Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[K1052]

Putin is making operational decisions (no retreat from Lyman, must take Bkhmut, etc) with predictable results.

 

[Muse]

No demo yet. I think he will issue an ultimatum to Ukraine to back off or else. Maybe in a few days when Ukraine has continuously flipped the bird at Putin's ultimatum will he escalate again.

But I don't think he will ever use a nuke. tactical or otherwise. There is a greater change of Belarus entering the war than Putin using nukes.

Poland should mass 100k of their troops at the Belarusian border. For 'exercises' only ofcause...

Putin will declare annexation but do nothing of significance. This last week with the phony referendum will deliver tomorrow's pomp and brag that he's restored part of Russia. The shenanigans change nothing.

 

[zinfamous]

The Holy Grail must be located in Bakhmut...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575623836145709057

Or maybe Putin promised Wagner a hefty bonus if they took the town. And they have been trying ever since.

scrolling down....that's a lot of um, stuffs that RA seems to have lost today. Dang.

 

[Michael]

@Michael, Thoughts?

I hope this time it is true. I said every post that I hope that my worry is for nothing but tomorrow is the day posts have been steady for 2 weeks …

If Lyman does fall I will be here celebrating.

 

[Dave_5k]

The Holy Grail must be located in Bakhmut...

"Bring out your dead..."

 

[Zorba]

I don't remember hearing about direct aid from South Korea in the past:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575623851035136000

 

[Muse]

2.9 billion $ from S. Korea is a good chunk. IIRC the US has spent $30 billion in military aid to Ukraine, maybe a bit more as of right now.

 

[K1052]

I don't remember hearing about direct aid from South Korea in the past:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575623851035136000

I think arms are being purchased for Ukraine from South Korea. SK policy is that they won’t directly supply a conflict but washing them through a 3rd party satisfies their requirements. Buying from SK makes a lot of sense given their huge industrial capacity and mature arms industry.

 

[RnR_au]

2.9 billion $ from S. Korea is a good chunk. IIRC the US has spent $30 billion in military aid to Ukraine, maybe a bit more as of right now.

Soviet Union received $150+bil via Lend-Lease during WW2. There is a bit to go yet

 

[RnR_au]

Lyman cut off.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575711123436818432

 

[Leeea]

Sept 28, General Petraeus on DW ( German State Media ) on various subjects, including nukes and what Ukraine needs most:

 

[Jaskalas]

The Holy Grail must be located in Bakhmut...

The Russian command and control is so archaic and inept that they cannot make strategic decisions.

Putin, or someone, pointed to the map and off they march... to Bakhmut. Irregardless of the situation on the ground. Or the cost in lives. Of course Russia does not value lives. Ukrainian or Russian.
We have witnessed this same consistent ignorance throughout the war, from the first days outside Kyiv. A massive Russian column was trapped on a road for weeks. Trying to press forward and unable to pause or move around. Unable to reassess and make the most out of the situation. They are simply point and click to march on a direction. The sheer stupidity from the world's "#2" military has been incredible to watch, but they have demonstrated such inability to think, to process information, and to react... every day of this six month war.

If they meet an immovable object... they simply throw bodies at it. Russian tactics have been VERY helpful to Ukraine.
There was a moment in the early summer where Russia regrouped.... concentrated its entire military force, and used artillery bombardment to push the east and make slow but steady gains. This ability to push through was largely exhausted after Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Then, before Russia could re-arm... HIMARs arrived and blew the hell out of Russia's only method of winning ground.

Instead, they choose to randomly throw missiles and other bombs at Ukrainian cities. Slaughtering civilians in their own homes.
Some days... the news makes my blood boil and I want vengeance for these poor people. I cannot describe my rage and want for action to end this.

Spoiler: Not Safe for Life (NSFL)

Ukrainian mother Natasha brought her children, (8- and 12-year-olds) to their Grandma’s house in Dnipro. September 29th, 2022, a Russian missile left (8*10 m crater) where the house was. The grandma, mom, son, daughter, all killed. Only old dog left survive, howling, deaf & blind from the strike.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575595953351901184

 

[KMFJD]

JFC, they fucking hit a civilian convoy trying to bring in supplies to Zaporizhzhia 23 dead 28 wounded

Spoiler: nsfl

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575763043014819848

 

[kage69]

While neither you nor I know for sure, I still must point out that this is a trap we fall into of demonizing or diminishing an adversarial leader. Don't get me wrong, Putin is an amoral piece of shit by our standards . . . and we participated in killing a couple of million Vietnamese civilians in a geo-strategic blunder bloodier than Putin in Ukraine.

