Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,403
4,966
136
If so not easily it but it is kind of besides the point since they can already strike Russian cities if they wanted to. There isn't any military need for them to waste limited advanced weapons on civilians and risk their arms supply to boot.

If they got ATACMS they'd clearly only use it in occupied territory against high value targets.
Unlike Russia I'm pretty sure, or at least hope, that Ukraine know they would quickly loose Western support if they targeted civilian targets.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,867
34,814
136
Unlike Russia I'm pretty sure, or at least hope, that Ukraine know they would quickly loose Western support if they targeted civilian targets.

As I said they already have the means but haven't done it for this reason, that it is a pointless waste of resources, and they don't want to conduct the war like the Russians do. Europe sees the barbarians at the gate and it is in Ukraine's interest to maintain that (accurate) perception.
 
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biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,403
4,966
136
As I said they already have the means but haven't done it for this reason, that it is a pointless waste of resources, and they don't want to conduct the war like the Russians do. Europe sees the barbarians at the gate and it is in Ukraine's interest to maintain that (accurate) perception.
Also, we don't really know how the Russian population see the war, but if they start targeting Russian civilians, then Putin might get even more support and conscripts for the war.
 

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,704
5,433
136
Has the momentum of the war swung back to the Russian side?
Yes.

Seems like they are slowly gaining ground over the Ukrainians and taking over the eastern regions.
Yes. Key word slowly.

Ukraine seem to be losing many soldiers and cannot hold the Russians back.
No.

Russia is putting everything it has to retain what slow grinding momentum it has. If Ukraine could not hold it back, it would already be in Kiev.

Ukraine is fighting in the optimal manner for its overall strategic position in the war.

Every day Ukraine sacrifices its land to retain soldiers.
Every day Russia sacrifices soldiers to gain land and break resistance.

Ukraine appears to feel it will need soldiers later more then it needs land now.
Russia appears to keep Ukraine off balance, hoping to eventually knock Ukraine out and into surrender.

wild cards:
NATO weapons, Ukraine mobilization, Russian military districts, the famine, Russian sanctions, etc.

Russian moral is rock bottom. Russia has no senior officers left, they are all dead - at least from the Western District command.
This is not true.

Firstly, if Russian moral was rock bottom, it would not be able to advance at all.

Secondly, we see Russian senior officers dying every day. Clearly, Russia has more senior officers.


All this from Ukraine's tactics of flexible defense. Push when they can hurt the Russians badly. Otherwise pull back slowly and wear them down.
Yes.

More and more NATO weapons are flooding the Ukrainian battle space, and they are innovative in using cheap Chinese Alibaba drones to bypass Russian air defense to attack targets at will far behind enemy lines.
A few hundred NATO cannons does not mean Ukraine has gained an advantage against a few thousand Russian cannons.


So Russia has no momentum. They have very little left of whatever they had in getting what they got in Donbas. They have so little operational forces left that they are stripping training personnel and equipment from Russia and sending it to the front lines. Which means the next lot of Russian soldiers will be poorly trained, if at all, before going to the front lines.
But Russia does have momentum, we see them taking a little nibble every day.

That might just be propaganda about stripping training personnel. Russia has five military districts, so far only the western one has engaged in Ukraine. Russia should have plenty of depth to draw from, unless of course said depth does not exist.


Its a stalemate, but leaning towards Ukraine.
Optimistic, but plausible. I certainly hope so.


For Russia to gain the momentum they either have to drag Belarus into the war
Seems unlikely. Belarus government has avoided putting its own people into Ukraine, and pushing the matter is a bad roll of the dice for Russia.

Right now Russia can use Belarus bases, but we already saw Belarus push back against Russia using its people in Ukraine once. Russia pushes hard, and Belarus is just as likely to revolt against Russia.


or mobilise Russia for war
This does nothing for Russia, which is why we are not seeing it.

Every soldier needs to be fed, clothed, armed, supplied, and trained. With Russia barely able to keep its momentum going, it seems unlikely Russia has the resources to spare for spending months training fresh soldiers.
 
