(Semiwiki) Intel 14nm Delayed Again?

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witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
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And I actually believe TSMC, partially. Intel clumsily ignored the small but still existent density improvements coming with 16FF/14XM.

16nm has exactly 0 density improvements. The node you're referring to is what TSMC calls 16nm FinFET Plus.
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
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16nm has exactly 0 density improvements. The node you're referring to is what TSMC calls 16nm FinFET Plus.

So to be fair, shouldn't Intel have included 16nm FinFET Plus in the diagram instead of, or in addition to, 16 nm FinFET?
 

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
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So to be fair, shouldn't Intel have included 16nm FinFET Plus in the diagram instead of, or in addition to, 16 nm FinFET?

It depends. Will 16nm Plus be available at the same time of regular 16nm? I think not because it wouldn't make sense to make 2 versions of the same node. Why would you want 16nm if 16nm+ is simply better?

So I don't think Intel should have included that third version of the 20nm node. 16nm+ will compete against 10nm anyway, so the graph how Intel made it made their point clear, which is ultimately the goal of every company, to make things look as good as possible.
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
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It depends. Will 16nm Plus be available at the same time of regular 16nm? I think not because it wouldn't make sense to make 2 versions of the same node. Why would you want 16nm if 16nm+ is simply better?

So I don't think Intel should have included that third version of the 20nm node. 16nm+ will compete against 10nm anyway, so the graph how Intel made it made their point clear, which is ultimately the goal of every company, to make things look as good as possible.

But they should have included 16 nm FF Plus at the point on the timeline when it is expected to be available, right?

Also, are you saying TSMC 16 nm FF Plus will not be available until Intel has 10 nm available?
 

Khato

Golden Member
Jul 15, 2001
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Query - when did TSMC first start talking about their 16nm FinFET Plus? Wasn't it at their Q4 2013 earnings and made in response to Intel's claims? If so, how exactly was Intel supposed to have it on their chart when it may well have not even been in existence at the time?
 

jdubs03

Senior member
Oct 1, 2013
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Query - when did TSMC first start talking about their 16nm FinFET Plus? Wasn't it at their Q4 2013 earnings and made in response to Intel's claims? If so, how exactly was Intel supposed to have it on their chart when it may well have not even been in existence at the time?

I believe that the Q3 conference call was the first time 16nm+ was referred to. There were a couple references to it in the transcript, offering a 15% improvement over 16nm. But yea you have a point, Intel likely wouldn't have know about 16+ so the inclusion of that chart would've been impossible.
 

hans007

Lifer
Feb 1, 2000
20,212
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Considering there still aren't any Intel Android tablets out there, that's not happening.


actually...
samsung galaxy tab 3 10"
and asus memopad 10"
and one of the dell venue tabs are intel android. but its not a lot of tablets. but those are some of the bigger names.
 

Khato

Golden Member
Jul 15, 2001
1,225
281
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I believe that the Q3 conference call was the first time 16nm+ was referred to. There were a couple references to it in the transcript, offering a 15% improvement over 16nm. But yea you have a point, Intel likely wouldn't have know about 16+ so the inclusion of that chart would've been impossible.

Mind pointing them out? Since I see nothing in the Q3 transcript referencing a 16 FinFET Plus, just plain old 16 FinFET - http://seekingalpha.com/article/175...-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

About the only part that touches on how density would compare implies that it's less than the cost adder of the FinFET transistors for them, but that doesn't really say much as we have no idea how much the FinFET cost adder is.

Q:And then actually, for Lora, you were talking about the unit cost at 20-nanometer is pretty competitive to a 28, even though depreciation has gone up by 20% plus but unit cost is competitive. What about the 16-nanometer? Would the unit cost actually go down because 16-nanometer is a true shrink compared to 20-nanometer?

Q Clarification: I think Mehdi's question is, he wants us to comment on the unit cost between 20-nanometer and 16-nanometer, unit costs of 20-nanometer and 16-nanometer.

A: Well, unit cost of 16-nanometer is projected to be higher than unit cost of 20-nanometer.
 

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
3,899
193
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But they should have included 16 nm FF Plus at the point on the timeline when it is expected to be available, right?
I don't think you have a lot of obligations when you're making marketing slides... For consumers, Intel's claimed advantage of 35% will indeed shrink when the Plus version is used. But the majority of 14nm will compete against 20nm anyway.

Also, are you saying TSMC 16 nm FF Plus will not be available until Intel has 10 nm available?
No. That's just an assumption I made based on common logic, with the information that is available (I think you can compare this to Snapdragon 600/800; the better version will come a bit later).

If 10nm will be available in Q2 '16 (=volume production in Q4'15), and 16nm (products) will be launched at the start of 2016, and the Plus version won't be used immediately, than 16nm FF Plus will indeed compete against Intel's 10nm.
 

Khato

Golden Member
Jul 15, 2001
1,225
281
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My mistake I meant Q4 conference call.

No problem. My personal opinion is that TSMC's 16 FinFET Plus came into existence on the roadmap shortly after November 21st of 2013. aka, after Intel gave their first hint as to how large a jump in density they're getting out of 14nm TSMC went to the drawing board as to how they could respond and came back with a tweaked version of their 16 FinFET process.

Whether or not there actually ends up being that much difference between the 16 FinFET and 16 FinFET Plus... who knows? Considering that all indications are that it's the result of playing a PR game with Intel I don't expect that it'll actually be that different.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
3,361
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Do people realize that the Intel and TSMC slides are a Logarithmic scale ???

A logarithmic scale is a scale of measurement that displays the value of a physical quantity using intervals corresponding to orders of magnitude, rather than a standard linear scale. The function of the curve may include an exponent which is what gives it its curved nature.
A simple example is a chart whose vertical or horizontal axis has equally spaced increments that are labeled 1, 10, 100, 1000, instead of 0, 1, 2, 3. Each unit increase on the logarithmic scale thus represents an exponential increase in the underlying quantity for the given base (10, in this case).
 

TuxDave

Lifer
Oct 8, 2002
10,572
3
71
Because the same graph in a linear scale will be different. Anyone care to make it in order to see the difference ??

There's a good reason why it's projected in log scale. If it was in linear scale you'd get something along the lines of this:

http://www.wolframalpha.com/share/clip?f=d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427eo8kn6mmh2a


And we'd be somewhere along the right side of the line where you can't see squat even though it's of technical significance.

Compare it with:
http://www.wolframalpha.com/share/clip?f=d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e3h4h7nfram



(I hope those links work)
 
Last edited:

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
3,899
193
106
This seems all very vague. There are rumors for a multiple year delay, Intel denies them, and ASML gives vague answers. But since Intel said they're not going to delay 450mm just 2 days ago, I still think we'll see volume production of 450mm in ~2018, which is at 7nm.
 
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