Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[senseamp]

Combat Footage 🇺🇦

Mobilized Russian tank driver , the 1st day in the war after playing World Of Tanks

t.me

Lots of fun was had...

 

[Jaskalas]

Russia, in a surprise to no one, publicly threatens Moldova.
Anyone reading between the lines can see the threat for what it is, if Russia is not defeated in Ukraine, they vow to take Moldova next.

Russian lawmakers warn Moldova’s Nato aspirations may lead to its destruction

 

[senseamp]

Russia, in a surprise to no one, publicly threatens Moldova.
Anyone reading between the lines can see the threat for what it is, if Russia is not defeated in Ukraine, they vow to take Moldova next.

Russian lawmakers warn Moldova’s Nato aspirations may lead to its destruction

Moldova's ambassador has responded:

 

[Jaskalas]

Putin is a master at Russian jobs and infrastructure programs. Just look at all that fresh... craftsmanship below.

A Russian graveyard reveals Wagner’s prisoner army

 

[Pens1566]

What was linked was generally the way it played out in our (the US) training…an example was REFORGER, Return of Forces to Germany. Was an annual exercise whereby units from the US rapid deployed to Germany to reinforce/replace the cannon fodder that were/are the forces already on the ground in Germany.

When the Russians came down the Fulda Gap, propositioned forces were there to slow the invasion long enough to allow reinforcements(replacements) to get in theater from US stateside posts.

So the mobile forces were the first in line, like 101st and 82nd. Both airborne units and are equipped with lighter, easier to move quickly equipment.

And they go get chewed up and try to blunt Russian advance while the heavy stuff gets mobilized.

I got to “participate” in a REFORGER, 1976. I was with the 20 yh Combat Engineer Ann, attached to the 101st Airborne. Was such fun. Spent a month in the rear of an open jeep, running around parts of the Black Forest and elsewhere. Froze my natural ass off…it was late Sept-October and we froze.

Then again, if I hadn’t gone, I’d have missed a lot. Won’t ever forget but don’t want to do it ever again.

Just rambling aimlessly now. I should learn not to post sometimes. 🤪

The plan always was turn the fulda gap into a smoldering parking lot and force the far superior #s of the Soviets into a space where #s wouldn't really matter. Get chewed up in there and it's a really bloody nose at the start of WW3.

 

[NTMBK]

Hm I wonder who could be in the market for deep modernization of T-72s including the option of fitting them with L7 105mm guns?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618521640815722496

I know that a 105mm gun would give them access to NATO ammunition supplies, but I thought that gun couldn't reliably penetrate Russian armour?

 

[Indus]

Interesting viewpoint on twitter.. if the US gives fighters to Ukraine what's best? F15E, F16, Typhoon, Raphale

I think the F15E would be best as a strike fighter instead of F16's since they're not going to be dog fighting, but what do you all think?

 

[NTMBK]

Interesting viewpoint on twitter.. if the US gives fighters to Ukraine what's best? F15E, F16, Typhoon, Raphale

I think the F15E would be best as a strike fighter instead of F16's since they're not going to be dog fighting, but what do you all think?

I saw an argument that the F18 might be a good option. Less intensive to run than the F15, but twin engine so more survivable for the pilot than the F16, and better for launching from makeshift runways. (More likely to have crud kick up and ruin an engine on takeoff from a random highway.)

I think that someone was also retiring their entire F18 fleet... It might have been Australia?

 

[rommelrommel]

I saw an argument that the F18 might be a good option. Less intensive to run than the F15, but twin engine so more survivable for the pilot than the F16, and better for launching from makeshift runways. (More likely to have crud kick up and ruin an engine on takeoff from a random highway.)

I think that someone was also retiring their entire F18 fleet... It might have been Australia?

Canada bought the assorted detritus that Australia had left to keep our decaying fleet in the air long enough for our procurement process to decide for about the third time to buy F35. This time it seems like we really are, but were not going to have many for quite some time.

 

[deustroop]

I saw an argument that the F18 might be a good option. Less intensive to run than the F15, but twin engine so more survivable for the pilot than the F16, and better for launching from makeshift runways. (More likely to have crud kick up and ruin an engine on takeoff from a random highway.)

I think that someone was also retiring their entire F18 fleet... It might have been Australia?

Just answer me this.

Could an F=16/18 , as currently configured and launching a missile from within it's own airspace, take down a russian strategic aircraft in the air like, oh, the TU 95 or 160 ? Which munition would have the best shot and what counter measures would be expected ?

 

[gorobei]

Interesting viewpoint on twitter.. if the US gives fighters to Ukraine what's best? F15E, F16, Typhoon, Raphale

I think the F15E would be best as a strike fighter instead of F16's since they're not going to be dog fighting, but what do you all think?

i posted a while back on this.

the wartechtubers have commented on this.

the big stuff(jets and tanks) are kind of in a long term vs short term quandary.
what Ukraine need right now are jas39 gripens (operation on highways, easy maintenance by conscripts) but the US has several 100's of f-16s available sitting in storage (100% compatibility with US weapons) but they need long finished runways and technical maintainers. same with the abrams but getting them across the ocean and the UKR crews trained means they probably wouldn't get there in time to be useful. that makes the leopards better, but how many does the EU have to spare?
(But yes, the sooner they are 100% nato gear and sead ready, the rus air defense becomes super irrelevant. wild weasels represent!)

good news is the soviet gifts keep on giving. UKR su-24's are being brought back into service. they got ~200 su-24 after the fall of the soviets. [indexed to time]

David Axe also goes into the ru 3rd army corp issues, also the UKR spec op usage of the navy boats/ribs we sent at the start.


