Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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feralkid

Lifer
Jan 28, 2002
16,577
4,659
136
Seems to me that desperately trying to drag EU and NATO nations into this war in response to direct attacks against them isn't the best strategy here, but it's a decision you can make, I guess.


Is he just tossing shit against the wall?

 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,570
7,631
136
Seems to me that desperately trying to drag EU and NATO nations into this war in response to direct attacks against them isn't the best strategy here, but it's a decision you can make, I guess.

To Russia.... some revenge might just help bring Europe to its knees if energy and heating is lost during winter. Perhaps it'll spark unrest Moscow can take advantage of. Lord knows, they have enough investment meddling in western politics.
 

Zor Prime

Golden Member
Nov 7, 1999
1,023
588
136
To Russia.... some revenge might just help bring Europe to its knees if energy and heating is lost during winter. Perhaps it'll spark unrest Moscow can take advantage of. Lord knows, they have enough investment meddling in western politics.
Bingo.

Coupled with the potential of the Republicans getting the house and senate back...

Things are about to become very interesting very soon.
 

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,696
5,431
136
To Russia.... some revenge might just help bring Europe to its knees if energy and heating is lost during winter. Perhaps it'll spark unrest Moscow can take advantage of. Lord knows, they have enough investment meddling in western politics.
Maybe, but it would basically go like this:

Step 1: Russia attacks something NATO

Step 2: victim nation formally triggers article 5

Step 3: LOOTING!: Syrian oil field? Uncle Sams now! East coast of Russia with only one rail link going to it? -burp- Random oil tankers on the ocean? -cha ching- Russian assets in western banks -donation!- Kaliningrad? -gulp- Russia islands near Japan? -there are no russian islands near japan-

Step 4: after devouring the tasty but helpless parts of the Russian empire, a cease fire.

Step 5: russia refuses the cease fire, maybe do something to assist the nation who originally filed the article 5 claim


Russia is not going to cross that line to trigger war with NATO. Just to much loot to be had with minimal effort.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,570
7,631
136
Russia is not going to cross that line to trigger war with NATO. Just to much loot to be had with minimal effort.

Plausible deniability if things just go boom.

Second, they wouldn't be planning for it if they were not at least considering it. This option is certainly on the table.

Third, Europe is already in turmoil over the war. Maybe Russia thinks a little push is all it would take.

Fourth, Russia is emboldened by the supporters it does have.

Protesters march in Paris as fuel shortages add to anger over inflation
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,775
49,434
136
Plausible deniability if things just go boom.

Second, they wouldn't be planning for it if they were not at least considering it. This option is certainly on the table.

Third, Europe is already in turmoil over the war. Maybe Russia thinks a little push is all it would take.

Fourth, Russia is emboldened by the supporters it does have.

Protesters march in Paris as fuel shortages add to anger over inflation
I don’t think Russia is emboldened at all, they are trapped and are panicking.

Putin clearly thought this would be a situation where they marched in and toppled Ukraine’s government. That turned out to be wrong and now they are having their army and country destroyed and see no way out. That’s why Russia keeps escalating, Putin knows he will be overthrown if he loses.

Turns out Putin is much stupider than people thought. For some inexplicable reason he thought it was a good idea to start a war where if any of his assumptions were wrong he would be overthrown or killed. Dumb.
 

Zor Prime

Golden Member
Nov 7, 1999
1,023
588
136
Re: Russians scoping out infrastructure.

Guys and gals, it's not like Russia is going to openly attack NATO anything. I know it's fashionable to call Putin stupid but it's very unrealistic to think Russia is going to openly put a stick in the eye of NATO.

No, it wouldn't be direct. I'm surprised anyone would think they would do it direct and in view. It'd be sabotage and denial all the way and they'd demand proof and there wouldn't be any proof and if there's no proof then they didn't do it even if they did.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,775
49,434
136
Re: Russians scoping out infrastructure.

Guys and gals, it's not like Russia is going to openly attack NATO anything. I know it's fashionable to call Putin stupid but it's very unrealistic to think Russia is going to openly put a stick in the eye of NATO.

No, it wouldn't be direct. I'm surprised anyone would think they would do it direct and in view. It'd be sabotage and denial all the way and they'd demand proof and there wouldn't be any proof and if there's no proof then they didn't do it even if they did.
How is it ‘fashionable?’ Isn’t it just pointing out that he made a colossally stupid move here?
 

Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
46,266
9,338
146
Re: Russians scoping out infrastructure.
No, it wouldn't be direct. I'm surprised anyone would think they would do it direct and in view. It'd be sabotage and denial all the way and they'd demand proof and there wouldn't be any proof and if there's no proof then they didn't do it even if they did.
Exactly.
 
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rommelrommel

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2002
4,389
3,120
146
Re: Russians scoping out infrastructure.

Guys and gals, it's not like Russia is going to openly attack NATO anything. I know it's fashionable to call Putin stupid but it's very unrealistic to think Russia is going to openly put a stick in the eye of NATO.

No, it wouldn't be direct. I'm surprised anyone would think they would do it direct and in view. It'd be sabotage and denial all the way and they'd demand proof and there wouldn't be any proof and if there's no proof then they didn't do it even if they did.

Russian denials and demands aren't an obstacle to article 5 being invoked if the NATO countries want to invoke it.
 
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Zor Prime

Golden Member
Nov 7, 1999
1,023
588
136
How is it ‘fashionable?’ Isn’t it just pointing out that he made a colossally stupid move here?
You're absolutely correct and there's no doubt about it.

But to repeatedly downplay your opposition leaves you open for surprise and I just don't think that's a good idea.

Every good leader or coach preaches don't sleep on your opponent. I don't mean literally, it means don't underestimate.

Yeah he made one of the largest military blunders established by mankind, I think everyone knows that well.

So long as the USA is involved Russia has no chance of a military victory. However they could have some things go their way diplomatically and getting people pissed off at their own leaders in their own lands would go a long way to achieving that.
 
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kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
28,019
38,496
136
I am continually impressed by the Ukrainian regard for animals during this conflict. The adoptions, the food stations, going into a fucking active warzone to round up petrified dogs and zoo animals. Got a lot of respect for those people



Look at that focus. Boo's about to go for the eyes.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,831
34,770
136
Re: Russians scoping out infrastructure.

Guys and gals, it's not like Russia is going to openly attack NATO anything. I know it's fashionable to call Putin stupid but it's very unrealistic to think Russia is going to openly put a stick in the eye of NATO.

No, it wouldn't be direct. I'm surprised anyone would think they would do it direct and in view. It'd be sabotage and denial all the way and they'd demand proof and there wouldn't be any proof and if there's no proof then they didn't do it even if they did.

CIA would be passing out cigarettes around sensitive and under guarded assets in Russia.
 

Racan

Golden Member
Sep 22, 2012
1,124
2,019
136
Interesting post from Ukrainian journalist Yurii Butusov


