Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

[Ajay]

Also seems like a great opportunity to hit rail lines/highways into Crimea. Aren't there only a couple anyway? I guess it depends whether the Ukrainians want to preserve them for their own move south, and just use Storm Shadows to soften them up.

Not sure what the US is waiting for regarding ATACMS. There are plenty of juicy targets in occupied Ukraine, and there are exactly zero instances of them using US weapons in attacks on Russian soil.

My understanding is that the tracks from western Russia to Crimea hace been made non operational by the UA and Ukrainian partisans behind enemy lines. That forced the RA to use trucks. It’s also my understanding that a large majority of those trucks have been destroyed, in various ways by both groups. That made the destruction of the Kerch bridge rail line a real punch in the sack for Russia.

They are getting some trucks into the south east of the mainland and (after some repairs) across the Kerch bridge.

So, I really think it time to give the UA ATACAMS. Somebody have Joe's number?

 

[Dave_5k]

My understanding is that the tracks from western Russia to Crimea hace been made non operational by the UA and Ukrainian partisans behind enemy lines. That forced the RA to use trucks. It’s also my understanding that a large majority of those trucks have been destroyed, in various ways by both groups. That made the destruction of the Kerch bridge rail line a real punch in the sack for Russia.

They are getting some trucks into the south east of the mainland and (after some repairs) across the Kerch bridge.

So, I really think it time to give the UA ATACAMS. Somebody have Joe's number?

Way past time to give them ATACMS ~ the latest excuse I read out of the White House is we don't have sufficient stocks to do that, and general statements that Ukraine has everything they need (not!)

Give firm orders for a couple thousand more ATACMS if that's really the problem... and just even 50 or 100 could make a massive difference in this spring offensive, although UK Storm Shadows may now cover a fair portion of that need.

 

[RnR_au]

Sure sounds like things are heating up...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1656764225308483585

..but the Russian government says otherwise...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1656757613546074135

... and they would never lie. Right?

 

[cytg111]

Sure sounds like things are heating up...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1656764225308483585

..but the Russian government says otherwise...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1656757613546074135

... and they would never lie. Right?

Or they dont know. Knowing would indicate having their shit together. One thing Russia has shown us so far is that they dont.

 

[RnR_au]

Or they dont know. Knowing would indicate having their shit together. One thing Russia has shown us so far is that they dont.

You seem to indicate that good brave Russian commanders are lying to the Kremlin. Forsooth! I have a feeling that the additional pressure on Bakhmut from the Ukrainians is a feint.

A good thread on the Storm Shadow;

https://twitter.com/x/status/1656653883387817984

 

[cytg111]

You seem to indicate that good brave Russian commanders are lying to the Kremlin. Forsooth! I have a feeling that the additional pressure on Bakhmut from the Ukrainians is a feint.

A good thread on the Storm Shadow;

https://twitter.com/x/status/1656653883387817984

Hehe… if you knew that bad news would get your head cut off, would you not lie your ass off too? .

 

[Meghan54]

Hehe… if you knew that bad news would get your head cut off, would you not lie your ass off too? .

Honestly, I’d be more afraid of multistory buildings with windows vs decapitation

 

[Jaskalas]

If the UA can take the south West Bank of the Azov sea - kiss the Kerch bridge goodbye.

Technically, the Kerch bridge is within Storm Shadow range from the current LOC. Barely.
These missiles are air to ground. So an attack wave of fighter jets could scoot a little closer and get the job done.

 

[Indus]

Apparently South Africa has been giving arms and ammo to Russia

US ambassador accuses South Africa of providing weapons, ammo to Russia

The U.S. ambassador to South Africa has accused the country of providing weapons and ammunition to Russia. Ambassador Reuben Brigety said the U.S. government was certain that military equipment was loaded onto a Russian cargo ship that docked secretly at a naval base near the city of Cape Town...

apnews.com

Wouldn't surprise me one bit.. rife of corruption everywhere..

 

[K1052]

We can expect a lot of " maskirovka" coming out of Ukraine right now in regards to timing and actual location of the offensive (s) points of attacks.
Ukraine is going to do everything they can to throw the press and the Russian army off for the timing and location of the attacks.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/zelens...gx3z2np5s3i&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Yep if they can force Russian reserves to move around through panic that could help facilitate a breakthrough wherever the real blow is going to land.

 

[K1052]

Way past time to give them ATACMS ~ the latest excuse I read out of the White House is we don't have sufficient stocks to do that, and general statements that Ukraine has everything they need (not!)

Give firm orders for a couple thousand more ATACMS if that's really the problem... and just even 50 or 100 could make a massive difference in this spring offensive, although UK Storm Shadows may now cover a fair portion of that need.

A couple dozen ATACMS or similar units would be enough to smoke all the better AD (S-300, S-400) in Crimea and drop all the bridges. Then send in Storm Shadow/SCALP, GLSDB, and an assload of cheap drones.

 

[Commodus]

Apparently South Africa has been giving arms and ammo to Russia

US ambassador accuses South Africa of providing weapons, ammo to Russia

The U.S. ambassador to South Africa has accused the country of providing weapons and ammunition to Russia. Ambassador Reuben Brigety said the U.S. government was certain that military equipment was loaded onto a Russian cargo ship that docked secretly at a naval base near the city of Cape Town...

apnews.com

Wouldn't surprise me one bit.. rife of corruption everywhere..

Wouldn't be surprising to my South African wife, either. SA under recent governments hasn't been afraid to court China and Russia (while still trying to stay on the good side of the West). The ANC accomplished good things under Mandela and (IIRC) Mbeki, but it really needs to either be shaken up or replaced.