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Atari2600

Golden Member
Nov 22, 2016
1,409
1,655
136
So... if economics force Western countries to do something more drastic than current, do they:

(i) Tell Russia they have 3 days to get their troops out of Ukraine, or have them be destroyed in place by airstrikes.
(ii) (Privately) tell Ukraine to accept a settlement as they will stop providing arms in X days.
(iii) Something else?


I believe (ii) is unpalatable. In terms of (i), Putin is already saying to the people of Russia that the war special military operation is Russia vs. "The West" - so really, what is there to lose? He won't go nuclear over attacks that aren't on Russian soil.
 

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,704
5,433
136
So... if economics force Western countries to do something more drastic than current, do they:
(i) Tell Russia they have 3 days to get their troops out of Ukraine, or have them be destroyed in place by airstrikes.

Active war makes the economic situation worse for the west, not better.

(ii) (Privately) tell Ukraine to accept a settlement as they will stop providing arms in X days.
Ukraine will never agree.

(iii) Something else?
Yes, nothing at all.

The economics of the situation favor the western countries.

In an unusual emergency meeting with 100,000 government officials, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang last week called China’s economic situation “grim” and said officials at all levels should prioritize growth. “There is no time to lose,” he noted. China’s government released the 33-point stimulus plan after the meeting.
“Whenever you have a 33-point plan, it means you don’t have a plan,” says Derek Scissors, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “They are just throwing a bunch of stuff against the wall and hoping something works.”
India is in much the same position.

The situation favors the status que:
Weapons supplies to Ukraine to burn Russia out in Ukraine.
Letting the majority of the economic fallout from said choice fall on China, India, Indonesia, and Africa.


The west will ensure Ukraine wins, as it is obvious now Ukraine is a great democracy in the making. The next South Korea. The west moves to position itself to receive the bounty of said harvest in terms of trade and economic investment post war. The rich get richer.


Yes, there will be economic fallout in the west, but it will be a minor cost compared to what is being forged in Ukraine. Most of the economic cost, and all of the starvation will fall elsewhere. The west can simply do nothing and rightly blame it all on Russia. If China/India complain, the west can point out they encouraged Russia, they inflicted this suffering on themselves.
 
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Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,704
5,433
136
Hot take is whatever the US will do if Russia has bases in Mexico and Canada. what do you think we will do, if that happens
Why would Mexico or Canada ever want Russian bases on its soil?


Were you aware there were Chinese military units in Canada until quite recently? That they had a joint command specializing in Artic Warfare?
 

cirrrocco

Golden Member
Sep 7, 2004
1,952
78
91
some basic facts about the war with the morons going off from twitter feed.
1. Russia can perpetually make weapons , how long will the US support Ukraine and more importantly how long will Ukrainians fight the Russians
2. Winter is coming and once euro wimps feel the wrath of the populace burning shit down [unlike the pussies here who wont riot even in the face of the biggest FU from the govt] , the war is mostly won.
3. Russia is a net commodity exporter that the world needs.
4. The jackoff's here on this thread are rah rah'ing small tactical victories while the Russians with a 3:1 disadvantage is taking over the industrialized part of Ukraine slowly. Once Russians take over Kharkiv, Odessa, Mikolaeyv and Dneipetrovisk, Ukr has nothing else except farmlands. All the entrenchments built over the past 8 years will be behind the Russians. where will the Ukr now fight?
5. The chickenhawks here who have been clamoring for war since Iraq are still here clamorning for more war.
 
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cirrrocco

Golden Member
Sep 7, 2004
1,952
78
91
Why would Mexico or Canada ever want Russian bases on its soil?


Were you aware there was a Chinese military units in Canada until quite recently? That they had a joint command?

Did you forget cuba or your brain just kinda froze? so wait the US can convince the world that Nuke war is gonna ensue when Russians put weapons in Cuba, but sure Russians cannot do the same when NATO has been training multiple BTGs each year since 2015. I mean how is it that we can have one rule but rest of the world cannot have the same rule.
Is this the much vaunted 'rules based' order?
 
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Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,704
5,433
136
Did you forget cuba or your brain just kinda froze?
So, how was Cuba resolved?
A diplomatic deal with the USSR.

