Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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Mar 11, 2004
23,177
5,641
146
You've done the same thing in this thread, haven't you? I seem to recall myself, and others, pointing it out to you on more than one occasion.

Your back and forth from 'take them out!' to 'look at the crazy people wishing for WW3' is an odd thing to behold. Maybe don't use "we," stick to speaking for yourself? I don't feel mad.

Those aren't ordinary Russian citizens at all, just an unsurprisingly small group of pissed off imperialists. Some didn't look too fired up at all. Repeated defeats make people angry, they see their country crumbling away in a humiliating fashion. Oh well.

Er, I take it you're not familiar with him? I legit don't know if there's 2 people that use that account because of how often he'll contradict himself, seemingly oblivious to having done exactly the thing he's condemning.
 

Exterous

Super Moderator
Jun 20, 2006
20,429
3,533
126
Financial pressure is continuing to mount for Russia. They've been able to stave off a lot of the sanction impacts but their ability to continue to do so appears to be weakening

Data released by the Russian Ministry of Finance on Friday showed that in the year to October, the government budget surplus stood at 128 billion rubles, or around $2.1 billion, down from a surplus of 2.3 trillion rubles in the same period last year. In October, revenues from a one-off energy tax helped prevent the budget from veering into a deficit for the year, which economists expect to happen by the end of 2022.

The darkening prospects come after the Russian economy showed signs of stabilizing over the summer. GDP is expected to shrink between 3% and 3.5% this year, according to recent forecasts by the country’s central bank, a shallower decline compared with forecasts earlier in the year after sanctions dealt a body blow to the economy.

Quarterly data, however, depicts a worsening trend. While the economy contracted by around 4.1% and 4% in the second and third quarters respectively, it is expected to shrink by 7.1% in the fourth quarter, according to a report by the central bank published this week. For the year as a whole, Russia is expected to record the deepest recession for any large economy.


Tech workers have left the country in very high numbers. While that may or may not have a notable impact short term the impacts seem likely to last long after the war is over

As of Nov. 8, about 13% of Russian developers listed a new country this year and another 13% obscured their location, a rate that is about four times higher than for developers from comparable countries. The most active Russian developers on GitHub were also more likely to have changed their location, his research showed.

In February, ride-sharing startup inDrive, based in Mountain View, Calif., had about 1,200 employees in Moscow and the Siberian city of Yakutsk, where the company was founded.

“We’ll have zero by the end of the year,” said inDrive Chief Executive Arsen Tomsky.

The company had already relocated about 800 employees, mostly to Kazakhstan and Cyprus, before the mobilization. That sped up inDrive’s plans to move the remaining workers, Mr. Tomsky said. Those who don’t want to relocate will be laid off, he said.

 

FireJack

Member
Oct 31, 2015
40
16
81
At the current rate of equipment and manpower losses in a couple months Russia will cease to be a military threat to Europe. All those mainstream media click-bait fantasy's of the russian army suddenly appearing at europes borders without anyone noticing and crushing all opposition with their magic super solders and supertanks will no longer be legitimate.
Once this war is over what is there for NATO to do? A lot of big changes are coming.
 
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rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
4,389
3,120
146
At the current rate of equipment and manpower losses in a couple months Russia will cease to be a military threat to Europe. All those mainstream media click-bait fantasy's of the russian army suddenly appearing at europes borders without anyone noticing and crushing all opposition with their magic super solders and supertanks will no longer be legitimate.
Once this war is over what is there for NATO to do? A lot of big changes are coming.

It kinda suggests they never were. It would have taken some time for them to amass a similar force near Poland or the Baltics, during which NATO could have moved in men, light equipment, and most importantly air power. We always figured NATO air power was superior, but this war suggests that they have no answer at all. Their AD would get suppressed and destroyed in pretty short order, and NATO would obliterate them from the air. Stuff like HIMARS and ATACMS would be ruining them from day one.
 

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,697
5,431
136
That video is impressive, but it is not quite as impressive or crazy as it looks.

Yes, the two Ukrainian soldiers demonstrated exceptional violence of action.


Watch the video closely, something is firing on the Russian position from the bottom right, putting the Russian position in a crossfire.

The white puffs of smoke behind the Russia position makes it look like the flanking unit is firing with an auto cannon with HE rounds. This suggests in addition to the BMP we see pushing the front of the Russian position, another IFV of some sort has flanked to the bottom right and is putting the heat in. Being an IFV, it likely also has an infantry squad with it.

