Discussion Ryzen 9 3900X and 3950X supply issues - long term problem?

[Bavor]

Sometimes I wonder how "limited" the stock is on these high end SKU's. Earlier I saw someone link a top CPU sales chart from amazon (can't find the link, amazon.com currently doesn't show this), but is showed the Ryzen 3950 as the top seller. And previously we saw the 3900 selling quite good numbers at mindfactory.de (

https://imgur.com/a/0bHDIoW

), They're weren't selling as many as the other popular models, but I would say it's about 1/3rd the numbers that the 3900x one of the most popular sellers.

So are they as rare as everyone is assuming, or is demand just crazy high for them?

With Amazon, the algorithm for a "top seller" also takes into account the rate of sales. With the entire stock selling out in 2 minutes or less, it became a top seller. You also find cheap garbage knockoff products from China as the Top Seller at certain times due to the same algorithm.

Inventory is low. Here in the U.S., the Microcenter chain of stores received between 1 dozen and 3 dozen per store. Most stores it was less than 2 dozen I'm told. Amazon and Newegg both sold out in under 2 minutes. Amazon received a restocking today and I received their email notification about it. The email notification stated that its extremely limited quantities. Less than 2 minutes after receiving the email, they were sold out.

 

[uzzi38]

Sometimes I wonder how "limited" the stock is on these high end SKU's. Earlier I saw someone link a top CPU sales chart from amazon (can't find the link, amazon.com currently doesn't show this), but is showed the Ryzen 3950 as the top seller. And previously we saw the 3900 selling quite good numbers at mindfactory.de (

https://imgur.com/a/0bHDIoW

), They're weren't selling as many as the other popular models, but I would say it's about 1/3rd the numbers that the 3900x one of the most popular sellers.

So are they as rare as everyone is assuming, or is demand just crazy high for them?

In the case of the 3950X, it's probably both. Demand is really high for a 16 core part, but also supply is quite limited.

In the case of the 3900X at launch, it was the same as the above.

 

[rbk123]

AMD needs to release the 3600 x2

They are too scared to.

 

[fleshconsumed]

But, how much of current AMD higher-core-count demand for AM4 CPUs, is from prior AM4 AMD CPU/APU customers, and how much of it is from Haswell/Skylake Intel 4C/4T or 4C/8T customers, looking to move up in core counts cheaply, and make that platform switch?

IOW, when Zen3 comes out in 2020 (hopefully), how many of their current (2019) customers, will also make that switch? I can't imagine that core counts could go up heavily again, especially on a dual-channel AM4 platform, and going from N7 to N7+ probably won't shrink transistors all that much to add many more cores.

Will Zen3 IPC/clock gains be enough to drive a similar number of upgrade sales in 2020, if core counts don't increase on AM4?

Personally I got 1800x for 8 cores, I upgraded to 2700x because of power numbers and better frequency, and then I upgraded to 3700x/3900x for lower thermals and AVX2 performance.

As to the larger audience, who knows? If Zen3 takes the gaming crown from Intel I can see their sales accelerating even more, at that point name recognition would be the only Intel's selling point.

 

[CHADBOGA]

Personally I got 1800x for 8 cores, I upgraded to 2700x because of power numbers and better frequency, and then I upgraded to 3700x/3900x for lower thermals and AVX2 performance.

As to the larger audience, who knows? If Zen3 takes the gaming crown from Intel I can see their sales accelerating even more, at that point name recognition would be the only Intel's selling point.

What did you do with your 1800x and 2700x CPU's?

 

[Kedas]

I ordered an 3950X but isn't anywhere in stock where I can buy online, also unknown delivery time.
The 3900X is available but I'm going to try the 3950X first and see how that goes.

 

[beginner99]

They've actually stated that there is no supply problem just that they don't have enough chips that can bin for the specs

And hence the problem is unsolvable. If you think your demand for 12 and 16 core are y and x you set the specs accordingly so that you get enough chiplets to bin for these specs. If actual demand is 1.2y and 1.2x, you will always have too little good enough chiplets. it's biting AMD in the back they went to the limits with max boost. just 100mhz lower and they probably would have far less of an issue.

 

[Kedas]

And hence the problem is unsolvable. If you think your demand for 12 and 16 core are y and x you set the specs accordingly so that you get enough chiplets to bin for these specs. If actual demand is 1.2y and 1.2x, you will always have too little good enough chiplets. it's biting AMD in the back they went to the limits with max boost. just 100mhz lower and they probably would have far less of an issue.

The problem is solvable, if they don't have enough binned chiplets for the high end then the price is too low. Make the 3950X 999$ and your problem is solved.

 

[Ajay]

it's biting AMD in the back they went to the limits with max boost. just 100mhz lower and they probably would have far less of an issue.

I didn’t think about that, good point. With the problems Ryzen 3xxxx have had reaching their boost frequencies in the first place - AMD are in a real bind.

 

[Atari2600]

Will TSMC and AMD be doing stepping revisions behind the scenes?