How is that even remotely the same? Why would you equate a diplomatic solution with war?

I mean how is it that we can have one rule but rest of the world cannot have the same rule.
Is this the much vaunted 'rules based' order?
I do not recall the US invading Cuba to end the missile crisis?

Your claim that:
diplomacy = war is a false equivalence fallacy.


Your posts are all based on the delusional idea that might makes right. That since Russia has a military, it has the "right" to inflict suffering on its neighbors. That argument is nonsense.
 
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cirrrocco

Golden Member
Sep 7, 2004
1,952
78
91
So, how was Cuba resolved?
A diplomatic deal with the USSR.

How is that even remotely the same? Why would you equate a diplomatic solution with war?


I do not recall the US invading Cuba to end the missile crisis?

Your claim that:
diplomacy = war is a false equivalence fallacy.


I think you need to go back and re-read and understand some basic history regarding the cuban missile crisis. The Russians were wise to disengage. The world was a couple times seconds away from Nuclear holocaust.
Russia very clearly in 2004 ,2008 and 2014 and in Dec 2021 let the US know [told NATO but they are just USpups], that expansion into Ukraine is a red line

Now lets do a side by side comparison
1962 US told USSR that sending missiles to Cuba will lead to war [even thgh it was a reaction to US putting missies in Turkey]
2021 - Russia told US that expanding NATO into Ukr is a no go

1962 - USSR sent cargo ships with Missiles
2021 - US said Ukr has every right to join NATO and infact Z went one step ahead and said Ukr will reconstitute nuke weapons

1962 - US said that if Russian ships cross a certain distance towards Cuba , That ship will be sunk. USSR responded that any ships shooting at cargo ship will be shot at as well.
2021 - Russia said that continued provocation about NATO expansion will lead to war. Ursula and Blankin response was that Russia has not say in NATO expansion. Russia said they will take non diplomatic means

1962 - A few miles before the cutoff point, the USSR cargo ship turned around and headed back to Europe. The negotiation was that Russia wont base ship in Cuba and the US [quietly] will remove the msisiles from Turkey
2021 - In this case, even after repeated Russian calls for diplomacy, the admin did not respond. a honest review of news then without blinkers will give you some clarity. [So who did not want diplomacy in 2021, when the US SD said there is nothing to negotiate]

As you can see , there is a diversion is the path in the above step. in 1962, negotiarions were done honestly but now US SD and NATO did not want to negotiate.
 
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cirrrocco

Golden Member
Sep 7, 2004
1,952
78
91
So, how was Cuba resolved?
A diplomatic deal with the USSR.

How is that even remotely the same? Why would you equate a diplomatic solution with war?


I do not recall the US invading Cuba to end the missile crisis?

Your claim that:
diplomacy = war is a false equivalence fallacy.


Your posts are all based on the delusional idea that might makes right. That since Russia has a military, it has the "right" to inflict suffering on its neighbors. That argument is nonsense.

Are you talking about the US or Russia here. I am not very clear.hahaha. Sure we can inflict pain on anyone in the planet but Russia cannot inflict pain in its own neighborhood to protect its own Russian speaking populace.

How about this. Look up the OSCE publication on ceasefire violations and count how many civilian deaths occurred between 2015-2022 due to Ukr civilians.

There is not one western reporter reporting from Ukr frontlines. everything is fed via Kiev
 

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,704
5,433
136
I think you need to go back and re-read and understand some basic history regarding the cuban missile crisis. The Russians were wise to disengage. The world was a couple times seconds away from Nuclear holocaust.
Russia very clearly in 2004 ,2008 and 2014 and in Dec 2021 let the US know [told NATO but they are just USpups], that expansion into Ukraine is a red line

Now lets do a side by side comparison
1962 US told USSR that sending missiles to Cuba will lead to war [even thgh it was a reaction to US putting missies in Turkey]
2021 - Russia told US that expanding NATO into Ukr is a no go

1962 - USSR sent cargo ships with Missiles
2021 - US said Ukr has every right to join NATO and infact Z went one step ahead and said Ukr will reconstitute nuke weapons

