Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
1,822
4,454
106
Yes, Russia has a long term problem. But as a strategy, an energy price offensive driven by the threat of military interventionism could backfire in a way that could severely damage Russia by turning off the EU countries to reliance on Russian energy, by at least second sourcing their natural gas as they are doing already.
The Australian press today have been reporting about offers of Australian gas to the Europeans. And we have a shit tonne. Maybe not enough ships though.

New York Post is reporting that "Russian diplomats told to leave US as tensions mount over Ukraine".
 

sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
70,128
5,657
126
Russia is at Russia's border? US is on whose border?

Russia has Troops amassed recently on every side of Ukraine. The US does not have any Troops on Russia's border.Pull your head out of your ass.

I wonder if senseamp forgot to update his Password.
 
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senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
Russia has Troops amassed recently on every side of Ukraine. The US does not have any Troops on Russia's border.Pull your head out of your ass.

I wonder if senseamp forgot to update his Password.
It's their country, they can put troops where they want. US has troops in the Baltics, closer to Russia than most of these Russian troops are to Ukraine, which is not even that close. Why would they build troops up in Bryansk half way up the Belarus border to invade Ukraine 300+ miles away? This whole invasion hysteria was silly from the beginning, it's kind of sad that so many gullible people fell for it.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,812
49,498
136
It's their country, they can put troops where they want. US has troops in the Baltics, closer to Russia than most of these Russian troops are to Ukraine, which is not even that close. Why would they build troops up in Bryansk half way up the Belarus border to invade Ukraine 300+ miles away? This whole invasion hysteria was silly from the beginning, it's kind of sad that so many gullible people fell for it.
It’s funny that you think the idea that Putin would invade Ukraine is silly, considering Putin is still engaged in an ongoing invasion of Ukraine that started back in 2014.

As someone else said yeah I kind of wonder if he forgot to update his password, haha. You’re repeating Russian propaganda almost line for line.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,574
7,637
136
If one checks the original Crimea thread, I suspect the same actors to be arguing in favor of Russian propaganda.
Though it may simply be the interest of telling America to !@#$ off just happens to coincide with Putin's gameplan here.
Perhaps the real interest is not for Russia, rather, it may be just to clear America off the world stage.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
It’s funny that you think the idea that Putin would invade Ukraine is silly, considering Putin is still engaged in an ongoing invasion of Ukraine that started back in 2014.
As someone else said yeah I kind of wonder if he forgot to update his password, haha. You’re repeating Russian propaganda almost line for line.
I made my prediction, which is that this war will not happen, and that you are going to rationalize it by saying it's because of western deterrence. If Russia wanted to invade all of Ukraine, it would have done it in 2014, when the country was in total disarray and was easy pickings. The goals were far more limited, take Crimea, because of the Black Sea fleet and create a separatist pocket of instability to deter NATO from coming in, just like they created in Georgia. Both of those had populations that basically considered themselves Russian and who Ukraine either neglected or went out of its way to piss off. Invading hostile rest of the country of 40 million with 130K troops is nonsense and was from the very beginning. Much better equipped US coalition invaded Iraq, country of 25M at the time with 180K troops.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,812
49,498
136
I made my prediction, which is that this war will not happen, and that you are going to rationalize it by saying it's because of western deterrence.
No, I’m not.

If Russia wanted to invade all of Ukraine, it would have done it in 2014, when the country was in total disarray and was easy pickings. The goals were far more limited, take Crimea, because of the Black Sea fleet and create a separatist pocket of instability to deter NATO from coming in, just like they created in Georgia. Both of those had populations that basically considered themselves Russian and who Ukraine either neglected or went out of its way to piss off. Invading hostile rest of the country of 40 million with 130K troops is nonsense and was from the very beginning.
This is a pretty transparent attempt to blame Ukraine and Georgia for Russian aggression against them. I guess Iraq shouldn’t have tried to piss the US off by your logic?
 
