I know people have been saying that “Lyman will fall soon” for awhile…but it sounds like Lyman will fall soon.
I know people have been saying that “Lyman will fall soon” for awhile…but it sounds like Lyman will fall soon.
It is a very wide border. How heavily defended would the path to Lviv be?
Remember, Russia wants the polish border. Not just a few pieces of Ukraine - but the entirety of it.
I’m embarrassed I never made this point before. It really lays bare just how stupid this war is. Russia’s problems are self inflicted and more land won’t solve them.
I have a hard time seeing Poland just standing by and watching that happen.
How much would it take for Poland to say F it and roll across the border in active defense of Ukraine?
I don't know where it's at, but there is a line to be crossed by Russia
What would Putin gain? Lets work through it;I'm not convinced that he won't. I think that we certainly have to consider it. I'm hoping that we have every thing possible aimed at their nuke capabilities and that it's ready to fire. I'm half convinced that if there's more escalation from Russia and credible evidence of activity at launch sites then we should preemptively trash as much of their nuclear capabilities as possible.
If Belarus moves in, Poland could 'declare war' on Ukraine and annex Northern and Western parts of Ukraine. Declare this area a protectorate of Poland and tell Belarus to pull their forces back, otherwise....I have a hard time seeing Poland just standing by and watching that happen.
How much would it take for Poland to say F it and roll across the border in active defense of Ukraine?
I don't know where it's at, but there is a line to be crossed by Russia
I can't see any exit strategy for Putin that doesn't end well for him. He can only escalate. He can't blink. Its only the Russian army and the FSB that can stop this war. Ukraine can't stop it. Neither can the Europeans.
Putty would get very angry (i.e. worried!).Y'know, rather than a specific military response, the US could just offer a billion dollars, extraction, citizenship, and the promise to disappear anyone who offs Putin. Prolly be a lot cheaper and more effective.
Hell they should do that now.
I'm not convinced that he won't. I think that we certainly have to consider it. I'm hoping that we have every thing possible aimed at their nuke capabilities and that it's ready to fire. I'm half convinced that if there's more escalation from Russia and credible evidence of activity at launch sites then we should preemptively trash as much of their nuclear capabilities as possible.
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If I were the US, I would offer Putin a sweet deal that would be hard to turn down. Negotiate a quick end to the war and to grant Putin political asylum in the U.S. with a $ billion of his own money. That would include his family and to live free in a secluded and protected place for the rest of his life. The other Russians in the leadership would be thankful for a way out of their predicament esp if it could come to a quick and painless end like this.
I think he's really sick and doesn't anticipate being a well man again. He's playing out what he conceives to be his destiny as a ruler of Russia. He will die in Russia, sooner or later.Putin would go for it. Because he cares more for his own skin and family than his country.
If Belarus moves in, Poland could 'declare war' on Ukraine and annex Northern and Western parts of Ukraine. Declare this area a protectorate of Poland and tell Belarus to pull their forces back, otherwise....
After Ukraine and Russia makes peace Poland waiver all claims to any Ukrainian territory.
There has been a lot of messaging going on between Washington and Moscow behind the scenes concerning these things. Of course, they aren't publicizing the exact nature of that messaging.What I am saying is... it needs to be loud and clear. That we are able and willing. That MAD still exists, despite Russian TV proclaiming otherwise.
Our deterrence is having its bluff called. It is time to show our hand.
They are less likely to nuke Ukraine if we demonstrate our readiness.
What would Putin gain? Lets work through it;
Given that the only usage of nuclear weapons being used successfully were in overwhelming examples against soft targets, I'd expect something similar from Russia. Assuming any of this shit is functional, large ICBM against Kyiv, multiple smaller weapons of various grades against other cities with the intent to force capitulation. May not even waste time with the front, unless it's in a freshly captured city.The bolded is why I think he might go nuclear. He has to at least take the South of the country otherwise he's toast as a leader. He doesn't give a shit about the rest of Ukraine now, he knows that he can't capture it and he knows that Ukraine will never trust Russia. If he thinks that nukes will give him an advantage he'll use them and gamble that the west won't escalate too much.
Given that the only example of nuclear weapons being used successfully were in overwhelming examples against soft targets, I'd expect something similar from Russia. Assuming any of this shit is functional, large ICBM against Kyiv, multiple smaller weapons of various grades against other cities with the intent to force capitulation. May not even waste time with the front, unless it's in a freshly captured city.
Yep, and that sounds very on-brand for 2022 Russia.Launching an ICBM of any sort is incredibly dangerous as the target is hard to discern at the time of launch, and there isn't much time to react. Given the nuclear threats against the UK in particular he may get more that bargained for.
While neither you nor I know for sure, I still must point out that this is a trap we fall into of demonizing or diminishing an adversarial leader. Don't get me wrong, Putin is an amoral piece of shit by our standards . . . and we participated in killing a couple of million Vietnamese civilians in a geo-strategic blunder bloodier than Putin in Ukraine.I think he's really sick and doesn't anticipate being a well man again.
If he goes tactical and survives it… he is gonna be 10x the bully on the international scene that he is today. 100x. Normalization of tactical nukes - cause why not.
I think the west should novichok him asap…
The difference is, we can criticize the Vietnam war as well. Maybe that's a microcosm of the general population, but goddamn if I don't feel like I could kill motherfuckers like this with pure force of will.While neither you nor I know for sure, I still must point out that this is a trap we fall into of demonizing or diminishing an adversarial leader. Don't get me wrong, Putin is an amoral piece of shit by our standards . . . and we participated in killing a couple of million Vietnamese civilians in a geo-strategic blunder bloodier than Putin in Ukraine.
But by his lights Putin is a Greater Russian patriot. He has said that the dissolution of the USSR was the greatest tragedy of his life. How would US "patriots" feel if we somehow had had to cede Texas and California back to Mexico?
To truly know your enemy, it is critical to see him through his own world view. I don't know, but I can't just a priori dismiss him as either terminally crazy or physically unwell.
And if he can be made to realize that it would be a powerful deterrent. He was obsessed with the death of Kaddafi. If his escalating to nukes increases the risk of his dying a grisly death, he is apt to be quite hesitant to go there.Have to make it the end of him. His head on a pike has to be warning to all other would be aggressors (NK, Iran, etc) else this will become an accepted option
“Almost all of Gaddafi’s family has been killed, his corpse was shown on all global television channels, it was impossible to watch without disgust,” Putin said. “The man was all covered in blood, still alive and he was being finished off.”