Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,624
49,185
136
If he's going to use a show of force, it's going to be one that absolutely positively shuts down the enemy resolve. He'll nuke Kyiv, not some backwoods ammo depot.
I strongly disagree - a nuclear attack on a major population center would demand a response, he would be going for something that does NOT demand a response but would shut down any further escalation by his enemies.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,624
49,185
136
Also NATO membership may be less valuable due to likely high level of security support going forward from the west (weapon systems, training, intel), the overperformance of Ukrainian defense relative to Russian expectations, and the fact that Putin has lost an asston of stuff in the conflict and would not be in a position to menace the country in the near term.
This is a good point - does Ukraine even need to join NATO, assuming it emerges from this at least mostly intact? (a big assumption)

Considering the hornet's nest Putin seems to have stuck his dick into if they don't end up winning big here I don't think the Russians would be eager to try again any time soon.
 
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[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,538
12,659
146
I strongly disagree - a nuclear attack on a major population center would demand a response, he would be going for something that does NOT demand a response but would shut down any further escalation by his enemies.
He's a narcissist, he cannot imagine a situation he could actually lose. Not being able to take Kyiv conventionally means escalating.

Do you really think Vladimir fucking Putin is just gonna say 'aw, shucks, we didn't get it this go-round, maybe next time'?

EDIT: My point.
 

Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,372
7,106
136
I don’t know, I think Trump thinking China is the biggest threat is true, although I think Biden thinks the same thing.

The problem here is you aren’t taking Trump’s stupidity and mental illness into account. To me it’s perfectly likely that he thought China was the biggest threat but his narcissism wouldn’t allow him to adopt Obama’s (good) solution to the problem and his stupidity caused him to enter a misguided and ineffective trade war.
This is correct. Trump could not overcome his own spite of Obama such that he would rather tear every one of Obama's accomplishments down than to acknowledge he was continuing them but bask in the success of their implementation. E.g. TPP, Iran nuclear deal, Paris Agreement, US government's pandemic playbook, etc.
 
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HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
36,253
28,107
136
This is correct. Trump could not overcome his own spite of Obama such that he would rather tear every one of Obama's accomplishments down than to acknowledge he was continuing them but bask in the success of their implementation. E.g. TPP, Iran nuclear deal, Paris Agreement, US government's pandemic playbook, etc.
Add to that attempting to tear apart NATO, pissing off all our allies.

It's close to amazing Biden was able to piece that all together against Putin
 

Mai72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2012
11,578
1,741
126
I have an awful feeling that we are going to be pulled into this as well. We just banned Russian oil, and the kicker? We are supplying Jets to Ukraine. How can that not be an act of war on Russia? And, if this means WW3 than Biden needs to be honest with the American public. This is going to hurt most Americans also. Gas is projected to hit $7 a gallon by May. Groceries are going to double. Most Americans were living paycheck to paycheck before the war. And now? The dollar is going to devalue. Record unemployment. We are easily headed towards a recession. Maybe even a global depression. Its going to get very bad.

For once, I agree with Tucker. WW3 is on the horizon. Fasten your seltbelt boys and girls. Its going to be an awfully bumpy ride.

 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
11,768
8,317
136
I have an awful feeling that we are going to be pulled into this as well. We just banned Russian oil, and the kicker? We are supplying Jets to Ukraine. How can that not be an act of war on Russia? And, if this means WW3 than Biden needs to be honest with the American public. This is going to hurt most Americans also. Gas is projected to hit $7 a gallon by May. Groceries are going to double. Most Americans were living paycheck to paycheck before the war. And now? The dollar is going to devalue. Record unemployment. We are easily headed towards a recession. Maybe even a global depression. Its going to get very bad.

For once, I agree with Tucker. WW3 is on the horizon. Fasten your seltbelt boys and girls. Its going to be an awfully bumpy ride.


We're not sending jets to Ukraine.

The rest of this is ... eh ...
 

HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
36,253
28,107
136
I have an awful feeling that we are going to be pulled into this as well. We just banned Russian oil, and the kicker? We are supplying Jets to Ukraine. How can that not be an act of war on Russia? And, if this means WW3 than Biden needs to be honest with the American public. This is going to hurt most Americans also. Gas is projected to hit $7 a gallon by May. Groceries are going to double. Most Americans were living paycheck to paycheck before the war. And now? The dollar is going to devalue. Record unemployment. We are easily headed towards a recession. Maybe even a global depression. Its going to get very bad.

For once, I agree with Tucker. WW3 is on the horizon. Fasten your seltbelt boys and girls. Its going to be an awfully bumpy ride.

Biden has already told the public about the oil ban and the increased costs.

We are not supplying jets to Ukraine, Poland is.

Maybe you should choose someone else to hold up as a source of credible information. We already have an enemy who's an expert at propaganda so much the people are brainwashed. Not unlike the Republican base by Carlson
 

KMFJD

Lifer
Aug 11, 2005
29,640
43,811
136
Biden has already told the public about the oil ban and the increased costs.

