News [SA] SA teasers on WOA, Qualcomm, and new Arm entrants (NV/Samsung?)

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Tup3x

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MediaTek did demo their ARM SoC and RTX 3060 in Chromebook, so everything is possible...
 

hemedans

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Jan 31, 2015
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MediaTek did demo their ARM SoC and RTX 3060 in Chromebook, so everything is possible...
Even rumored Switch 2 Soc has combination of Ampere Gpu and Cortex A78 cores, while not ideal for high perfomance laptop, its good combination for Tablets and some ultrabook which focus on batterylife.
 

ikjadoon

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If it’s true that MS went with NVIDIA: hasn’t Microsoft seen samples of the NUVIA laptop SoC, Oryon? Qualcomm has long hyped how revolutionary their next SoC is vs incumbents at Arm.

Does Microsoft believe Cortex-X4 / X5 are close enough to NUVIA’s Phoenix core? 🤔

In the NUVIA acquisition, Panos Panay was the first in Qualcomm’s PR:

Microsoft: “It’s exciting to see NUVIA join the Qualcomm team. Our partnership with Qualcomm has always been about providing great experiences on our products. Moving forward, we have an incredible opportunity to empower our customers across the Windows ecosystem,” said Panos Panay, Chief Product Officer, Microsoft.
 
Mar 11, 2004
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If it’s true that MS went with NVIDIA: hasn’t Microsoft seen samples of the NUVIA laptop SoC, Oryon? Qualcomm has long hyped how revolutionary their next SoC is vs incumbents at Arm.

Does Microsoft believe Cortex-X4 / X5 are close enough to NUVIA’s Phoenix core? 🤔

In the NUVIA acquisition, Panos Panay was the first in Qualcomm’s PR:

The fact that Microsoft apparently got tired of waiting on Qualcomm to deliver something I think is telling after they apparently were this patient this long (but perhaps that's why, disappointment with what Qualcomm has offered thus far and further delays), and doubly so that they apparently went with NVidia who also has had a problem delivering on ARM. Either NVidia had an ARM design spec'ed out already that reasonably met what Microsoft is looking for, or there's something else going on (NVidia touting leveraging them for AI). Or maybe Microsoft being Microsoft and giving up being burned by one to get burned by NVidia yet again.

It makes one wonder if Qualcomm was intentionally trying to sabotage the market, they're incompetent, or maybe something else. Which with Qualcomm ditching Intel, could Intel be the reason for this, either intentionally or not (meaning, either their fabs are just struggling that much with new processes, leading to another delay for Qualcomm or they intentionally were jerking Qualcomm around to stymie ARM on Windows).

Guess if we see who this other party is, it might offer some clue. My guess is it'll be Samsung, hopefully with AMD GPU (which would be a much better fit for that type of chip). Also, hopefully it might mean that they're going with fairly stock ARM CPU cores, because NVidia has a bad track record with custom ARM designs (unless in their buildup to the ARM acquisition they were already working on something). Common ARM CPU and NVidia and AMD GPUs would likely massively help accelerate ARM on Windows development. The GPU commonality with existing Windows should help provide mature graphics drivers (and bolster some markets that appear to be developing like Steamdeck like gaming focused portables). Or maybe some Microsoft spec ARM design which they then have for Nvidia and possibly others to produce.

Random thought, could hybrid design go x86 for performance and ARM for efficiency cores (although I think there it would be more about density, cramming a lot of cores in the smallest area).
 
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ikjadoon

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The fact that Microsoft apparently got tired of waiting on Qualcomm to deliver something I think is telling after they apparently were this patient this long (but perhaps that's why, disappointment with what Qualcomm has offered thus far and further delays), and doubly so that they apparently went with NVidia who also has had a problem delivering on ARM. Either NVidia had an ARM design spec'ed out already that reasonably met what Microsoft is looking for, or there's something else going on (NVidia touting leveraging them for AI). Or maybe Microsoft being Microsoft and giving up being burned by one to get burned by NVidia yet again.

It makes one wonder if Qualcomm was intentionally trying to sabotage the market, they're incompetent, or maybe something else. Which with Qualcomm ditching Intel, could Intel be the reason for this, either intentionally or not (meaning, either their fabs are just struggling that much with new processes, leading to another delay for Qualcomm or they intentionally were jerking Qualcomm around to stymie ARM on Windows).

