Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
46,252
9,319
146

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,569
12,681
146
Ukraine has about 60,000+ troops training outside of Ukraine in NATO countries. Once the ground dries we will be able to see the impact of this freshly trained forces, hopefully with western equipment. The ground should dry in the south sooner than the northern areas of Ukraine. The most obvious move is for Ukraine to advance in the south and cut off Crimea. For this most obvious move the Russians know it to. Last year the Ukraine's indicated a advance towards Kherson and then did a head fake and launched counter attacks in the North. Ukraine is going to need to figure out a way to throw the Russians off as to what will be the main point of advance for them. Ukraine could wait until Russia strikes and then launch a counter attack. However this would force them to wait, which might not be a option for Ukraine. They are going to need to show they can successfully attack and take back large chunks of their country in the spring-summer of 2023. If this doesn't happen and we get into a stalemate, the west will be more likely to push for negotiated settlement. Russia knows this and hopes by throwing soldiers into the breach they can string things along enough for the west to loose interest. The Republicans so far are playing right into the Russian hands.
TBH they may not even need to throw Russia off. This whole thing smells like the Spartans at the hot gates. Overwhelming force completely shamed by a smaller, more effective fighting force, so thoroughly decimated that they basically abandoned the campaign when the cavalry showed up. I expect a short series of gains from combined arms assaults with mostly-modern western weaponry on hard ground, followed by a total rout from currently occupied territories, followed by a further total rout from previously occupied territories.

I hope history books mark Bakhmut as the Thermopylae of this embarrassment, and hopefully the start of the downfall of the Russian empire.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
11,793
8,348
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Depending on how badly Russia collapses, I think that Chinese theory could be severely incorrect. If it gets bad, we're going to spend an inordinate amount of time making sure that 10k warheads don't end up all over the place.
 
Reactions: [DHT]Osiris

trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
14,666
7,162
136
Yep it wants the west to have "war fatigue" and make the west think "Russia alone is the bad guy"

The sooner we give weapons to Ukraine to completely end Russia's ability to make war is the sooner we can focus completely on China!


Putin is trying to play the Vietnam card on the USA, hoping to wear down the resolve of the nation and finally give up its support of Ukraine. The big problem for Putin is that there aren't any US troops being killed over there like it was in Vietnam and as far as I know, that was one of the key factor for pulling out of that war.

The one thing that's of concern to me and assuredly so the Ukrainians is the increasing resistance for providing aid to them coming from Republicans and their sympathy toward Russia as indicated by the conservative propaganda they are conditioned to obey from their "trusted media sources" like FOX.
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,569
12,681
146
Putin is trying to play the Vietnam card on the USA, hoping to wear down the resolve of the nation and finally give up its support of Ukraine. The big problem for Putin is that there aren't any US troops being killed over there like it was in Vietnam and as far as I know, that was one of the key factor for pulling out of that war.

The one thing that's of concern to me and assuredly so the Ukrainians is the increasing resistance for providing aid to them coming from Republicans and their sympathy toward Russia as indicated by the conservative propaganda they are conditioned to obey from their "trusted media sources" like FOX.
'Careful, or I'll make you fire up your extensive military industrial complex and create a jobs program the US hasn't seen in a century'
'lol okay'
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,466
27,737
136
'Careful, or I'll make you fire up your extensive military industrial complex and create a jobs program the US hasn't seen in a century'
'lol okay'
I don’t think it’s going to work that way. Weapons production is ridiculously high skilled now. Even with massive government commitments, the ramp up would be slow.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,822
8,296
136
Russian mobilization never really wound down it just went stealth. They're struggling for meters of ground in a lot of cases with enormous losses in men and equipment that are not sustainable.
Today is 20th anniversary of the beginning of the Iraq war and it's routinely accepted (and never challenged in my experience domestically or abroad) that it was launched in order to eliminate WMD which never existed. The USA lost 4500 combat troops in the war. That appears to be miniscule compared to what Russia has lost already in their invasion of Ukraine.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
37,822
8,296
136
By the way does anybody even remember Putins original claim? Wasnt it that he wanted to wipe out fascism in Ukraine?
Is he still running with that story or does nobody even care any more?
There are some people whose zero credibility is a forgone conclusion.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,560
7,617
136
Russia's tank division has gone all out on Avdiivka and the surrounding countryside in an attempt to dislodge the Ukrainian stronghold and collapse the front line.
Reportedly dozens of tanks destroyed "in each direction", but the Orcs keep swarming in the hope that Ukraine runs out of ammo before Russia runs out of armor and men.