[edit]
it seems the Finnish airforce F-18s have been practicing taking off, landing, and re-arming on highways without needing arrestor cables, so we could theoretically give Ukraine some F/A-18 or even the EF-18G.
boeing and their senators have been forcing hornets down the navy's throat these last few years, so there could be a deal to be made.

what UKR needs right now is j39 gripen (field maintainable, refuel/rearm/takeoff/landing from car roadways, massive ecm suite to jam ground radars, nato compatible rails and weapon interface). [millenium7 interviewed a saab engineer on the latest gripen, they are opting for a mega radar jammer approach instead of trying to do stealth]

the US could send f-16 or f-15 but the maintenance is harder and they require long runways. the finland air force operates their f-18s off of roadways, but im not sure if the surplus non-superhornets' (we have sitting around) ecm is sufficient to survive at altitude vs the mig31 and (recently confirmed operating in UKR)su57 long range missiles. waiting for boeing to make newer block superhornets isnt an option.




the airspace in UKR is actively contested, that is why for the last 6 months it has been an artillery war. UKR doesnt have enough sead to protect a strike sortie from all the s300/400 around the frontlines. the ru air force has lookdown shootdown superiority with the su27 family and su57 over UKR mig29s.

it would take a full out USAF involvement operation of f-22s to supress the fighters and wildweasels/growlers to shutdown the iads and gain control of the air to allow 4th gen strike fighters to do their job, which isnt possible given the commitment to not make this a nato war.

 

[Ajay]

Interesting viewpoint on twitter.. if the US gives fighters to Ukraine what's best? F15E, F16, Typhoon, Raphale

I think the F15E would be best as a strike fighter instead of F16's since they're not going to be dog fighting, but what do you all think?

My bet is still on F16s. Great 4th gen multi-role fighter/bomber. We have enormous stocks of them. At some point in the future, it would be good for Ukraine to have a good close in air-combat fighter. That why I'm not a fan of sending A-10s (though, who knows, the USAF is desperate to get them off the books). Great for CAS, terrible otherwise. I don't think we'd send over F15Es, monster bomb truck, but I just don't the need for it for a country the size of Ukraine (GDP wise). If our other NATO allies want to pump in Typhoons or Raphales, fine - but I hope we stick with adding just one new combat aircraft to Ukraine's air force. Easier for logistics, maintenance and training over time, IMHO.

F-18 is a step up in some ways from the F-16, but not so much that I think it matters. Somebody who knows F-18s better can please pipe in here. Anyway, we'll have to see after the next NATO meeting on Ukrainian military aide before more info gets out.

 

[K1052]

I know that a 105mm gun would give them access to NATO ammunition supplies, but I thought that gun couldn't reliably penetrate Russian armour?

If they obtained DU APFSDS they could probably handle everything up to and including T-72B3s frontal armor. T-80 and later likely an issue. Though with vastly better sights, modern FCS, and a fully stabilized gun the odds of the modernized T-72 getting its first round on target would be high which is usually what matters. They're not likely to be alone anyway and the 105mm HESH rounds are a fantastic way to dispose of fortified positions.

 

[Ajay]

i posted a while back on this.


what UKR needs right now is j39 gripen (field maintainable, refuel/rearm/takeoff/landing from car roadways, massive ecm suite to jam ground radars, nato compatible rails and weapon interface). [millenium7 interviewed a saab engineer on the latest gripen, they are opting for a mega radar jammer approach instead of trying to do stealth]

the US could send f-16 or f-15 but the maintenance is harder and they require long runways. the finland air force operates their f-18s off of roadways, but im not sure if the surplus non-superhornets' (we have sitting around) ecm is sufficient to survive at altitude vs the mig31 and (recently confirmed operating in UKR)su57 long range missiles. waiting for boeing to make newer block superhornets isnt an option.




the airspace in UKR is actively contested, that is why for the last 6 months it has been an artillery war. UKR doesnt have enough sead to protect a strike sortie from all the s300/400 around the frontlines. the ru air force has lookdown shootdown superiority with the su27 family and su57 over UKR mig29s.

it would take a full out USAF involvement operation of f-22s to supress the fighters and wildweasels/growlers to shutdown the iads and gain control of the air to allow 4th gen strike fighters to do their job, which isnt possible given the commitment to not make this a nato war.

Thanks. With so much AA in the combat regions from both side - everything is pretty much nape of the earth right now. Otherwise the Russian AF would be hammering UKR targets. But, the UAF is flying and they will need aircraft with a more sustainable weapons supply. They are more willing to take risks than the Russians, as they are defending their own country. AFAICT

 

[Dave_5k]

Just answer me this.

