam bam like automatic gunfire, if you open the door, you're faced with an AK and told to vote to join Russia.

well at least this time the Soviets are going to the trouble of actually forcing common citizens to vote. Their usual strategy would be to invade, deport all the city councils, governors, whatever--usually to labor (really death) camps, replace them with Soviet shitbirds, then the Soviets agree "unanimously" to join the empire.

Even that shithole Gorbachev was using that historical curiosity to argue, until his death, that the Baltics belonged to the Soviets forever, because "history shows" that the annexation referendums were all unanimous. To this day as well, you will have conservative assholes in the US and gaslit Soviet wannabees like the various whysitso people pointing to what that one sentence states in their various history books and will be forever unmoved into coming to an understanding of the actual context of those events.

Soviets can only really exist because enough people are stupid enough to accept their lies. They are lazy, incurious cowards. I think this is one of the reasons US conservatives are so enamored with the Soviets and especially Putin: they just want to be told what to think so they don't have to bother, and if plenty undesirables get lost along the way, all the better.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
146
Almost sounds comical if Russia, a permanent member can veto its own expulsion.

I think this structure is necessary by design. Think about how arbitrary the UN would be if it were so easy to just expel and invite people without any restrictions, without consequence.

It is supposed to be messy, because diplomacy is messy and complicated. Participants are pretty much chained together or locked in a closet, if you prefer, in order to force diplomacy over war. That is the entire point.

Anyway, the structure is pretty much fine as it is, in the assumption that participants aren't chronic murderous assholes that just want to murder everyone else in the council. Well, there's that, I guess.
 

Lezunto

Golden Member
Oct 24, 2020
1,070
968
106
The world is a small place now. If we ignore our neighbor being murdered, nobody will be left to care when we are murdered. If we ignore what is happening in Ukraine, it will happen elsewhere. Places we have defense treaties with. Better to fight the orcs now on our terms, then later on their terms.

That is the same rationale used to justify the invasion of Iraq. "Let's fight them over there so we don't have to fight them over here." Did they ever find those mythical Weapons of Mass Destruction? Of course, not!

It was all a series of vicious lies.

That is the nonsense used to destroy a Middle East nation that Israel hated and feared. But get the U.S. and Britain to sacrifice their soldiers, airmen and wealth to do it.

What is happening in Ukraine, unfortunately, is what Europeans have done for centuries: Slaughter each other. They have never stopped. Whether it is the Balkans or Eastern Europe, they will not stop.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,880
34,834
136
Feels like the frequency of reported shoot downs of Russian aircraft have been going up. Given the lack of alternatives Putin might be making them take greater chances.
If they start to have steep aviation losses that's a fairly big deal since they are not at all easily replaced, especially with decreasing access to western components.

 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,059
38,568
136
Rusty stuff for training. I do hope that its also representative of the weapons they will be fielding in Ukraine;



RIP Russian soldier. You have more bravery than you have field gear.

Bloody hell, looks like he dug that thing out of an Afghan landfill. The chances of getting tetanus for the shooter seem higher than hitting targets. Just imagine the expressions of these guys, being told you're being sent against experienced and motivated well armed people, and here, use this. If the barrel is ok and that piston still works, it'll probably fire. I expect he'll oil the absolute shit out of it, so when the first mag goes through the Ukrainians will see a guy trying to wave away all kinds of white smoke.

Good luck with that Yuri. I'd trade it for a white flag if I were you.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,880
34,834
136
Bloody hell, looks like he dug that thing out of an Afghan landfill. The chances of getting tetanus for the shooter seem higher than hitting targets. Just imagine the expressions of these guys, being told you're being sent against experienced and motivated well armed people, and here, use this. If the barrel is ok and that piston still works, it'll probably fire. I expect he'll oil the absolute shit out of it, so when the first mag goes through the Ukrainians will see a guy trying to wave away all kinds of white smoke.

Good luck with that Yuri. I'd trade it for a white flag is I were you.

Some posters are like "wipe it down with oil and it will be fine, it's an AK" but seeing what looks like a lot more than light surface rust on some examples would make me want to take it down before agreeing.
 
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Nov 17, 2019
11,295
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Suppose Iran is intentionally sending less than prime drones. Take the money and run kind of thing.

Plus they fake Israel into thinking their stuff isn't all that great.
 
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trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,682
7,181
136


Given the reputation that AK's have earned the hard way about being able to take an inordinate amount of abuse and still manage to put rounds downrange, I'm thinking an overnight soak in kerosene or MEK and enthusiastically drop testing them several times to shake things loose would do the job of getting quite a few of those exhumed relics serviceable again.

edit - Just saw K1052's post a couple above this one and agree from a practical point of view. I personally wouldn't want to hit the line with one of those thinking it's the only object of affection of mine that would keep me alive for the duration.
 
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