Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[Perknose]

What's odd is the (admittedly normal) accounts of the amount of abandoned Russian heavy equipment in good working order. It's one thing to abandon it during a fighting withdrawal and quite another to fail to destroy equipment you know you can't retrieve before a planned withdrawal.

Word. Why would they not simply pause to booby trap and/or at least monkey wrench equipment that will otherwise be used against them? It's incomprehensible! But then, this whole shit show of a withdrawal is incomprehensible.

 

[cytg111]

Because these “soldiers” are not thinking for themselves and no order came down to do so.
The order probably implied “get the hardware out” but was parsed as “RUN FOR YOUR LIFE SUKA”.

 

[RnR_au]

Because these “soldiers” are not thinking for themselves and no order came down to do so.

If they received orders it might have been something like this;

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590834142153146368

Solovyev is pissed...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590827196079550464

Ofcause he is pissed at people. Not at the machine. He is part of this machine... a machine that can't have people telling the truth.

 

[RnR_au]

I personally would like to see their military so weakened it may not be possible to rebuild for many, many years.

They will never become NATO quality until there is a culture of questioning. And this has to come from the top and part of the national institutions.

Like the video above... so much fake anger. But no questions into the regime and its culture.

 

[Dave_5k]

Nice graphic of last 24 hours (just confirmed changes, which is probably ~24 hours old given Ukraine op-sec), in before Twitter goes belly-up:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590857998770896896

 

[Jaskalas]

Wonder what forced the Russians to withdraw at this point.
Supplies were running low?
Either way, good progress so far....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590956200195395586

 

[Leeea]

oh boy have they gone to the right, such a shame , looks like Bibi's back



anyways sorry for the derail, ever wonder what it's like to survive an anti-tank mine?

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/yqz3hv/nucking_futs_turret_pov_antitank_mine_blast/

one of his guys did not make it

drone view of above linked POV video:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoot...krainians_hmmwvs_are_on_a_raid_when_they_are/

 

[RnR_au]

Interesting stuff coming out of European armories;

🇪🇸 Spain sending 4 MIM-23 HAWK air-defense systems, 🇬🇧 U.K. supplying 1000 missiles.
This set hints offensive with close range air defense against 🇷🇺 front-line aviation.

From https://wartranslated.com/day-260-november-10th-summary-of-arestovych-and-feygin-daily-broadcast/

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

^^ But will any of that take the air out of a Bear?





(Or a Bear out of the air?)

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

"According to the analysis by satellite data monitoring firm SpaceKnow, the two “dark ships,” each measuring around 95 to 130 meters long, passed within several miles of the Nord Stream 2 leak sites. “We have detected some dark ships, meaning vessels that were of a significant size, that were passing through that area of interest,” says Jerry Javornicky, the CEO and cofounder of SpaceKnow. “They had their beacons off, meaning there was no information about their movement, and they were trying to keep their location information and general information hidden from the world,” Javornicky adds"


"
To detect the ships, Javornicky says, the company scoured 90 days of archived satellite images for the area. The company analyzes images from multiple satellite systems—including paid and free services—and uses machine learning to detect objects within them. This includes the ability to monitor roads, buildings, and changes in landscapes. "We have 38 specific algorithms that can detect military equipment," Javornicky says, adding that SpaceKnow’s system can detect specific models of aircraft on landing strips.

Once it gathered archive images of the area, SpaceKnow created a series of polygons around the gas leak sites. The smallest of these, around 400 square meters, covered the immediate blast area, and larger areas of interest covered several kilometers. In the weeks leading up to the explosions, SpaceKnow detected 25 ships passing through the region, from “cargo ships to multipurpose larger ships,” Javornicky says. In total, 23 of these vessels had their automatic identification system (AIS) transponders turned on. Two did not have AIS data turned on, and these ships passed the area during the days immediately ahead of the leaks being detected."


"“It would not be common practice [to have AIS turned off], unless the vessels have a classified military mission or they would have some clandestine objectives, because the Baltic Sea is one of the busiest seas in the world in terms of commercial traffic,” says Otto Tabuns, the director of the Baltic Security Foundation, an NGO that focuses on the region."

‘Dark Ships’ Emerge From the Shadows of the Nord Stream Mystery

Satellite monitors discovered two vessels with their trackers turned off in the area of the pipeline prior to the suspected sabotage in September.

www.wired.com

If they can track those ships before and after, perhaps they could determine an origin or destination.

 

[KMFJD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591028852322885633

Antovski bridge is definitely gone, nothing heavy is leaving that side of the river, good luck swimming across

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590987957518811136

 

[KMFJD]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590819004389949440

that ought to be great for moral, i saw it described as Dunkirk, but with idiots in charge

 

[kage69]

A rear guard that doesn't know it's the rear guard?

That's how infantry marathons start.