Could an F=16/18 , as currently configured and launching a missile from within it's own airspace, take down a russian strategic aircraft in the air like, oh, the TU 95 or 160 ? Which munition would have the best shot and what counter measures would be expected ?

No chance. Pretty sure best available option is still the venerable AMRAAM (AIM-120), the latest upgrade AIM-120D is reported as having ~160km range.

Russia is generally launching missiles from its strategic bombers from the north-eastern portion of Belarus - probably some 400km from the Ukraine border - with missiles that have far over 1000km range.

Edit: not to say that enterprising Ukrainians might try a long range intercept from over Russian air space (if they were allowed to) - potentially doable, but it would be really tricky, the F-16 would have to be based fairly close to Russian border on standby, fly some 300+ miles into Russia to get in range, fire & run back home.

 

[K1052]

My bet is still on F16s. Great 4th gen multi-role fighter/bomber. We have enormous stocks of them. At some point in the future, it would be good for Ukraine to have a good close in air-combat fighter. That why I'm not a fan of sending A-10s (though, who knows, the USAF is desperate to get them off the books). Great for CAS, terrible otherwise. I don't think we'd send over F15Es, monster bomb truck, but I just don't the need for it for a country the size of Ukraine (GDP wise). If our other NATO allies want to pump in Typhoons or Raphales, fine - but I hope we stick with adding just one new combat aircraft to Ukraine's air force. Easier for logistics, maintenance and training over time, IMHO.

F-18 is a step up in some ways from the F-16, but not so much that I think it matters. Somebody who knows F-18s better can please pipe in here. Anyway, we'll have to see after the next NATO meeting on Ukrainian military aide before more info gets out.

My bet would be F-16s due to the facts that euro nations have them and can support them plus some are replacing with F-35 so there are planes available for donation. The production line is still open and cranking in the US so no worries about airframes.

What's more interesting to me is what items we might give them to hang off the planes than the kind of planes themselves. Ukraine needs standoff range air to ground munitions to start hitting Russian supply lines, depots, command posts beyond GMLRS range to alter the balance of the conflict at this point if we are not going to supply ATACMS. The WH seems to be coming around on this.

 

[Jaskalas]

Turkey.exe has encountered an error. Press Bribe to Continue....

Turkey says it is "meaningless" to restore NATO dialogue with Sweden, Finland

 

[K1052]

Turkey.exe has encountered an error. Press Bribe to Continue....

Turkey says it is "meaningless" to restore NATO dialogue with Sweden, Finland

lol everybody should stop paying attention to this until after the elections in Turkey

 

[pauldun170]

Interesting viewpoint on twitter.. if the US gives fighters to Ukraine what's best? F15E, F16, Typhoon, Raphale

I think the F15E would be best as a strike fighter instead of F16's since they're not going to be dog fighting, but what do you all think?

The F-16's primary mission in the US airforce is as an attack aircraft and as a single engine jet much cheaper to operate than any of those other aircraft.
F-15E is VERY expensive aircraft to just be giving away to people.

 

[K1052]

Related Slovakia wants to give away their 12 Mig-29s and associated missile stock to Ukraine. They are receiving new F-16s and the Mig-29s were maintained by Russian contractors who obviously can't anymore so they're grounded.

 

[pauldun170]

My bet is still on F16s. Great 4th gen multi-role fighter/bomber. We have enormous stocks of them. At some point in the future, it would be good for Ukraine to have a good close in air-combat fighter. That why I'm not a fan of sending A-10s (though, who knows, the USAF is desperate to get them off the books). Great for CAS, terrible otherwise. I don't think we'd send over F15Es, monster bomb truck, but I just don't the need for it for a country the size of Ukraine (GDP wise). If our other NATO allies want to pump in Typhoons or Raphales, fine - but I hope we stick with adding just one new combat aircraft to Ukraine's air force. Easier for logistics, maintenance and training over time, IMHO.

F-18 is a step up in some ways from the F-16, but not so much that I think it matters. Somebody who knows F-18s better can please pipe in here. Anyway, we'll have to see after the next NATO meeting on Ukrainian military aide before more info gets out.

Assuming you mean the old C model Hornets, I'm not sure what airframes are out there are going to be suitable for use in the Ukraine. Super Hornet fleet is already in rough shape and we don't have any to spare.
F-16's appear to be the natural choice.

 

[K1052]

Or um maybe some Mirages too I guess. Ukrainian Air Force mechanics might be about to feel the pain of their armor maintainer brethren.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618748096997109761

 

[Gardener]

Weeee! Lovely scenario. Just remember, "No plan survives contact with the enemy."

For what it's worth, the defensive depth described by the author is as good as it gets.

 

[rommelrommel]

Kind of sick of Ukrainian asks being framed as demands. Them saying they really need things or that they would be super helpful do not make them demands. Like they say, if you don’t ask you don’t get.

 

[Perknose]

For what it's worth, the defensive depth described by the author is as good as it gets.

Agreed, but the cliche still stands.