Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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Nov 17, 2019
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They say there were explosions. Can they tell what kind of explosions? Can they identify one type of charge from another? Planted devices from say .... torpedoes?
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,786
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Delusions of grandeur, or simply reaffirming their intent from the beginning?
If they can muster 100-200k men from the north, including Belarus, does Ukraine have enough men and ammo to hold a 3,000 km long line?

Russian state TV: “This is not the last referendum. Kharkiv, Kyiv and Poltava will follow. We are at the beginning. We will bring everyone back to the motherland.”
According to these clowns we are like three conquests of Ukraine, two nuclear wars, and 700 destroyed HIMARS in.
 
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Dave_5k

Golden Member
May 23, 2017
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I’m embarrassed I never made this point before. It really lays bare just how stupid this war is. Russia’s problems are self inflicted and more land won’t solve them.

#1 country in world, in value of natural resource reserves (oil, natural gas, coal, gold, diamonds, rare earth metals, etc.)
#3 country in world, in area of arable land (only behind US, India), #5 or so in food production

Crazy rich country, but instead it is mostly stolen by a small oligarchy, or left undeveloped, rather than used to invest and develop the people and the country.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
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Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
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They say there were explosions. Can they tell what kind of explosions? Can they identify one type of charge from another? Planted devices from say .... torpedoes?
Yes.

Yes.

Yes.

It is not rocket science. It is materials science.


hints:
temperature effects the metal in specific ways
propagation (order) of the explosion effects the metal of the pipe line in specific ways
chemicals used in the explosive fuse decayed components with the material of the pipe line in specific ways
internal blasts are visibly different from external, which in turn are different from a device exploding several feet away
torpedoes leave torpedo parts behind
quite frequently parts of the detonator can be found
 
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Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
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Russia never started this war for land though. It was a myriad other reasons.
Glory.
It is a war for Glory.

Glory is impossible to obtain via war. The victory condition was never obtainable.


Ukraine will not obtain glory in this war. Ukraine will obtain its glory afterward, when it builds a shining civilization free of Russian tyranny. When its children play without fear of the orcs. That will be Ukraine's glory. The warm summer days of peace afterward.
 
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amenx

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 2004
4,007
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Y'know, rather than a specific military response, the US could just offer a billion dollars, extraction, citizenship, and the promise to disappear anyone who offs Putin. Prolly be a lot cheaper and more effective.

Hell they should do that now.
If I were the US, I would offer Putin a sweet deal that would be hard to turn down. Negotiate a quick end to the war and to grant Putin political asylum in the U.S. with a $ billion of his own money. That would include his family and to live free in a secluded and protected place for the rest of his life. The other Russians in the leadership would be thankful for a way out of their predicament esp if it could come to a quick and painless end like this.

Putin would go for it. Because he cares more for his own skin and family than his country.
 

RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
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---

If I were the US, I would offer Putin a sweet deal that would be hard to turn down. Negotiate a quick end to the war and to grant Putin political asylum in the U.S. with a $ billion of his own money. That would include his family and to live free in a secluded and protected place for the rest of his life. The other Russians in the leadership would be thankful for a way out of their predicament esp if it could come to a quick and painless end like this.

Putin would go for it. Because he cares more for his own skin and family than his country.
I often thought this might work well for North Korea. Dear Leader loves Western goods already. But I fear he loves adoration even more.

Besides, if Putin gives up his reign, he loses control over FSB. So no matter where he lives, open windows and cups of tea will always remain a danger to him. Putin would have made a serious amount of enemies over his lifetime. And the amount of dangerous secrets that are in his head would preclude him for having a long life in retirement.
 
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Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
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That is not possible.
Putin could never trust the US.
And given the sort of tyranny he enjoys at home, Putin can trust no one.
Putin would never trust the US . . . or anyone but himself. One lonely little man . . . all the more dangerous for it.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,571
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Sobering New Yorker article:

As I stated some pages ago, we need to "raise" the Defcon level. Because Putin WILL do it. We need to be loud and clear about the consequences.
We also need to mobilize our military forces and get them into position. This is happening. We need conventional options if we opt for measured responses.

There must be no mistake. We are at war with Russia.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
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As I stated some pages ago, we need to "raise" the Defcon level. Because Putin WILL do it. We need to be loud and clear about the consequences.
We also need to mobilize our military forces and get them into position. This is happening. We need conventional options if we opt for measured responses.

