Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,185
3,609
126
What's next? Putin orders the populous to collect all of the coins in their couches?

Russians liquidating crypto in the UAE to seek safe havens (cnbc.com)
Well, Russia can always sell its gold. That is, until this passes:
 

Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,078
8,103
136
And so it starts. Putin is going to need a lot of heads on a platter to isolate himself from blame; mainly for internal reasons. That said, I'm sure the general public will be mostly happy at a 'corrupt' government official getting a wack in the head. Shockingly, no bullet to the back of the head yet, Putin must be softening up a bit.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
35,561
29,221
136
Bit of a dig at the former President and I have seen this many times happen at various places I have worked at.
When you hire someone because they look the right part this always happens. Dude was likely completely unqualified to be making the important decisions and now he looks like a fool.
Pretty sure the FSB has been leaking info to NATO/US/Ukraine. I read that is how they were able to anticipate and intercept the 3 teams sent in to assassinate Zelenskyy. This is probably Putin reacting to that possibility.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,643
34,465
136
Pretty sure the FSB has been leaking info to NATO/US/Ukraine. I read that is how they were able to anticipate and intercept the 3 teams sent in to assassinate Zelenskyy. This is probably Putin reacting to that possibility.

Or so the Ukrainians might have wanted him to think...

Russian communication security practices are maybe not the best.
 
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thilanliyan

Lifer
Jun 21, 2005
11,905
2,122
126
So how does this end?

Ukraine isn’t giving shit to Russia in terms of concessions so does Russia just pull and say, my bad?

If that happens does the rest of the world then go back to normal and all or most sanctions get removed? That doesn’t seem like a good deal except for Russia.

I only see this ending in one way and that’s with Putin out of power, either because he steps down or because he is removed from within Russia itself. Until that happens, no sanctions should be removed.
Exactly...can't go back to the status quo with Putin still in power. The only meaningful change will come with him out.
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,260
8,192
136
So how does this end?

Ukraine isn’t giving shit to Russia in terms of concessions so does Russia just pull and say, my bad?

If that happens does the rest of the world then go back to normal and all or most sanctions get removed? That doesn’t seem like a good deal except for Russia.

I only see this ending in one way and that’s with Putin out of power, either because he steps down or because he is removed from within Russia itself. Until that happens, no sanctions should be removed.


I can't imagine how this ends. No positive outcome seems plausible, but there has to be something?

I don't know if sanctions could create enough pressure to remove Putin. The people he really depends on, the small group of those immediately around him, everyone says are not the folk who will be hurt by sanctions, because they are all hard-cases, motivated by nationalism rather than a desire for a comfortable lifestyle.

The sanctions will clobber all the outer elites, the jet-setting oligarchs (and I'm more than happy to see them all be badly hit and lose their huge London houses and their yachts and private school places for their children) but apparently those guys don't have much political power in Russia (ironically, they probably have more political influence in the West).

And Russian public opinion seems to be mostly pro-war. I suppose because of a mix of nationalism and propaganda and restricted access to information.

I can't visualise a non-ghastly way out of this. It would take a long time, and a lot of suffering on both sides in the conflict, for the Russian public to become sufficiently angry about the war to stand up to Putin's state apparatus. And that probably won't be a pretty sight if it happens. Seems more plausible for him to be removed in a "palace coup", but I don't know what would be required to persuade his inner circle to turn against him like that.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,496
13,078
136
Or so the Ukrainians might have wanted him to think...

Russian communication security practices are maybe not the best.

*intercepts transmission*
- OUR SPY IN FSB INFORMS US THAT xyz -

Yep, that'll drive him nuts.
 
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sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,493
3,159
136
So how does this end?

I only see this ending in one way and that’s with Putin out of power, either because he steps down or because he is removed from within Russia itself. Until that happens, no sanctions should be removed.

Putin is not going to quit or be ran out of power. Putin envisions a Russia much like the Russia before the break-up. A Russia when Russia was the largest terrritory in the world. Putin wants his territory back.
Putin doesn't care if the Ukraine people willingly come along with the land because Putin would be just fine gassing them or using chemical weapons against the people of Ukraine, especially if those Ukrainian people are going to be a thorn in Putin's side down the road.

Putin does not want continued resistance once Putin takes Ukraine and the land becomes once again part of Russia. So if gassing the people is the only assurance, then Putin will indeed gas the people.
Putin is an old school KGB guy, he loves gas, poison, and toucher.

I expect this to be all over in a few weeks after Kiev falls. Once Kiev falls, all of the western journalist will be forcibly removed from Ukraine and all we will hear there after will be rumors.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,623
49,185
136
Putin is not going to quit or be ran out of power. Putin envisions a Russia much like the Russia before the break-up. A Russia when Russia was the largest terrritory in the world. Putin wants his territory back.
Putin doesn't care if the Ukraine people willingly come along with the land because Putin would be just fine gassing them or using chemical weapons against the people of Ukraine, especially if those Ukrainian people are going to be a thorn in Putin's side.

Putin does not want continued resistance once Putin takes Ukraine and the land becomes once again part of Russia. So if gassing the people is the only assurance, then Putin will indeed gas the people.
Putin is an old school KGB guy, he loves gas, poison, and toucher.

I expect this to be all over in a few weeks after Kiev falls. Once Kiev falls, all of the western journalist will be forcibly removed from Ukraine and all we will hear there after will be rumors.
You're going to have to explain to me how Putin plans on doing this with about 1/3rd or 1/4th of the number of troops an occupation of that sort would require.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,185
3,609
126
If that happens does the rest of the world then go back to normal and all or most sanctions get removed? That doesn’t seem like a good deal except for Russia.

I only see this ending in one way and that’s with Putin out of power, either because he steps down or because he is removed from within Russia itself. Until that happens, no sanctions should be removed.
The international court for war crimes is ramping up. Expect the first charges to start coming in the May/June timeframe. But, Russia doesn't recognize these as war crimes. I would expect this is where the negotiations start: turn over the convicted for sanctions relief. How many people for how much relief is what the negotiations will determine.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
35,561
29,221
136
The international court for war crimes is ramping up. Expect the first charges to start coming in the May/June timeframe. But, Russia doesn't recognize these as war crimes. I would expect this is where the negotiations start: turn over the convicted for sanctions relief. How many people for how much relief is what the negotiations will determine.
Speaking of war crimes:

 

Uhtrinity

Platinum Member
Dec 21, 2003
2,251
197
106
You're going to have to explain to me how Putin plans on doing this with about 1/3rd or 1/4th of the number of troops an occupation of that sort would require.

And with a crippled economy. They aren't going to miraculously pull out all the resources they need. I think Putin is done, he just doesn't know it yet. Just hoping he doesn't do much more damage going out the door.
 
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