(Semiwiki) Intel 14nm Delayed Again?

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
136
Intel 14nm Delayed Again?


From the sources in which I confirmed the last Intel 14nm delay, I just confirmed another. Intel 14nm is STILL having yield problems. Remember Intel bragging about 14nm being a full node and deriding TSMC because 16nm is "just" 20nm with FinFETs added? Judging by the graph, clearly FinFETs are not the problem here. Intel used a much more aggressive metal fabric to get better density which is challenging modern lithography methods.
Hmm, no Broadwell in 2014 then ?? If that rumor is true, then 14nm ATOM may be pushed to 2015 as well.
 
Reactions: Drazick

OCGuy

Lifer
Jul 12, 2000
27,224
36
91
Lucky for them they needed an excuse to clear the 22nm pipe and make as much profit as they can off of the more mature process.

Yield problems alone would be a reason to soft-launch with a slow rollout. Delaying completely almost a whole year before it is supposed to hit the market? Not buying it.

Also the source in that "article" is non-existent, it is more like a blog post. Some other "headlines" from that page:


"Intel's Mea Culpa!"

"Intel is NOT Transparent Again!"

"Why Intel 14nm is NOT a Game Changer!"

:hmm:
 
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AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
136
Q4 2014 then.

You mean they will release Broadwell in Q4 2014 ?? If so, then actual products (Laptops) will only be available in H1 2015.

Also, that puts 14nm way beyond 24 months of 22nm release.

32nm first product release January 2010 (First gen Core i3)
22nm first product release April 2012 (IvyBridge), 27 months after 32nm
14nm first product release Q4 2014 (Broadwell), 30 months after 22nm if they will release in October.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
136
Also the source in that "article" is non-existent,

Its the same guy that wrote about the 14nm delay that was confirmed by the Intel CEO. But yes for the moment its just a rumor, but he points out as a source the same people they told him about the delay last year.
 

Homeles

Platinum Member
Dec 9, 2011
2,580
0
0
I'd be willing to listen about 14nm delays if the information came from just about any other source, and not some TSMC shill.
 

mikk

Diamond Member
May 15, 2012
4,244
2,299
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You mean they will release Broadwell in Q4 2014 ??

I don't mean anything, it just makes sense. Broadwell was planned for Q3 and if there is a second delay it probably will be Q4. Digitimes reported Q4 today.

Also, that puts 14nm way beyond 24 months of 22nm release.

32nm first product release January 2010 (First gen Core i3)
22nm first product release April 2012 (IvyBridge), 27 months after 32nm
14nm first product release Q4 2014 (Broadwell), 30 months after 22nm if they will release in October.


Yes there could be 1 quarter delay compared to 22nm and 32nm but seeing how TSMC is struggling with 20nm (probably 3 years from 28nm to 20nm) it shouldn't surprise anyone that the timeframe is increasing from shrink to shrink.
 

OCGuy

Lifer
Jul 12, 2000
27,224
36
91
Intel is finally going to slow down the train, I am assuming. Between SB/IB/HW being more than "good enough" for basically everything, causing even enthusiasts to question the need to upgrade, the increasing costs of developing each new process, as well as the global outlook for PCs, predictable "tick tock" is dead.

Fab 42 wasn't meant to be empty. Sony just ended VAIO as we know it. Global PC sales are on a 6-quarter decline streak. Today's headline from an "emerging" BRICs market:

PC sales slump 19%, manufacturers look for exit

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...urers-look-for-exit/articleshow/30248511.cms?


I will personally keep an eye on the R&D expenditure. If we see that drop, then things could start to slow down even further in the next decade.

Just watch and see the 14nm SoC process with Atom be released in 2014 as stated. Not too hard to connect dots.
 
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Homeles

Platinum Member
Dec 9, 2011
2,580
0
0
Intel is finally going to slow down the train, I am assuming. Between SB/IB/HW being more than "good enough" for basically everything, causing even enthusiasts to question the need to upgrade, the increasing costs of developing each new process, as well as the global outlook for PCs, predictable "tick tock" is dead.

Fab 42 wasn't meant to be empty. Sony just ended VAIO as we know it. Global PC sales are on a 6-quarter decline streak. Today's headline from an "emerging" BRICs market:

PC sales slump 19%, manufacturers look for exit

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...urers-look-for-exit/articleshow/30248511.cms?
This is the time for Intel to push harder, not ease back. They're getting into new markets, and delays like this are very, very bad in that regard.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
Intel is finally going to slow down the train, I am assuming. Between SB/IB/HW being more than "good enough" for basically everything, causing even enthusiasts to question the need to upgrade, the increasing costs of developing each new process, as well as the global outlook for PCs, predictable "tick tock" is dead.

Fab 42 wasn't meant to be empty. Sony just ended VAIO as we know it. Global PC sales are on a 6-quarter decline streak. Today's headline from an "emerging" BRICs market:

PC sales slump 19%, manufacturers look for exit

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...urers-look-for-exit/articleshow/30248511.cms?

http://techreport.com/news/26013/digitimes-january-notebook-shipments-better-than-expected

Reportedly, the top five notebook vendors saw their shipments grow 9% from January 2013 to January 2014.
 

Homeles

Platinum Member
Dec 9, 2011
2,580
0
0
A bit off topic, but I'm thrilled that Sony's out of the PC market. What terrible laptops.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
I'd be willing to listen about 14nm delays if the information came from just about any other source, and not some TSMC shill.