So infantry squad + BMP attacks from the front, while IFV + infantry squad takes position with flanking fire at about 70 degrees to the defensive positions orientation.


The Russians were lucky to escape. If they did escape. They are in a very bad spot, the BMP + IFV could link up and push them along that light forest area.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,806
29,558
146

holy shit, so...the Ukrainians basically just set off a charge at the first wire barrier, tossing up a bunch of noise and smoke, very quickly after arriving...and all those chumps 20 feet back just dumped their load, behind fortifications, and fled?

lol

These guys just rolled off the bus from Vladivostok last night, on a raging hangover, right? jesus christ.

They're probably hearing a lot of stories about recent battles and being in the shit, just arriving in the shit themselves, so you get their complete lack of experience. I bet Ukrainian squads are just pivoting to using smaller but fast and louder assault squads to displace these drunken, unequipped plumbers.

Excellent leadership from UKR field command. It's just so completely impressive right now.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,806
29,558
146
It kinda suggests they never were. It would have taken some time for them to amass a similar force near Poland or the Baltics, during which NATO could have moved in men, light equipment, and most importantly air power. We always figured NATO air power was superior, but this war suggests that they have no answer at all. Their AD would get suppressed and destroyed in pretty short order, and NATO would obliterate them from the air. Stuff like HIMARS and ATACMS would be ruining them from day one.

correct. This really exposes the kind of posturing that Putin has been all about the last several decades. It shows how massively we've overspent on defense, too, lol. .....but it works now. It also gives us great confidence that money can be far more effectively spent elsewhere, without the need to really hamper NATO effectiveness.

Ukraine is a top-notch world military power now in terms of experience and effectiveness, with a pittance of a budget in advanced NATO weaponry, and not nearly all of it. ...not even half of NATO capability, and is taking out "#2."

It's insane.

So, I guess the question going forward in this ranking system is if Russia really was ever #2 and if so well great; or will we be learning that they were just overrated Trumpists and there is a larger devil just waiting for more space in the world.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,806
29,558
146
That video is impressive, but it is not quite as impressive or crazy as it looks.

Yes, the two Ukrainian soldiers demonstrated exceptional violence of action.


Watch the video closely, something is firing on the Russian position from the bottom right, putting the Russian position in a crossfire.

The white puffs of smoke behind the Russia position makes it look like the flanking unit is firing with an auto cannon with HE rounds. This suggests in addition to the BMP we see pushing the front of the Russian position, another IFV of some sort has flanked to the bottom right and is putting the heat in. Being an IFV, it likely also has an infantry squad with it.

So infantry squad + BMP attacks from the front, while IFV + infantry squad takes position with flanking fire at about 70 degrees to the defensive positions orientation.


The Russians were lucky to escape. If they did escape. They are in a very bad spot, the BMP + IFV could link up and push them along that light forest area.

ah yeah, I didn't notice that, but it was near the end, and really the flanking fire only seemed to clear out the 2 remaining Yuris that were somehow determined to stay there and defend against the UKR assault; even after watching a a dozen+ of their friends flee into the ditch road, lol.

Yeah, maybe we missed something without sound and a different camera--what the orcs saw, basically--but I feel like their position was already lost when they fled after that one rush from UKR to lob explosives through the wire barrier, haha. I mean the two orcs that were there close enough to watch the explosive knew that it wasn't a breakthrough, and they just stayed there to keep fighting. It might have worked out for them if the guys on the other side of the channel didn't just panic and run.

granted, even though it was one BMP flanking them with that gun after dropping off it's 2 man assault group (that's what I saw, anyway), and there were probably enough orcs to hold that off that BMP if they didn't panic, I think....they probably weren't armed with shoulder fire or big guns to really do anything about it anyway, lol.


This one is going into a lesson plan in every academy though, that's for sure. haha.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,806
29,558
146
^like, I wonder if UKR is able to devote a lot of cheap drones and image talent to just send out air scouts to get an idea on weaponry stores at these fortifications, as much as anything else.

Can they see what kind of ammo dumps they have in their trenches? scratching out barrels and ammo canisters against the background in whatever kind of images and video are being sent back, and "know enough about enemy camp discipline" to get accurate intel on what actual weaponry each of these lines has to fight with, before you send in your squads?

I guess I'm not at all up on the technology with what the proper drones can actually see and how they are using that data in their planning.

