[SemiAccurate] Intel kills off the 10nm process

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PotatoWithEarsOnSide

Senior member
Feb 23, 2017
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He says about "how we define that" quite a bit, which suggests some "creativity" in terms of what they are calling 10nm and 7nm.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
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How many times did Intel claim 10nm was on track? That doesn't mean 7nm is late of course, just that their claims should be taken with a grain of salt.

As I said, there's still reason to be optimistic about 7. But it still won't be until 2021 at the earliest. I have to figure they will be extremely anxious by then to take it into HVM the second they realistically can.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
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The other theory I guess is that Intel implemented or backported EMIB to Icelake. Just separate CPU and GPU tiles, maybe they can tie in the 14 nm PCH as well. Either way they would run one small production line, and whatever they get out of it is what the OEMs get.

The NUC leak really does make it seem like Icelake Client won't be in that high of volume but maybe they could get a half mill, mill a quarter in product.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
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BK did use the i8-8121U as a way to pretend that he had shipped Cannonlake on time. They might do the same thing to keep IceLake on target.
 

Nothingness

Platinum Member
Jul 3, 2013
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As I said, there's still reason to be optimistic about 7. But it still won't be until 2021 at the earliest. I have to figure they will be extremely anxious by then to take it into HVM the second they realistically can.
I didn't mean to say they would fail again or be late with 7nm. It's just hard to trust what they say without some hard evidence.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
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I didn't mean to say they would fail again or be late with 7nm. It's just hard to trust what they say without some hard evidence.

Agree, but I think we are getting at the point where if they aren't 100% convinced they can deliver in 2021 they need to be porting everything to TSMC.
 
Mar 10, 2006
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I didn't mean to say they would fail again or be late with 7nm. It's just hard to trust what they say without some hard evidence.

Agreed, they had Mark Bohr coming out saying that 10nm wouldn't be problematic like 14nm was in the press and yet 10nm turned out to be a massive dumpster fire.

If they want to put hard timelines out there and show some actual yield data, then their claims become more credible.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
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There’s no way TSMC can handle Intel's volume!!

They can if Intel partners with them and lets them upgrade Intel's fabs. And vice versa.

If you can't beat em, join em.

Funny how BK got booted right out of Intel when it became obvious what was going on.

It should have been obvious to everyone that's why Intel brought up an affair from three years ago (at the time) as the reason for his ouster.
 
Mar 11, 2004
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They can handle Apple's volume, so...

Except they now have Apple's volume, practically all of AMD's volume, probably all of Nvidia's volume, maybe all of Qualcomm's volume, and who knows what else (new consoles on the way).

Which if TSMC had the foresight to get enough production for almost the entire industry, then kudos to them and they deserve all the business that would entail.

Since I believe that Samsung's 7nm was built for EUV, and I don't think they'll have enough equipment to mass produce near TSMC's 7nm level (they can probably make enough for their own phones, especially since they'll be using Snapdragon in the US), so I don't see them being able to take many customer's on, and I think it'll take awhile to get a non-EUV 7nm process up and running.

Intel shouldn't freak out, unless 10nm and 7nm are both basically broken and they know it'll be 5 years before they can get mass production on either. I think they need to move to EMIB and chiplets. I think that's a big part of why Keller was brought on board, as I think they know they need to fasttrack thing outside the chip production, and try to get a leg up on those areas (where their processes would still be cutting edge).
 
Mar 11, 2004
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They can if Intel partners with them and lets them upgrade Intel's fabs. And vice versa.

If you can't beat em, join em.



It should have been obvious to everyone that's why Intel brought up an affair from three years ago (at the time) as the reason for his ouster.

Why would TSMC do that? Would that take Intel spinning off their fabs? TSMC was looking forward by building something like 5 new fabs (not sure if they're all 7nm, but it was with that production in mind), so I wouldn't think they'd want to share so as to keep their 7nm production as full as possible, unless it was basically signing their fabs over to TSMC.

Heck, would that even really be possible? I mean, yes sure anything is possible with enough money, but how much change would it take to accomplish that?
 