 

[kage69]

Wouldn't be surprising to my South African wife, either. SA under recent governments hasn't been afraid to court China and Russia (while still trying to stay on the good side of the West). The ANC accomplished good things under Mandela and (IIRC) Mbeki, but it really needs to either be shaken up or replaced.

Yeah looks like Ramaphosa went along with Putin's 'we helped you against Western colonizers, where's the reciprocity?' schtick. Very disappointing. We're not in the habit of making accusations like that during a time like this if they aren't backed up with several types of evidence. You let a sanctioned Russian ship come hang out at your naval base and take on cargo you should expect someone to notice. Ambassadors want something concrete if they're the ones stomping in and raising their voices in outrage, in this case I bet he had it.

Russia will still lose, and Ramaphosa's admin will have upped the hate from abroad and at home. Hopefully that shake will happen sooner rather than later. SA has better things to worry about than propping up the dreams of war criminals.

 

[Perknose]

Yeah looks like Ramaphosa went along with Putin's 'we helped you against Western colonizers, where's the reciprocity?' schtick. Very disappointing.

Understood, but remember . . . under that pos Reagan we were firmly on the side of the deeply racist apartheid regime in South Africa. Now THAT was "disappointing."

 

[Jaskalas]

If you want disappointing....

Republicans, via Trump, VOW to leave Ukraine defenseless and pave the way for Russia's genocidal conquest across Europe.
Sorry, no, disappointing is the wrong word. If the US betrays Europe for Russia, that is treason in my book. If Republicans manage to re-elect Trump, they will be no different than Orcs and you already know my feelings there.... Which is going to make living in this country an incredible test of patience.... Yuri got a smoke we can borrow?

 

[Leeea]

Russian lines are starting to come apart, but keep in mind,

until 7 combined arms regiments of western MBT / IFVs commit, this is preliminary actions. Necessary actions to prepare the way for what is to come.

 

[Jaskalas]

Russian lines are starting to come apart, but keep in mind,

until 7 combined arms regiments of western MBT / IFVs hit, this is preliminary actions. Necessary actions to prepare for what is to come. But not 7 regiments hitting the line.

Ukraine is shaping the battlefield with these small assaults. Russia's response will play a role in Ukraine's choice of target(s).
Where ever the main attack lands, we should not underestimate the now established defense networks and 300k+ Russians occupying Ukraine. This is a far larger and more prepared Russian army than Ukraine faced last year. Anywhere you punch deep enough, 10s of thousands of Russians should be waiting to blunt Ukraine's attack.

 

[Leeea]

Ukraine is shaping the battlefield with these small assaults. Russia's response will play a role in Ukraine's choice of target(s).
Where ever the main attack lands, we should not underestimate the now established defense networks and 300k+ Russians occupying Ukraine. This is a far larger and more prepared Russian army than Ukraine faced last year. Anywhere you punch deep enough, 10s of thousands of Russians should be waiting to blunt Ukraine's attack.

The flip side of that is Russia has to feed, water, and supply 300k+ Russian soldiers.


I keep seeing videos popping up of Russian trains spontaneously derailing. Explosive FPV drones flying directly into the cabs of Russian supply trucks. Supply line looks questionable.

 

[uclaLabrat]

Ukraine is shaping the battlefield with these small assaults. Russia's response will play a role in Ukraine's choice of target(s).
Where ever the main attack lands, we should not underestimate the now established defense networks and 300k+ Russians occupying Ukraine. This is a far larger and more prepared Russian army than Ukraine faced last year. Anywhere you punch deep enough, 10s of thousands of Russians should be waiting to blunt Ukraine's attack.

I disagree. Their equipment is 3rd rate, their training worse (in the event it ever happened) and their front line, professional force was spent months ago.
Theyre stuck at the end of worse logistics strings and reserve equipment is rusty and moldy when it exists at all. Im not at all convinced the army they face is in any way superior to the one theyve already thrown back.

Of course i could be wrong but nothing theyve shown has indicated otherwise. Theyre lobbing cruise missiles over the fence and hiding behind trench lines. It will bloody the Ukrainians no doubt, but i doubt the russians are as formidable as they were this time last year.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Russia has already lost 10 square kilometers NW of Bakhmut.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1657009170200010754

 

[K1052]

Ukraine is shaping the battlefield with these small assaults. Russia's response will play a role in Ukraine's choice of target(s).
Where ever the main attack lands, we should not underestimate the now established defense networks and 300k+ Russians occupying Ukraine. This is a far larger and more prepared Russian army than Ukraine faced last year. Anywhere you punch deep enough, 10s of thousands of Russians should be waiting to blunt Ukraine's attack.

I think it questionable that Russia has such reserves at the ready as useful units. Even at their current strength they are way way under the required manpower for all the defenses they've built. The defenses should be taken seriously but looked at realistically.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1657044496549306368

Dates included

 

[cliftonite]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1657044496549306368

Dates included

How far are they from the salt mine now?

 

[fskimospy]

I disagree. Their equipment is 3rd rate, their training worse (in the event it ever happened) and their front line, professional force was spent months ago.
Theyre stuck at the end of worse logistics strings and reserve equipment is rusty and moldy when it exists at all. Im not at all convinced the army they face is in any way superior to the one theyve already thrown back.

Of course i could be wrong but nothing theyve shown has indicated otherwise. Theyre lobbing cruise missiles over the fence and hiding behind trench lines. It will bloody the Ukrainians no doubt, but i doubt the russians are as formidable as they were this time last year.

Yeah I completely agree - the army Ukraine is facing today is a shell of its former self.

 

[K1052]

Looks like Storm Shadow has entered the chat

https://twitter.com/x/status/1657050806426771457