Guess if we see who this other party is, it might offer some clue. My guess is it'll be Samsung, hopefully with AMD GPU (which would be a much better fit for that type of chip). Also, hopefully it might mean that they're going with fairly stock ARM CPU cores, because NVidia has a bad track record with custom ARM designs (unless in their buildup to the ARM acquisition they were already working on something). Common ARM CPU and NVidia and AMD GPUs would likely massively help accelerate ARM on Windows development. The GPU commonality with existing Windows should help provide mature graphics drivers (and bolster some markets that appear to be developing like Steamdeck like gaming focused portables). Or maybe some Microsoft spec ARM design which they then have for Nvidia and possibly others to produce.

Random thought, could hybrid design go x86 for performance and ARM for efficiency cores (although I think there it would be more about density, cramming a lot of cores in the smallest area).

Agreed that it is unusual that it's NVIDIA; Microsoft hasn't had much success via either Qualcomm's SQ1 / SQ2 nor NVIDIA's Tegra 3.

Qualcomm has always had a money focus & their products suffer. It's not Exynos bad, but it's still quite sad what Qualcomm done with Windows on Qualcomm.

//

Re: GPUs, yes. I would've liked to have seen a Samsung + AMD SoC, too: hell, offer both. But, a concern is that Samsung hasn't ever shipped Arm silicon outside of mobile + wearables + maybe some IoT / TV stuff. Even Samsung's own Windows on Arm laptops use Qualcomm SoCs. On the other hand, at least Samsung has shipped a WoA device, meanwhile NVIDIA's Arm stuff is basically all Linux.

Microsoft says they picked NVIDIA consumer + Quadro GPUs in their Surface Book 3 for gaming, "ray-tracing rendering, and AI acceleration" + "enterprise-level hardware, drivers and support" + "IT management features". The Surface Laptop Studio likewise included the 3050 Ti and RTX A2000 with similar claims.

AMD's professional mobile GPUs (Radeon PRO) are already out, but I'm unsure why Microsoft hasn't offered them before: Dell, HP, and Lenovo all offer AMD's professional GPUs.

At the same time, mixing ISAs onto a single die may be tricky (shifting workloads, extensions). Mobile Arm Cortex-X3 1T perf matches mid-range mobile Alder Lake and mobile Zen3 in Geekbench averages.

CPUGeekbench 6 / 1T points
Intel i7-1265U (Golden Cove)1886
Qualcomm SD 8Gen2 (Arm Cortex-X3)1877
AMD 6900HX (Zen3)1966

//

In separate news, Ampere Computing has now published how to get Steam Proton running on their massive server workstations (presumably w/ a NVIDIA GPU).

NVIDIA, interestingly, has no public Windows on Arm drivers for its GPUs: only on Linux aarch64😅 Though, AMD should have Linux Arm drivers, I also don't see any for Windows.
 

JoeRambo

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Jun 13, 2013
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I think at this point MS has seen the writing on the wall with Apple's ecosystem who are offering the following:

1) Advantage in CPU performance vs Qualcomm's disastrous efforts, there is not much to say when the gap is almost 2x in GB6 ST, not really same class of devices.
2) Incredulous advantage in GPU performance
3) Very competent x64 emulation, helped by CPU customization
4) Apples efforts at making use of Steam Deck game emulation driven advances in GPTK. I think if they were serious about it, they could be running a lot of games very capably. Things will only get better there, as they are using industry momentum in graphic framework translation on Linux.
5) very competent SoC overall with acceleration of a lot of things relevant for today like video, image, voice, AI etc.

Clearly MS felt that they need SoC with seriuos graphic's/video codec/acceleration IP and I think the main players are:

1) Samsung with that AMD GPU IP collab they've announced that felt out of place in phones
2) X party with Nvidia's IP

Who is X? Probably Mediatek.
 