Even the list of his previous articles shows his extreme bias. Besides giving TSMC a complete free pass.

Not sure why anyone even reads that rubbish. Unless they hope it to be so.
 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
A bit off topic, but I'm thrilled that Sony's out of the PC market. What terrible laptops.

Sony have been on a failpath for a long time. PS3 lost huge amounts of money, TV division, PC etc. Seems only the smartphone part is good, but for how long.



-28% and unrelated to anything PC.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
136
Yes there could be 1 quarter delay compared to 22nm and 32nm but seeing how TSMC is struggling with 20nm (probably 3 years from 28nm to 20nm) it shouldn't surprise anyone that the timeframe is increasing from shrink to shrink.

First TSMC 28nm product(FPGA) was released in Q4 2011(October), AMD officially released Tahiti(HD7970) in January 2012.
First TSMC 20nm products will be released this quarter (Q1 2014). That make it 28 months (February) or 29 months if they will release in March 2014.
 

Homeles

Platinum Member
Dec 9, 2011
2,580
0
0
Even the list of his previous articles shows his extreme bias. Besides giving TSMC a complete free pass.

Not sure why anyone even reads that rubbish. Unless they hope it to be so.
He actually is banned from our forums, lol.
First TSMC 28nm product(FPGA) was released in Q4 2011(October), AMD officially released Tahiti(HD7970) in January 2012.
First TSMC 20nm products will be released this quarter (Q1 2014). That make it 28 months (February) or 29 months if they will release in March 2014.
Yeah, I wouldn't call TSMC 20nm "struggling." Just slow to market.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
136
He was confirmed the last time by Intel CEO himself. He may be biased towards some other company or not , but what we care about is the information and if his source is correct again.
 

OCGuy

Lifer
Jul 12, 2000
27,224
36
91
He actually is banned from our forums, lol.

Yeah, I wouldn't call TSMC 20nm "struggling." Just slow to market.

Their 20nm is certainly struggling....they are bringing up the 16nm FinFET out as quickly as possibly behind it, with the first 16nm products slated to hit shelves at the end of the year.
 

bullzz

Senior member
Jul 12, 2013
405
23
81
@OCGuy - i am surprised india market is not growing. like china it is a huge market with a lot of first time laptop buyers. i think the marketing teams are just sleeping
 

OCGuy

Lifer
Jul 12, 2000
27,224
36
91
@OCGuy - i am surprised india market is not growing. like china it is a huge market with a lot of first time laptop buyers. i think the marketing teams are just sleeping

It is growing, just in a different segment.

This is in stark contrast to tablet and smartphone market. In India, 2.66 million tablets were sold in 2012 and while the final figures for 2013 are still not out, IDC is expecting it to be around 6 million. Also, in Q3 2013, around 12.8 million smartphone -- including those with large screens -- were sold in India, registering a year-on-year growth of 229%.
 

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
3,899
193
106
Intel is finally going to slow down the train, I am assuming. Between SB/IB/HW being more than "good enough" for basically everything, causing even enthusiasts to question the need to upgrade, the increasing costs of developing each new process, as well as the global outlook for PCs, predictable "tick tock" is dead.
They're not slowing down the train, according to them, they're speeding up the train (as in: improving density and reducing cost/transistor even more than at the current pace). Also, the desktop market has probably bottomed.

Fab 42 wasn't meant to be empty. Sony just ended VAIO as we know it. Global PC sales are on a 6-quarter decline streak. Today's headline from an "emerging" BRICs market:
Intel couldn't know that 3 years ago. According to Intel, this isn't very strange in Intel's history. Fab 42 is also ready for 450mm wafer, so it'll be useful anyway in some point in the future, because the 300mm fabs will become useless.
 

OCGuy

Lifer
Jul 12, 2000
27,224
36
91
They're not slowing down the train, according to them, they're speeding up the train (as in: improving density and reducing cost/transistor even more than at the current pace). Also, the desktop market has probably bottomed.

Watch what is being done, not what is being said



Intel isn’t alone in trimming its workforce, although its expected number of job cuts pales in comparison to Hewlett-Packard’s (HPQ) in-progress 34,000-position shedding. Still, Intel's planned layoff is nearly three times the size of IBM’s (IBM) 1,700 employee furlough last year. For its part, newly private Dell is said to be mulling laying off thousands of sales and marketing personnel worldwide—a number that could run to 9,000 people, according to some reports.

http://thevarguy.com/business-techn...tel-plans-cut-global-workforce-5-percent-2014
 

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
3,899
193
106
Intel already said that it aren't real layoffs: “This is not a layoff. It’s not a giant, one time action. This is a target employment rate for the end of the year.”
 

OCGuy

Lifer
Jul 12, 2000
27,224
36
91
Intel already said that it aren't real layoffs: “This is not a layoff. It’s not a giant, one time action. This is a target employment rate for the end of the year.”

Oh thank goodness, they clarified that a 5% reduction in workforce doesn't involve real layoffs. Cutting through corporate euphemisms is fairly easy.

On the desktop market, they are competing only with themselves. Nothing on this roadmap would make me want to move on from 22nm if I was an Intel shareholder or executive whose bonus structure is based off of earnings, not new shiny benchmarks:

 

ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
Their 20nm is certainly struggling....they are bringing up the 16nm FinFET out as quickly as possibly behind it, with the first 16nm products slated to hit shelves at the end of the year.

20nm with finfets
 
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