There must be no mistake. We are at war with Russia.
What makes you think we aren't already at defcon 1/2?
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
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What makes you think we aren't already at defcon 1/2?

What I am saying is... it needs to be loud and clear. That we are able and willing. That MAD still exists, despite Russian TV proclaiming otherwise.
Our deterrence is having its bluff called. It is time to show our hand.

They are less likely to nuke Ukraine if we demonstrate our readiness.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,019
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Buying Putin off? The problem with that kind of idea is that it ignores Putin demonizing the West for decades, portraying democracy as an inferior, decaying type of system and villifying the people who run it. His paranoia and hatred of NATO and the US in particular has permeated everything he's done since the mid 90s. This fleeing to the West idea would require all of that to suddenly go away, as well as for him to trust Washington and Brussels. Now add in the culture war stuff, how he sees himself as a defender of both Russian masculinity and the Orthodox church. He has always blamed us for the Maidan remember, Ukrainian agency is a figment to him, always will be.

Ain't happening guys. He knows he's got a limited amount of time left on earth and he's committed to his course. Money could still well play a big role in things to come, but I doubt it will involve Putin personally. Generals, bratva oligarchs, siloviki, there are people in those groups who might still act, be reasoned with, or just be greased with cash. I'd say let's see what a few more wipeouts of conscripts does but I don't think there is time.

Tomorrow is the day Moscow claims it will make annexation official. We might not be waiting long to see what happens. I think he's going to serve up a demonstration, just not sure if the target will be something minimal, or something major. Like Kyiv. Don't want to give me what I want? Then you'll catch more micro warheads in Ukraine for attacking my annexed areas. He didn't give a shit about his troops catching all that radiation from the ground around Chernobyl, the minor amount of radiation from the smaller warheads will be ignored too.



Ugh this sucks. I don't claim to know what we should do, but I know Putin doesn't want money. What he wants is Ukraine to never outshine Russia, he wants to prevent a healthy Slavic democracy from threatening the bravta way of Russian life with examples of much better.
 
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Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
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What I am saying is... it needs to be loud and clear. That we are able and willing. That MAD still exists, despite Russian TV proclaiming otherwise.
Our deterrence is having its bluff called. It is time to show our hand.

They are less likely to nuke Ukraine if we demonstrate our readiness.
MAD no longer exists.

Russia pulled out of the treatys.

We can now knock down enough of what Russia can throw back that it would be a disaster for NATO. It would be an extermination of Russia.

If Russia forces the issue a world without Russia is a possiblity.
 
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RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
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Tomorrow is the day Moscow claims it will make annexation official. We might not be waiting long to see what happens. I think he's going to serve up a demonstration, just not sure if the target will be something minimal, or something major.
No demo yet. I think he will issue an ultimatum to Ukraine to back off or else. Maybe in a few days when Ukraine has continuously flipped the bird at Putin's ultimatum will he escalate again.

But I don't think he will ever use a nuke. tactical or otherwise. There is a greater change of Belarus entering the war than Putin using nukes.

Poland should mass 100k of their troops at the Belarusian border. For 'exercises' only ofcause...
 
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WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
30,967
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Even if we did pay Putin off to defect Russia would still be fucked. There's a bunch of crazies (even more so than Putin) just ready to take over.
Russia isn't a Liberal democracy in the waiting held back by one leader, the fuckedness runs deep.

What the solution is I don't know but we need to find one. Maybe the slow approachment of former iron curtain countries to the West and the obvious increase in standards of living for them will lead to a slow erosion of the philosophy they have. But for that to happen the West needs to be the best it can be, strive for standards of living for the common man and just be open to countries wanting to emulate.
 
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WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
30,967
8,688
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But I don't think he will ever use a nuke. tactical or otherwise. There is a greater change of Belarus entering the war than Putin using nukes.
I'm not convinced that he won't. I think that we certainly have to consider it. I'm hoping that we have every thing possible aimed at their nuke capabilities and that it's ready to fire. I'm half convinced that if there's more escalation from Russia and credible evidence of activity at launch sites then we should preemptively trash as much of their nuclear capabilities as possible.
 
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