I'm curios if we're at that level of technology and personnel, or just overall resources to make that work part of your overall strategy during these pushes. That kind of thing really makes it possible to push hard against overwhelming numbers of meat shields. At least meat can panic, and you can exploit that if you know that they know they have no real potential to keep their positions if faced with an actual assault.

Hell, in the 40s, you had mustachioed dudes scrutinizing large format 75mm? celluloid images from bomber flyovers with a thumb lens trying to distinguish coal and ammo rail cars and military depots from food stores, civilian infrastructure and such, to identify targets. Surely, the robots are doing a lot of this for us humans now, yeah?
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,571
7,634
136
You have advocated for the attack of Russian forces with NATO assets. That's WW3.

That's the thing. You have no respect for the difference between a Genocidal invasion of Europe.... and defending from that invasion.
The risk was Russia starting a war in the first place. THAT is WW3, as you so dogmatically fear.

Russian forces in foreign countries were fair game for killing the moment they started it. In our fear, we prolong the war and let the Ukrainians pay the price. Ours is an immoral position of letting the Russians dictate how many Ukrainians they get to kill. A world in which we allow genocide under nuclear blackmail, is not one that I accept. My conscience is clear no matter the outcome if we defend.

Sorry you cannot see the difference between that, and "Let us kill all the Ukrainians, or we will turn the world to ash".
My position is VERY different from theirs.

 
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KMFJD

Lifer
Aug 11, 2005
29,676
43,927
136
Absolutely. One of those seems like it would be easier to do than the other though. US and EU solidarity in G20 could count for something. One more thing Hungary can be kicked out of too right? Ha.

A new UN security council means a new UN, let's be honest here. China and Russia both would take issue with their power being diluted or removed. Would need a hell of a lot of agreements, short of Russia using nukes I don't see China signing on either. It's more likely China will continue to protect Russia diplomatically like they always do, resist any effort by the international community to address the terrorist state on the UNSC constantly undermining the UN charter.
without the ability to punish all countries equally (including the USA) the UN is flawed
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,019
38,496
136
That's the thing. You have no respect for the difference between a Genocidal invasion of Europe.... and defending from that invasion.
The risk was Russia starting a war in the first place. THAT is WW3, as you so dogmatically fear.

Russian forces in foreign countries were fair game for killing the moment they started it. In our fear, we prolong the war and let the Ukrainians pay the price. Ours is an immoral position of letting the Russians dictate how many Ukrainians they get to kill. A world in which we allow genocide under nuclear blackmail, is not one that I accept. My conscience is clear no matter the outcome if we defend.

Sorry you cannot see the difference between that, and "Let us kill all the Ukrainians, or we will turn the world to ash".
My position is VERY different from theirs.


So in addition to not being able to admit when you are wrong or misspoke, you just don't have a fucking clue what you are talking about. Very unfortunate.

Still waiting for you to quote even a single post of mine that in any way corroborates this straw you are pulling from your ass. We both know that won't be happening though, right? Easier to keep fapping away about your conscious, what you can "accept." lol Heading over soon?

Don't worry Jaskalas, I won't bother expecting you to make sense again. This concludes my efforts to prod you towards answers you can't see, or choose not to.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,019
38,496
136
Thank God Kherson was liberated without urban fighting. I was terrified that it would be reduced to rubble before the Russians gave it up.

It is a big deal, especially for the guys who would have to do the clearing. Still a mess there though, the Russians sabotaged infrastructure and there are mines everywhere. It's going to take awhile until the city is safe.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,850
34,791
136

Looks increasingly like Ukraine might indeed have taken control of Kinburn, which means they have already significantly compromised Russian defensive posture on the left bank.

Russia may not now have the ability to hold the Ukrainians off from jumping the river which could explain the extensive new defensive works being done at the border to Crimea-Kherson border...

 
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Puffnstuff

Lifer
Mar 9, 2005
16,037
4,800
136
I don't believe there is any mechanism for removing a member of the Security Council. The only way to do it would be for everyone else to quit and then set up a New "Unified Nations" and not invite Russia.
I wonder if they could disband the security council then remake it minus Russia. There would be plenty of smaller 3rd world countries who would continue clinging to them just for the support they receive from them.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,019
38,496
136
Seems Ukraine has received the dozen 120mm M113 based mortar carriers from Lithuania. While not new or particularly fancy they are very effective combo firing a round that is in ample supply.


Simple is good, even if I'm not a fan of aluminum armor. Good luck crew. I'm still hoping the Finns or Swedes will someday send a flavor of AMOS to help. Double barrel MRSI, mmm hmmmm

 
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