Its not as if they need to find much.

 

[Gideon]

I didn’t think about that, good point. With the problems Ryzen 3xxxx have had reaching their boost frequencies in the first place - AMD are in a real bind.

They really should have brought back XFR as it was originally (100 Mhz not-guaranteed extra boost) and lowered the "official" boost number by 100mhz. If that were the case, 95% of this drama would be resolved by now

 

[uzzi38]

They really should have brought back XFR as it was originally (100 Mhz not-guaranteed extra boost) and 95% of this drama would be resolved by now

XFR is still there. It's why some people report going over boost clock by like 50mhz with Zen 2 for just a brief peak.

 

[Ajay]

Will TSMC and AMD be doing stepping revisions behind the scenes?

Its not as if they need to find much.

I doubt it, not with Zen3 coming out so soon.

 

[fleshconsumed]

What did you do with your 1800x and 2700x CPU's?

I'm just selling them on ebay. Obviously sold 1800x long time ago, will put 2700x on ebay at the end of the week when I come back from vacation.

 

[Kedas]

I doubt it, not with Zen3 coming out so soon.

It's still 3 quarters away so that's not really soon.
But there may only be a (partial) revision of the process if it helps total yield, not for a performance boost because they do not need it to sell it.

 

[Kedas]

I got a "delivery time" update today of my order: 26/12 for the 3950X
4 more weeks

 

[Muadib]

I got a "delivery time" update today of my order: 26/12 for the 3950X
4 more weeks

Are you in the US?

 

[Kedas]

Are you in the US?

Europe

 

[DrMrLordX]

I got a "delivery time" update today of my order: 26/12 for the 3950X
4 more weeks

Let's hope they honor that promise. I am still angry with Amazon for what they did with my C6H pre-order back in 2017.

 

[Markfw]

Let's hope they honor that promise. I am still angry with Amazon for what they did with my C6H pre-order back in 2017.

Amazon does not even have the 3950x listed, preorder or otherwise ! After my dual 7601 EYPC box, I am broke, but when I recover, I want a 3950x for my x570 board that is empty @!

 

[Bavor]

Amazon does not even have the 3950x listed, preorder or otherwise ! After my dual 7601 EYPC box, I am broke, but when I remover, I want a 3950x for my x570 board that is empty @!

Its shown up for me since the 25th.
https://www.amazon.com/AMD-Ryzen-3900X-24-Thread-Processor/dp/B07SXMZLP9/

 

[Ajay]

It's still 3 quarters away so that's not really soon.
But there may only be a (partial) revision of the process if it helps total yield, not for a performance boost because they do not need it to sell it.

Oh yeah, process tweaks for sure. I just don’t think AMD will do another stepping. I’m sure the manufacturing engineers are ramping up on Zen3 chiplets already and don’t have time to handle a new Zen2 stepping. Maybe when AMD has a larger engineering budget, they will do interim stepping changes.

 

[YBS1]

Amazon does not even have the 3950x listed, preorder or otherwise ! After my dual 7601 EYPC box, I am broke, but when I remover, I want a 3950x for my x570 board that is empty @!

I've pretty much given up on the 3950X. Having had an ASRock Aqua sitting here for two months now doing nothing, I threw in the towel and ordered a 3900X to use until the 4XXX Ryzen variants arrive. This is no joke, I had my phone in my hand on release day and received the "now in stock" push alert from Amazon, clicked on it and they were already gone. So much for the two month delay "to ensure adequate availability" upon release.

 

[Ajay]

I've pretty much given up on the 3950X. Having had an ASRock Aqua sitting here for two months now doing nothing, I threw in the towel and ordered a 3900X to use until the 4XXX Ryzen variants arrive. This is no joke, I had my phone in my hand on release day and received the "now in stock" push alert from Amazon, clicked on it and they were already gone. So much for the two month delay "to ensure adequate availability" upon release.

Sorry for your troubles. Well, if you have the dosh to do that, you’ll be getting a superior product next year. Hopefully, AMD will have learned from this years problems and have better availability.

 

[Bavor]

I've pretty much given up on the 3950X. Having had an ASRock Aqua sitting here for two months now doing nothing, I threw in the towel and ordered a 3900X to use until the 4XXX Ryzen variants arrive. This is no joke, I had my phone in my hand on release day and received the "now in stock" push alert from Amazon, clicked on it and they were already gone. So much for the two month delay "to ensure adequate availability" upon release.

Every time Amazon notified me of the 3950X being in stock it was sold out by the time the page loaded or the app opened. Its basically a paper launch if quantities are that low. Both Amazon and newegg sold out of their pre release shipments in less than 2 minutes on the 25th. From what the various people said at the different Microcenter locations about the store quantities available on release day(10 to 20 per store at most stores), the entire chain nationwide probably received about 500 of the 3950X CPUs. I wouldn't be shocked if the total 3950X CPUs available for sale in the U.S. on the 25th was 2,500 or less.