TheELF

Diamond Member
Dec 22, 2012
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Intel shouldn't freak out, unless 10nm and 7nm are both basically broken and they know it'll be 5 years before they can get mass production on either. I think they need to move to EMIB and chiplets. I think that's a big part of why Keller was brought on board, as I think they know they need to fasttrack thing outside the chip production, and try to get a leg up on those areas (where their processes would still be cutting edge).
What do they have to freak out about???
Demand for 14nm has increased...to such a degree that intel has to build a new fab to meet that demand.
Even if 10nm works perfectly and has awesome production numbers ever since may why on earth would intel switch to selling 10nm if they can make millions more on 14nm and then make the same millions again on 10nm?!
 
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PotatoWithEarsOnSide

Senior member
Feb 23, 2017
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Yup, they can probably milk the sheep for a while longer yet.
Due to Intel's production capacities, I don't see how they couldn't ride out any storm for at least a few years. Investors might have to put up with reduced revenues, profits, margins etc, but eventually the tide should turn back in their favour.
 

Nothingness

Platinum Member
Jul 3, 2013
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What do they have to freak out about???
Demand for 14nm has increased...to such a degree that intel has to build a new fab to meet that demand.
Even if 10nm works perfectly and has awesome production numbers ever since may why on earth would intel switch to selling 10nm if they can make millions more on 14nm and then make the same millions again on 10nm?!
It's likely demand for 14nm has increased because Intel had hoped to have 10nm ready by now and so didn't build more 14nm lines. And it's also likely that if they can't meed demand it's also due to that failure. That is a real fiasco.

But Intel definitely is strong enough to survive that failure, their resilience is incredible.
 

moinmoin

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Jun 1, 2017
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Except they now have Apple's volume, practically all of AMD's volume, probably all of Nvidia's volume, maybe all of Qualcomm's volume, and who knows what else (new consoles on the way).
The volume for the mobile market dwarfs that of the PC market, and TSMC always did a significant part of it. Outside of Intel moving big parts of its production to TSMC everything they already do should be far from making them sweat.
 

NTMBK

Lifer
Nov 14, 2011
10,269
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What do they have to freak out about???
Demand for 14nm has increased...to such a degree that intel has to build a new fab to meet that demand.
Even if 10nm works perfectly and has awesome production numbers ever since may why on earth would intel switch to selling 10nm if they can make millions more on 14nm and then make the same millions again on 10nm?!

Intel now has to sell bigger chips to satisfy users. Xeons with dual 28 core dies, 8 core desktops, quad core ultrabooks. Everything needs a bigger chip, which means fewer chips per wafer, which means more wafers, which means tighter margins and a capacity crunch.
 
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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
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Why would TSMC do that? Would that take Intel spinning off their fabs? TSMC was looking forward by building something like 5 new fabs (not sure if they're all 7nm, but it was with that production in mind), so I wouldn't think they'd want to share so as to keep their 7nm production as full as possible, unless it was basically signing their fabs over to TSMC.

Heck, would that even really be possible? I mean, yes sure anything is possible with enough money, but how much change would it take to accomplish that?

TSMC is going to run into trouble eventually at smaller nodes. They have the hot hand on 7nm, Intel has a lot of facilities and skilled engineers, and the two of them together could put Samsung and anything the Chicoms do in the dust. There's a race to the limits of physics. Yes Intel might have to sign off their fabs in the same way that IBM signed of theirs to GF.

Eventually Intel, TSMC, Samsung, GF, and possibly others will have to collaborate more and more to get more shrinks. It just makes sense to build that in as a backup plan when the next foundry runs into the same kind of trouble that Intel is seeing today.
 

Tuna-Fish

Golden Member
Mar 4, 2011
1,422
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It's likely demand for 14nm has increased because Intel had hoped to have 10nm ready by now and so didn't build more 14nm lines.

The reason demand has increased is that all the Meltdown/Spectre fixes ruin performance on existing CPUs, and now all the huge cloud service providers are purchasing new chips with fixes that fit into the existing motherboards.
 

TheELF

Diamond Member
Dec 22, 2012
3,993
744
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It's likely demand for 14nm has increased because Intel had hoped to have 10nm ready by now and so didn't build more 14nm lines. And it's also likely that if they can't meed demand it's also due to that failure. That is a real fiasco.

But Intel definitely is strong enough to survive that failure, their resilience is incredible.
And what exactly would they need MORE 14nm lines for?Only increased demand.
No company is stupid enough to switch to a new production that they aren't ready for,they had hoped to have 10nm ready by now so they switched everything to 10nm....because hope?!?!
 
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