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SpudLobby

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May 18, 2022
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I think at this point MS has seen the writing on the wall with Apple's ecosystem who are offering the following:

1) Advantage in CPU performance vs Qualcomm's disastrous efforts, there is not much to say when the gap is almost 2x in GB6 ST, not really same class of devices.
2) Incredulous advantage in GPU performance
3) Very competent x64 emulation, helped by CPU customization
4) Apples efforts at making use of Steam Deck game emulation driven advances in GPTK. I think if they were serious about it, they could be running a lot of games very capably. Things will only get better there, as they are using industry momentum in graphic framework translation on Linux.
5) very competent SoC overall with acceleration of a lot of things relevant for today like video, image, voice, AI etc.

Clearly MS felt that they need SoC with seriuos graphic's/video codec/acceleration IP and I think the main players are:

1) Samsung with that AMD GPU IP collab they've announced that felt out of place in phones
2) X party with Nvidia's IP

Who is X? Probably Mediatek.

On 1:

Yeah the current QC efforts suck but the future ones won't as much, that's not the main thing this is about per se so much as QC mishandling it. They might've fumbled something if those new Nuvia leaks are accurate but it's a world away from 8Cx Gen 3. I think MS probably got sick of a delay or something similar and Nvidia paid MS for the slots. It's not MediaTek though. it's about Nvidia with their own SoC for the slot, and the new entrant is Samsung. I'm positive this is the most accurate known rumor about it and it makes sense.

Gaming on Apple stuff isn't going to happen overall. They just don't care enough. Acceleration for media is important but I mean even the rumored 8cx Gen 4 has plenty of that apparently for encode/decode and AMD/Intel can do that too. It's really not at all high barrier to find IP for that and throw it onboard, you don't need Nvidia for that.

Wouldn't pin hopes on AMD IP in the Exynos chips. The contract forbids that. I don't think MediaTek will have a Nvidia iGPU either. Nvidia's entrance will be their own SoC.
 
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SpudLobby

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IOW: X is not MediaTek, MediaTek may still be coming but that's not who he's talking about, this I am confident in. And I am extremely skeptical we will see AMD or Nvidia iGPU's on Samsung and MediaTek laptops. They will just have to use Mali.
 

Doug S

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Feb 8, 2020
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They might've fumbled something if those new Nuvia leaks are accurate but it's a world away from 8Cx Gen 3.

The Nuvia leak has GB6 at 1700 and when I look at the GB site 8cx Gen 3 is 1500. That's an improvement but hardly "a world away".
 
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JoeRambo

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Jun 13, 2013
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The Nuvia leak has GB6 at 1700 and when I look at the GB site 8cx Gen 3 is 1500. That's an improvement but hardly "a world away".

Might as well skip effort and just use ARM's vanilla cores. Apple laptops are ~2800 in GB6, so 1500 or 1700 are pretty much same junk grade performance level from 2015's laptops. The reality is that Apple with x64 translation would perform better than native performance of these chips from 2015's era of perf.
Btw GB6 is lovely in exposing these useless cores, good old tricks with "lets add vector AES instructions to padd score" no longer work there. If your SoC is bad, it shows in the score now.
 
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ikjadoon

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The Nuvia leak has GB6 at 1700 and when I look at the GB site 8cx Gen 3 is 1500. That's an improvement but hardly "a world away".

Oof. Possibly an engineering sample, no? I guess we'll see on Q1 2024 (4 months away). Maybe Qualcomm, in fear of Arm's licensee lawsuit, butchered the Phoenix cores so they weren't infringing on NUVIA's since-cancelled ALA designs.

Funnily, back in 2021, Qualcomm claimed "leadership in sustained performance", with an unclear caveat for Windows PCs only.

 

Lodix

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Jun 24, 2016
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Just fot reference current SD8 Gen 2 for smartphones scores ~2000 Sigle core in Geekbench 6 ( on Android with no emulation obviously ). And in a few months we will have the next one with at least another 10% improvement in SC.
 

qmech

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Jan 29, 2022
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Just fot reference current SD8 Gen 2 for smartphones scores ~2000 Sigle core in Geekbench 6 ( on Android with no emulation obviously ). And in a few months we will have the next one with at least another 10% improvement in SC.

The only way to catch up with Apple's ST performance is to devote the die size to it. The Avalanche cores are just larger in every way. They have 3x the L1 instruction cache, 2x the L1 data cache, and 4x the L2 cache. Although not usually relevant for ST performance, the M2 also has nearly twice the bandwidth to main memory. It's also a wider design with a ridiculously large reorder buffer.