We are not supplying jets to Ukraine, Poland is.

Maybe you should choose someone else to hold up as a source of credible information. We already have an enemy who's an expert at propaganda so much the people are brainwashed. Not unlike the Republican base by Carlson
Poland is not sending them jets
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,447
27,703
136
That if Putin's in power or not...

Maybe they could break down the bombs and produce fuel for energy producing reactors... uh, in a way the material couldn't be repurposed for bombs. I'm no expert, although I was a physics major at one time. Maybe ask Jimmy Carter, the navy trained him in nuclear engineering.

Edit: Of course, if Putin's not in power the path to the recovery of Russian image and in the world's eyes and it's economy would be opened.
One can downblend highly enriched uranium to produce fuel grade uranium. To do so requires the highly enriched uranium to be fed back through an enrichment cascade as the isotope mixing has to occur at the molecular level. The U.S. purchased a great deal of highly enriched Russian uranium back in the 90s and did just that. Since that time, the U.S. closed its two largest enrichment plants so I don't think we have the capacity to downblend uranium in a timely fashion. AFAIK, the new centrifuge plant isn't on line yet. When/if it comes on line, we might have capacity to undertake the project though we will have nowhere near the enrichment capacity we built for the cold war.
 

Bitek

Lifer
Aug 2, 2001
10,650
5,224
136
I feel that Putin is waiting for NATO to make the first move, giving him the chance to use one of his favorite SARMATs. All these Russian casualties, maybe it's just a ploy. Sacrificing his pawns trying to lure NATO into a trap. An attack on Russia by NATO would be all that's needed for the entire crazy Russian population to launch a full scale offensive, much like what Ukranians are currently doing.

Yeah, I think it's in our advantage politically to be slow to build up/react on our end and not seen to be the aggressor.

Global opinion and support for sanctions, anti-Russian sentiment is more critical at this point rather to increase military readiness for a counteroffensive.

We can quickly bring overwhelming force to bear if we want to, as the fecklessness of the Russian offensive lays this bare.

The only credible threat they do pose is murder-suicide by a nuclear exchange.

We will absolutely win a proxy war of attrition in Ukraine over the long term. Unfortunately this is bloody for the Ukrainians, but so are the alternatives. Protracted bloodletting of the Russian economy, military and support for Putin is the least worst option.
 
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KMFJD

Lifer
Aug 11, 2005
29,640
43,811
136


and from the article you linked -

"As far as sending planes, I can only repeat that no decisions have been taken on the subject," said government spokesman Piotr Mueller.

On Sunday, the chancellery of the Polish prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, dismissed reports that it would transfer the jets. "Poland won't send its fighter jets to #Ukraine as well as allow to use its airports," the chancellery's official account tweeted. "We significantly help in many other areas."

now this might change in the coming days, but currently it doesn't appear so....
 
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uclaLabrat

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2007
5,576
2,907
136
One can downblend highly enriched uranium to produce fuel grade uranium. To do so requires the highly enriched uranium to be fed back through an enrichment cascade as the isotope mixing has to occur at the molecular level. The U.S. purchased a great deal of highly enriched Russian uranium back in the 90s and did just that. Since that time, the U.S. closed its two largest enrichment plants so I don't think we have the capacity to downblend uranium in a timely fashion. AFAIK, the new centrifuge plant isn't on line yet. When/if it comes on line, we might have capacity to undertake the project though we will have nowhere near the enrichment capacity we built for the cold war.
Why you need a centrifuge to blend the two together? You just need tanks to mix them in. You only need a centrifuge to separate them.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,102
136
Japan declares southern Kurils is their sovereign territory.


Not sure how much Russia would care or care as I don't know the significance of these islands, but this must some kind of escalation of some sort?

Those islands are poorly developed. There are some natives living there, and some Russians. They have been controlled alternately by Russia and Japan since the 19th century. They have been under Russian administration since the end of WWII. They've had ongoing talks about the disposition of the southernmost islands in the group as recently as a few years back.

I don't think there are any known resources there. The economy is...fishing.

I think Japan is taking this opportunity to assert its sovereignty claim over these islands because Russia is isolated and has little support in the international community right now.
 

Bitek

Lifer
Aug 2, 2001
10,650
5,224
136
I think we could go into Ukraine and wholesale slaughter Russians until the cows come home and Putin won't do shit in regard to nukes.

Step an inch inside Russia and all bets are off.

Possibly, perhaps probably, but the problem I see is that it likely results with Putin remaining in power, and validating Russian fears of NATO aggression.

He's able to further reduce Russia to an destitute, authoritarian state, and they further delve into criminality to fund the State (eg cyber attacks, fraud, black markets, etc.)

We need a solution where Putin and the kleptocrats are overthrown internally and a new government can take over.
 
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