But by his lights Putin is a Greater Russian patriot. He has said that the dissolution of the USSR was the greatest tragedy of his life. How would US "patriots" feel if we somehow had had to cede Texas and California back to Mexico?

To truly know your enemy, it is critical to see him through his own world view. I don't know, but I can't just a priori dismiss him as either terminally crazy or physically unwell.

But that's not really analogous to what's happening with Ukraine. Those examples lack some relevant cultural and historical distinctions you can't ignore with Ukraine/Russia. Then there is the genocide bit. FWIW I know more than a few American patriots who would be ecstatic to be rid of Texas. They don't see self-determination as the boogeyman Putin does. The GQP ability and agenda to warp and corrupt our democracy would be hamstrung overnight. I'm sure it would be complicated and painful but it wouldn't be the existential threat Putin sees in Ukrainian sovereignty, we wouldn't see Texans in mass graves for instance.

I hear you about the terminal crazy part, that is a big one too, but Putin is physically unwell. He takes the surgeon Yevgeny Selivanov almost everywhere with him, a thyroid specialist. Also a couple others, cancer specialists. It's pretty obvious he's been on steroids for awhile, generally not required for someone in good health. There's been some speculation he's actually been having a bit of 'roid rage.'

 

[Jaskalas]

In his annexation speech today, Putin declares nuclear war?

PUTIN: UNITED STATES USED NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN JAPAN TWICE, CREATED PRECEDENT
I assume this is an accurate quote from just a few minutes ago.

 

[fskimospy]

In his annexation speech today, Putin declares nuclear war?

PUTIN: UNITED STATES USED NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN JAPAN TWICE, CREATED PRECEDENT
I assume this is an accurate quote from just a few minutes ago.

The 700th time they threaten nuclear war they mean it!

 

[Jaskalas]

The 700th time they threaten nuclear war they mean it!

Today's a bit different as Russia claims further ownership of Ukraine. And this time Putin is being very specific.
He specifically cited us using nukes to subdue Japan. Thus he is going to act on that precedent.

 

[fskimospy]

Today's a bit different as Russia claims further ownership of Ukraine. And this time Putin is being very specific.
He specifically cited us using nukes to subdue Japan. Thus he is going to act on that precedent.

I think if Putin gets desperate enough he might, as again the conflict for him is existential and if he loses he’s dead.

That being said the obvious purpose of these public threats is not to inform the world of his nuclear weapons policy, it’s a desperate attempt to get the west to stop helping Ukraine - one that will fail.

 

[Commodus]

Today's a bit different as Russia claims further ownership of Ukraine. And this time Putin is being very specific.
He specifically cited us using nukes to subdue Japan. Thus he is going to act on that precedent.

"No really, I mean it this time!" doesn't amount to much from a leader who lies about virtually everything, mind you. It doesn't change the ground truth: if he uses even one nuke, the world declares war against him and his regime ends.

 

[fskimospy]

"No really, I mean it this time!" doesn't amount to much from a leader who lies about virtually everything, mind you. It doesn't change the ground truth: if he uses even one nuke, the world declares war against him and his regime ends.

Seriously, at what point are people going to start ignoring everything Russia and Putin say? As you say they lie about EVERYTHING.

 

[kage69]

I think arms are being purchased for Ukraine from South Korea. SK policy is that they won’t directly supply a conflict but washing them through a 3rd party satisfies their requirements. Buying from SK makes a lot of sense given their huge industrial capacity and mature arms industry.

Correct, we picked up the tab on this one.

It's still a bit of a change as until now the things South Korea was OK sending were non lethal, medical supplies, that sort of thing. This time its things that go boom.

Kamsahamnida Seoul!

 

[Jaskalas]

I think if Putin gets desperate enough he might

Lyman is falling as we speak.

Video showing a platoon-sized group of Russians retreating in complete panic on foot in #Lyman, running from an area of cover into a kill zone. It has begun.

 

[kage69]

Seriously, at what point are people going to start ignoring everything Russia and Putin say? As you say they lie about EVERYTHING.

Within reason but yeah you need to treat them like repugs. Ignore what they say. Pay attention to what they do.

 

[kage69]

Lyman is falling as we speak.

Video showing a platoon-sized group of Russians retreating in complete panic on foot in #Lyman, running from an area of cover into a kill zone. It has begun.

Awesome. Nice work Ukrainian defenders.


Also, just a friendly plug, Perk's article a page or two back is worth reading for those who haven't.

 

[K1052]

I liked the part where he was obviously very pissed his energy blackmail didn't work.