Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,875
10,300
136
I did not find that one funny.

A Russian citizen was drafted to fight for his country. He answered the call to service and fought heroically against the enemies of the Russian Federation before succumbing to his wounds.

The man is a hero, and I only pray I would have as much courage in his place.
It was the military officer that (might have) died. The gunman was arrested.


A gunman apparently distraught over Russia’s chaotic military mobilization opened fire at a draft office in Siberia on Monday, seriously wounding a recruitment officer, as the Kremlin for the first time acknowledged errors in the call-up of hundreds of thousands of civilians to bolster Russia’s struggling army in Ukraine.

The authorities in the far eastern region of Irkutsk arrested the assailant, identifying him as Ruslan Zinin, who is in his mid-20s. The suspect’s mother, Marina Zinina, told a local news outlet that her son’s close friend had received a draft summons despite having never served in the army, after Russia’s defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, pledged last week that only men with military experience and a specialization would be called up.
 
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Commodus

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2004
9,215
6,818
136
The OSINT accounts dedicated to visually confirming dead Russian soldiers doubt their KIA are as high as 50,000. The latest estimates I’ve seen are 30-40k.

Total KIA is not the big story here though. Russia has lost a massive amount of their generals, commanders, and especially their elite soldiers.

And of course Russia has insane equipment losses with virtually no way to replace them. And of course they keep giving half of their shit to Ukraine.

That Putin is either unaware of this or (more likely) ignoring it is baffling. Sending hundreds of thousands of reservists to the front doesn't matter if they don't have the gear or leadership to mount effective attacks. They'll crash against Ukrainian forces like waves against rocks, and I wouldn't be surprised if they instead sit inside their bases, unable or unwilling to go on the offense.

And what happens if/when Russia starts suffering horrendous losses as these troops fall apart? While I wouldn't count on a full-fledged revolution, it's hard to ignore the parallels between Czarist Russia's wastes of life in WWI and what's happening now.
 

brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
26,697
25,021
136
That Putin is either unaware of this or (more likely) ignoring it is baffling. Sending hundreds of thousands of reservists to the front doesn't matter if they don't have the gear or leadership to mount effective attacks. They'll crash against Ukrainian forces like waves against rocks, and I wouldn't be surprised if they instead sit inside their bases, unable or unwilling to go on the offense.

And what happens if/when Russia starts suffering horrendous losses as these troops fall apart? While I wouldn't count on a full-fledged revolution, it's hard to ignore the parallels between Czarist Russia's wastes of life in WWI and what's happening now.
That's why the Russians made causalities a state secret. They don't want the populace putting together how bad it really is.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,880
34,833
136
That's why the Russians made causalities a state secret. They don't want the populace putting together how bad it really is.

Nothing says "everything is fine, no problem" like a highly chaotic mobilization that's causing no small amount of civil unrest.
 
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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,844
8,309
136
Nothing says "everything is fine, no problem" like a highly chaotic mobilization that's causing no small amount of civil unrest.
I figure the incidence of domestic terrorism is going to escalate considerably if it hasn't already. This gunman's attack in Siberia is just one instance, and the guy was arrested. Guerilla warfare seems like it could be something the Kremlin is utterly unable to keep from spiraling into their having to reverse course.
 
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Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
3,955
5,826
136
That Putin is either unaware of this or (more likely) ignoring it is baffling. Sending hundreds of thousands of reservists to the front doesn't matter if they don't have the gear or leadership to mount effective attacks. They'll crash against Ukrainian forces like waves against rocks, and I wouldn't be surprised if they instead sit inside their bases, unable or unwilling to go on the offense.

And what happens if/when Russia starts suffering horrendous losses as these troops fall apart? While I wouldn't count on a full-fledged revolution, it's hard to ignore the parallels between Czarist Russia's wastes of life in WWI and what's happening now.

It sounds like we’ll find out pretty soon. There are multiple reports of them already in Ukraine.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,880
34,833
136
And mud season is here, normally not as bad as spring, but bad enough... 15 ton MRAP stuck in a foot of mud or so. All that armor not so great for off-road mobility

The problem is wheels. An M113 (which we have given them 200 of) would have no problem with that mud. We'll probably send Ukraine many more of them since there are lots in inventory and due to be phased out.
 
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pcgeek11

Lifer
Jun 12, 2005
21,512
4,607
136
I'm going to assume we have a pretty good idea of where all there subs are right now. From my understanding, we always did in the cold war.


No, we didn't Always know where their submarines were during the cold war. A good many were located and when they were they were tracked by the fast boats.

It is a very large ocean and submarines are tiny in comparison. Think about how hard it would be to locate one. And if it is located and it detects it is being tracked, it can sneak away using salt layers etc... to hide.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,058
38,568
136
When does Putin send in Steven Seagal? That's what I want to know.

I can see him in a PR stunt training conscripts. It would be him making drunk Russians watch his shit movies.
 
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KMFJD

Lifer
Aug 11, 2005
29,685
43,947
136
When does Putin send in Steven Seagal? That's what I want to know.

I can see him in a PR stunt training conscripts. It would be him making drunk Russians watch his shit movies.
Probably still investigating the hospital the Russians Ukrainians blew up
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,818
49,513
136
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/world/europe/ukraine-donbas-russia-lyman-bakhmut.html

Lyman has not fallen and has been reinforced. Lots of pressure on it. Might become surrounded. Ukraine concentrating on it has allowed Russia to dig in elsewhere.

Bakhmut is under huge pressure and may fall to the Russians. Unrelenting artillery strategy in use there.
From everything I’ve read Bakhmut is strategically irrelevant so if the Russians are pushing there this is just yet another massive fuckup on their part.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,880
34,833
136
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/world/europe/ukraine-donbas-russia-lyman-bakhmut.html

Lyman has not fallen and has been reinforced. Lots of pressure on it. Might become surrounded. Ukraine concentrating on it has allowed Russia to dig in elsewhere.

Bakhmut is under huge pressure and may fall to the Russians. Unrelenting artillery strategy in use there.

Ukraine needs to tale Lyman to help cover their flank as they advance on Svatove. It has no utility at this point as a logistics hub as the Times story says.
 
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Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,705
5,434
136
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/world/europe/ukraine-donbas-russia-lyman-bakhmut.html

Lyman has not fallen and has been reinforced. Lots of pressure on it. Might become surrounded. Ukraine concentrating on it has allowed Russia to dig in elsewhere.

Bakhmut is under huge pressure and may fall to the Russians. Unrelenting artillery strategy in use there.
I think Lyman is a trap of sorts

In the cold math of war Bakhmut favors Ukraine. Russia dumps in massive resources and blood to take one town via ww1 style attrition from the TDF, while Ukraine takes them back in job lots with maneuver tactics.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,880
34,833
136
From everything I’ve read Bakhmut is strategically irrelevant so if the Russians are pushing there this is just yet another massive fuckup on their part.

They've also been trying for three months and made little appreciable progress at massive cost.
 
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