 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,269
5,134
136
I don’t think it’s going to work that way. Weapons production is ridiculously high skilled now. Even with massive government commitments, the ramp up would be slow.

Ukraine needs vast quantities of regular munitions- artillery shells, mortar rounds, bullets, rifles, machine guns. Those don't need highly skilled workers.
 
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A///

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2017
4,352
3,155
136
You think it'd be cheaper to bribe some of his top men with a few million USD to assassinate him at this point. For field you might not even have to kill Russian soldiers at this point. These are kids that don't want to be there. I may be dreaming here but if you could drop a ton of self destructing percussion caps of a larger size that explode as they near the ground just to spook these kids into surrendering it'll be a win win for Ukraine and her allies.

I thought this was an interesting interpretation, that China is worried Russia will collapse and then it will attract more western attention.

I think China ought to worry about collapsing themselves before Russia or any other country. Although I'm not sure what the implications would be if china collapsed today and democratic powers stepped in.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,947
38,326
136
Good to see some Aussie home grown tech in Ukraine;


I hear that IKEA don't want to be left out of the fun. IKEA ÄBRÅMS M9Ö FLATPACK coming soon....


My first thoughts were 'Must be some great price/performance ratios there' followed immediately by 'So what if it rains?'

From the article: “The sturdy cardboard was soaked in wax to prevent the fuselage from collapsing and drones from falling further in wet weather conditions.”

Something that makes it water proof but also provides a little extra rigidity. Outstanding! Good on ya Oz
 

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
3,932
5,812
136
They're cheaper too so we could possibly send more for the same dollar figure. Curious exactly which model will be provided, maybe M1A1SA with an APU minus the DU armor.

From what I’ve read the M1A1 was extremely effective against Soviet armor in the desert. Hopefully that translates to the Donbas as well.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,711
34,590
136
From what I’ve read the M1A1 was extremely effective against Soviet armor in the desert. Hopefully that translates to the Donbas as well.

Going to do just fine.

Apparently Ukranian troops really want higher caliber autocannons. They are getting a lot of BMGs but they just lack the punch and range of 25/30mm class chain guns. New IFVs will help but these could be integrated on their MRAPs in higher numbers.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,466
27,737
136
Ukraine needs vast quantities of regular munitions- artillery shells, mortar rounds, bullets, rifles, machine guns. Those don't need highly skilled workers.
Modern artillery shells are as sophisticated as torpedoes, if not more.
 

bshole

Diamond Member
Mar 12, 2013
8,315
1,215
126
Today is 20th anniversary of the beginning of the Iraq war and it's routinely accepted (and never challenged in my experience domestically or abroad) that it was launched in order to eliminate WMD which never existed. The USA lost 4500 combat troops in the war. That appears to be miniscule compared to what Russia has lost already in their invasion of Ukraine.

Fighting a 3rd world country is a little bit different than fighting a European country armed to the teeth with American weapons. The death count for the Ukranian conflict could be 7.88 billion if Putin decides he has nothing to lose. I am not sure painting the country with the largest nuclear arsenal in the world into a corner is superior to a negotiated peace treaty that allows him to save face.

It is also notable to see countries like Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, Iran and China all being neutral (at best) on this conflict. Saudi Arabia has signaled an interest in moving away from the petrol dollar,. If that occurs, it could signal the creation of BRIC coalition in opposition to American power. That would pretty much signal an end to America's ability to project power.

 
Reactions: Zor Prime
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