The Cortex-X4 is going to be interesting. It has beefed up the execution and allows for double the L2 cache. ARM's performance slides aside, I'm looking forward to seeing the X4 in different L2 cache configurations. That should give us an idea of how cache-starved the core is (which is where it really lacks compared to Apple's performance cores).
 
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ikjadoon

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The only way to catch up with Apple's ST performance is to devote the die size to it. The Avalanche cores are just larger in every way. They have 3x the L1 instruction cache, 2x the L1 data cache, and 4x the L2 cache. Although not usually relevant for ST performance, the M2 also has nearly twice the bandwidth to main memory. It's also a wider design with a ridiculously large reorder buffer.

The Cortex-X4 is going to be interesting. It has beefed up the execution and allows for double the L2 cache. ARM's performance slides aside, I'm looking forward to seeing the X4 in different L2 cache configurations. That should give us an idea of how cache-starved the core is (which is where it really lacks compared to Apple's performance cores).

Agreed; there seems to be a lot of guessing, and not a lot of data (where Arm's own data shows a few specific large gains and general minor improvements of 1MB L2 vs 2MB L2 in X4) on the cache debate.

On the die sizes: what I can't past is that the largest part of SoC dies are the GPU + NPU + SoC bits and bobs. The CPU + CPU L2 (excluding the SoC-wide L3) are relatively small even in Apple's designs. Nobody today is short on die area for their CPU, if they needed more space.



Qualcomm / Intel / AMD / Arm have the means + budget to fabricate larger CPUs (because they had no problem adding die area for GPUs + NPUs). The harder, and less clear, question: are their designs actually cache-starved or are the bottlenecks somewhere else in the uArch? Perhaps their designs simply aren't scalable and won't benefit (wrong design target, the lack of interest, or the lack of technical ability).

Perhaps other design bottlenecks mean a bigger core is not possible, at least without other compromises.

Kind of like NVIDIA adding a 16GB RTX 4060 Ti. It's bigger, it cost a bit more money, but the extra VRAM was not helpful. Or drag tires on a Toyota Camry: the car doesn't go fast enough to benefit from the tires anyways.

//

If rumors are true, MediaTek is willing to dedicate 4x X4 cores onto a mobile SoC (e.g., presumably on some TSMC N3 node), they are more interested in multi-core performance than extracting the peak performance of a single X4 core.
 

qmech

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Not all die size is created equally.

With SRAM, it's easy to add a few lines to compensate for defects. That's typically not the case with logic, particularly the critical logic of a high-performance core.

Then there are the variances in fabbing that don't quite amount to a defect, but can contribute to the core only operating at a reduced frequency. The SRAM and uncore parts of a SoC are not as sensitive to this (simpler, lower frequency targets).
 
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Joe NYC

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From SemiAccurate, a series. Yes, it's paywalled and this is effectively a blurred line between rumors and news but Charlie's credibility isn't exactly MLID-tier and we discuss those things, so this I think is worth a thread. There are four posts in total, intertwined effectively:

I) MS made a deal with QC on WOA notebooks
II) QC lost that socket - or two. (Presumably Surface-related)
III) In Qualcomm's place, someone unexpected won that socket/contract - who?

The curious finale in IV, independent of the firm that won that socket Qualcomm lost (may not be an Arm-based replacement though) there's a new entry to the WOA space.

IV) "A new player enters the ARM laptop SoC space"
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


I) and II) are much more difficult to guess about and I think generally less interesting other than that Nuvia delays are possibly if not probably in play and QC's sloppiness hurt them, maybe even a pricing issue.

On III):

Assuming it isn't restricted to WOA here, to me this isn't Intel but probably MediaTek or plausibly AMD, because of "given the company's ambitions".

That is very straightforward here with regard to MediaTek's interest in something competitive for WOA as they've voiced publicly two if not three different times (maybe more) since 2020. Alternatively, for AMD everyone knows they're interested in growing their mobile pie - which is wise, because DIY crap is frankly kind of irrelevant.

