Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,682
7,181
136
Havent' watched it myself but I've seen comments that he's most liking standing in a grave and said that in defiance as he was going to be shot. Still a war crime but a premeditated one not off the cuff.


Makes me wonder just how often these barbaric methods are used to keep order in their ranks. Like how is perpetrating war crimes like that going to improve morale....or is it that threatening their troops with being executed is actually the prime motivator for them to rather die from Ukrainian bullets than from their own cadre. Either way, a lose-lose for the 'scripts being thrown in the meatgrinder. Truly sucks to be them and their families and loved ones.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,590
7,651
136
Orcs filming themselves committing war crimes.

That one was disturbing.
But we have to remember just how many people Russia has forced into that end. Both Russian and Ukrainian.
We have to remember those who did not get such a quick or clean death.

For in remembering the HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS Russia has killed this past year, we must resolve to doing everything we can to stop Russia. And we must condemn those who enable Russia.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,084
38,616
136
JDAM-ER operational in Ukraine (in limited quantities for now).


That's big.

We just need to change "limited" to "large," let pilots be the limiting factor for sorties.

Russians have been watching JDAM hand out dirt naps for a long time. Having to face the upgraded version in addition to all the other Western hammers assembled against them, haha. I feel like we're about to see alcohol related deaths among artillery and tank crew spike. Guys will start leaving command posts for a smoke, just not come back.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
10,444
7,061
136
Why the LOL? He makes a perfectly good point that a conflict with China in the Pacific would use a lot of different hardware than the current conflict in Ukraine.

LOL @ us wiping the floor with the Russkies with our military junk and the Ukrainians saving us money by taking it all rather than us paying for it to be disposed off properly!
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,823
49,521
136
Why the LOL? He makes a perfectly good point that a conflict with China in the Pacific would use a lot of different hardware than the current conflict in Ukraine.
Yes, he's right about that. Also, assuming the conflict with China in the Pacific is over Taiwan we will have their army and navy to help us, and they are pretty capable. Japan is currently undergoing a massive rearmament effort so in a few years that will probably be a help as well. It's hard for me to see the US getting in a full on shooting war with China over much less than Taiwan and that probably means China attempting a contested amphibious invasion and that will be very difficult.

My main concern is that we will find our carriers to be very vulnerable to submarine attack, although thankfully China has per wiki 9 such subs while we have over 50 fast attack and almost 20 ballistic missile subs, and I suspect the quality of our equipment and more importantly, training, is superior.
 
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Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
46,278
9,361
146
It's hard for me to see the US getting in a full on shooting war with China over much less than Taiwan and that probably means China attempting a contested amphibious invasion and that will be very difficult.
I don't foresee China physically invading Taiwan with troops at all. They may rain missles down, and they also may not, not wishing to inherit a destroyed landscape or incur the eternal enmity of the survivors on Taiwan.

What they will do, when they deem the time is right, is a naval blockade, covered by land and air-based missiles. That's when the extreme (imho) vulnerability of our carriers will come into play.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,823
49,521
136
I don't foresee China physically invading Taiwan with troops at all. They may rain missles down, and they also may not, not wishing to inherit a destroyed landscape or incur the eternal enmity of the survivors on Taiwan.

What they will do, when they deem the time is right, is a naval blockade, covered by land and air-based missiles. That's when the extreme (imho) vulnerability of our carriers will come into play.
They could, but this would likely land them with a political problem as the US Navy would probably begin escort operations of cargo ships and then China has to decide if it wants to start shooting at the US military, something they would probably regret. I think any Chinese strategy here would lean VERY hard on keeping the US from entering the conflict as once that happens China will have lost control of the situation.

US carriers could largely stay out of range of Chinese land based missiles and their air based missiles would probably have a problem with the aircraft carrying them being shot out of the sky. That's why I'm more worried about subs. I do agree though that in any major shooting war we will lose quite a few ships and people will be shocked by the casualties the US Navy suffers. That being said, in a fight against China it is not particularly close. We would never be able to invade and occupy China but we very much can ensure they can't invade or occupy our allies in the region.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
10,444
7,061
136
They could, but this would likely land them with a political problem as the US Navy would probably begin escort operations of cargo ships and then China has to decide if it wants to start shooting at the US military, something they would probably regret. I think any Chinese strategy here would lean VERY hard on keeping the US from entering the conflict as once that happens China will have lost control of the situation.

US carriers could largely stay out of range of Chinese land based missiles and their air based missiles would probably have a problem with the aircraft carrying them being shot out of the sky. That's why I'm more worried about subs. I do agree though that in any major shooting war we will lose quite a few ships and people will be shocked by the casualties the US Navy suffers. That being said, in a fight against China it is not particularly close. We would never be able to invade and occupy China but we very much can ensure they can't invade or occupy our allies in the region.


And that happened in 2006.. so 17 years worth of improvements would have been done since then.

Also the thing that worries me the most is not that amphibious landing is hard.. it's what the size of military age population of China is. They could put them on civilian small boats and just throw them as an auxiliary of the naval/ army forces or if needed just cannon fodder.

I honestly think the best way to defend Taiwan is for Taiwan to get nukes and 100-500 mile range missiles to carry them. There's absolutely no way the Chinese will be able to shoot them all down so we may have the stalemate continue rather than outright war like Ukraine.

That was probably Ukraine's biggest mistake.. give up its nukes for a paper and as time showed.. that paper held no value whatsoever.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,823
49,521
136

And that happened in 2006.. so 17 years worth of improvements would have been done since then.

Also the thing that worries me the most is not that amphibious landing is hard.. it's what the size of military age population of China is. They could put them on civilian small boats and just throw them as an auxiliary of the naval/ army forces or if needed just cannon fodder.

I honestly think the best way to defend Taiwan is for Taiwan to get nukes and 100-500 mile range missiles to carry them. There's absolutely no way the Chinese will be able to shoot them all down so we may have the stalemate continue rather than outright war like Ukraine.

That was probably Ukraine's biggest mistake.. give up its nukes for a paper and as time showed.. that paper held no value whatsoever.
That's actually exactly the story I was thinking of when I thought of the sub threat, although a few things pop out to me there:

1) Given my experience on the ship I would not be surprised if those anti-sub defenses they were using were either being done in a half-assed or quarter-assed way or not at all.

2) While diesels are quieter underwater than nuclear subs they also have sustainability and range issues that could make them sitting ducks for a force with the level of information awareness the US has.

I think subs are a big threat, maybe the biggest threat to our carriers, but I do expect the US Navy to perform much better than that in a real war scenario.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
11,846
8,446
136
That's actually exactly the story I was thinking of when I thought of the sub threat, although a few things pop out to me there:

1) Given my experience on the ship I would not be surprised if those anti-sub defenses they were using were either being done in a half-assed or quarter-assed way or not at all.

2) While diesels are quieter underwater than nuclear subs they also have sustainability and range issues that could make them sitting ducks for a force with the level of information awareness the US has.

I think subs are a big threat, maybe the biggest threat to our carriers, but I do expect the US Navy to perform much better than that in a real war scenario.

Exactly #1. Entirely different defensive/alert posture in that scenario than would be the case if tensions were rising. And yes on #2. Diesels on battery would be super quiet, but they can't exactly operate like that for very long. Given that we're likely not putting the 7th fleet in between China and Taiwan, it'd take some lucky timing/positioning to accomplish the same maneuver during a shooting war.
 
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