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senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
If one checks the original Crimea thread, I suspect the same actors to be arguing in favor of Russian propaganda.
Though it may simply be the interest of telling America to !@#$ off just happens to coincide with Putin's gameplan here.
Perhaps the real interest is not for Russia, rather, it may be just to clear America off the world stage.
Yes, KGB paid people on AnandTech of all places to engage in completely unrelated discussions while waiting for decades to chime in on a Russian related thread. Believing that and believing the invasion nonsense go well together.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
No, I’m not.


This is a pretty transparent attempt to blame Ukraine and Georgia for Russian aggression against them. I guess Iraq shouldn’t have tried to piss the US off by your logic?
It's not blame, I am explaining what their rationale is. Countries act in their own perceived interests. No need to be emo about it. Russia doesn't want NATO in nearby countries. If there was no NATO expansion, there would be no problem between Russia and those countries. But because there is, they put these poison pills in the form of pre-existing conflicts into the equation. Then NATO has to think hard about expanding into those countries, because it would be obligated to militarily help them resolve those conflicts and risk war with Russia.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,812
49,498
136
It's not blame, I am explaining what their rationale is. Countries act in their own perceived interests. No need to be emo about it.
Lolwut. I guess if we were only the objective, worldly travelers that you are that we would then understand that Russian propaganda is really the right way.

Russia doesn't want NATO in nearby countries. If there was no NATO expansion, there would be no problem between Russia and those countries.
This is almost laughably naive. Russia considers those countries as satellites at best and ones they are entitled to keep in their sphere of influence. These countries want to join NATO BECAUSE of ongoing threats to their security from Russia, not the other way around.

But because there is, they put these poison pills in the form of pre-existing conflicts into the equation. Then NATO has to think hard about expanding into those countries, because it would be obligated to militarily help them resolve those conflicts and risk war with Russia.
Russia did not create a pre-existing conflict in Georgia for this purpose, one had long existed and Russia had long been meddling in Georgia’s internal politics and supporting separatists. You don’t know what you’re talking about and are repeating Russian propaganda.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,812
49,498
136
Guys, despite spending much of their history attempting to conquer or otherwise dominate these areas when the Soviet Union fell Russia had finally gotten it all out of their system and was ready to treat these nations as sovereign and equal counterparts until NATO forced a reluctant Russia’s hand and made them go back to…uhm…what they had always been doing.
 
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senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
Guys, despite spending much of their history attempting to conquer or otherwise dominate these areas when the Soviet Union fell Russia had finally gotten it all out of their system and was ready to treat these nations as sovereign and equal counterparts until NATO forced a reluctant Russia’s hand and made them go back to…uhm…what they had always been doing.
And, what's your point? Russia didn't have trouble with Ukraine until Ukraine started saying they want to join EU and NATO. It's their front yard, they don't want a foreign military alliance in it, and they are acting to prevent it from happening. Like it or not, that's their foreign policy and they are sticking with it. It doesn't translate that they want to occupy the entirety of those countries, just maintain friendly separatist regions to make it too hot for NATO to handle. There are nuances, not everything has to be black and white and easy for you to understand.
 

Ken g6

Programming Moderator, Elite Member
Moderator
Dec 11, 1999
16,283
3,905
75
And, what's your point? Russia didn't have trouble with Ukraine until Ukraine started saying they want to join EU and NATO. It's their front yard, they don't want a foreign military alliance in it, and they are acting to prevent it from happening. Like it or not, that's their foreign policy and they are sticking with it. It doesn't translate that they want to occupy the entirety of those countries, just maintain friendly separatist regions to make it too hot for NATO to handle. There are nuances, not everything has to be black and white and easy for you to understand.
Russia already has two countries in that military alliance in "their front yard": Estonia and Latvia. They've been well-behaved. Why should Ukraine be any different? (Except for the fact that Russia has repeatedly attacked Ukraine.)
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
Russia already has two countries in that military alliance in "their front yard": Estonia and Latvia. They've been well-behaved. Why should Ukraine be any different? (Except for the fact that Russia has repeatedly attacked Ukraine.)
They had a change of heart on the matter after those countries joined.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,548
13,115
136
Its bullshit. Thats what it is.

