Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
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Steltek

Diamond Member
Mar 29, 2001
3,053
759
136
If things keep going like this, maybe we will soon be waking up to news about Putin "accidentally" falling out of his hospital room window.

After all, those hospital windows seem to be major safety hazards over there (especially for Russians with an overinflated personal sense of being untouchable).....
 

Bitek

Lifer
Aug 2, 2001
10,650
5,224
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This is an excellent thread summarising the flaws and faults in the Russian military pertaining to the welfare and well being of the common boots-on-the-ground folk. Napoleon would be shaking his head - although he did fail logistics on his Russian campaign if I recall correctly.

Also came across this excellent point;

I almost feel bad for some of the desperate and duped conscripts. The Russian leadership is truly corrupt and incompetent...

... But they make "manly" commercials, so they must be good :/ No wonder Trumpy loves the Ruskies.

Consequently, this is exactly what stupid, corrupt MAGAts would do to the US if given the chance.
 

Dave_5k

Golden Member
May 23, 2017
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If things keep going like this, maybe we will soon be waking up to news about Putin "accidentally" falling out of his hospital room window.

After all, those hospital windows seem to be major safety hazards over there (especially for Russians with an overinflated personal sense of being untouchable).....
As a random aside, the windows really are a safety hazard in many of the hotels and high rises in Moscow - unlike most buildings in US, all floors of most buildings have tall windows that opened fully without restrictions, and it wasn't particularly uncommon to see Russian sitting on edge of open window smoking... wouldn't take a lot of "help" in many cases.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,519
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There are enough ports and beaches on the southern side to resupply indefinitely by sea, largely out of range of Ukrainian weapons. Russian AD, drones, and rocket forces could concentrate on a relatively small area of Ukraine to defend against. It's doable though at a cost.

If the Kremlin continues the war as is however this might not be the case as their resources dwindle.
Isnt there a vast amount of methods smuggling mines into the bay?
 
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deustroop

Golden Member
Dec 12, 2010
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That's not what I meant at all. Ukraine doesn't have the man power to invade Russia. By another push, I meant pushing south-east along the Russian border. The way I see it ending in favor of Ukraine is Ukraine taking all their land back and Russia realizing a frozen war isn't worth the sanctions.
You sure about that ?
No sanctions will put war criminals under the noose, only a military collapse.
Think about the incompetence and ineffectiveness of Russian forces. Moscow is a paper tiger, easy pickens for those who dare The US has to go with UKR on this or be seen as abandoning UKR and being left out of post ops altogether. The US has been pussyfooting all along.
The UKR advance on Moscow will force the US to continue their support all the way in.
These fascist vermin must be reformed and this may be the only chance to reform Russia top to bottom-democracy everywhere,-like Germany, like Japan post WWII
Of course the RU military may give up sooner than later saving lives golor as events show there is no samovar at the end of the tunnel
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,519
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Beau has a sobering perspective.
I am very tempted to say "lets just track that material down after the fact", let it fail, dissolve.
But, I am not the post war geopol wiz here, so

 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,519
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You sure about that ?
No sanctions will put war criminals under the noose, only a military collapse.
Think about the incompetence and ineffectiveness of Russian forces. Moscow is a paper tiger, easy pickens for those who dare The US has to go with UKR on this or be seen as abandoning UKR and being left out of post ops altogether. The US has been pussyfooting all along.
The UKR advance on Moscow will force the US to continue their support all the way in.
These fascist vermin must be reformed and this may be the only chance to reform Russia top to bottom-democracy everywhere,-like Germany, like Japan post WWII
Of course the RU military may give up sooner than later saving lives golor as events show there is no samovar at the end of the tunnel

Just get the fcking nukes out before everything falls.
 
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Dave_5k

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May 23, 2017
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1) Pretty sure Moscow MKAD ring road is normal right now, no closures indicated - welcome to rush hour normal traffic in Moscow. Also, short-term closures for high ranking official motorcades aren't uncommon in any case.

2) On warfront, dug in Russian pocket at Lyman is still fighting fiercely, but looks like it will be enveloped - appears Russians aren't even trying to hold the Oskil river, retreating entirely out of Kherson region other than a couple pockets of resistance or trapped forces.

 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,766
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2) On warfront, dug in Russian pocket at Lyman is still fighting fiercely, but looks like it will be enveloped - appears Russians aren't even trying to hold the Oskil river, retreating entirely out of Kherson region other than a couple pockets of resistance or trapped forces.


AFAIK there really isn't anywhere good for the Russians to stake out a defensive line in Luhansk as they retreat east. They might have little choice but to fall back to Feb 23 positions which are fortified.

Without knowing the full extent of Ukrainian resources it's hard to gauge when they might force the Russians into this position. Presumably they're going to have to rest some forces, bring up TDF guys to mop up the territory they're retaking, rotate fresh troops in, etc. The only thing really on the Russian's side is that Ukraine has to digest its gains a bit but they also don't have to maintain an occupation force like the Russians did. Civilian Ukrainian authorities can handle a lot of stuff.

I think preserving it's limited manpower and equipment are probably a higher priority now for the Russian military than keeping a lot of that land. They're going to need something left to reconstitute.
 

Dave_5k

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May 23, 2017
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Summary of the visually confirmed Russian losses this past week...which always undercounts losses. 8 battalions worth of Russian armor/artillery captured or destroyed, roughly half captured (albeit most in need of repair).
Plus additional substantial engineering/trucks/air defense/C2 and aircraft losses. Not seen any real estimates yet of personnel casualties/captures, which will also be ugly for Russia, although lots of rumors.
 

Dave_5k

Golden Member
May 23, 2017
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Not falling for this again. They actually going to attack Kherson, right?
Ukrainians still are counter-attacking at Kherson, but it is much better defended / dug in & Russia diverted majority of their professional forces reserves here ~ making advances tough and costly, as opposed to breaking the thinly held conscript lines around Kharkiv . Mostly have cut off new Russian supplies to Kherson with bridges all down, destroyed a lot of the ammo reserves, may be running the Russians out of fuel/ammo.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,766
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Ukrainians still are counter-attacking at Kherson, but it is much better defended / dug in & Russia diverted majority of their professional forces reserves here ~ making advances tough and costly, as opposed to breaking the thinly held conscript lines around Kharkiv . Mostly have cut off new Russian supplies to Kherson with bridges all down, destroyed a lot of the ammo reserves, may be running the Russians out of fuel/ammo.

Yeah the Ukrainian attack on Russian lines at Kherson has settled into an attritional fight. With the Russians stuck on the wrong side of a river with two busted bridges I would really not prefer to be them even if they have defensible positions. Likely just a matter of time.
 

Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
46,262
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Yeah the Ukrainian attack on Russian lines at Kherson has settled into an attritional fight. With the Russians stuck on the wrong side of a river with two busted bridges I would really not prefer to be them even if they have defensible positions. Likely just a matter of time.
The karma train for Mariupol is coming for them.
 
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