 

[Michael]

Unfortunately I expect the Russians to pretty immediately start shelling Kherson and turn it into even more of a ruin than their occupation made it.

Won’t stop until they are defeated across all of Ukraine and a peace deal is reached.

I am guessing that next up is pressuring the coastal areas to the east of Kherson that do not require crossing a big river.

 

[K1052]

Congrats to Ukraine on liberation of everything west of the Dnipro.

 

[K1052]

Unfortunately I expect the Russians to pretty immediately start shelling Kherson and turn it into even more of a ruin than their occupation made it.

Won’t stop until they are defeated across all of Ukraine and a peace deal is reached.

I am guessing that next up is pressuring the coastal areas to the east of Kherson that do not require crossing a big river.

Ukrainian counter battery fire is much more accurate and longer range than the Russians. So slagging the city with 152s would be a short lived job most likely. They could harass the city with MLRS fire from longer range systems but again the Ukrainians also have GMLRS and their own Smerches.

Also most of the Russian logistics train all the way to Crimea is now exposed to fire. They're going to have to move depots and command back yet again.

I presume the Russians will mostly go into a defensive crouch here and dedicate assets/manpower farther east.

 

[Jaskalas]

Congrats to Ukraine on liberation of everything west of the Dnipro.

A great day that will likely secure Ukraine's continued existence.
I wonder if the line of contact freezes here?

The river secured Ukraine's victory in Kherson, and it was still extremely hard fought over several months.
Not sure what the prospects are for further gains. Taking the P66 highway comes to mind, which could lead to a domino effect.
Both sides of this war can now concentrate their forces a little more. Without a southern flank to worry about, Ukraine can better prepare for any attacks from Belarus.

Winter is going to be a completely new phase of the war. Let us hope the Ukrainians can handle a winter with limited electricity and heat.

 

[zinfamous]

Solovyev is pissed...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590827196079550464

Ofcause he is pissed at people. Not at the machine. He is part of this machine... a machine that can't have people telling the truth.

This is like a late-stage Taj coming to terms living under the dictatorship he so desperately wants to create. I imagine the blind rage and inability to properly assign blame is quite the same.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Officially official.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591069200281661442

Time to line up artillery and smoke everything south and east of the river.

 

[K1052]

A great day that will likely secure Ukraine's continued existence.
I wonder if the line of contact freezes here?

The river secured Ukraine's victory in Kherson, and it was still extremely hard fought over several months.
Not sure what the prospects are for further gains. Taking the P66 highway comes to mind, which could lead to a domino effect.
Both sides of this war can now concentrate their forces a little more. Without a southern flank to worry about, Ukraine can better prepare for any attacks from Belarus.

Winter is going to be a completely new phase of the war. Let us hope the Ukrainians can handle a winter with limited electricity and heat.

I think the focus for both sides swings to Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk. Russians don't seem to really give a shit about Luhansk.

 

[Roger Wilco]

What new war crime horrors will Ukraine uncover this time…

 

[K1052]

Were I Putin I'd think that now is probably a good time to call it quits and try hammering out an agreement. The prospect of western military aid slacking off is not good and Europe has enough energy to last the winter.

The biggest barrier to any agreement is that the Ukrainians (and I mean all of them) don't trust him. Solving the security part of this is the hardest part and might involve Russian assent to European boots on the ground military presence in Ukraine and expedited EU membership if not NATO membership. This is probably in addition to reparations that Ukraine could use to obtain large amounts of more advanced western military equipment and to produce their own domestic systems. Territorially Putin could probably secure Crimea and the current line of conflict in Donbas but not Zaporizhzhia.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Italy's in:

Meloni tells NATO it can count on Italy in Ukraine



ROME (AP) — Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni pledged Italy’s “strong commitment” to NATO and efforts to end Russia's invasion of Ukraine, taking a firm pro-alliance stance Thursday following the pro-Russia sentiments expressed by one of her governing coalition partners.




Silly Putty's out:
Russia’s Putin won’t attend upcoming G-20 summit in Bali



JAKARTA, Indonesia (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia next week, an Indonesian government official said Thursday, avoiding a possible confrontation with the United States and its allies over his war in Ukraine.

 

[K1052]

Ukraine appears to be making some further improvements to the border with Belarus. This is in addition to other defensive works (tank traps, trenches, bunkers, minefields, etc) that have reportedly been set up along the border.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591121399506440194

 

[KMFJD]

Unfortunately I expect the Russians to pretty immediately start shelling Kherson and turn it into even more of a ruin than their occupation made it.

Won’t stop until they are defeated across all of Ukraine and a peace deal is reached.

I am guessing that next up is pressuring the coastal areas to the east of Kherson that do not require crossing a big river.

they can surely try but Ukrainian artillery outranges them, not to even mention the HIMARS

Here's some organ music from today

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590837958835597312

i can't imagine the hell it is to have to sit through the receiving end of that