The battle for supremacy in the air over Ukraine
An invisible but critically important battle for Ukraine is currently being waged in the air around the clock. After the appointment of the former chief of staff of the Air and Space Forces Surovikin as the commander of the United Group of Russian Forces in Ukraine, the Russian aggressors concentrated all their resources to defeat the Ukrainian air defense and aviation.
From the first day of the war, the Russians have been trying to solve this task, but now new factors of the air operation of the Russian Armed Forces are obvious:
1. The use of Iranian drones "Shakhed-136" for strikes on various cities of Ukraine, with the aim of dispersing air defense assets and constantly detecting their work. "Shahedy" are not used en masse, during one strike, their goal is the constant loading of Ukrainian air defense in various areas, reconnaissance. Therefore, strikes are carried out in small groups, every day, without breaks. This also speaks of an established supply channel from Iran.
2. Terrorist attacks on cities, residential buildings, facilities of life support and critical infrastructure, industrial enterprises in order to undermine the will of the civilian population to resist, and to force the Ukrainian command to distract and disperse the means of air defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, to pull them away from the front to the rear areas. Putin used Hitler's World War II tactics against Ukraine, when the Nazis destroyed cities and struck civilian targets during the Battle of Britain to strain air defense forces.
3. Tactics. The Russian command is trying to force the Ukrainian air defense to act constantly, to show itself, to turn on radars, to disperse forces, to maneuver in order to facilitate the work of radio-electronic, space, intelligence.
4. Concentration of groups of reconnaissance and attack drones to detect and destroy in the tactical zone military air defense assets in certain directions. In some directions, the enemy began to search at a depth of 30-40 km with groups of unmanned aerial vehicles, including Lancet-3 kamikaze attack drones, in order to catch our air defense systems either on the move or in positions that have not yet had time to change.
5. MiG-31 fighters with long-range missiles taking turns in the air near the areas of action of the Ukrainian aviation.
Conclusions:
1. Currently, the supply of anti-aircraft weapons is the main priority, which is possible only at the expense of supplies from our NATO allies. Significant deliveries of air defense systems to Ukraine can be made from the reserves of the US Armed Forces, which have a significant number of Patriot and Avenger air defense systems.
2. For combat in the air and the use of modern air-to-air missiles, Ukraine needs F-16 aircraft. To combat drones, the Allies could provide light rotorcraft combat aircraft such as the Embraer SuperTukano, which can be optimized to intercept targets such as the Shahed-136 and be used to strike ground targets. Such planes were supplied to Afghanistan.
3. The battle for control of the air is a key prerequisite for the strategic offensive operation of the Russian Armed Forces, which, according to all indications, is being prepared by the Russian command to stop the Ukrainian offensive and seize the strategic initiative in the war.
4. Cases of damage to our air defense and air defense forces by the Russians require conclusions. We can strengthen air defense with means of camouflage, simulated models of weapons, transport, engineering support of bases in order to strengthen the concealment of actions, maneuverability, survivability.
5. Russia is actually conducting a general mobilization of the population and the economy, attracting allies with the aim of destroying Ukraine at any cost. The war will be long, so we need long-term defense planning, we need a strategy that allows us to prioritize and act in advance.
6. The most difficult thing is that we need to accept that air defense will not be able to cover all civilian objects from the actions of Russian terrorists. These constant blows will have to be learned to live with, just as the residents of London and many other places in Britain who suffered from Hitler's bombings during the Second World War did. We will stand and win as the democratic states did in that terrible time.
 
Nov 17, 2019
11,285
6,708
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What is Vlad learning and how will he adapt?

The initial sprint was in his favor. The longer slog is working out for UKR. Who will win the marathon?
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,806
29,557
146
Re: Russians scoping out infrastructure.

Guys and gals, it's not like Russia is going to openly attack NATO anything. I know it's fashionable to call Putin stupid but it's very unrealistic to think Russia is going to openly put a stick in the eye of NATO.

No, it wouldn't be direct. I'm surprised anyone would think they would do it direct and in view. It'd be sabotage and denial all the way and they'd demand proof and there wouldn't be any proof and if there's no proof then they didn't do it even if they did.

I don't understand how this "doing it super secret" would be any different than their "super secret" novichok assassinations around the world and totally accidental falling-down-of-stairs and the defenestrations that are all the rage these days.

So yeah, it won't be "in the open," but it will be Russia doing their Russia things.
 

Michael

Elite member
Nov 19, 1999
5,435
234
106

This is my longer term worry. Ukraine has been able to stop the Russian advances and in many cases reverse some of the early gains (Russian still holds significant gains along the Black Sea coast.

But as long as Russian supply continues and the war remains in Ukraine, they can continue to use attrition and total war tactics (go after civilians) to slowly wear down Ukraine. Iran supplying drones is an example of a recent bad development.

I don’t think that Russian resources are infinite and the patience of the Russian people towards the obviously bad decisions made so far by Putin and his military is strained, but he just has to hold on long enough.
 
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Michael

Elite member
Nov 19, 1999
5,435
234
106
However, Ukraine is claiming that if shot down over 80% of the drones launched against their capitol, so that is some sign of hope.


Ukraine shot down 85-86% of Russian drones involved in latest attacks, air force says
Ukraine has destroyed 37 Russian drones since Sunday evening, around 85-86% of the number involved in attacks, Ukraine’s air force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said on Monday.
“That’s quite a good result for the work of our air defences and that number will rise in the future,” he told a news briefing, adding that all the drones had flown into Ukraine from the south.
— Reuters”
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,535
13,109
136
I think the idea with these drones is to tie up UKR air force so as to make room for other tactics... Think UKR need some new/more hardware to deal with these drones.
Also, bitch slap Iran around some for this move.
 
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