On IV):

Putting aside Charlie's stylistic bitterness, this has to be Nvidia or Samsung. The mention of Apple alongside the seismic shift makes me think so.

For Samsung's client/consumer division, they'd have to use stock IP obviously but they absolutely could ask for and buy beefier Exynos chips to throw into laptops without much issue (besides drivers) with their industrial scale and since they are an endpoint laptop vendor. MediaTek has to sell to someone directly, and has a tougher time with the chicken and egg game. I don't know it's likely, but it's possible, I guess.

However, I think it's far more likely to be Nvidia. Stock cores + GeForce IP on a recent process node could be popular and they'd have a reciprocal effect on developer interest.

There is a famous quote from supermodel Linda Evangelista, saying she does not get out of bed for less than $10,000.

With NVidia pocketing profits well over $10,000 per H100, it would be curious if NVidia was interested in market where it is an uphill battle to make $10 per chip.
 
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SpudLobby

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There is a famous quote from supermodel Linda Evangelista, saying she does not get out of bed for less than $10,000.

With NVidia pocketing profits well over $10,000 per H100, it would be curious if NVidia was interested in market where it is an uphill battle to make $10 per chip.
Those margins will decline somewhat long term, it’s inevitable. Anyways, this is a curious line of reasoning and I’ve explained why I don’t expect it to govern their behavior here because firms aren’t unitary actors. They sell fricking Orin SoC’s today along with dGPUs for laptops and there are other payoffs for Nvidia in expanding their revenue streams — namely in amortization of IP development. The article is indeed about Nvidia from what I gather, they paid for the Surface slot after 2024.

The other new entrant at the very end is Samsung.
 
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SpudLobby

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The Nuvia leak has GB6 at 1700 and when I look at the GB site 8cx Gen 3 is 1500. That's an improvement but hardly "a world away".

That’s not 8cx Gen 3. You don’t know what you’re talking about.

It was GB5 at 1700-1800 for starters and 8Cx Gen 3 is at 1100. That’s a huge difference, and it’d be on TSMC N4, not Samsung 5NM.

The MT is massively improved as well.


I’d also like to add the L1/L2/L3 structure on the 8Cx Gen 4 suggests the actual energy consumption will punch above it’s weight if you solely looked at IPC or the node. Easy way to reduce energy consumption by keeping data closer to the core.
 

SpudLobby

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May 18, 2022
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That’s not 8cx Gen 3. You don’t know what you’re talking about.

It was GB5 at 1700-1800 for starters and 8Cx Gen 3 is at 1100. That’s a huge difference, and it’d be on TSMC N4, not Samsung 5NM.

The MT is massively improved as well.


I’d also like to add the L1/L2/L3 structure on the 8Cx Gen 4 suggests the actual energy consumption will punch above it’s weight if you solely looked at IPC or the node. Easy way to reduce energy consumption by keeping data closer to the core.
RE: Doug’s claim:


This is still dissapointing but to say it isn’t a world away from the current Arm on Windows offering, where the 8Cx Gen 3 is on SS 5NM, with 4 X1’s and 4 A78’s, clocking in for a 1100/5500 GB5 ST/MT is just laughably wrong.

It would be different if the alternative today were X3’s from MediaTek on N4, but we don’t have that on Windows.
 

SpudLobby

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May 18, 2022
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Just fot reference current SD8 Gen 2 for smartphones scores ~2000 Sigle core in Geekbench 6 ( on Android with no emulation obviously ). And in a few months we will have the next one with at least another 10% improvement in SC.
Yeah the actual improvement over the current Arm IP is now low or insignificant which is why it’s disappointing. But it is still a major upgrade over the existing WoA SoC performance which is a separate issue.

But energy efficiency is a separate issue from the IPC/perf alone, given the cache hierarchy of the Nuvia stuff.
 
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SpudLobby

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Are you sure he doesn't know what he talks about?


8cx gen3 is 1100 for GB5 and 1500 for GB6.

I am actually, I'm very confident.

The Nuvia leak has GB6 at 1700 and when I look at the GB site 8cx Gen 3 is 1500. That's an improvement but hardly "a world away".