Imagine a tomorrow where Putin is out, the mafia state is no more and Russia joins the IC.
In terms of culture and personality and behavior, the Russia people is like a close cousin. Would love to visit a free Russia.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,812
49,498
136
And, what's your point? Russia didn't have trouble with Ukraine until Ukraine started saying they want to join EU and NATO. It's their front yard, they don't want a foreign military alliance in it, and they are acting to prevent it from happening. Like it or not, that's their foreign policy and they are sticking with it. It doesn't translate that they want to occupy the entirety of those countries, just maintain friendly separatist regions to make it too hot for NATO to handle. There are nuances, not everything has to be black and white and easy for you to understand.
Thank you for stating the obvious. Everyone knows what Russia’s view here is - it is just that their view is illegitimate because essentially they are using the response to their past aggression to justify future aggression.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,812
49,498
136
Russia already has two countries in that military alliance in "their front yard": Estonia and Latvia. They've been well-behaved. Why should Ukraine be any different? (Except for the fact that Russia has repeatedly attacked Ukraine.)
Russia: [repeatedly attacks, invades, and dominates its neighbors]

Neighbors: man we would sure like to find a way to stop Russia from attacking us.

Russia: any attempt to protect yourself from future attack by us is an unacceptable provocation that will lead to an attack.
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,276
8,200
136
Russia has Troops amassed recently on every side of Ukraine. The US does not have any Troops on Russia's border.Pull your head out of your ass.

I wonder if senseamp forgot to update his Password.

I hate the fact that I'm full of doubt and uncertainty about this. It makes for a very weak position.

But I can't help but notice that NATO has invaded multiple countries since the end of the Cold War. It can hardly claim to be a purely defensive alliance any more.

I have no affection for Putin, he's a cheap gangster. But I have no interest in dying for Ukraine, and if the US were concerned about the rights of small nations they wouldn't have spent most of the last century invading so many of them and imposing dictators on them. Your track record gives you zero credibility. How is Russia's attitude to eastern europe any different from the US attitude to Latin America?

And Putin is not an immortal, nor is he an expression of some fundamental Russian nature, he's just the result of a particular history and set of circumstances. I'd rather we just tried to out-last him with as little violence as possible.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,812
49,498
136
I hate the fact that I'm full of doubt and uncertainty about this. It makes for a very weak position.

But I can't help but notice that NATO has invaded multiple countries since the end of the Cold War. It can hardly claim to be a purely defensive alliance any more.

I have no affection for Putin, he's a cheap gangster. But I have no interest in dying for Ukraine, and if the US were concerned about the rights of small nations they wouldn't have spent most of the last century invading so many of them and imposing dictators on them. Your track record gives you zero credibility. How is Russia's attitude to eastern europe any different from the US attitude to Latin America?

And Putin is not an immortal, nor is he an expression of some fundamental Russian nature, he's just the result of a particular history and set of circumstances. I'd rather we just tried to out-last him with as little violence as possible.
This is whataboutism.
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,276
8,200
136
Russia: [repeatedly attacks, invades, and dominates its neighbors]

Neighbors: man we would sure like to find a way to stop Russia from attacking us.

Russia: any attempt to protect yourself from future attack by us is an unacceptable provocation that will lead to an attack.


And the US has never attacked or invaded or dominated any of its neighbours? Really?
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,276
8,200
136
This is whataboutism.

I hate that word. It's a magic word invented to be able to evade evidence of hypocricy or lack of credibility. It doesn't actually mean anything.

It was in fact specifically invented to magically erase all the crimes of US foreign policy.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,432
7,355
136
And, what's your point? Russia didn't have trouble with Ukraine until Ukraine started saying they want to join EU and NATO. It's their front yard, they don't want a foreign military alliance in it, and they are acting to prevent it from happening. Like it or not, that's their foreign policy and they are sticking with it. It doesn't translate that they want to occupy the entirety of those countries, just maintain friendly separatist regions to make it too hot for NATO to handle. There are nuances, not everything has to be black and white and easy for you to understand.
So imperialism is fine when it's a neighboring country? If the target country tries to escape economic imperialism by forming bonds with other countries, in your view, it's okay for the imperialist country to step in and stop that with force.

Russia is the equivalent of a school yard bully telling his headlocked victim to stop hitting himself.
 
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