1962 - US said that if Russian ships cross a certain distance towards Cuba , That ship will be sunk. USSR responded that any ships shooting at cargo ship will be shot at as well.
2021 - Russia said that continued provocation about NATO expansion will lead to war. Ursula and Blankin response was that Russia has not say in NATO expansion. Russia said they will take non diplomatic means

1962 - A few miles before the cutoff point, the USSR cargo ship turned around and headed back to Europe. The negotiation was that Russia wont base ship in Cuba and the US [quietly] will remove the msisiles from Turkey
2021 - In this case, even after repeated Russian calls for diplomacy, the admin did not respond. a honest review of news then without blinkers will give you some clarity. [So who did not want diplomacy in 2021, when the US SD said there is nothing to negotiate]

As you can see , there is a diversion is the path in the above step. in 1962, negotiarions were done honestly but now US SD and NATO did not want to negotiate.

So how does that give Russia the right to inflict suffering on Ukraine?

Are you seriously claiming that Ukrainian self determination is an existential threat Russia?
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
146
Technically, yes, in software. All the targeting data is likely coalesced in a database as well - but if we have any brains, and we do, it’ll be well protectEd. It just isn’t worth screwing with software in that way for combat equipment - it would be a potential disaster if a bug was introduced.

From my perspective, we should just let it be - at some point, sadly, UKR may need to target civilian areas in Russia if the Russians try to hide their most valuable assets behind human shields. Russia shouldn’t endanger their own people, but Putin doesn’t care - they’d just see it as an opportunity to accuse UKR of war crimes.

Honestly, it appears Russia will be making another thrust from Belarus. It should be open season on targets just over the boarder - don’t let the bastards get a foot hold. This isn’t a damn game. All IMHO - I don’t sit behind the resolute desk in the Oval Office.

Putin murdered tons of Russians just to gain attention in his country and catapult himself to power. There is no doubt that murdering tens of thousands of Russians on home soil and blaming Ukraine was already planned and one of the first parts of his strategy for this war.
 
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Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,704
5,433
136
Are you talking about the US or Russia here. I am not very clear.hahaha. Sure we can inflict pain on anyone in the planet but Russia cannot inflict pain in its own neighborhood to protect its own Russian speaking populace.

How about this. Look up the OSCE publication on ceasefire violations and count how many civilian deaths occurred between 2015-2022 due to Ukr civilians.

There is not one western reporter reporting from Ukr frontlines. everything is fed via Kiev
Straight to conspiracy theories?

Russia is responsible for all civilian death in Ukraine as a result of its violent war against Ukraine.


If Russia cared about the lives of Russian speaking minorities, why did it unleash a reign of terror on them?
http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/UA/HRMMUReport15May2014.pdf
https://www.hrw.org/news/2014/05/23/ukraine-anti-kiev-forces-running-amok
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28619599
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
146
some basic facts about the war with the morons going off from twitter feed.
1. Russia can perpetually make weapons , how long will the US support Ukraine and more importantly how long will Ukrainians fight the Russians
2. Winter is coming and once euro wimps feel the wrath of the populace burning shit down [unlike the pussies here who wont riot even in the face of the biggest FU from the govt] , the war is mostly won.
3. Russia is a net commodity exporter that the world needs.
4. The jackoff's here on this thread are rah rah'ing small tactical victories while the Russians with a 3:1 disadvantage is taking over the industrialized part of Ukraine slowly. Once Russians take over Kharkiv, Odessa, Mikolaeyv and Dneipetrovisk, Ukr has nothing else except farmlands. All the entrenchments built over the past 8 years will be behind the Russians. where will the Ukr now fight?
5. The chickenhawks here who have been clamoring for war since Iraq are still here clamorning for more war.

summary:
 

Zor Prime

Golden Member
Nov 7, 1999
1,023
588
136
Looks like Russia is firing missiles out of Belarus and Putin is going to give nukes to Belarus.

edit: I presume this is a conditional requirement asked of Belarus to engage Ukraine. Belarus can feel a lot better about it when they know the risk of getting their own territory messed with is dramatically reduced.
 
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