Because the Nuvia score leak isn't on GB6. It's GB5, and GB5's ST index is lower in absolute than GB6.
Also note I never disputed that the 8Cx would score 1500 on GB6, but then too the Nuvia score would be higher, so I found Doug's snark somewhat weird because a 14% total ST performance gain over the 8Cx Gen 3 that lags even last year's mobile stuff. The rumor tweet:

"Rumor says about the overall situation of Nuvia-based 8CX Gen4 development in Qualcomm.Initial goal (January): GB5 Single 1900pts; 2000pts at 4GHzMay: Lowered goal to 1800 pts in GB5 SingleResult: 1600 @ 3.4 GHz, 1775 @ 3.8 GHzSOURCE: https://gall.dcinside.com/galaxy/998869 (in Korean)"

What Doug said would imply the 8 Gen 2 - the 2022 mobile product with an X3's ST would be superior even with lower frequencies and they'd have a mere 10-15% total performance gain on a Cortex X1 product shipped on SS 5NM (the 8Cx Gen 3) vs Nuvia + TSMC N4. That's just DOA especially comparing to the others.


Now, the core is disappointing seeing as it doesn't match Firestorm/Avalanche IPC nor the Cortex X4 - so it's entirely plausible as we're seeing that things may fall short on performance but that's within ballpark of both Nuvia estimations or just sanity.

I also feel completely comfortable saying a product with a 1600-1800 GB5 for the ST is a "world away" from the 1100 on the 8Cx Gen 3, that is a 45-63% uplift in ST. There's also an effectively 2.5-3X boost to MT, given the top part has 8 P cores and 4 E cores that are presumably shrunken P cores with lower clocks, rumored at 12000-14500 GB5 MT vs 5000-5500 on the 8Cx Gen 3.

Will it be enough to compete with Strix Point or Intel's new products, or the M3 (assuming market crossover)? Don't know yet, also depends on how quickly they get a second model off and also the energy efficiency/battery life of these products, IMO. But lol, it's not THAT bad RE: 14% better than 8Cx Gen 3.
 
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ikjadoon

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—-

"Rumor says about the overall situation of Nuvia-based 8CX Gen4 development in Qualcomm.Initial goal (January): GB5 Single 1900pts; 2000pts at 4GHzMay: Lowered goal to 1800 pts in GB5 SingleResult: 1600 @ 3.4 GHz, 1775 @ 3.8 GHzSOURCE: https://gall.dcinside.com/galaxy/998869 (in Korean)"




Now, the core is disappointing seeing as it doesn't match Firestorm/Avalanche IPC nor the Cortex X4 - so it's entirely plausible as we're seeing that things may fall short on performance but that's within ballpark of both Nuvia estimations or just sanity.



Will it be enough to compete with Strix Point or Intel's new products, or the M3 (assuming market crossover)? Don't know yet, also depends on how quickly they get a second model off and also the energy efficiency/battery life of these products, IMO. But lol, it's not THAT bad RE: 14% better than 8Cx Gen 3.

Assuming those Phoenix scores are an accurate leak:

CPU"IPC" (Pts / GHz)GB5 1T PtsFrequency
Cortex-X3 (SD8G2)4381,3983.19 GHz
Cortex-X2 (SD8G1)4091,3093.20 GHz
Cortex-X1 (8CXG3)3621,0873.0 GHz
Phoenix A4671,7753.8 GHz
Phoenix B4701,6003.4 GHz

So Phoenix would have the +7% IPC of the Cortex-X3, so there's a chance it matches the Cortex-X4 IPC. Of course, there's so much more to making a solid consumer SoC: efficiency, peak power draw, smaller Phoenix cores, [the entire rest of the Hamoa SoC].

But, at least Microsoft's decision makes more sense: if Microsoft's own laptops weren't basically the fastest Windows on Arm devices, that would've been shameful.

I imagine the "2024 NVIDIA SoC" will use the Cortex-X4. Arm estimates in Geekbench 5 IPC uplift is ~7%, so that tracks with the Cortex-X4 IPC = Phoenix IPC.



Whether Qualcomm thinks its decisions were worth $1.6 billion, a supplier lawsuit, and the loss of Microsoft Surface design wins: maybe they expect better results from Phoenix's successor (assuming the perf leaks are true).

Sources:
 
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